esa-listed snake river salmon: what’s the link to snake river dams? john g. williams noaa...
TRANSCRIPT
ESA-listed Snake RiverSalmon:
What’s the link toSnake River dams?
John G. WilliamsNOAANorthwest Fisheries Science [email protected]
Conference on Large Scale Water Infrastructure:GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON LARGE DAMS3-5 November 2006 - New Haven, Connecticut, USA
•Salmon stocks pre- and post dam construction•Direct dam impacts•Modifications to dams•Where are we now?•Can we answer the questions?
Road Map
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Bonneville, The Dalles, McNary, Ice Harbor
John Day
Lower Monumental
Little Goose
Lower Granite
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s Num
ber of Dam
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Adult return
Juvenile survival
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
sJuvenile survival
No data
0
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1000011000120001300014000
Natural
Regulated
Month
Flo
w (
m3·s
ec-1
)
0
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1000011000120001300014000
Natural
Regulated
Month
Flo
w (
m3·s
ec-1
)
Changes in water storage
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
Status reviewsand ESA-listing ofsalmon andsteelhead
Transportationbegan
Bypassdevelopment& improvement
Columbia River salmon ESUs (13 of 17 listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act)
Snake River – Sockeye Salmon - Sockeye SalmonChinook salmon - spring-summer run; fall-runSteelhead - Steelhead
Columbia River – Sockeye Salmon - Lake Wenatchee/Okanogan RiverChinook salmon - Upper spring-run, Upper summer-fall run, Middle spring-run, Deschutes River summer-fall run, LowerSteelhead - Upper, Middle, and Lower Coho salmon - LowerChum salmon - Lower
Upper Willamette River - Chinook salmon; Steelhead
Snake River Trap to Bonneville Dam TailracePer-project expansion in some years
1965 1970 1975 19800.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1995 2000 2005
Nodata
Spring-summer Chinook
Steelhead
58.1%
37.3%
Outmigration year
Hyd
rosy
stem
sur
viva
l
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
to cold phase
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
1
2
3
4
5
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
to cold phase
Year
SA
R (
catc
h + e
scap
emen
t)
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
*
* Incomplete adult returns
In-river survial
SAR
Outmigration year
Hyd
rop
ow
er s
yste
m s
urv
ival
SA
R (%
)Snake River wild spring-summerChinook salmon
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
R2 = 0.03P = 0.61
Wild spring-summer Chinook salmon
Hydropower system survival
SAR (%
)
Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Natural fishin 2005estimated
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
Total return
Year
Nat
ural
fis
h re
turn
Total adult return
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
100200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
SR wild s-s Chinook salmon
SR sockeye salmon
Adult return year
Escap
em
en
t to
up
per
SR
dam
Escap
em
en
t to u
pp
er S
R d
am
Chance (1973) - information from early pioneer diaries:
In 1811 and in the late 1820s the middle Columbia River (between the confluence of the Snake River and Kettle Falls) had salmon populations so low that settlersand Native Americans relied on horseflesh for survival
0
1
2
3
4
5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of ocean entry
SA
R (
%)
observed
forecast
90% CI
Scheuerell and Williams 2005 Fisheries Oceanography
R2=0.71
Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam
19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Steelhead
S-S Chinook
Outmigration Year
SA
R(3
-yr.
ru
nn
ing
ave
rag
e)
Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam
19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Steelhead
S-S Chinook0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
5-year median harvest rate
Outmigration Year
SA
R(3
-yr.
ru
nn
ing
aver
age)
Harvest rate
Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
Year
Nat
ural
fis
h re
turn H
arvest rate
Harvest rate