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THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER DAMS POWER REPLACEMENT STUDY Reliable and affordable clean energy options that can help restore salmon and protect the environment Wild salmon are crucial to the Northwest economy and environment and they’re threatened with extinction. Recovery of their populations would spur growth in our fishing and tourism industries and benefit towns and tribal communities in which they play a central economic and cultural role. Restoration is also essential to saving other species like our endangered orca whales. And it’s required by bedrock environmental laws—the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)—as well as by Tribal Treaty obligations. A promising option for restoring salmon in the Columbia-Snake River basins—once one of the most flourishing wild salmon ecosystems on the planet—would be the removal of four dams on the lower Snake River in southeast Washington. Despite billions of dollars spent trying to mitigate their impact, the dams have played a central role in reducing salmon populations by more than 90%. At the same time, the dams supply about 4% of the region’s electricity. This study describes how the power and energy services provided by the dams could be reliably replaced with clean and renewable energy at a highly affordable cost. The study shows that a clean replacement energy portfolio that includes wind, solar, demand-response, energy efficiency, and storage would increase electric system reliability and either decrease greenhouse gas emissions or cause emissions to rise by less than 1% depending on regional energy policies. The cost to the average residential customer would be not much more than a dollar and would not begin until 2026, the year in which the study anticipated the new resources would be implemented. The cost may turn out to be even lower if prices for wind, solar, and storage technologies drop below the conservative assumptions made in the study. In summary, there is a viable, affordable, and environmentally sound alternative to power from the four lower Snake River dams. And, at present, it’s the only one that holds the promise of actually restoring salmon. “The region can remove the four Lower Snake River Dams and replace the power they provide with a portfolio of conservation and renewable energy resources while maintaining grid and transmission reliability at levels equal to or better than the current system and with little or no increase in greenhouse gas emissions.” Energy Strategies, Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study (April, 2018) “The study shatters the myth that replacing the lower Snake River dams and restoring our wild salmon would compromise the reliability of our power system and cause major increases in rates and greenhouse gas emissions.” Nancy Hirsh, Executive Director, NW Energy Coalition

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Page 1: THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER DAMS POWER REPLACEMENT …The Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study confirms that clean and renewable resources can provide a viable and effective energy

THELOWERSNAKERIVERDAMSPOWERREPLACEMENTSTUDY

Reliableandaffordablecleanenergyoptionsthatcanhelprestoresalmonandprotecttheenvironment

WildsalmonarecrucialtotheNorthwesteconomyandenvironmentandthey’rethreatenedwithextinction.Recoveryoftheirpopulationswouldspurgrowthinourfishingandtourismindustriesandbenefittownsandtribalcommunitiesinwhichtheyplayacentraleconomicandculturalrole.Restorationisalsoessentialtosavingotherspecieslikeourendangeredorcawhales.Andit’srequiredbybedrockenvironmentallaws—theEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA)andtheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyAct(NEPA)—aswellasbyTribalTreatyobligations.

ApromisingoptionforrestoringsalmonintheColumbia-SnakeRiverbasins—onceoneofthemostflourishingwildsalmonecosystemsontheplanet—wouldbetheremovaloffourdamsonthelowerSnakeRiverinsoutheastWashington.Despitebillionsofdollarsspenttryingtomitigatetheirimpact,thedamshaveplayedacentralroleinreducingsalmonpopulationsbymorethan90%.

Atthesametime,thedamssupplyabout4%oftheregion’selectricity.Thisstudydescribeshowthepowerandenergyservicesprovidedbythedamscouldbereliablyreplacedwithcleanandrenewableenergyatahighlyaffordablecost.

Thestudyshowsthatacleanreplacementenergyportfoliothatincludeswind,solar,demand-response,energyefficiency,andstoragewouldincreaseelectricsystemreliabilityandeitherdecreasegreenhousegasemissionsorcauseemissionstorisebylessthan1%dependingonregionalenergypolicies.Thecosttotheaverageresidentialcustomerwouldbenotmuchmorethanadollarandwouldnotbeginuntil2026,theyearinwhichthestudyanticipatedthenewresourceswouldbeimplemented.Thecostmayturnouttobeevenlowerifpricesforwind,solar,andstoragetechnologiesdropbelowtheconservativeassumptionsmadeinthestudy.

Insummary,thereisaviable,affordable,andenvironmentallysoundalternativetopowerfromthefourlowerSnakeRiverdams.And,atpresent,it’stheonlyonethatholdsthepromiseofactuallyrestoringsalmon.

“TheregioncanremovethefourLowerSnakeRiverDamsandreplacethepowertheyprovidewithaportfolioofconservationandrenewableenergyresourceswhilemaintaininggridandtransmissionreliabilityatlevelsequaltoorbetterthanthecurrentsystemandwithlittleornoincreaseingreenhousegasemissions.”

EnergyStrategies,LowerSnakeRiverDamsPowerReplacementStudy(April,2018)

“ThestudyshattersthemyththatreplacingthelowerSnakeRiverdamsandrestoringourwildsalmonwouldcompromisethereliabilityofourpowersystemandcausemajorincreasesinratesandgreenhousegasemissions.”

NancyHirsh,ExecutiveDirector,NWEnergyCoalition

Page 2: THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER DAMS POWER REPLACEMENT …The Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study confirms that clean and renewable resources can provide a viable and effective energy

STUDYMETHODOLOGYEnergyStrategies,anindependentconsultingfirm,conductedthestudy.Theirclientsincludepowerproducers,transmissiondevelopers,utilities,andgovernmentagencies.ThechiefinvestigatorwasKeeganMoyer,previouslytransmissionplanningdirectorfortheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC).STRUCTUREThestudystartedwitha“ReferenceCase”,whichassumesthedamsremaininoperationunderexistingstatepolicyandinaccordancewiththeNorthwestPowerandConservationCouncil’s7thPowerPlanissuedin2016.Itthenconsideredthreedifferentreplacementportfoliosthatwouldreplacethepowergeneratedbythedamsasfollows:

• ANon-GeneratingAlternative(NGA)withincreasedenergyefficiency,changestopowerconsumptionpatterns(akademandresponse),batterystorage,andincrementalmarketpurchasesofelectricity.

• ABalancedAlternative(Balanced)withacombinationofdemandresponse,energyefficiency,andwindandsolargeneration.

• AnAll-GasAlternative(AllGas)withnaturalgas.

ThestudyterritoryincludedthestatesofIdaho,Montana,Oregon,andWashingtonandaccountedforchangesingreenhousegasemissionswithintheregionforeachalternativeaswellasupcomingcoalgenerationretirementsintheregion.PROCESS&METHODOLOGY

Theanalysiswasconductedinthreephases:

1. IdentificationandquantificationofthegridservicesprovidedbythelowerSnakeRiverdams.2. Developmentofreplacementportfoliosthatwouldmeetorexceedreliability,energy,andcapacityneeds.3. Costassessmentlookingatfixedandvariablecoststoimplementthereplacementportfolios,

productionandoperatingcosts,andimpactonmarketprices.

DataforthestudywereprovidedbyWECC,ColumbiaGrid,andtheNorthwestPowerandConservationCouncil.

RESOURCECOMPOSITIONOFTHEREPLACEMENTPORTFOLIOS

ThebaseBalancedandNGAportfolioswereenhancedbytheadditionofextraresourcestocreate“Plus”versions.TheresultingportfoliosaswellastheAllGasportfoliowerethenmodeledfortheireffectsbothundercurrentlawandunderascenarioinwhichNorthweststatesadoptcarbon-pricingpolicies.

Page 3: THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER DAMS POWER REPLACEMENT …The Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study confirms that clean and renewable resources can provide a viable and effective energy

FINDINGSTheanalysisindicatesthattheNorthwestcanreplacethepowergeneratedbythefourlowerSnakeRiverdamswithacombinationofnewwind,solar,anddemand-sideresources(energyefficiency,demandresponse,andenergystorage)thatareallachievableinthenexttenyears.Thisbalancedreplacementportfolioprovidesbetterresourceadequacythanthefourdamsanddoesnotcreateanysignificantregionalreliabilityissues.

ADEQUACY&RELIABILITY

AllreplacementportfoliosachievedannualLossofLoadProbabilityresultsthataresuperiortothoseofthereferencecasewiththedamsinplace,indicatingthatthelikelihoodandmagnitudeofloadcurtailmentsislowerwiththereplacementportfolioscenarios.

Thecharttotherightillustratessystemadequacyandreliability,firstwiththedamsinoperation,nextwithoutthedams,and,finallywhenthedamsarereplacedbythedifferentportfolios.COSTImplementingtheBalancedPlusportfoliowouldincreaseregionalrevenuerequirementsby3%to3.21%startingin2026,dependingonwhethertheNorthwestimplementsgreenhousegaspolicies.Ineithercase,therevenuerequirementtoimplementtheBalancedPlusportfolioislessthantherequirementfortheAllGasportfolio.

TherevenuerequirementfortheBalancedPlusportfoliotranslatesintoanincreaseofnotmuchmorethanadollaramonthfortheaveragehousehold.Ifcostsforwindandsolarpowerandstoragecontinuecurrentdeclines,thisfigurecoulddropfurtherasshowninthe“BalancedPlusw/LowRenewableCostSensitivity”columnofthefollowingchart.

EMISSIONSInyearswhenhydrogenerationisatorbelowaverage,utilitiesrelymoreheavilyonpurchasesofenergyfromfossilfuelresourcesresultinginincreasedemissions.Therenewable-richportfolios–BalancedPlusandBalancedPlus+GHGPolicy–generateenoughcleanelectricitytolimitemissionincreasestolessthan1%,orevenreduceregionalemissionsbelowpredictedlevels.

Thestudyshowsthatregionaldecreasesinemissionswouldoccurifthepowerfromthedamswerereplacedwithabalancedcleanenergyportfolioimplementedinparallelwitharegionalemissionsreductionpolicy.Evenwithoutsuchapolicy,theBalancedPluscleanportfoliowouldonlyincreaseregionalemissionsbyabout1%.Thatfigurecouldwelldeclineasthecostsofcleanpowercontinuetodrop.

Page 4: THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER DAMS POWER REPLACEMENT …The Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study confirms that clean and renewable resources can provide a viable and effective energy

POLICYIMPLICATIONS

InMay2016,afederaldistrictcourtinvalidatedforthefifthtimein20yearsthefederalgovernment’splanforoperatingtheColumbiaandSnakeRiversystembecauseitviolatestheEndangeredSpeciesAct,violatestheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyAct,andjeopardizesthecontinuedexistenceofseveralthreatenedorendangeredsalmonruns.Thecourtgavethefederalagenciesuntil2021todevelopanewandlegallyadequateplan.

ThecourtalsodirectedthefederalagenciesresponsibleforthelowerSnakeRiverdamstofullyconsiderviablealternativesforfishrestoration,specificallyincludingremovalofthefourlowerSnakeRiverdams.

TheLowerSnakeRiverDamsPowerReplacementStudyconfirmsthatcleanandrenewableresourcescanprovideaviableandeffectiveenergyalternativetothecontinuedoperationofthedams.Wecanretirethedamsandkeepthelightson.Thestudyalsooffersaframeworkfromwhichthefederalagenciescandrawastheydevelopanewplanfordamoperations.

AlthoughthisstudydemonstratestheviabilityofreplacingpowerfromthefourlowerSnakeRiverdamswithcleanandrenewableresources,itdidnotseektoidentifytheoptimalcleanenergysolution.Withanewplanindevelopment,theregionhasagreatopportunitytoidentifyevenmorecosteffectiveandenvironmentallyefficientoutcomesthanthecleanreplacementportfoliosconsideredinthisanalysis.Additionalefficienciesandsavingswilllikelybefoundiffuturecostsforrenewableenergyresourcesandstorageturnouttobelowerthanthecomparativelyconservativefiguresassumedinthisreport.

Ofcourse,afullstudyofdamremovalwillneedtoaddressfactorsthatwerebeyondthescopeofthisstudy,whichfocusedonreplacingthepowerfromthelowerSnakeRiverdamswithaportfolioofcleangeneration.Thesefactorsincludethecostsofdecommissioningthedams,butalsosignificantcostsavingsfromdamremoval,includingthehundredsofmillionsofdollarsthatwillbeneededinthenextfewyearstorefurbishthedams’aginginfrastructureaswellastheeconomicbenefitsofarestoredriverandhealthysalmonpopulations.ApreviousNWEnergyCoalitionstudyfoundthatthefederalagencieswouldachieveatotalnetsavingsonceboththecostsofdamdecommissioningandavoidedcapitalexpendituresresultingfromremovalaretakenintoaccount.

AsNWEnergyCoalitionpolicydirector,WendyGerlitz,hassaid,“Allstakeholdersneedtolookatup-to-datescientificandeconomicdataandtogetherforgeanewplanforthelowerSnakeRivertoprotectsalmonandmakeupforreducedhydropowerwithclean,reliable,andaffordableenergyandenergyefficiency.”Thatmessageisnowmorecompellingthanever.

ToseethestudyreportandadditionalresourcesvisitNWEnergy.org/LSRDStudy

TheNWEnergyCoalition8111stAvenue,Suite305

Seattle,WA98104www.nwenergy.org206-621-0094

April2018


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