The Minerva Research Initiativeand its Broad Agency

AnnouncementProgram Overview

September 18, 2012

Erin FitzgeraldVideo conference with Duke University SSRI

and Indiana University

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• Goal: Improve our understanding of the fundamental social, cultural, and political forces that shape regions of the world of strategic importance to the US.– Defense social science basic research uses rigorous methodology to

investigate why and how, versus who or what, for mission-relevant questions such as the cultural context and motivations for violent extremism and contributors to social stability.

– Understanding cultural and political environments will lead to better capabilities in assessing radical actors and trends and anticipating the impact of regime disruptions.

• Initiated by Secretary Gates, now supported by Secretary Panetta– Build cultural and foreign area knowledge and insights to inform more

effective strategic and operational policy decisions by war planners and warfighters.

– Revitalize DoD’s connections w/ humanities & soft sciences with the academic social science community.

What is the Minerva Research Initiative?

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Evolving Minerva Topic Thrusts

FY 12 Topics

Strategic Impacts of Religious and Cultural Changes in the Islamic World

Terrorism and Terrorist Ideologies

Science, Technology, and Military Transformations in China and

Developing States

National Security Implications of Energy and Environmental Stress

New Theories of Cross-Domain Deterrence

Regime and Social Dynamics in Failed, Failing, and Fragile Authoritarian States

FY 13 Topics

Belief Formation and Movements for Change

Models of Stability and Change

New Theories of Power and Deterrence

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Current Minerva efforts: University-Based Basic Research

• FY09 solicitation funded ongoing research efforts• 7 multi-university consortia

$10M/yr total for 5 years, executed by Services• End April 2014

• 18 individuals & small groups for more targeted projects $8M over 3 years, executed by NSF in partnership with OSD and coordinated with DoD managed Minerva projects

• Ended August 2012

• FY12 BAA – 350 white papers yielded 55 full proposals, which yielded 10 awards to begin active work this fall

• FY13 BAA – just released; awards selected by March 2013

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BAA Timeline Ahead

• White Papers Due Date 09/30/2012 3:00 PM• Notification of Initial Evaluations of White Papers:

~10/21/2012• Full Proposals Due Date 12/12/2012 3:00 PM• Notification of Selection for Award ~03/01/2013• Contract Awards ~06/01/2013• Kickoff Meeting ~09/01/2013

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Frequently Asked Questions

See http://minerva.dtic.mil – updated throughout BAA process!

• What is a white paper, and do I have to submit one?• What if a project could fit under more than one topic heading --

how should I apply?• How many institutions should be part of a proposed project to

warrant a large team application?• Are non-profit institutions and commercial entities eligible to

submit proposals to the Minerva BAA?• How many Minerva proposals are expected to be funded from the

current BAA?• Who will make funding decisions and on the basis of what

criteria? How does the Pentagon evaluate applications for funding?

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Budget ahead

• FY 2012 appropriation– $10 M for ongoing research– $3.5 M for Minerva Chairs– $1.5 M + additional funds for new research

• FY 2013 President’s Budget Request– $13.5 M for ongoing research– $4.5 M for Minerva Chairs– $8 M for new university research $26 M total requested

• FY 2013 Congressional Outlook:• $4 M – $8 M for new university research expected

… but nothing will be certain until Congress approves a budget next spring!

• FY 2014• All inaugural Minerva research complete. We hope to continue filling the

pipeline and growing the program.

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QUESTIONS?

minerva@osd.mil

http://minerva.dtic.mil

http://minerva.dtic.mil/doc/MinervaResearchSummaries2011.pdf

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FY09-13 Consortia Efforts

• Study of Innovation and Technology in ChinaLead: UC San Diego

• Mapping the Diffusion and Influence of Counter-Radical Muslim DiscourseLead: Arizona State University

• Iraq’s Wars with the US from the Iraqi PerspectiveLead: Monterey Institute of International Studies

• Terrorism, Governance, and DevelopmentLead: Princeton University

• Emotion and Intergroup RelationsLead: San Francisco State University

• Climate Change and African Political StabilityLead: UT Austin

• Explorations in Cyber International RelationsLead: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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FY09-11 Small Team Efforts

Experimental Analysis of Alternative Models of Conflict Bargaining (University of Virginia, University of Mississippi and SUNY – Binghamton)

Cyber Deterrence: Strategy and the Network Society (King’s College London)

Fighting and Bargaining over Political Power in Weak States (UC-Berkeley)

Behavioral Insights into National Security Issues (UT-Dallas and University of Virginia)

Predicting the Nature of Conflict — An Evolutionary Analysis of the Tactical Choice (Virginia Commonwealth University and Virginia Military Institute)

Status, Manipulating Group Threats, and Conflict Within and Between Groups (University of Guelph and Indiana University)

Mapping Genealogies of Terrorist Organizations (Stanford University)

Modeling Dynamic Violence: Integrating Events, Data Analysis, and Computational Modeling(College of William and Mary, UNC-Charlotte, U of Georgia, Southern Illinois U- Carbondale, and BYU)

Strategies of Violence, Tools of Peace, and Changes in War Termination (Columbia University)

Engaging Intensely Adversarial States: The Strategic Limits and Potential of Public Diplomacy in U.S. National Security Policy (University of Southern California)

How Politics Inside Dictatorships Affects Regime Stability and International Conflict (UCLA and Pennsylvania State University)

Avoiding Water Wars: Environmental Security Through River Treaty Institutionalization (University of Georgia)

The Political Economy of Terrorism and Insurgency – Workshop (UC-San Diego)

Cycles of Repression and Dissent in the Context of Migration, Economic Dependencies, & Social Networking(Ohio State University)

Substantive Expertise, Strategic Analysis and Behavioral Foundations of Terrorism – Workshop (UT-Dallas)

Modeling Discourse and Social Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes (Cornell University, University of Memphis, and UT-Austin)

People, Power, and Conflict in the Eurasian Migration System (Social Science Research Council, U Arizona, Kennan Institute, U Maryland, Moscow State University)

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New FY12 Awards (to begin this fall)

Motivational, Ideological and Social Processes in Political ViolenceLead: University of Maryland

China’s Emerging Capabilities in Energy Technology Innovation and DevelopmentLead: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North AfricaLead: Duke University

Identifying and countering early risk factors for violent extremism among Somali refugee communities resettled in North AmericaLead: Harvard University

Strategic Response to Energy-related Security Threats: University of Vermont

Autocratic Stability During Regime Crises: Lead: Pennsylvania State University

Political Reform, Socio-Religious Change, and Stability in the African SahelLead: U Florida

The Impact of Brazil’s Military-Scientific-Industrial Complex on its Foreign and Defense Policy: Lead: UC San Diego

Terrorist Alliances: Causes, Dynamics, and Consequences Lead: U of Michigan

Quantifying Structural Transformation in China Lead: UC San Diego

FY12 BAA yielded 350 white papers, 53 full proposals, and 10 awards.

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Current Minerva efforts: Minerva Research Fellows at PMEIs

Goals:

• Build in-house expertise in the social sciences at the strategic level across the Services and within the Department

• Enhance connectivity between civilian university-based social science research community and Defense educational institutions.

School Topic

Army War College Beyond Conventional Deterrence

Air University Energy and Climate Change

Marine Corps University Terrorist Orgs & Ideologies

Naval War CollegeIraqi Perspectives;Culture and Strategy

NDU (INSS and NWC)Corruption and Underground Economies; Iraq’s Energy Pursuits

US Air Force AcademyEvolving Strategic Relationships with China

US Military Academy at West Point

Social/ Spatial/Cultural Topologies of African Villages;Differences in Islamic Ideologies

US Naval Academy The Influence of Culture on War

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3 Years Later, Minerva is Meeting Its Program Goals

Context for Analysts“I have personally found that the lessons learned from the Minerva workshops have been invaluable in providing the proper framework and perspective for evaluating China's actions.” Li Shen, Army Operations Group, U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command

Strategic planning value“This Minerva information will be helpful to our staff as we determine where our own opportunities and challenges lie in engaging with the PLA S&T community and China's S&T community writ large.” Kenneth Bruner, S&T Advisor, PACOM

“Minerva is a vital program, and I’d like to see it expand.”

LTG Michael Flynn, Assistant DNI

“Minerva and similar research supports multiple phases of military operations and may lead to alternatives to future combat operations that put so many American lives at risk.”LTG Robert Elder (ret), Sr Advisor, Air Combat Command Chief Scientist

Operational value“Our unit [is] becoming more analytical and

dynamic in how to stabilize populations without relying on money because your [Minerva]

works have pointed out indicators that, if done improperly, aid can be counter-productive.”

Capt. A.J. Potter, USMC, 3rd Civil Affairs Group

“The quality and impact of [CAAT] support to

COMISAF and the ISAF mission were greatly

enhanced by the timely and much needed

contributions from our Minerva sponsored team.”

COL. Joe Felter, fmr Commander ISAF CAAT

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Minerva Insights and Defense Connections

• Evaluated the effect on future violence of civilian casualties by ISAF and insurgents.

Briefed to CJCS ADM Mullen and COMISAF GEN McChrystal in March 2010

• Developed a metric empirically characterizing tribal coherence which, with other factors, appears to be a predictor of the susceptibility of tribal entities to Al Qaida influence in Africa.Briefed at December 2010 joint workshop with SOCOM resulting in operational recommendations.

• Elicited innovation drivers and key trends in the Chinese defense economy based on open source Chinese documents and interviews, helping to better understand the reform and the pace of modernization in China’s defense industry.Briefed and concepts shared with ADM Robert Willard, Commander, PACOM in December 2011.

• Built and publicly released a database on African social conflict related to environmental drivers, economic downturns, food security, elections, ethnic tensions, and other issues below national armed conflict levels (e.g., strikes, labor unrest). Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) released March 2011 and shared with AFRICOM J2.

• Learned small-scale reconstruction projects are violence reducing; large-scale are not.Cited, with three other team findings, in Senate Foreign Relations committee report 112–21 on Evaluating U.S. Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan