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Improving Air Quality through Greenhouse Gas Control and Co-Benefits Measures in Mexico
Nairobi, Kenia
November, 2006
Content
IES-Mexico Projects
Co_control of Urban Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases in Mexico City (2002)
The Local Benefits of Global Air Pollution Control in Mexico City (2003)
Analysis of Mexico City’s Bus Rapid Transit System (2004-2005)
National Level Study of the Co-Benefits of Emissions Control Measures (2006-2007)
Other measures analyzed using the IES methodology
Low sulfur fuels
The Local Benefits of Global Air Pollution Control in Mexico City (2003)
Motivation
20 million inhabitants3.5 million vehicles35,000 IndustriesMexico City consumes more than 40 million liters of fuel each daySerious air quality problemsIn 2002 80% of the days of the year exceeded the ozone standardsIn 1998 Mexico City was ranked as the 13th largest GHG production nation.Mexico City emits approximately 13% of the national total.
Objectives
Estimate cost savings from health improvements related to air pollution reductions occurring simultaneously with GHG
Compare cost and benefits for the specific policy measures analyzed
Build capacity in Mexico for integrated, quantitative environmental and economic assessment
Develop a policy-relevant analysis tool with explicit treatment of uncertainty
Control Measures
Evaluation of five control measures 2003-2020:
Transportation1. Taxi fleet renovation2. Metro expansion3. Hybrid buses introduction
Industry4. Co-generation
Residential5. Home stoves LPG leaks
Framework
Costs
GHG EmissionsLocal Emissions
Concentrations, Exposures
Mortality and Morbidity
Monetary Benefits
Benefit/GHG Cost/Benefit Net Benefits
Air Quality
Health Impacts
Valuation
Cost and Emissions
Methodology
Analysis of Measures– Change in emissions and costs for 5 control measures– Annualized results for 2003-2020, 5% discount
Air Quality – Reduced-form models derived from field measurements
(PM) and photochemical models (Ozone)
Health Impacts– Concentration-response methodology for 19 impacts
Economic Valuation– Willingness to pay, cost of illness and productivity loss
Taxi Fleet Renovation
Approximately 115,680 taxis circulating in the MCMA– Fleet average age - 9 years old– 4% of the vehicle fleet– 11% of activity (200 km/day)– 11.5% of SO2, 10.7% of CO,
10.2% of NOx and 14% of VOCs
Measure80,000 vehicles replaced by 2010 Fuel efficiency increases: 6.7 to 9 km/lCompliance with Tier I standards
Metro Expansion
Over 200 km of metro lines in the cityPopulation growth and sprawl -> increased demand, especially in the northMetro accounts for roughly 14% of all trips
MeasureConstruction of 76 km– Extension of 4,5,7,8,9– Construction of 12 and 13
Metro ridership to replace micros35 million dollars/km
Hybrid Buses
Over 25,000 diesel buses in the MCMA– ~7% of trips– 15% of PM2.5 emissions
In PROAIRE – plan to replace diesel buses with natural gas buses
MeasureReplace over 1000 diesel buses with hybridsEmissions factors are for Orion-LMCS VI Hybrid buses for New York City
Results (1)
The combination of these 5 measures will substantially reduce emissions of local air pollutants, as well as GHGs.
1% reductions of annual exposure to PM10
3% reductions of annual exposure to O3
2% reduction of GHG emissions (400,000 ton C equivalent) per year
Monetized benefits are estimated to be $210 million USD per year
Total annualized cost is less than 30% of the estimated benefits ($50 million USD)
Results (2)
Public Health Benefits:$210 million USD/year
Cost of implementation:$50 Million USD/year
Net benefits:$160 Million USD/Year
Evaluation of five control measures 2003-2020
Implementation of Taxi Fleet Renovation Measure
Approximately 115,680 taxis circulating in the MCMA
Measure
80,000 vehicles replaced by 2010
Fuel efficiency increases: 6.7 to 9 km/l
Compliance with Tier I standards
Implementation Mechanism
Law that establishes the maximum age of 10 years for vehicles used as Taxi.
Local government gives an allowance of almost 1,500 USD to get a new unit
24,000 vehicles replaced (2002- 2005)
Responsible Institutions:
•Secretaría del Medio Ambientedel Gobierno del Distrito Federal
•Nacional Financiera
•Grupo Financiero Banorte
•Secretaría de DesarrolloEconómico
•Secretaría de Transporte y Vialidad
Analysis of Mexico City’s Bus Rapid Transit System
Emissions from mobile sources in MCMA, 2002Inventario de Emisiones de la ZMVM, 2002
Fuentes puntualesFuentes de áreaFuentes móvilesVegetación y suelos
71%
23%5%1%
Motivation:
Modal distribution of transport in the MCMA
CO2 emission by sector in the MCMA, 2005
Source: SMA-GDF, 2005
Analysis of Mexico City’s Bus Rapid Transit System
Problems with the current public transport system
Continuous stops – road chaos
Passengers pay the driver onboard –prolonged stops
Competition between microbuses
Low average speed (i.e.. 12km/h –Insurgentes)
Low efficiency buses
Poor maintenance of buses
High emissions
BRT System (Metrobus): An option for public transport at MCMA
A BRT system operates in a confined lane
Passengers pay prior to boarding at boarding stations
Predetermined stops
Higher average speed than traditional bus system
High capacity buses
Higher fuel efficiency buses
Metrobus Insurgentes
Metrobús began operations on Insurgentes avenue in Mexico City in July, 2005.This avenue has a transportation demand of 250,000 passengers per day
Corridor extension: 19.4 km. Includes 34 boarding stations.
80 articulated buses (160 passengers) with environmental certification equivalent to Euro-III standard.
If Metrobús is successful, city officials have indicated intentions to expand the Metrobús into a system of thirty-three corridors throughout the metropolitan area
Objective of this study
Conduct a detailed analysis of the health benefits and the cost of a bus rapid system in Mexico City for the period 2005-2015.
Decision toBuild
Metrobus
Costs Change inEmissions
Change inTravelTimes
Change inExposure
Change inPopulation
Health
Value ofHealthBenefits
Benefit-Cost
Comparison
Value ofTime Saved
Greenhouse Benefits
Analysis framework
Results
Emission reductions per year144 tons of THC690 tons of NOx2.8 tons of fine Particulate Matter1.3 tons of SO2
Avoided health impacts per year:6,100 work loss days660 restricted activity days12 new cases of chronic bronchitis3 premature deathsThese health benefits provide $3 million USD benefits per year
Travel time benefits per yearSave over 2 million hours during peak hour ($1.3 million USD)
Cost of the Metrobús (infrastructure, vehicles, etc) was over 44 million USD
Metrobus corridor expects to eliminate 280,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions
Net Present Benefits$12.3 Million USD
Future Work:National Level Study of the Co-benefits of Emission
Control Measures
Motivation:
Nearly 65 million Mexicans live in urban areas, of which 27 million live in cities with insufficient air quality.
Mexican environmental authorities have been developing emission control measures with local, regional or national impact but rarely estimate the potential impacts of these measures.
Analytical tools are needed at the national level to support the decision making process.
Metropolitan Area Inhabitants Days above Standard
Valle de México 17,942,172 316Guadalajara 3,677,531 106Monterrey 3,243,466 78Tijuana 1,274,240 9Juárez 1,187,275 27Toluca 1,151,651 77Mexicali 549,873 123TOTAL 26,564,693
Future Work:National Level Study of the Co-benefits of
Emission Control Measures
Objectives:
Stage IDevelop a modeling tool to evaluate the potential impacts of emission control standards on Mexican air quality, which includes both primary and secondary pollutants.Develop institutional capacity to apply air quality models.
Stage II
Evaluate the potential co-benefits of different emission control measures at the national level.
Other measures analyzed using the IES methodology:
Low Sulfur FuelsMotivation:
27 million Mexicans live in cities with insufficient air quality.
Mobile sources are the most significant emitters of air pollutants
Significant growth in the Mexican vehicular fleet is expected over the next 15 years
In 2005 the Official Standard “NOM-042-SEMARNAT-2003” which requires the adoption on Tier 2 Technology for new vehicles was published
In 2005, the fuel quality standard NOM-086-SEMARNAT-SENER-SCFI-2005 was under review
Due to the high costs and investment required to produce low sulfur fuels the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit as well as the Presidential Office of Public Policy requested that INE and PEMEX conduct a complete cost-benefit analysis of the standard
Sulfur in gasoline 80 ppm 300 ppm 1000 ppm
Tier 2 Tier 1 Tier 01.31 g/km0.03 g/km0.04 g/km
192,000 km
2.11 g/km0.16 g/km0.25 g/km
160,000 km
Emissions COHCNM
NOxDurability
2.11 g/km0.21 g/km0.63 g/km80,000 km
Other measures analyzed using the IES methodology:Low Sulfur Fuels
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Benefits of Low Sulfur Fuels at the National Level (2006-2030)
Introduction of low sulfur fuels together with the best control emission technologies available (Tier II and EPA 2007/2010), would avoid:
56,000 premature death
166,000 new cases of chronic bronchitis
5.6 million work loss days
78.4 million restricted activity days
Monetized Benefits: 11,373 Million USD
Cost: 4,683 Million USD
Responsible: PEMEX
Calendar to Introduce Low Sulfur Fuels in Mexico
Source: NOM-086-SEMARNAT-SENER-SCFI-2005
For Further Information
Website:http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/co
beneficios.html
Email:[email protected]@ine.gob.mx