the market and economy i 2017 · dollar, canadian dollar, japanese yen and swiss franc. *1q17...
TRANSCRIPT
THE MARKET AND ECONOMY IN
2017:MID YEAR UPDATE
Keith P. Aleardi, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
717-834-8473
2
-6%
4%
14%
24%
34%
44%
54%
0 8 16 24 32 400
25
50
75
100
125
1900 1912 1921 1933 1949 1961 1980 2001
Source: BEA, NBER, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Chart assumes current expansion started in July 2009 and continued through June 2017, lasting 96 months so far. Data for length of economic expansions and recessions obtained from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). These data can be found at www.nber.org/cycles/ and reflect information through June 2017.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Length of economic expansions and recessions Strength of economic expansionsCumulative real GDP growth since prior peak, percent
Prior expansion peak
— 4Q48 — 1Q80
— 2Q53 — 3Q81
— 3Q57 — 3Q90
— 2Q60 — 1Q01
— 4Q69 — 4Q07
— 4Q73
Expansions: 47 months
Recessions: 15 months
Average length (months):
96
months*
Eco
no
my
Number of quarters
ECONOMIC EXPANSION
3
Economic growth and the composition of GDP
-$1
$1
$3
$5
$7
$9
$11
$13
$15
$17
$19
$21Real GDP
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter-over-quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of 2009.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Real GDPYear-over-year % change
1Q17
YoY % chg: 2.1%
Components of GDP1Q17 nominal GDP, USD trillions
12.6% Investment ex-housing
69.0% Consumption
17.5% Gov’t spending
3.9% Housing
- 3.0% Net exports
Average:
2.8%
QoQ % chg: 1.4%
Expansion
average:
2.1%
Eco
no
my
US GDP AND ITS COMPONENTS
4
Cyclical sectors
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top left) BEA; (Top and bottom right, bottom left) Census Bureau, FactSet.Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods with a base year of 2009. *May figure is based on May 2017 Advance Report.SA – seasonally adjusted. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Light vehicle salesMillions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Average: 15.6
May 2017:
16.6
May 2017:
1,092
Housing startsThousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Average: 1,310
Real capital goods ordersNon-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft, USD billions, SA
Average: 62.5
May 2017*:
57.8
Manufacturing and trade inventoriesDays of sales, seasonally adjusted
Apr. 2017:
41.7
Eco
no
my
HEALTHY ECONOMY
5
|
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
'55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
1.1%
0.6%0.8%
0.3%0.04%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.3%
0.25%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
'77-'86 '87-'96 '97-'06 '07-'16 '17-'26
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
'57-'66 '67-'76 '77-'86 '87-'96 '97-'06 '07-'16
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top left) Census Bureau, DOD, DOJ; (Top left and right) BLS; (Right and bottom left) BEA.GDP drivers are calculated as the average annualized growth between 4Q of the first and last year. Future working age population is calculated as the total estimated number of Americans from the Census Bureau, controlled for military enrollment, growth in institutionalized population and demographic trends. Growth in working age population does not include illegal immigration; DOD Troop Readiness reports used to estimate percent of population enlisted. *J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Growth in workers
+ Growth in real output per worker
Growth in real GDP
Census
forecast
2016: 1.6%*
1.4%
2.0%
2.1%
1.5%
1.3%
0.4%
2.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 0.9%
4.2%
3.0%
3.3%
3.1%3.2%
1.3%
Growth in working-age populationPercent increase in civilian non-institutional population ages 16-64
Drivers of GDP growthAverage year-over-year percent change
Growth in private non-residential capital stockNon-residential fixed assets, year-over-year % change
Eco
no
my
Immigrant Native born
1.3%
1.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.3%
STUCK IN THE MIDDLE
6
• Tax Reform vs. Tax Cut
• Failure of health care bill suggests wholesale reform of the tax code will face steep odds
• Infrastructure Program
• Proposed $550 billion investment
• Democrats have signaled unwillingness to work with Trump, regardless of issue at hand
• Increase in Defense Spending
• Eliminate defense spending cuts under sequestration, amounting to $40 billion/year increase
6
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FFA
Investment Management
FISCAL POLICY - PROPOSED LEGISLATION
7
7
Source: Tax Foundation, FFA Investment Management
GROWTH IMPACT
8
Unemployment and wages
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Civilian unemployment rate and year-over-year growth in wages of production and non-supervisory workersSeasonally adjusted, percent
50-yr. average: 4.2%
May 2017: 4.3%
Oct. 2009:
10.0%
May 2017:
2.4%
50-yr. average: 6.2%
Wage growth
Unemployment rate
Eco
no
my
NORMALIZED EMPLOYMENT
9
Inflation
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
CPI and core CPI% change vs. prior year, seasonally adjusted
Econo
my
50-yr. avg. May 2017
Headline CPI 4.1% 1.9%
Core CPI 4.1% 1.7%
Food CPI 4.1% 0.9%
Energy CPI 4.3% 5.4%
Headline PCE deflator 3.6% 1.4%
Core PCE deflator 3.5% 1.4%
INFLATION – STILL AN ISSUE
10
S&P 500 Index at inflection points
Characteristic Mar. 2000 Oct. 2007 Jun. 2017
Index level 1,527 1,565 2,423
P/E ratio (fwd.) 27.2x 15.7x 17.5x
Dividend yield 1.1% 1.8% 2.1%
10-yr. Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 2.3%
-49%
Oct. 9, 2002
P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x
777
Mar. 24, 2000
P/E (fwd.) = 27.2x
1,527
Dec. 31, 1996
P/E (fwd.) = 16.0x
741
Jun. 30, 2017
P/E (fwd.) = 17.5x
2,423
+101%
Oct. 9, 2007
P/E (fwd.) = 15.7x
1,565
-57%
Mar. 9, 2009
P/E (fwd.) = 10.3x
677
+258%
+106%
S&P 500 Price Index
Eq
uitie
s
MARKET INFLECTION POINT
11
S&P 500 valuation measures
Source: FactSet, FRB, IBES, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months as provided by IBES since December 1989, and FactSet for June 30, 2017. Average P/E and standard deviations are calculated using 25 years of FactSet history. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-month consensus dividend divided by most recent price. Price to book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to cash flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 25 years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year average due to cash flow data availability.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio
Eq
uiti
es
Current:
17.5x
Valuation
measure Description Latest
25-year
avg.*
Std. dev.
Over-/under-
valued
P/E Forward P/E 17.5x 16.0x 0.5
CAPE Shiller’s P/E 30.1 26.2 0.6
Div. Yield Dividend yield 2.1% 2.0% -0.2
P/B Price to book 2.9 2.9 0.0
P/CF Price to cash flow 12.2 10.6 0.8
EY Spread EY minus Baa yield 1.3% -0.3% -0.8
25-year average: 16.0x
+1 Std. dev.: 19.2x
-1 Std. dev.: 12.8x
US EQUITIES EXPENSIVE BUT NOT OVERVALUED
12
Corporate profits
-5%
-1%
3%
7%
11%
15%
19%
23%
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
-$3.0
-$1.0
$1.0
$3.0
$5.0
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18-$1
$3
$7
$11
$15
$19
$23
$27
$31
$35
'02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17
Source: Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top right) Federal Reserve, S&P 500 individual company 10k filings,S&P Index Alert.EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Earnings estimates are Standard & Poor’s consensus analyst expectations. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Currencies in the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Major Currencies Index are: British pound, euro, Swedish krona, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. *1Q17 earnings are calculated using actual earnings for 98.6% of S&P 500 market cap and earnings estimates for the remaining companies. **Year-over-year change is calculated using the quarterly average for each period. USD forecast assumes no change in the U.S. dollar from its June 30, 2017 level. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
S&P 500 earnings per shareIndex quarterly operating earnings
Energy sector earningsEnergy sector contribution to S&P 500 EPS, quarterly
U.S. dollarYear-over-year % change**, quarterly, USD major currencies index
2Q17:
3.92%
S&P 500 revenues
U.S. 56%
International 44%Eq
uiti
es
Forecast
assumes
no change
in USD
1Q17*:
$28.81
S&P consensus analyst estimates
1Q17*:
$1.17
EARNINGS ON THE RISE AGAIN
13
Source: MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Forward price to earnings ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next twelve months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Dividend yield is calculated as consensus estimates of dividends for the next twelve months, divided by most recent price, as provided by FactSet Market Aggregates.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. and S&P 500 IndexDec. 1996 = 100, U.S. dollar, price return
+106%
+258%
Inte
rnation
al
-62%
-57%
+216%
+101%
-52%
-49%
+48%
+106%
Jun. 30, 2017
P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x
Jun. 30, 2017
P/E (fwd.) = 17.5x
P/E 20 yr. avg. Div. Yield 20 yr. avg.
S&P 500 17.5x 16.0x 2.1% 2.0%
ACWI ex-U.S. 14.1x 14.7x 3.2% 2.9%
INTERNATIONAL OFFERS OPPORTUNITY
14
The Fed and interest rates
1.38%
2.13%
2.94% 3.00%
1.13%1.24%
1.48%1.66%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
'99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20
FOMC June 2017 forecasts
Percent
2017 2018 2019Long
run
Change in real GDP, 4Q to 4Q 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8
Unemployment rate, 4Q 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.6
PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0
Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the June 2017 FOMC meeting. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Federal funds rate expectationsFOMC and market expectations for the fed funds rate
Federal funds rate
FOMC long-run projection
FOMC year-end estimates
Market expectations on 6/14/17
Long
run
Fix
ed
in
co
me
INTEREST RATES ON THE RISE
15
The Federal Reserve balance sheet
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*Balance sheet reduction assumes reduction from current level, beginning October 2017 and lasting four years, concluding in October 2021. Reduction of Treasuries and MBS is per FOMC guidelines from the June 2017 meeting minutes: Treasury securities will be reduced $6 billion per month initially and reduction rate will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until reaching $30 billion per month; MBS will be reduced $4 billion per month initially and reduction rate will increase in steps of $4 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until reaching $20 billion per month; Other assets are reduced in proportion. Forecasts do not take into account months where maturing assets do not exceed the stated cap nor do they consider the reinvestment of principal or interest repayment in excess of the stated cap.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
The Federal Reserve balance sheetUSD trillions
Balance sheet reduction scenario
(current balance sheet = $4.460 trillion)
Beginning
balance ($ trillion)
End balance
($ trillion)
Treasuries $2.465 $1.170
MBS $1.770 $0.929
Treasuries
MBS
Other
Dec. 2008:
QE1 begins
Jun. 2010:
End of QE1;
balance sheet
stands at $2.1T
Oct. 2014:
End of QE3;
balance sheet
stands at $4.5T
Nov. 2010:
QE2 begins
Jun. 2011:
End of QE2;
balance sheet
stands at $2.8T
Sep. 2012:
QE3 begins
Jan. 2014:
Tapering of
purchases begins
Fix
ed
inco
me
Forecasted reduction*
FED FOCUSED LONG TERM
16
Annual returns and intra-year declines
26
-10
1517
1
26
15
2
12
27
-7
26
47
-2
34
20
31
27
20
-10-13
-23
26
9
3
14
4
-38
23
13
0
13
30
11
-1
10 8
-17-18
-17
-7
-13
-8-9
-34
-8 -8
-20
-6 -6 -5
-9
-3
-8
-11
-19
-12
-17
-30
-34
-14
-8 -7 -8-10
-49
-28
-16
-19
-10
-6-7
-12-11
-3
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2016, over which time period the average annual return was 8.5%. The 2017 bar represents the year-to-date return and is not included in the average annual return calculation.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
S&P 500 intra-year declines vs. calendar year returnsDespite average intra-year drops of 14.1%, annual returns positive in 28 of 37 years
Eq
uitie
s
YTD
MARKETS CAN BE VOLATILE
DIVERSIFICATION STILL BEST APPROACH 17
• Questions have recently surfaced about the benefits of diversification and active management.
• Over the past few years, diversified portfolios have posted only modest results as they struggled to keep pace with the more narrowly focused but high profile large cap domestic equities.
• History has shown that over shorter time periods, different asset classes will outperform as other lags.
• In three-year rolling periods of 2001- 2003 and 2005-2007 international stocks outperformed the S&P 500.
• Recently, with increased volatility, several asset classes that struggled the past few years have finally shown life, leadingmarkets higher.
• Even though diversification may not always benefit portfolios over short term, it is a much more prudent strategy than relying on market timing to rotate in and out of asset classes.
• Over a 20 period, the average investor return has been about 2% where a balanced diversified portfolio has returned over 7%.
• Mitigating risks by employing a systematic rebalancing process has historically added an additional .5% annually to portfolioreturns.
Source: FFA Investment Management, Envestnet PMC, JP Morgan
18
Asset class returns
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD Ann. Vol.
Comdty.EM
EquityREITs
EM
EquityREITs
EM
Equity
Fixe d
Inc ome
EM
EquityREITs REITs REITs
Sma ll
Ca pREITs REITs
Sma ll
Ca p
EM
EquityREITs
EM
Equity
2 5 .9 % 5 6 .3 % 3 1.6 % 3 4 .5 % 3 5 .1% 3 9 .8 % 5 .2 % 7 9 .0 % 2 7 .9 % 8 .3 % 19 .7 % 3 8 .8 % 2 8 .0 % 2 .8 % 2 1.3 % 18 .6 % 10 .8 % 2 3 .8 %
Fixe d
Inc ome
Sma ll
Ca p
EM
EquityComdty.
EM
EquityComdty. Ca sh
High
Y ie ld
Sma ll
Ca p
Fixe d
Inc ome
High
Y ie ld
La rge
Ca p
La rge
Ca p
La rge
Ca p
High
Y ie ld
DM
Equity
EM
EquityREITs
10 .3 % 4 7 .3 % 2 6 .0 % 2 1.4 % 3 2 .6 % 16 .2 % 1.8 % 5 9 .4 % 2 6 .9 % 7 .8 % 19 .6 % 3 2 .4 % 13 .7 % 1.4 % 14 .3 % 14 .2 % 9 .8 % 2 2 .6 %
High
Y ie ld
DM
Equity
DM
Equity
DM
Equity
DM
Equity
DM
Equity
Asse t
Alloc .
DM
Equity
EM
Equity
High
Y ie ld
EM
Equity
DM
Equity
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc ome
La rge
Ca p
La rge
Ca p
High
Y ie ld
Sma ll
Ca p
4 .1% 3 9 .2 % 2 0 .7 % 14 .0 % 2 6 .9 % 11.6 % - 2 5 .4 % 3 2 .5 % 19 .2 % 3 .1% 18 .6 % 2 3 .3 % 6 .0 % 0 .5 % 12 .0 % 9 .3 % 9 .2 % 2 0 .1%
REITs REITsSma ll
Ca pREITs
Sma ll
Ca p
Asse t
Alloc .
High
Y ie ldREITs Comdty.
La rge
Ca p
DM
Equity
Asse t
Alloc .
Asse t
Alloc .Ca sh Comdty.
Asse t
Alloc .
Sma ll
Ca p
DM
Equity
3 .8 % 3 7 .1% 18 .3 % 12 .2 % 18 .4 % 7 .1% - 2 6 .9 % 2 8 .0 % 16 .8 % 2 .1% 17 .9 % 14 .9 % 5 .2 % 0 .0 % 11.8 % 6 .8 % 8 .5 % 19 .2 %
Ca shHigh
Y ie ld
High
Y ie ld
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca p
Fixe d
Inc ome
Sma ll
Ca p
Sma ll
Ca p
La rge
Ca pCa sh
Sma ll
Ca p
High
Y ie ld
Sma ll
Ca p
DM
Equity
EM
Equity
High
Y ie ld
Asse t
Alloc .Comdty.
1.7 % 3 2 .4 % 13 .2 % 8 .1% 15 .8 % 7 .0 % - 3 3 .8 % 2 7 .2 % 15 .1% 0 .1% 16 .3 % 7 .3 % 4 .9 % - 0 .4 % 11.6 % 6 .5 % 6 .9 % 19 .0 %
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca p
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca p
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca pComdty.
La rge
Ca p
High
Y ie ld
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca pREITs Ca sh
Asse t
Alloc .REITs
Sma ll
Ca p
La rge
Ca p
La rge
Ca p
- 5 .9 % 2 8 .7 % 12 .8 % 4 .9 % 15 .3 % 5 .5 % - 3 5 .6 % 2 6 .5 % 14 .8 % - 0 .7 % 16 .0 % 2 .9 % 0 .0 % - 2 .0 % 8 .6 % 5 .0 % 6 .7 % 15 .9 %
EM
Equity
Asse t
Alloc .
La rge
Ca p
Sma ll
Ca p
High
Y ie ldCa sh
La rge
Ca p
Asse t
Alloc .
Asse t
Alloc .
Sma ll
Ca p
Asse t
Alloc .Ca sh
High
Y ie ld
High
Y ie ld
Asse t
Alloc .REITs
DM
Equity
High
Y ie ld
- 6 .0 % 2 6 .3 % 10 .9 % 4 .6 % 13 .7 % 4 .8 % - 3 7 .0 % 2 5 .0 % 13 .3 % - 4 .2 % 12 .2 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 % - 2 .7 % 8 .3 % 4 .9 % 5 .7 % 11.7 %
DM
EquityComdty. Comdty.
High
Y ie ldCa sh
High
Y ie ldREITs Comdty.
DM
Equity
DM
Equity
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc ome
EM
Equity
Sma ll
Ca p
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc ome
Asse t
Alloc .
- 15 .7 % 2 3 .9 % 9 .1% 3 .6 % 4 .8 % 3 .2 % - 3 7 .7 % 18 .9 % 8 .2 % - 11.7 % 4 .2 % - 2 .0 % - 1.8 % - 4 .4 % 2 .6 % 2 .3 % 4 .6 % 11.0 %
Sma ll
Ca p
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc omeCa sh
Fixe d
Inc ome
Sma ll
Ca p
DM
Equity
Fixe d
Inc ome
Fixe d
Inc omeComdty. Ca sh
EM
Equity
DM
Equity
EM
Equity
DM
EquityCa sh Ca sh
Fixe d
Inc ome
- 2 0 .5 % 4 .1% 4 .3 % 3 .0 % 4 .3 % - 1.6 % - 4 3 .1% 5 .9 % 6 .5 % - 13 .3 % 0 .1% - 2 .3 % - 4 .5 % - 14 .6 % 1.5 % 0 .3 % 1.3 % 3 .5 %
La rge
Ca pCa sh Ca sh
Fixe d
Inc omeComdty. REITs
EM
EquityCa sh Ca sh
EM
EquityComdty. Comdty. Comdty. Comdty. Ca sh Comdty. Comdty. Ca sh
- 2 2 .1% 1.0 % 1.2 % 2 .4 % 2 .1% - 15 .7 % - 5 3 .2 % 0 .1% 0 .1% - 18 .2 % - 1.1% - 9 .5 % - 17 .0 % - 2 4 .7 % 0 .3 % - 5 .3 % 1.2 % 0 .8 %
2002 - 2016
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, NAREIT, Russell, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Large cap: S&P 500, Small cap: Russell 2000, EM Equity: MSCI EME, DM Equity: MSCI EAFE, Comdty: Bloomberg Commodity Index, High Yield: Barclays Global HY Index, Fixed Income: Barclays US Aggregate, REITs: NAREIT Equity REIT Index. The “Asset Allocation” portfolio assumes the following weights: 25% in the S&P 500, 10% in the Russell 2000, 15% in the MSCI EAFE, 5% in the MSCI EME, 25% in the Barclays US Aggregate, 5% in the Barclays 1-3m Treasury, 5% in the Barclays Global High Yield Index, 5% in the Bloomberg Commodity Index and 5% in the NAREIT Equity REIT Index. Balanced portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. Annualized (Ann.) return and volatility (Vol.) represents period of 12/31/01 – 12/31/16. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions. All data represents total return for stated period. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Inve
stin
g
prin
cip
les
DIVERSIFICATION IS KEY
19
The importance of staying invested and limiting losses
2.0%10%
49%
3.0%
16%
81%
6.5%
37%
252%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1 year 5 years 20 years
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*Asset class growth rates are based on synthetic returns using J.P. Morgan’s Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions; projected Bond return is based on assumption for U.S. aggregate bonds; projected Stock return is based on an approximation of the average return assumption among small, medium and large cap U.S. stocks.Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2017.
Gain required to fully recover from a lossLoss and subsequent gain necessary for full recovery of value
Investing
princip
les
1%5% 11%
25%
43%
67%
100%
150%
233%
-1%-5%
-10%-20%
-30%-40%
-50%
-60%-70%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Loss
Required gainCash
The power of compoundingCumulative return by holding period*
Bonds
Stocks
STAY THE COURSE
A FIDUCIARY INVESTMENT PROCESS 20
• Deliver 8 specialty managed funds
• Social Screening provided on each fund
• Each fund is valued monthly
• Provides professional management to every size relationship
• Lower Expenses
• Allows for greater diversification
• Unified client base with similar investment objective than a public fund
• Thoughtful consideration and application of each of the investment factors which fiduciary investors are required to consider
Fulton Financial Advisors and Clermont Wealth Strategies operate through Fulton Bank, N.A. and other subsidiaries of Fulton Financial Corporation. Fulton Financial Advisors and Clermont Wealth Strategies offer a broad
array of financial products and trust and retirement services
The information and material in this report is being provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or to adopt a particular
investment strategy.
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Fulton Financial Advisors and Clermont Wealth Strategies or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively “Fulton”) do not warrant its completeness,
timeliness or accuracy, except with respect to any disclosures relative to Fulton. The information contained herein is as of the date referenced above, and Fulton does not undertake any obligation to update such
information. Fulton affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, this report.
All charts and graphs are shown for illustrative purposes only. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject
to change without notice.
Any opinions and recommendations expressed herein do not take into account an investor's financial circumstances, investment objectives or financial needs, and are not intended as advice regarding, or recommendations
of, particular investments and/or trading strategies, including investments that reference a particular derivative index or other benchmark.
The investments described herein may be complex, involve significant risk and volatility, and may only be appropriate for highly sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved.
The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and could be adversely affected by changes in interest rates, exchange rates or other factors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value or income associated with a security may fluctuate, and investors could lose their entire investment. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or
guarantee better performance, and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses.
Investors must make their own decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein, and must not rely upon this report in evaluating the merits of investing in any instruments or pursuing investment
strategies described herein. You should consult with your own advisors as to the suitability of such securities or other financial instruments for your particular circumstances. In no event shall Fulton be liable for any use by
any party of, for any decision made or action taken by any party in reliance upon, or for any inaccuracies or errors in, or omissions from, the information contained herein.
Fulton makes no representations as to the legal, tax, credit, or accounting treatment of any transactions or strategies mentioned herein, or any other effects such transactions may have on investors. You should review any
planned financial transactions that may have tax or legal implications with a tax or legal advisor.
Recipients of this report will not be treated as customers of Fulton by virtue of having received this report. No part of this report may be redistributed to others or replicated in any form without prior consent of Fulton.
Equity Index Returns: All data represents total return including the reinvestment of dividends for stated period. S&P 500: Standard and Poor’s 500 largest market cap companies; DJIA: Dow Jones Industrial Average;
MSCI-EAFE: Morgan Stanley Capital International-Europe, Australia & Far East; MSCI-EMEA: Morgan Stanley Capital International-Emerging Markets. All data obtained from Morningstar Direct.
Equity Index Values: Reflects closing price level for each index as of stated date. All data obtained from Bloomberg LP.
Fixed Income Index Returns: BarCap: Barclays Capital. All data obtained from Morningstar Direct.
Alternatives/Liquid Real Assets: All data represents total return including the reinvestment of dividends for stated period. DJ UBS Commodities: Dow Jones UBS Securities Commodity; Alerian MLP: Alerian Master
Limited Partnership; FTSE NAREIT Equity: FTSE National Real Estate Equity. All data obtained from Morningstar Direct.
S O U R C E S A N D C A L C U L A T I O N S
Securities and Insurance Products:
•Not FDIC-Insured •Not Insured by any Federal Government Agency • No Financial Institution Guarantee •Subject to Risk • May Lose Value •Not a Deposit 21 of 3