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Creating an Empire In conjunction with the Anderson Business School at UCLA, the Lowe is working on a project that will ultimately establish the Institute as a lead- ing economic expert on the Inland Empire. Surprisingly, as the 14th largest metropolitan area in the nation, the Inland Empire lacks an extensive technical analysis of its economy. Therefore,the main goal of the project is to fill this void by producing comprehensive economic forecasts and economic reports for the region of Riverside County and San Bernardino County. Overall,these services will specifically target the region’s private sector by providing information that businesses can use to improve their decision making and planning abilities. Currently,the Inland Empire is in the midst of an unprecedented eco- nomic downturn with both of its economic gems, the housing industry and the logistics industry, in an abysmal condition. The impact of the ‘Great Recession’ on this area is substantially more severe relative to the U.S.as a whole. For example, the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire has increased by approximately four percentage points more than the U.S.unemployment rate since the beginning of the recession,which is currently around 14%. Looking to study the reasons for why the Inland Empire is particularly hurting, Institute Director ProfessorWeidenmier and By Dan Lockett ‘10 Friends Don’t Let Friends Walk Drunk: Steven Levitt Comes to CMC Dinner reservations filled up within hours of going online. Students stood outside theAthenaeum for more than an hour just to get a seat at the back of the room. Less fortunate students, faculty, and local residents packed McKenna Auditorium just to see the event via live video stream. Dr. Steven Levitt’s highly anticipated visit to CMC had the feel of a keynote event before most of us even had the opportunity to catch a glimpse of the award-winning author and economist. TheAthenaeum took on an incredible feel that night. Never have I seen the Athenaeum so hot, crowded, ener- getic, and superfreaky. Just three days after the release of his newest book, SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, andWhy Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance, Steven Levitt came to Claremont McKenna’s Marian Miner Cook Athenaeum to speak about his By Chase Gray ‘12 LOWE INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY November 2009 In this issue: Message from the Director Interview with Professor Burdekin An Economic Model of Terrorism A Dedicated Research Assistant Weidenmier and Bernstein Present to Bank of England U.S. Immigra- tion Policy Interview with Pro- fessor Weidenmier How to Better Utilize Female Workers Benefits of Eco- nomic Research Microeconomics Conference Creating an Empire—Continued on Page 10 Steven Levitt—Continued on Page 11 T HE L OWE D OWN Volume II, Issue 1 2 12 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 Photo: Steve Levitt meets students before Ath event

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Page 1: THE LOWE DOWN · About 10 students worked on public policy projects through the Lowe-RAND initiative under the direction of CMC Professor Eric Helland. The students are currently

Creating an Empire InconjunctionwiththeAndersonBusinessSchoolatUCLA,theLoweisworkingonaprojectthatwillultimatelyestablishtheInstituteasalead-ingeconomicexpertontheInlandEmpire.Surprisingly,asthe14thlargestmetropolitanareainthenation,theInlandEmpirelacksanextensivetechnicalanalysisofitseconomy.Therefore,themaingoaloftheprojectistofillthisvoidbyproducingcomprehensiveeconomicforecastsandeconomicreportsfortheregionofRiversideCountyandSanBernardinoCounty.Overall,theseserviceswillspecificallytargettheregion’sprivatesectorbyprovidinginformationthatbusinessescanusetoimprovetheirdecisionmakingandplanningabilities. Currently,theInlandEmpireisinthemidstofanunprecedentedeco-nomicdownturnwithbothofitseconomicgems,thehousingindustryandthe

logisticsindustry,inanabysmalcondition.Theimpactofthe‘GreatRecession’onthisareaissubstantiallymoresevererelativetotheU.S.asawhole.Forexample,theunemploymentrateintheInlandEmpirehasincreasedbyapproximatelyfourpercentagepointsmorethantheU.S.unemploymentratesincethebeginningoftherecession,whichiscurrentlyaround14%.LookingtostudythereasonsforwhytheInlandEmpireisparticularlyhurting,InstituteDirectorProfessorWeidenmierand

By Dan Lockett ‘10

Friends Don’t Let Friends Walk Drunk: StevenLevitt Comes to CMC Dinnerreservationsfilledupwithinhoursofgoingonline.StudentsstoodoutsidetheAthenaeumformorethananhourjusttogetaseatatthebackoftheroom.Lessfortunatestudents,faculty,andlocalresidentspackedMcKennaAuditoriumjusttoseetheeventvialivevideostream.Dr.StevenLevitt’shighlyanticipatedvisittoCMChadthefeelofakeynoteeventbeforemostofusevenhadtheopportunitytocatchaglimpseoftheaward-winningauthorandeconomist.TheAthenaeumtookonanincrediblefeel

thatnight.NeverhaveIseentheAthenaeumsohot,crowded,ener-getic,andsuperfreaky. Justthreedaysafterthereleaseofhisnewestbook,SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance,StevenLevittcametoClaremontMcKenna’sMarianMinerCookAthenaeumtospeakabouthis

By Chase Gray ‘12

LOWE INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

November2009

In this issue:

MessagefromtheDirector

InterviewwithProfessorBurdekin

AnEconomicModelofTerrorism

ADedicatedResearchAssistant

WeidenmierandBernsteinPresenttoBankofEngland

U.S.Immigra-tionPolicy

InterviewwithPro-fessorWeidenmierHowtoBetterUtilizeFemaleWorkersBenefitsofEco-nomicResearch

MicroeconomicsConference

Creating an Empire—Continued on Page 10

Steven Levitt—Continued on Page 11

THE LOWE DOWN

VolumeII,Issue1

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Photo: Steve Levitt meets students before Ath event

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TheLoweInstituteisfinishingitssecondyearoftheLoweFaculty-StudentResearchProgram.Overthe2008-2009academicyear,morethan50studentsworkedattheLoweInstituteonabout16differentacademicprojectsrangingfromlaboreconomicstoeconomichistory.About10studentsworkedonpublicpolicyprojectsthroughtheLowe-RANDinitiativeunderthedirectionofCMCProfessorEricHelland.Thestudentsarecurrentlyfinishingupaprojectthatexaminestheeffectofpayonthequalityofjudges.Nextspring,studentswillexaminevariousaspectsoftortreforminthepharmaceuticalindustry.

Facultyandstudentshaveco-authoredfivepapersthathavebeenpublishedineconomicsjournalsoverthelastyear.BrockBlombergandGregHess,forexample,publishedapaperwithHunterJackson’08onoilandterrorisminEconomicsandPolitics,aleadinginterdisciplinaryjournalintheareaofpoliticaleconomy.ProfessorsHughsonandWei-denmierpublishedapaperontheimportanceofthelenderoflastresortfunctionintheJournalofFinancialEconomicswhichiswidelyregardedasoneofthetoptwoorthreejournalsinbusinessschool.TheLoweInstitutealsoinvitedfivespeakerstocometocampustomeetwithstudentsandfacultyoverthe2008-09AcademicYear.PerhapsthetalkthatstimulatedthegreatestamountofstudentinterestwasbyDanielHamermeshfromtheUniversityofTexas.HecametoCMCtodiscuss“BeautyandtheLaborMarket.”Hamermeshdiscussedtheeconomicbenefitsofgoodlooksandhowitaf-fectspeople’scareerchoiceandsalary.

Goingforward,weplantocontinuetheLoweFaculty-StudentResearchProgramandthejointspeakerserieswiththeAthenaeum.Approximately60studentsshowedupforthefallLoweBBQ.SteveLevittrecentlycametotheAthenaeumtodiscusshislatestbook,Superfreakonomics.TheeventwassoldoutwithinanhourthatitwaspostedontheAthenaeumwebsite.TheLoweInstitutehasteamedupwiththestatistics/econometricclassestosponsoracompetitioncalled,“The2010NCAAMarchMadnessTournamentGame.”Asoneoftheirhomeworkassignments,studentswillbuildastatisticalmodeltopredictthemarginofvictoryinthe2010NCAAbasketballtournamentgames.Thepersonwiththebestmodelwillwinaprize.WeencourageallCMCstudents(notjuststudentsinstatisticsclasses)toparticipateinthegame.

TheLoweInstitutehasstartedanInlandEmpireinitiative.TheInstitutehiredateamofresearchassistantsthissummertocollecteconomicdataontheInlandEmpirefromthemid1970’s.Thedatahasbeenusedtoanalyzehistori-calandcurrenteconomicconditionsintheInlandEmpirewhichisthe14thlargestmetropolitanareaintheUnitedStates.TheInstituteisplanningtoholdaneconomicforecastingconferencewithUCLAAndersonin2010.Wehopetomaketheforecastingconferenceanannualevent.

TheLoweandRoseInstituteswillpublishTheInlandEmpireOutlookthisfall.ThenewsletterwillsummarizeeconomicandpoliticalconditionsintheInlandEmpirewhichiscurrentlythefourteenthlargestmetropolitanareaintheUnitedStates.Weareinthepro-cessofdevelopinganemaillistsothatwecansendthenewslettertolocalgovernmentsandleadingbusinessesintheInlandEmpire.

WewouldliketothankeveryonefortheirsupportoftheLoweInstitute.

Regards,

Marc Weidenmier

Message from the Director

Photo: Students at Lowe Luncheon

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Firstoff,IwanttosaythatErinLiu(’08)completedmostofthisresearchasherseniorthesis.Iaddedsomesub-materialbutthecoreofthepaperisherwork.Thefirstpartofourre-searchinvestigatestheim-pactofforeignoilshocksontheHawaiianeconomy.Thesecondpartofourresearchexaminestheviabilityofproducing

ethanolfromsugarcaneinHawaii,andthepoten-tialofthisproductioninmitigatingthedetrimentaleconomicimpactsofforeignoilshocks.Aninvestiga-tionofHawaii’ssugarcaneindustrybegsthefollow-ingquestion:Cansomethingbedonetosimultane-ouslymakeuseofHawaii’spotentialforsugarcaneproductionandreduceitssensitivitytooilshocks?Brazil’sextensiveproductionofsugarcane-convertedethanolhasreduceditsdependenceonimportedoilfrom70%to10%inthelastfortyyears,providinganexampleofthebenefitsthatethanolproductioncanprovide.ApplyingthisstrategytoHawaiicouldyieldsimilareconomicbenefits.

Q: How did you test your hypothesis?

A:Inordertotestthefirstpartofourhypothesis,weappliedamodeldevelopedbyJ.D.Hamilton,aneconomicsprofessoratU.C.SanDiego.ThemodelmeasuresthesensitivityofHawaii’srealpersonalincomegrowthtooilshocksusingquarterlydatafromMarch1966toDecember2008.ControllingforothersignificantfactorsontheHawaiianecon-omysuchastourism,wemeasuredthedecreaseinquarterlypersonalincomeattributedtoanoilshockinthepreviousyear.Forthesecondpartofthistest,weapplieddataforestimatedethanolproductionandestimatedethanolcoststoseveralpotentialsce-

nariosinordertodetermineifanethanolindustrywouldbeeconomicallyfeasibleandbeneficialtotheHawaiianeconomy.

Q: What were your results?

A:Theresultsoftheoilshocksensitivityresearcharefairlystraightforward.Theeconometricresultssuggestthatoilshocksproduceanaverage3.83%decreaseinHawaii’srealpersonalincomegrowthoneyearlater,clearlyshowingthatincomegrowthinHawaiiissignificantlyharmedbyoilshocks.Whiletheimplementationofdifferentethanolproductionscenarioswouldvaryintheextentoftheireffects,theyallwouldhelpHawaiimoveawayfromitsdependenceonforeignoilandreducetheharmfuleffectsofoilshocksonitseconomy.

Q: What are the implications of your find-ings?

A:Sugarcane-producedethanolhastremendouspotentialtoreduceHawaii’scurrentdependenceonforeignoil,whichamountstoastaggering50millionbarrelsofoilayear.IfHawaiitakesfulladvantageofitspotentialforsugarcaneproductionusingBrazilasanexample,itwillprovidebenefitsbeyondthereductionofforeignoildependencesuchasdiversifyingtheeconomy,creatingjobs,andstimulatinginvestment.

Q: Does your research provide any public policy prescriptions?

A:StateandfederallegislationcouldprovidethesparkneededtobringaboutthedevelopmentofadominantethanolindustryinHawaii.Lawmakers,drivenbythegoalofastateeconomyfueledby70percentcleanenergyby2030,arealreadyworkingtoencouragelocalproductionofrenewableenergy.HawaiianSenatorDanielInouyeandCongressmanNeilAbercrombiehavealreadysecured$9millionoffederalfundsforpursuingethanolprojects.Sub-sidizinganddevelopingtheethanolindustrycouldbeasmartinvestmentbytheHawaiiangovernmentbecauseofitspotentialsignificantbenefitsthataresupportedbythisresearch.

Sugar in Hawaii: The Potential for Sugar Cane Ethanol in Reducing Energy Dependence

Interview withProfessor Richard Burdekin

By Peter Meyer ‘12

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Photo: Professor Burdekin

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Althoughsufficientdataexiststocorrelateeco-nomicdisadvantagewithterroristactivity,theworkofProfessorBlombergandhisresearchassistants,JakeRichardson’10andCandaceAdelberg’10,demonstratesthatthisisavastoversim-plification.Inreality,there

isacomplicatedandmulti-facetedcorrelationbetweenthepoliticalandeconomicconditionsofacountryandthelikelihoodofaterroristattack.Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergarewritingachapterfortheResearch in Trans-portation Economics Volume on the Economics of Transportation Securitythatreflectsthisreality,entitledAn Economic Model of Terrorism. Itwillbeoneoftheonlychaptersinthebookwrittenbyaneconomist.Themajor-ityofthebookwillbeauthoredbytranspor-tationspecialiststhatexplorespecifichypo-theticalevents,suchasthecostsofaterroristattackontheportsofLosAngeles.However,Blomberg’schapterwillprovideamacroeco-nomicmodelofterrorismforthebroadercontextofthebook. ThemodelforterrorismusedinthispaperisthesamemodelthatBlombergfoundtobeeffectiveinhispreviousworkfromaslateasthe1990s.Withupdateddata,there-sultsshowthatwhenthemodelisextendedtothepresent,theconnectionbetweentheeconomyandterrorismisslightlyweaker.Thismayreflectchangesinthenatureofterrorisminthepasttwodecades. “Someofthenewaspectsofterrorismthatwe’reseeinglatelymayhavelesstodowithwhatwe’remodelinghere,”saidBlom-berg.“WithAl-Qaedaandterrorismtoday,it’snotsomuchduetoabadeconomy,atleastintheshortrun.” Duetothecomplexitiesofterrorism,therearemanyotherfactorsthatmayhavebecomemoreinfluentialthaneconomiccondi-tionsindeterminingthelikelihoodofaterror-

istattackoccurringatagiventime.However,allofthesefactorscannotbetakenintocon-siderationbecauseamodelmustbesimplifiedtobepractical. “Youmighthavetodevelopatheoreti-calandempiricalframeworkbasedontribes,civilwar,andethnicdifferences,”saidBlom-berg.“Butwhenyougoonthatthere’snotalotofpredictivepower.” Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergusedtwodifferentapproachestofindausefulmodel.Thefirstcomparedonlytheeffectofcurrenteconomicconditionsonthelikelihoodofaterroristattack. “Thissimpleprobabilisticviewdidn’tsayallthatmuchaboutwhatwasgoingon,”saidRichardson. Forthesecondapproach,theyranamorecomplexeconometricmodelthatusedeightdifferenteconomicandterroristactivityconditionsforboththepastandpresentpe-riods.Thisdatawasthendividedintocountrycategoriesbasedonincomeanddemocracy. Thesecondmodeldemonstratedthattheeffectsonterroristactivityvarybetweencountriesbasedonpoliticalstructureandlevelofeconomicdevelopment.Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergfoundthatifthedis-sidentgrouplackedresources,thechanceofaterroristattackincreasedmorethaniftheeconomywasweakoverall.Anotherfindingwasthatcountrieswithunsoundinstitutions,withmorecorruptionandlessavailableedu-cationandhealthcare,weremoresusceptibletoterroristattacks.Aspecificexampleofthesefindingsisthatthechanceofaterroristattackinanon-democraticcountryafteraneconomiccontractioninthepreviousperiodwastwicethatofademocraticcountryunderthesameconditions. “Supposethereisaconstantstreamofterroristattacks,”Blombergexplained.“What’sgoingtocausethatstreamtoturnintoariver?IntheU.S.,youwon’tfindmanythingsthatwillchangethat.Inanothercoun-try,youmayseethatthestreamturnsinto

An Economic Model of TerrorismBy Jenn Good ‘13

November 2009Page4

Photo: Professor Blomberg

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ragingwaterbasedoncertaincon-ditions.” Themanyfactorsshownbythismodeltoaffectterroristattacksdemonstratethedifficultyoffindingeffectivepublicpoliciestopreventterrorism.Forexample,thechaptershowsthatjustgivingmoneytocountriesisnotneces-sarilyhelpfulinpreventingterror-ismifthedissidentgroupsdonotreceiveanyresources.Infact,themodelshowsthatiftheeliteorthegovernmentpossessesmoreresources,thedonationcouldactuallyincreasethechancesofaterroristattack. “Ourresultsarecomplicat-ed,”saidBlomberg.“Andourpublicpolicyimplicationsarecomplicated,butthat’stherealworld.” RichardsonandAdelbergalsolearnedfromtheirresearchwithBlombergthatdecipheringtherealworldmeaningoftheirresultsisachallenge. “Alotoftimesinclassesthemodelsworkperfectly,butintherealworldtheydon’t,”saidAdelberg.“Therearealotofbar-riersthatyouruninto,especiallywiththedata.Youhavetobecre-ativetofigureouthowtocomeupwithacoherentstory.” ThedifficultyofinterpretingeconomicdataandtheresultingimplicationsispartofwhatdrawsBlombergtoeconomicresearch. “That’sthebeautyofeco-nomics.Alotofpeoplethinkitshouldjustbesimple...andit’snot,”saidBlomberg.“Therealworldweworkinisacomplicatedanimal,andwhentryingtolookatalotofprocessesatonceyourealizeit’snotgoingtocomeouteasy.”

Asadedicatedresearchassistantsincehersopho-moreyear,CandaceAdelberg‘10hashadtheopportu-nitytoworkonseveraldifferentprojectsattheLoweInstitute.SincelastMay,AdelberghassuccessfullyledateamoffiveresearchassistantsthatwillcontinuetomakeheadwayontheInlandEmpireprojectthroughouttheschoolyear.“WhileworkingattheLoweoverthesummer,Ipracticedapplyingeconometricmethodstomyresearch,gainingtechnicalknowledgeaswellasagreatappreciationfortheentireresearchprocess.” ThroughoutherexperiencesattheLowe,Can-dacehasworkedonprojectswithProfessorsArndt,Blomberg,Keil,andWeidenmier.Oneparticularlyinter-estingprojectthatshecontributedtowasProfessorBlomberg’spaperthatfocusesontheeconomicimpactoftheU.S.troopsurgeinIraq.Adelberghasalsoco-authoredapaperwithProfessorKeilthatcomparesrecentbusinesscyclesintheU.S.,California,andtheInlandEmpire.FromthecurrentInlandEmpireproject,shehasgainedadministrativeexperiencewhilehavingtheuniqueopportunitytoapplytheforecastingmethodsshelearnedinherclassestorealresearch. Asaresultofherhardwork,Candacehasac-quiredmanyvaluableskillsthatwillhelpherinthefuturewhenshebecomesengagedineconomicpolicyworkafterCMC.AdelberghasprovenherselftobeavaluableassetfortheLoweInstitute,andshewillcon-tinuetoplayasignificantroleonresearchprojectsthroughouttheremainderofhersenioryear.

Candace Adelberg ‘10

A Dedicated Research AssistantBy Dan Lockett ‘10

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Photo: Candace Adelberg ‘10

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Athenaeum—OnOctober29th,2009,GordonHan-son,arenownedeconomicsprofessorattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,spokeaboutawidelydebated“hottopic”issue:U.S.immigrationpolicy.HedescribedthecurrentU.S.policytowardbothillegalandlegalimmigration,analyzeditseconomic

impact,andconcludedwithwaysinwhichCon-gresscaneffectivelyaddressthepoliticalconun-drumofimmigration. AccordingtoHanson,theU.S.hasex-periencedsteadygrowthinillegalimmigrationforthepastthirtyyears.ThisislargelybecausetheU.S.hasadoptedanaccommodatingpolicytowardimmigrantsbyprovidingthem,amongotherrightsandbenefits,freehealthcareandaccesstopublicschooleducation.Inaddition,astudyshowsthataworkerintheU.S.canearnawagethatis2.5timesgreaterthantheaveragewageinMexico,wherethemajorityoftheim-migrantscomefrom.Consequently,theseincen-tiveshavespurredaninfluxofundocumentedworkers. InordertoreducethenumberofillegalimmigrantscrossingU.S.borders,Congresshasestablishedbothborderandinteriorenforce-ment.Thereareover20,000borderpatrolof-ficerswhoconcentrateonurbanareasalongtheborder,andanother20,000CustomandBorderProtectionagentswhoscreenpassengersandcargoat300portsofentry.Asforinteriordefense,CongressformedtheU.S.Immigration

LoweInstituteDirectorMarcWeidenmierandHMCAlumniAsafBernsteinpresentedtheirpaper,Can a Lender-of-Last-Resort Stabilize Financial Markets?Lessons from the Founding of the Fed,toaconferencehostedbytheFinancialStabilityDivisionoftheBankofEnglandlastSeptember.Theconferenceincludedrepresentativesfromover20centralbanksandfo-cusedonthequestion:“towhatextentdoespolicymattertomaintainingfinancialstability?” WeidenmierandBernsteinhelpedanswerthatquestionthroughtheirpaper,whichexaminesfinan-cialmarketvolatilitybeforeandafterthecreationoftheFederalReserve.Typically,thespecificeffectsofthecreationoftheFedarepracticallyimpossibletocalculateduetoconflatingvariables.However,byonlyexaminingthemonthsofSeptemberandOctober,theywereabletoisolatetheseeffectstoshowthatacentralbankindeedlowersvolatilityinfinancialmarkets.Thelogicbehindthisisthatduetothecostsofmovingcropstomarketduringthefallharvestseason,thedemandforloanswouldsharplyincreaseduringSeptemberandOctober,frequentlyresultinginilliquidfinancialmarkets.Aconsequenceofthisil-liquiditywasthatnearlyallofthemajorpanicsoftheNationalBankperiodoccurredduringthefallharvestseason,whenloaninterestratesweresignificantlymorevolatilerelativetotherestoftheyear.AfterthecreationoftheFed,thevolatilityofmonthlycallloanratesduringthesemonthslowereddrastically,whichsignifiesthattheFedactingasalenderoflastresortdidhaveapositiveeffectonfinancialmarkets. Thepresentationwaswellreceivedatthecon-ference.WeidenmierandBernsteinreceivedmanypositivecomments,includingonethatincitedthemtowriteafollowuppaperonhowmarginsaffectfinan-cialmarketsthroughliquidity. ThepapertheypresentedisavailableontheLoweInstitutewebpage.Itwillbepublishedinanup-comingeditionoftheprestigiousJournalofFinancialEconomics,whichisthesecondmostreadfinancialpublicationamongbusinessschoolsandhasanarticleacceptancerateofunder8%.

Marc Weidenmier and Asaf Bernstein Give Presentation to Bank of England

By Laura Hagen ‘11

Gordon Hanson

U.S. ImmigrationPolicy: An Economic Perspective

By Mark Gose ‘11

Photo: Professor Hanson

November 2009Page6

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andCustomsEnforcementagencyasapartoftheHomelandSecurityActof2002.ThisbranchofHome-landSecuritynotonlyinvestigatescrimescommittedbyillegalimmigrantsintheU.S.,butalsoensuresthedepartureofallremovablealiensthroughfairenforce-mentoftheU.S.immigrationlaws.Overall,thebudgetforimmigrationenforcementisaround$15billion.Yetdespitethishighcostandlargeenforcementeffort,theU.S.governmenthasfailedtoslowtheflowofillegalimmigrants.AccordingtoHanson,astudyshowsthatover500,000immigrantsstillentertheU.S.illegallyeveryyear. Thislargeinflowofillegalimmigrantsmustbetakenintoconsiderationwhenshapingpolicyforlegalimmigration.TheUnitedStates’mainobjectiveforpermittinglegalimmigrationistofosterthereunifica-tionoffamilies.Hansonexplainsthatapproximatelytwo-thirdsoftheimmigrantswhoreceivegreencardsareeitherimmediaterelativesofU.S.citizensorbeingsponsoredbyU.S.families.However,withtheincreas-ingnumberofillegalimmigrants,theU.S.governmentmustchoosebetweenadjustingthecurrentimmigra-tionquotastolowertheamountoflegalimmigrantsorfurtherstrengthenborderandinteriorenforcement. Althoughillegalimmigrationinflictsseriouscosts,Hansonalsohighlightstheeconomicbenefitsthatarisefromamoreopendoorpolicy.First,itisimportanttonotethatimmigrantinflowsaresensitivetothebusinesscycleandcreateamoremobilelaborforce.WhentheU.S.experiencesaneconomicboom,employersinlow-skilledindustrieshaveahighdemandforimmigrantsbecausetheynotonlyfillthegapoflow-skilledworkersintheU.S.butalsocanbemovedfairlyeasilyacrossregionsandoccupations.Hansonstatedthat,“Illegalworkersaremobile.TheycouldbelayingcarpetinVegasoneweek,andputtingupadry

wallinGeorgiathenext.”Furthermore,asurplusinlaborwillleadtoadecreaseinwages,therebydepress-ingconsumerprices.Therefore,illegalimmigrationdoesprovideeconomicbenefitstobothU.S.employ-ersandconsumers. Ontheotherhand,workerswhocompetewithimmigrantsdosuffer.Butsincelow-skilledlaborisrelativelyscarceintheU.S.,thelosstothosecompet-ingwithimmigrantsissmallcomparedtothegaintoU.S.employers.U.S.taxpayersarebyfarthebiggestlosersandthestrongestadvocatesforgreaterenforce-ment.Theproblemisthatimmigrantsreceivegovern-mentservicesbutdonotpaytheirfullshareoftaxes.IthasbeenestimatedthatillegalimmigrationcostsU.S.taxpayers$10billionperyear! Sinceincreasingenforcementmaybeafutileat-tempttoslowthewaveofillegalimmigration,Hansonoffersanotheracourseofaction.First,allowundocu-mentedworkerstoentertheU.S.butrequireanentryfee,whichshouldbelargeenoughtodeterunmoti-vatedimmigrants.Second,makethenumberofvisasavailablesensitivetothebusinesscycleandsellthematauctionrates.WhenthereisaboomintheU.S.,moreimmigrantswillwanttoenter,sothegovernmentcanauctionoffmorevisas.SellingthematauctionratesasopposedtofixedrateswillhelptheU.S.findthemostwillingandmotivatedworkers.Finally,allowtheillegalimmigrantstoearngreencards.Ultimately,thesepoliciesforceundocumentedworkerstopayapricetoparticipateintheU.S.laborforcewhileatthesametimeoffersthemincentivetoabidebythelawbyallowingthemtoearngreencards.Whetherornotthisisaviablestrategytomanageillegalimmigrationisyettobedetermined.OnecanonlyhopethattheU.S.governmentwillsoonfindasolutiontothiscriticalproblem.

CALENDAR OF EVENTS

Southern California Applied Microeconomics ConferenceFriday, April 16, 2010

Board of Governors MeetingWinter 2010 T.B.D.

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Q: What is the testable hypothesis of your paper?A:Brazilistheonlyoneofthetenlargesteconomiesintheworldthathasdra-maticallyreduceditsdependencyonforeignoilinthelast30years.Byincreasingdomesticoilproductionandintroducingsugarcaneethanolasanenergyalternative,Brazilreduceditsoilimportsby60%.Mostcountrieshavevirtuallynoalternativeenergy,butsugarcaneethanolaccountsforover22%ofenergyconsumptioninBrazilwhileoilaccountsforonly36%.Basedonthispremise,theA.E.I.(AmericanEnterpriseInstitute)askedmetoworkonaprojectcalledHedging Against Peak Oil Shocks.ThefocuswastheextenttowhichincreasingdomesticenergyproductioncouldshieldtheUnitedStatesfromoilshocks.Oneofthemainhypotheseswastoshowthatincreasingdomesticenergyproductiongeneratesgreaterincomeandconsumptionsmoothing,reducingthenegativeeffectsofoilshocks.Oilshocksarelikeataxbecausetheyreduceproductionandraiseprices.Wefoundthat,duringanoilshock,thereisasubstantialriseinunemploymentinstatesthatdonothaveanenergysectorwhilethisdoesnotoccurinenergy-producingstates.

Q: How did you test your hypothesis?A:Welookedatsomeeconomicmodelsthatmeasuretheextenttowhichyougetconsumptionsmoothingacrossthestates,andwefoundthatenergy-producingstatesshowtwiceasmuchsmoothingasnon-energy-producingstates.Wealsolookedatemploymentratesduringoilshocks,andwefoundevidencethatemploy-mentgoesupinenergy-producingstatesduetomultipliereffects.Athrivingoilsectorcreatespositivespinoffsintherestoftheeconomy.Forexample,the7-11nexttotheoilrigmighthiremoreemployees.

Q: What are the implications of your findings?A:Intermsofenergyproduction,thisstudyimpliesthatincreasingtheproductionofnaturalgasisthebestwayfortheU.S.topartiallyoffsetoilshocks.Notonlyisnaturalgascleanerthanoil,buttheU.S.hasmorenaturalgasreservesthanoilreserves.OurfindingsindicatethatsmoothingouteconomicactivitybyreducingU.S.dependenceonforeignoilwouldoffsetthenegativeeffectsofoilshocks.JimHamilton,afamousoilshockexpertinSanDiego,estimatesthatifoilpriceshadnotsky-rocketedtonearly$150abarrel,therecessionwouldhavestartedap-proximatelysixmonthslater.Importingsendsmoneyoverseas,whereasincreasingdomesticproductionallowsustokeepthegainsfrompayingdomesticworkersanddomesticownersofcapital.Consequently,theyaremorelikelytospendtheirmoneydomestically,whichhelpsoffsetthenegativeeffectsofanoilshock.

Q: Does your research provide any public policy prescriptions?A:Youcan’tavoidoilshocks,butyoucanminimizetheirimpacttoacertainextent.ThispaperexemplifiesthefactthattheU.S.cansmoothoutoilshocksbyincreasingdomesticenergyproductionthroughoil,naturalgas,orboth.Rightnow,thealterna-tiveenergyoptionswehavearehighlyinefficient,withtheexceptionofsugarcaneethanol.Unfortunately,thefederalgovernmenthasplacedanenormoustariffonsugarcaneethanol.TheObamaAdministrationrefusestoconsiderthepolicyprescriptionourresearchpointstoward.IthinkthatwhatwillhappeninWashing-tonlargelydependsonthepriceofoil.Ifthepriceofoilisnotveryhigh,thenIdon’tthinkthattherewillbeabigcallforincreasingdomesticproduction.

Interview with Professor Marc Weidenmier“Hedging Against Peak Oil Shocks”

November 2009Page8

2009-2010 Research AssistantsAanchalKapoor‘11AaronChampagne‘10AdityaBindal‘11AislingScott‘12

AndrewOetting‘12AnnaEames’13

CandaceAdelberg‘10CarissaTudor‘09ChaseGray‘12DanLockett‘10ElizabethRose‘11EmilyBrister‘09GeorgePosner‘12GrantParker‘11JakeRichardson‘10JenniferGood‘13JenniferRingoen‘12

JesseHustonJosephSwartley‘11JoshuaRedel‘10JustinEskind‘11

KevinWallentine‘12KristinaBergess‘12LauraHagen‘11MarkGose‘11

MitchellSkotarczyk‘11NathanDoctor‘11

NoahMcCormack‘09PeterMeyer‘12

RosabellaMagat‘12RyanShaffer‘12SandyRussell‘10

SaulSandoval–Perea(CGU)SeanHannley‘10

SethMcCormick‘12SzeWaiYuen‘12TravisHull‘10

WillLiWilliamHeinke‘10XiaotongLi‘12

By Anna Eames ‘13

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Interview with Professor Marc Weidenmier“Hedging Against Peak Oil Shocks”

OnOctober5th,2009,theMarianMinerCookAthenaeumwelcomedtherenownedwriterandecono-mistSilviaAnnHewletttospeakaboutthegrowingneedtoutilizewomenintheworkforcemoreefficiently.In2004,HewlettbecamethefoundingPresidentfortheCenterforWork-LifePolicy(CWLP)whereshechairsataskforceti-tledthe“HiddenBrainDrain.”Thistaskforceiscommittedtoanalyzingtheutilityandpotentialoffemaleworkersbyevaluatingcurrentworkplacepoliciesanddevelopingnewpolicieswith“enoughheftandtractiontodrivechange.” Sincethetaskforcewasfounded,over50globalcompaniesandorganizationsincludingtheCIA,WorldBank,andGooglehavejoined.Theseemployershavejoinedthetaskforcebecausetheyarelookingforwaystopreventtheirtalentedfemaleemployeesfrompermanentlyleaving.AccordingtoHewlett,95%ofwomenwhotakeacareerbreakendupworkingforadifferentcompanythantheonetheyleft.Byfindingbetterwaystoretaintalentedfemaleemployees,companiescanreducethecostsoftrain-ingnewworkersandpreventtheseemployeesfromjoiningcompetitors. Hewlettassertsthattheunderutilizationofwomencanbeexplainedthroughthevastdifferencesinthecareertrajectoriesofmenandwomen.Menusuallyhavelinearcareers;theystartworkaftertheireduca-tionanddon’tstopuntiltheyretire.Ontheotherhand,Hewlett’sresearchshowsthat37%ofwomenwilltakeacareerbreakforanaverageof2.3years.Thebiggestfactorpushingwomenoutoftheworkforceishavingkids,whichaccountsfor45%ofwomenwholeavetheworkforce.However,thereareanumberofothersignificantfactorsthatcausewomentoleavetheworkforce,suchascaringfortheirelders,feelingunderutilizedorappreciated,andbeingpassedforapromotion.Researchshowsthattheconsequencesofleavingtheworkforcearesignificant.Onaveragewomenwhore-enterthejobmarketaftertak-ingtimeoffpermanentlylose20%oftheirearningpower.Therearealsoproblemswithfindingajobinthefirstplace:outofthe93%ofwomenwhotrytore-entertheworkforce,only70%findjobs,andonly40%findjobswithseri-ousprospects.Hewlettassertsthattheproblemsassoci-atedwithre-enteringtheworkforcestemfromgenerallyheld,veryrigidconceptionsofwhatacareershouldbe.

Thefirsttraditionalcareerconceptionisthatthesteepestgradientofaworker’scareermustbewhentheyareinthere30’s.Asecondtraditionalconceptionisthatworkersneedtoprovide“full-timefacetime,”whichmeanswork-ingspecifichoursatspecificplaceswheretheirbossescansupervisetheirwork. TheCWLPhasfoundthatthebestsolutiontorevolutionizetraditionalcareerconceptionsandbetterutilizethetalentoffemaleworkersisflexiblehours.Sixyearsintotheir“flex”researchproject,theCWLPhasfoundthatmoreflexiblehoursleadtohighereconomicefficiencyandbetterbusinessperformance.Whileflexiblehourshavecertainlyshowntohelpwomenbalanceafamilylifewithoutsacrificingproductivityatwork,theyhavealsobeenshowntoincreasetheeconomicperformanceofmaleworkersaswell.Hewlettattributesthisincreaseinoverallproductivitytotheimprovedpsychologicaloutlookofaworkerwhohasachoiceaboutwhenandwheretheydotheirwork. Hewlettendedthetalkbyshowingjusthowfartheappealofflexiblehoursextendsbypresentingdataonthemotivationsofcollegegraduatesenteringthework-force.Shesurprisinglyfoundthatcollegegraduateshighlyvalueflexiblehours,evenoversalary.Thisdataillustratesthatyoungergenerationswanttochoosewhenandwheretheyworkbecauseitmakesthemfeelincontrolandgivesagreatersenseoffulfillmenttotheirlives. Essentially,Hewlett’sstudyshowsthatthenextgenerationofworkers,menandwomenalike,valueoppor-tunitiestoexpandtheirfulfillmentfromlifeingeneralmorethantheopportunitytobecomewealthy.Byrevampingtherigidcareermodelandofferingemployeesmotivationbeyondmoney,companiescanreducehumancapitalwaste,especiallythroughutilizingthetalentofwomenandappeal-ingtothehighestmotivationsofcollegegraduates.

Yes She Can: How to Better Utilize Female Workers

By Laura Hagen ‘11

Silvia Ann Hewlett

The Lowe Down Page9

Photo: Silvia Ann Hewlett at the Athenaeum

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ResearchAssociateProfessorKeilfoundthatthereisanab-senceofasystematicanalysisforitslargeeconomy,presentingauniqueopportunityforCMCandtheLoweInstitute.CMC’sclosenesstotheregionandexpertiseineconomicsprovidesasolidfoundationforittoplayamajorroleintheforecasting,reporting,andanalysisfortheInlandEmpireeconomy. Therearethreeintegralpartsofthismassiveproject.IncollaborationwithCMC’sRoseInstitute,theLowewillsooncreatetheInlandEmpireEconomicsandPublicPolicyOutlook.Essentially,thisOutlookwillbeanonlinenewslet-terthatwillbedistributedtotheprivatesector,publicsector,andacademicsoftheregion.TheLowe’scontributiontotheOutlookwillincludeinterviewswithbusinessleaders,articlesonspecificindustriesandtopics,aswellasdetailedeconomicreportsonkeyindustriesandtheeconomyasawhole.

Initially,thisonlinenewsletterwillbeissuedtwiceayearwiththegoalofissuingitquarterlyinthenearfuture. Beginningnextyear,theLoweInstitutewillteamupwithUCLA’sAndersonBusinessSchooltohostasemi-annualforecastingconference.Atthisjointconference,UCLAwillpresentreleventinformationandforecastsoftheU.S.economyandtheCaliforniaeconomy,whiletheLowewillfocusontheInlandEmpireeconomy.TheLowewillpres-entinformationcompiledthroughtheforecastingmodelsandreportsforboththeregionaleconomyasawholeanditsmajorindustries.ProfessorWeidenmierexplainsthat“theoverallideabehindtheforecastingmodelsistotakeadvan-tageofthesedifferentialfeatures[housing,logistics]toexplaincomparativeeconomicperformanceoftheInlandEmpirevis-à-visCaliforniaandtheUnitedStates.”Businessowners,governmentofficials,andacademicswillbeinattendancetogainawealthofvaluableinformationonnational,state,andlo-caleconomicdevelopment.Therewillalsobeaspecifictopicofinterestthatrelatestotheresultsoftheforecastsforeachconference.Forexample,iftheforecastingmodelsshowthatthehousingmarketwillturnaroundinthenextsixmonths,theconferencewouldhostapanelofacademicspecialistsandbusinessownersofthehousingsectortodiscusstheseresults. AnewfunctionoftheLowethatwillbedevelopedthroughthisprojectisRecessionDating.Apanelofaca-demicsandbusinessleaderswillformacommittee,withthepurposeofspecifyingwhenrecessionsbeginandendinCaliforniaandtheInlandEmpire.AlthoughthisisdoneatthenationallevelbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER),businesscyclesmaydiffersubstantiallybystateandregion.Therefore,recessiondatingwithastateandregionalfocuswillbemoreconsistentlyaccurate.Economiceventsandnewswilllargelydeterminewhenthesepredictionsaremadebythecommittee;however,theultimategoalistobeabletousetheinformationcompiledfromtheforecast-ingmodelstoeffectivelypredictthesedates.ProfessorKeilpointstothesignificantrolethatareliabledatingcommitteecouldplayinaneconomy,emphasizingthatitwouldpositivelyimpactbusinessdecisions.IftheLowe’sforecastinganddatinginformationprovestobeaccurate,thiswilleventuallystimu-latepopularinterestandleadtovisibilityinthenewsmedia. Oneofthemostimportantbenefitsresultingfromtheprojectisthatitwillprovidestudentswithagreatnum-berofuniqueopportunities.“Thereisanadditionalservicethatwewillprovide,whichistotrainstudentsinresearchmethods,”saysProfessorKeil.Studentshavealreadycontrib-utedasubstantialamounttothedevelopmentofallthreepri-marycomponentsoftheproject.FutureresponsibilitieswillincludewritingarticlesfortheOutlook,interviewingbusinessleaders,aswellascreatingpreliminaryeconomicreportsand

Creating an Empire — Continued from Page 1

AsasophomoreatPomonalastFebruary,AanchalKapoor‘11beganworkingasaresearchas-sistantforProfessorMarcWeidenmierattheLoweInstitute.SheworkedwithProfessorWeidenmierduringtheschoolyearandthenthroughoutthesummerasafull-timeresearchassistantonaprojectentitled“Hedg-ingAgainstPeakOilShocks.”Attheendofthesummer,KapoortransferredtoCMCandiscontinuingherworkattheLoweInstitute. Kapoor’sworkattheLowelastsummeralsoincluded“creatingadatabaseonstocksfromthe1930stoanalyzetheimpactoftheSEC(SecuritiesExchangeCommission)”forProfessorCronqvist.Thisfall,KapoorisworkingwithProfessorBurdekinonaprojectthatfocusesonthenearlyglobalshifttothegoldstandardinthe1930s.SheisalsoonateamofresearchassistantsthatisworkingontheInlandEmpireproject. AfterworkingontheseprojectsattheLoweforthepastseveralmonths,theforemostskillKapoorhasgainedisdataanalysis.Althoughshehadsomepastex-periencewithExcel,herworkattheLoweopenedhereyesto“whatStataandExcelcanreallydo.” Kapoor’sexperienceattheLowehasconvincedherthatworkingasaresearchassistantmakesallthedifferenceinpairingliberalartswith“acareer-oriented,pre-professionalapproach.”HerworkwithProfessorWeidenmiergaveher“anideaof…whattheywouldexpectwhenyougraduate,inafulltimejob.”

Aanchal Kapoor ‘11

Benefits of Economic ResearchBy Anna Eames ‘13

November 2009Page10

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newestwork,hiscritics,andhislifeasanunconventionalecono-mist.Hisspeech,co-sponsoredbytheLoweInstituteaspartofthe2009-2010Lowe-AthenaeumSpeakerSeries,wasbyfarthemostentertainingAthenaeumeventIhaveattendedduringmytimeatCMC. DeanGregoryHess,inhisintroductiontoDr.Levitt’sspeech,remarkedthat“whatmakesLevitt’svisitsuchagoodfithereisthatitseemslikesuchaholiday,suchacelebration.”ItsurefeltlikeacelebrationonceDr.Levittgotbehindthepodium.Hehadthecrowdroaringfromtheverybeginning. Dr.Levittbeganbyproposingascenario.YouandacoupleofyourbuddiesareintheClaremontVillageforanightout,youhaveallhadafewdrinkstoomany,andoneofyourfriendsasksyoutogivehimthekeystothecar.HewantstodrivebacktoCMC.Likeanyresponsiblefriendwoulddo,youdeclinehisrequestandtellhimtowalkhome.Thatiswhereyoumesseverythingup. Bytellingyourfriendtowalkthehalf-milebacktocam-pus,youhaveactuallymadehisjourneyhomemoredangerousthanitwouldhavebeenhadyougivenhimthekeysandlethimdriveback.AccordingtoDr.Levitt,“mileformile,itturnsouttobeeighttimesmoredangeroustowalkdrunkthantodrivedrunk.” ItispreciselytheseconclusionsthatmakeDr.Levittsoentertaining.Feweconomistshavetheability,nottomen-tionthecourage,tousedataandeconomicanalysistoestablishconclusionsonveryoddtopics.InSuperFreakonomics,Dr.Levitt,alongwithco-authorStephenDubner,asksquestionslike“whydoprostitutesmakelessmoneynowthantheydidacenturyago?”(Thesexualrevolution.)“Caneatingakangaroosavetheplanet?”(Yes.)“Whatdohurricanes,heartattacks,andhighwaydeathshaveincommon?”(Readthebook.)Dr.Levitt’scommentshadtheaudiencehowling,buttheyalsobroughtupamuchmoreseriouspoint.Ifabsurdeconomicscanbeusedtoanswersuchmundanequestions,mightitalsobeabletoanswermoreimportantones,whilestillmaintainingitshilariousnature?Dr.Levittsuggeststhatitcan. ThemostinterestingandcontroversialchapterofLev-

itt’sbookdiscussesthepossibilitiesforsolvingourglobalwarm-ingcrisis.Duringhisspeech,heproposedthatitispossibletooffsetourcarbondioxideemissionsbysimplyusingtwo“hoses,”placednearthepoles,tocontinuouslydumpcarbondioxideoutofouratmosphereandintoouterspace.Hecontendsthatthehoseswouldonlyhavetobeaslargeasstandardgardenhosestobeeffective. Duringthequestionandanswerperiod,afewstudentsexpresseddoubtsaboutDr.Levitt’sconclusionsregardingglobalwarming.Levitt,however,didafinejobofaddressingtheircon-cerns,pointingtodatacollectedbyhim,othereconomists,andinfluentialscientiststhatsupporthisprocessandconclusions.Healsonoted,toawaveoflaughterfromtheaudience,thatoneofhisdetractors,theUnionofConcernedScientists,isactuallynotagroupofscientists. DespitethescrutinyontheglobalwarmingchapterofSuperFreakonomics,theeveningwasquitelight-heartedandenter-taining.Dr.Levittsharedanumberofpersonalstorieswiththeaudience:• Hishighschoolcalculusteacherrememberedhimathistwentyyearreunion.Unfortunately,itwasbecauseDr.Levitthadthedubiousdistinctionofbeingtheonlystudenttogeta2ontheAPCalculusexamintheteacher’sentirecareer.• Inapaperhewrotein2001,hecalculatedtheexternal-itycostofdrunkdriving.About30centspermile.• Heoncepaidaprostitute$400anhourtoteachalec-tureforhimattheUniversityofChicago.Additionally,hetaughtherbetterprofitmaximizationmethodsinreturnfordataonallofthetricksshehadeverperformed. Dr.Levitt’sspeechwasinsightful,intriguing,andabsolute-lyhilarious.Blendingeconomicsandcomedyseamlesslyintoone,Dr.Levittisjusttherockstarfigurethatthestudyofeconomicsneedstogiveittheattentionitrightfullydeserves.Economicsisoftenportrayedasadull,boringsubject.Itisdifficulttogetmostpeopletocareaboutshort-runaveragecostcurves,deadweightloss,andprice-to-earningsratios.However,Dr.Levitt’sfirstbookhassoldoverfourmillioncopiesto-date,andbyusingcomedy,heisdoinghisbesttogivethefieldtheimagemakeoveritneeds,onetrickatatime.

memos.Studentsandfacultymemberswillruntheforecastingmodelstogetherandindepen-dently,providingstudentswiththeopportunitytoapplywhattheylearnintheircoursestotherealworld.InthewordsofProfessorWeiden-mier,“studentsplayanintegralpartinallaspectsofthisproject”andhavetheopportunityto“usethelatesttechniquesineconometricsandstatisticstoanalyzeeconomicactivityintheInlandEmpire.”

ThiscomprehensiveprojectpresentsasignificantopportunityfortheLoweInstitutetoestablishitselfasthedominantcenterforeconomicinformationontheInlandEmpire.BycontinuingtocombinethemotivationofCMC’shighcaliberstudentswiththeskillsofitsdis-tinguishedfaculty,theLoweInstituteofPoliticalEconomyforecaststhatitwillachieveitsambi-tiousgoalanddevelopthisprestigiousreputa-tioninthenearfuture.

Steve Levitt — Continued from Page 1

“students play an integral part in all aspects of

this project”

The Lowe Down Page11

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Lowe Institute to Host Applied Microeconomics Conference By Chase Gray ‘12 ThiscomingApril,theLoweInstitutewillco-hostthefirstannualSouthernCaliforniaConferenceinAppliedEconomics.EstablishedinconjunctionwiththeBergerInstituteforWork,FamilyandChildren,theconferencewillbeheldattheClaremontCol-legesonFriday,April16,2010.TheconferencewillincludeavarietyofpaperpresentersfromcollegesanduniversitiesthroughoutSouthernCalifornia.TheorganizingcommitteeincludesrepresentativesfromCMC,UCLA,UC-Irvine,UC-SanDiego,UC-SantaBarbara,andUSC. Presenterswilldiscussawidevarietyoftopics,includingexperimentaleconom-ics,laboreconomics,healtheconomics,populationeconomics,lawandeconomics,urbaneconomics,andpubliceconomics.ThefirstofitskindinSouthernCalifornia,theeventissuretobeentertainingandinsightfulforallwhoattend. Interested in submitting a paper?TheboardmembersoftheSouthernCaliforniaConferenceinAppliedMicroeconomicswillselectthepaperstobepresentedattheconference.ThedeadlineforpapersubmissionstotheconferenceisJanuary31,2010.PleasesendallpapersubmissionstoProfessorMarcWeidenmieratmweidenmier@cmc.edu.WeinvitepapersubmissionsfromallcollegesanduniversitiesinSouthernCalifornia.Facultyandgraduatestudentsareencouragedtosubmitpaperstotheconference.Paperpresenterswillbepaidanhonorariumof$300tocovertravelexpenses.TheBergerandLoweIn-stituteswillprovideacontinentalbreakfast,lunch,anddinner.

Organizing Committee:LeahPlattBoustan(UCLA)JanBrueckner(UC-Irvine)

GordonDahl(UC–SanDiego)EricHelland(CMC)

PeterKuhn(UC-SantaBarbara)DariusLakdawalla(USC)

Board of GovernorsJamesH.Cheney‘65

RobertM.Cheney‘94FounderandWealthAdvisorWestridgeWealthStrategies

JohnCosgrovePresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficerCosgrove/MeurerProductions,Inc.

JosephH.DavisPrincipalandChiefEconomist

FixedIncome&EconomicStrategyGroupsTheVanguardGroup

DavidI.FisherChairmanandDirectorTheCapitalGroup,Inc.

PamelaB.GannPresident

ClaremontMcKennaCollege

BillieC.GreerDirector,LosAngelesOffice

OfficeofGovernorArnoldSchwarzenegger

LisaHansenChairmanoftheBoard

TheKennethT.&EileenL.NorrisFoundation

BethLoweCommunityVolunteer

RobertJ.Lowe‘62(Chair)ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficer

LoweEnterprises,Inc.

SueLowe

ThomasL.Lowe,Jr.‘56

JosephD.Matt‘99VicePresident

CapitalResearchGlobalInvestors

RobertK.MontgomerySeniorPartner

Gibson,Dunn&Crutcher

KennethM.Novack‘67Chairman

SchnitzerSteelIndustries

WalterB.RoseVentureConsulting

JohnC.SicilianoSeniorManagingDirectorandCEOof

InvestmentBoutiquesNewYorkLifeInvestments

Dr.BryanWilsonTaylorIIPresidentandChiefEconomist

GlobalFinancialData

RobertM.WeekleySeniorVicePresidentLoweEnterprises,Inc.

MarcD.WeidenmierDirector

LoweInstituteofPoliticalEconomyClaremontMcKennaCollege

Thank youto our Fall 2009Newsletter Staff:

EditorDanLockett‘10

Staff WritersLauraHagen‘11MarkGose’11ChaseGray‘12PeterMeyer‘12JenniferGood‘13

Staff Writer / LayoutAnnaEames‘13

PhotographerElizabethRose‘11

From left: Laura Hagen, Mark Gose, Chase Gray, Anna Eames, Peter Meyer, Dan Lockett, Jenn Good

500E.NinthStreet

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Claremont,CA91711

USA

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Fax:909-607-8008

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