the mexico city air quality case study
TRANSCRIPT
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The Mexico City Air Quality Case Study
Mario J. Molina and Luisa T. MolinaMassachusetts Institute of Technology
IUAPPA-IPURGAPReducing the Impact of Vehicles
On Air and Environmental Quality in CitiesJanuary 22-23, 2004
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Topographical Map of the MCMA•Population Growth
>17.5 million (1999): 20-fold increase since 1900Growth projection to 25 million (2010)
• Urban Sprawl>1500 km2 (1999): 10-fold increase since 1960>Expansion to peripheral areas
• Geographic and Topographical Conditions
>High altitude (2240m): less efficient combustion processes>Mountains are a physical barrier for winds>2nd largest mega-city in the world>Temperature inversions in the dry season
• Increases in Emissions Sources
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Expansion of the MCMA
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Lead (g/m3)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Ann. avg.
95 Perc
Annual standard
SO2 (ppb)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Daily 95%Daily 50%Ann. avg.
24-hr. standard
Annual standard
CO (ppm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
8-hr. 95%8-hr. 50%Ann. avg.
8-hr. standard
Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA(averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)
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Ozone (ppb)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
1-hr. 95%1-hr. 50%Ann. avg.
1-hr. standard
PM10 (g/m3) at manual
0
40
80
120
160
200
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Ann. avg.
Annual standard
Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA(averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)
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Integrated Program on Urban, Regional and Global Air Pollution: Mexico City Case Study
(Mexico City Air Quality Program)
Objective:
Provide objective, balanced assessments of the causes and alternative cost-effective solutions to urban, regional and global air pollution problems through quality scientific, technological, social and economic analysis in the face of incomplete data and uncertainty
- Use Mexico City as the initial case study- Develop an approach that applies globally- Build on strong base of ongoing basic
research
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Ecosystem Impact Model
(Agriculture, Water, Climate Change, etc.)
Health Effects/Impacts
Models(Damage Functions, Productivity Losses, etc.)
Meteorological Model
Gas-Particulate Photochemical
Model
Ecosystem Science
Health Effects Science
Atmospheric Science
Policy Development & Implementation
Behavior and Emissions
<< Integrated Science & Economic Impact >> << Policy & Mitigation >>
Demographic & Health Statistics
Ecosystem Data
Atmospheric Data
Emissions &
Area / Point / Mobile
Reduction Costs
Hous
ehol
d/
Com
mer
cial
Ener
gy S
uppl
y /In
dust
ry
Tran
spor
tatio
n M
odel
(s)
( Response Strategies / Scenarios )
A Framework for Integrated Assessment
Economic Costs of Human Impacts
Economic Costs of Ecosystem
Damages
Policy & Other Recommendations
(Institutional & Social Factors / Stakeholder Education & Outreach)
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Mexican ParticipantsUniversidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM)Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP)Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX)Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)Universidad de las Americas, Puebla (UDLA)Universidad Iberoamericana (UIA)Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM)Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT)Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE); Centro Nacional de Investigación y Capacitación Ambiental (CENICA)Gobierno del Distrito Federal (GDF); Secretaria de Medio Ambiente (SMA)Gobierno del Estado de México, Secretaria de Ecología (SEGEM)Secretaría de Salud (SS)Insituto Nacional de Salud Pública (INSP)
US ParticipantsMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Washington State University (WSU)Montana State University (MSU)University of Colorado at Boulder (UC)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)Aerodyne Research Inc. (ARI)Department of Energy/Atmospheric Science Program (DOE/ASP)Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)Colorado State University (CSU)Pennsylvania State University (PSU)National Science Foundation (NSF)University of California at Riverside (UCR)National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
European ParticipantsChalmers University, SwedenETH-ZurichEcole Polytechnique Federal de LausanneUniversity of HeidelbergFree University of Berlin
Collaborative Research and Education Program
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Summary of the First Phase of the Mexico City Air Quality Program
Chapter 1. Air Quality Impacts: A Global and Local ConcernsChapter 2. Cleaning the Air: A Comparative Overview Chapter 3. Forces Driving Pollutant Emissions in the MCMAChapter 4. Health Benefits of Air Pollution ControlChapter 5. Air Pollution Science in the MCMA: Understanding Source-Receptor Relationships Through Emissions Inventories, Measurements and ModelingChapter 6. The MCMA Transportation System: Mobility and Air PollutionChapter 7. Key Findings and Recommendations
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NOx Emissions (1998)
35%
19%11%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
8%4%
1%Heavy Diesel TruckPrivate automobileHeavy Gasoline TruckVegetacionTaxiBusesElectricity GenerationCombis/MicrosOther IndustryServicesOther Transport
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PM10 Emissions (1998)
40%
33%
4%
4%
3%
12%
2%
2%
Soil Erosion
Heavy Diesel Truck
Private automobile
Buses
Metallic Minerals
Other Industry
Other Transport
Services
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Estimates of mortality impacts from particulate matter, drawn from time-series studies
worldwide and in Mexico City
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
% c
hang
e in
dai
ly m
orta
lity/
10 u
g/m
3 incr
ease
in P
M10
Pooled worldwideestimate
- - - - - - - - - Worldwide literature - - - - - - -
Mexico City studies
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Estimated Health Benefits of a 10% Reduction of Pollution Levels in the MCMA
PM10 Background Rate (case-persons-yr)
Risk Coefficient(% per 10µg/m3)
Risk Reduction (cases/yr)
Cohort Mortality 10/1000 3 2000
Time Series Mortality 5/1000 1 1000
Chronic Bronchitis 14/1000 10 10 000
Ozone Background Rate (case-persons-yr)
Risk Coefficient (% per 10µg/m3)
Risk Reduction (cases/yr)
Time Series Mortality
5/1000 0.5 300
Minor Restricted Activity Days 8000/1000 1.0 2,000,000
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Focus of the Second Phase of the Mexico City Air Quality Program
Systematic development of scientific information, evaluation methodologies and simulation tools in the following areas:
activities that lead to the generation of pollutants in the MCMA
(transportation, production of goods and services, degradation of the natural environment, etc.);
dispersion and transformation of atmospheric pollutants
(focus on ozone and particles); evaluation of risks and the effects of pollutants on the population; cost-benefit analysis of control strategies; integrated assessment of policy options and priorities for control strategies; strategies for capacity building.
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Emission inventories:What are the sources of NH3? HCHO? What are their emissions rates?
Are hydrocarbon emissions underestimated? Are NOx emissions overestimated?Are there significant biogenic emissions, e.g., terpenes?
Chemistry: transformation of emissions in the atmosphereHow is the reduction in NOx and/or HC related to reduction in O3 and PM?
Would reductions in NOx lead to a reduction in nitrate particulates?
What is the impact of reducing ammonia?How much HCHO is primary vs. secondary (produced photochemically)?
What is the partitioning of NOy (NOx, HNO3, organic nitrates)?
What are the sources and the chemical composition of the fine PM?
MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign Science Questions
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MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign Science Questions (cont)
Meteorology:What is the height of the mixing layer?How does it evolve with time?Is there any “carry over” of pollutants from one day to the next?Do the models satisfactorily predict wind speeds and directions?
Urban-Regional-Global Chemical Transformation:What are the effective source terms for emissions for global climate models?What are the roles of aerosols in modifying the local/regional radiative transfer processes and cloud properties?
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Ozone with 1-4 x HC emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour
Ozo
ne (p
pb)
RAMA1xHC2xHC3xHC4xHC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 4 8 12 16 20 24Hour
Ozo
ne (p
pb)
RAMA1xHC2xHC3xHC4xHC
Mar. 2, 1997 Mar. 14, 1997
Ozone concentrations are average of all measurement sites.
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MCMA-2003 Field CampaignSupersite Instrumentation
Instrumentation: CENICA - monitoring station, tethered balloon RAMA - monitoring station WSU – VOC sampling DOE/ PNNL – PTRMS, single particle sampler/analyzer, MFRSBR, RSR UCB/LBL – Particle sampling apparatus DOE/Argonne National Lab – PAN, black carbon, olefins, NH3 Colorado U. – AMS Penn State – OH and HO2 IMP – MINIVOLS and MOUDI , aldehyde cartridges MIT/U. Heidelberg - DOAS MIT/ Free U. Berlin – LIDAR MIT – PAHs UCR – nitro-PAHs, PAHs EPFL - LIDAR UNAM – FTIR Chalmers – FTIR, DOAS Plus others
Supersite Location: CENICA (UAM-Ixtapalapa)
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East South South-West
Radiation:• Spectrometry Actinic photon flux (incl. straylight) -> any J-value• Filterradiometry J(NO2)
MIT/IUP DOAS equipment on Cenica Roof-top (Hut)
DOAS-2L= 4420mH= 70m
• HONO, HCHO, O3• NO2, (NO3)• SO2• Glyoxal
DOAS-1L= 960mH= 16m
• BTX, Styrene• Benzaldehyde, Phenol• Naphtalene• NO2, HONO• HCHO, O3, SO2
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Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) at CENICA
100% transmission (60-600 nm), aerodynamic sizing, linear mass signal.• Jayne et al., Aerosol Science and Technology 33:1-2(49-70), 2000.• Jimenez et al., J. Geophys. Res.- Atmospheres, 108(D7), 8425, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD001213, 2003.
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Aerosol measurements (April 15-17, 2003)35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PM
1.0
Mas
s C
once
ntra
tion
(g
m-3
)
12:00 AM4/15/2003
12:00 PM 12:00 AM4/16/2003
12:00 PM 12:00 AM4/17/2003
12:00 PM
Nitrate Sulphate Water Ammonium Organics PAH Chloride
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ChaseDetailed mobile source emissions characterizationPlume tracer flux measurements
Mobile Sampling/MappingMotor vehicle pollution emission ratiosLarge source plume identificationAmbient background pollution distributions
Stationary SamplingHigh time resolution point samplingQuality Assurance for conventional air monitoring sites
Mobile Laboratory Modes of OperationFebruary 2002
Chalco
Teotihuacan
Tula
Ajusco
CENICA
Cuautitlan
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Formaldehyde Measurements February 2002
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Environmental Education and Outreach Visiting Mexican scholars at MIT Workshops/symposia on air quality Professional development courses on air quality for mid-career
personnel in the government, industry and academic sectors as well as non-governmental organizations and the media
Masters Program in Environment and Health Management at MIT and Harvard School of Public Health (INE-MIT-Harvard joint program)
Exchange program between MIT and Mexican institutions Establish the Research and Development Network on Air
Quality in Large Cities in Mexico Web-based activities for senior high school teachers and
students (with Monterrey Tech, ITESM)
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MIT Scenario AnalysisIntegrating Bottom-Up and top-Down Analytic Approaches
Three Feasibility “Screens”– Technical Feasibility (effective)– Economic Feasibility (affordable)
•Pursued through quantitative analysis– Political Feasibility (implementable)
•Pursued through qualitative dialogue
“Feasibility” depends in part upon the “Future Story”
•Allows us to identify more robust options
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A Diverse Mix of Emissions/Sources
Source: CAM 1998 MCMA Emissions Inventory
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Increase in Automobiles per Capita in Mexico City
Motorization Index in the MCMA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Number of MotorVehicles perthousandinhabitants
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Collaborative Activities with Latin American Cities
Air quality forecasting training workshops (with Santiago de Chile and São Paulo)
Transportation/land use and atmospheric modeling and measurements (with Santiago de Chile and other Latin American cities)
Inter-American Network for Atmosphere and Biosphere Studies (IANABIS)
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Fleet composition and operations
Provide incentives to increase the turnover rate of the trucks, taxis, colectivos, and private auto fleets.
Enforce existing regulations on maximum age of taxis and colectivos
Develop incentives to encourage retrofitting of trucks with emission control devices.
Continue audits of Vehicle Verification Testing Stations using on-road test data, and correct irregularities
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Public transportation • Give priority to the organization of the transportation system at the metropolitan level, including the improvement and coordination of all the current modes of transport.
• Increase the use of the metro system by improving service quality, performance, and personal security.
• Facilitate inter-modal transfers to improve convenience and speed of public transport.
• Important origins and strategic destinations should be considered in the planning for the proposed expansion of the metro network.
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Infrastructure/Technology
• Develop infrastructure to enable intercity truck traffic to bypass the downtown core in order to improve air quality and reduce congestion.
• Evaluate the feasibility of implementing Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to improve traffic management and thereby reducing pollution.
• Consider alternative transportation pricing policies, enabled by ITS, to reduce the volume of traffic and pollution.
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Fuels
• Establish new specifications with lower sulfur content in gasoline and diesel that enable the introduction of future cleaner vehicle technologies.
• Develop natural gas as a potential transportation fuel for urban buses and intra-urban trucks
• Prohibit illegal vehicle conversions to run on LPG without adequate emission controls
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Recommendations (short term)• Improve Data
– Establish reliable registration database.
– Improve trip data.– Update traffic
accounting data.– Use remote sensing and
tunnel tests to improve emission inventory.
– Make emission and vehicle data publicly available for new and used vehicles.
• Improve enforcement– Taxis < 6 years old (DF),
<10 years old (EM).– Microbuses <7 years old– Registration and license
plates.– Centralize VVP
database.– VVP certificates up to
date/not counterfeit.– Increase audits &
evaluations of VVP.– Traffic regulations.
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Recommendations (medium term)
• Control Vehicle Demand– Limit private vehicle
use.– Restrict taxi numbers
through a permitting process.
– Regulate colectivo’s, but encourage their continuation.
– Create ‘no private vehicle’ areas in DF.
– Discourage single passenger trips.
• Upgrade the Fleet– Registration fees less
age sensitive.– Tighten VVP emission
standards for older vehicles and inspect trucks (NOx, PM, PAH)
– Require vehicle retrofit (gasoline and diesel).
– Upgrade bus fleet.– Acquire USA standards at
only two year delay.– Lower sulfur (gasoline
and diesel).
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Recommendations (long term)
• Land Use Planning– Establish a regional
planning commission with authorities & financial independence like SCAQMD.
– Generate a long term plan that is consistent with high mobility and low pollution.
– Enforce sanctity of land reserves.
– Develop and use a mobility/land use tool for planning.
• Public Transport– Integrate colectivos with
public transport.– Promote multi-mode
transport fares.– Encourage park & ride.– Improve security and
safety on public transport and in park & ride lots.
– Give traffic preference to public transport and multi-person vehicles (dedicated lanes, etc.)