Creating an Empire InconjunctionwiththeAndersonBusinessSchoolatUCLA,theLoweisworkingonaprojectthatwillultimatelyestablishtheInstituteasalead-ingeconomicexpertontheInlandEmpire.Surprisingly,asthe14thlargestmetropolitanareainthenation,theInlandEmpirelacksanextensivetechnicalanalysisofitseconomy.Therefore,themaingoaloftheprojectistofillthisvoidbyproducingcomprehensiveeconomicforecastsandeconomicreportsfortheregionofRiversideCountyandSanBernardinoCounty.Overall,theseserviceswillspecificallytargettheregion’sprivatesectorbyprovidinginformationthatbusinessescanusetoimprovetheirdecisionmakingandplanningabilities. Currently,theInlandEmpireisinthemidstofanunprecedentedeco-nomicdownturnwithbothofitseconomicgems,thehousingindustryandthe
logisticsindustry,inanabysmalcondition.Theimpactofthe‘GreatRecession’onthisareaissubstantiallymoresevererelativetotheU.S.asawhole.Forexample,theunemploymentrateintheInlandEmpirehasincreasedbyapproximatelyfourpercentagepointsmorethantheU.S.unemploymentratesincethebeginningoftherecession,whichiscurrentlyaround14%.LookingtostudythereasonsforwhytheInlandEmpireisparticularlyhurting,InstituteDirectorProfessorWeidenmierand
By Dan Lockett ‘10
Friends Don’t Let Friends Walk Drunk: StevenLevitt Comes to CMC Dinnerreservationsfilledupwithinhoursofgoingonline.StudentsstoodoutsidetheAthenaeumformorethananhourjusttogetaseatatthebackoftheroom.Lessfortunatestudents,faculty,andlocalresidentspackedMcKennaAuditoriumjusttoseetheeventvialivevideostream.Dr.StevenLevitt’shighlyanticipatedvisittoCMChadthefeelofakeynoteeventbeforemostofusevenhadtheopportunitytocatchaglimpseoftheaward-winningauthorandeconomist.TheAthenaeumtookonanincrediblefeel
thatnight.NeverhaveIseentheAthenaeumsohot,crowded,ener-getic,andsuperfreaky. Justthreedaysafterthereleaseofhisnewestbook,SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance,StevenLevittcametoClaremontMcKenna’sMarianMinerCookAthenaeumtospeakabouthis
By Chase Gray ‘12
LOWE INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
November2009
In this issue:
MessagefromtheDirector
InterviewwithProfessorBurdekin
AnEconomicModelofTerrorism
ADedicatedResearchAssistant
WeidenmierandBernsteinPresenttoBankofEngland
U.S.Immigra-tionPolicy
InterviewwithPro-fessorWeidenmierHowtoBetterUtilizeFemaleWorkersBenefitsofEco-nomicResearch
MicroeconomicsConference
Creating an Empire—Continued on Page 10
Steven Levitt—Continued on Page 11
THE LOWE DOWN
VolumeII,Issue1
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12
10
9
8
6
6
5
4
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Photo: Steve Levitt meets students before Ath event
TheLoweInstituteisfinishingitssecondyearoftheLoweFaculty-StudentResearchProgram.Overthe2008-2009academicyear,morethan50studentsworkedattheLoweInstituteonabout16differentacademicprojectsrangingfromlaboreconomicstoeconomichistory.About10studentsworkedonpublicpolicyprojectsthroughtheLowe-RANDinitiativeunderthedirectionofCMCProfessorEricHelland.Thestudentsarecurrentlyfinishingupaprojectthatexaminestheeffectofpayonthequalityofjudges.Nextspring,studentswillexaminevariousaspectsoftortreforminthepharmaceuticalindustry.
Facultyandstudentshaveco-authoredfivepapersthathavebeenpublishedineconomicsjournalsoverthelastyear.BrockBlombergandGregHess,forexample,publishedapaperwithHunterJackson’08onoilandterrorisminEconomicsandPolitics,aleadinginterdisciplinaryjournalintheareaofpoliticaleconomy.ProfessorsHughsonandWei-denmierpublishedapaperontheimportanceofthelenderoflastresortfunctionintheJournalofFinancialEconomicswhichiswidelyregardedasoneofthetoptwoorthreejournalsinbusinessschool.TheLoweInstitutealsoinvitedfivespeakerstocometocampustomeetwithstudentsandfacultyoverthe2008-09AcademicYear.PerhapsthetalkthatstimulatedthegreatestamountofstudentinterestwasbyDanielHamermeshfromtheUniversityofTexas.HecametoCMCtodiscuss“BeautyandtheLaborMarket.”Hamermeshdiscussedtheeconomicbenefitsofgoodlooksandhowitaf-fectspeople’scareerchoiceandsalary.
Goingforward,weplantocontinuetheLoweFaculty-StudentResearchProgramandthejointspeakerserieswiththeAthenaeum.Approximately60studentsshowedupforthefallLoweBBQ.SteveLevittrecentlycametotheAthenaeumtodiscusshislatestbook,Superfreakonomics.TheeventwassoldoutwithinanhourthatitwaspostedontheAthenaeumwebsite.TheLoweInstitutehasteamedupwiththestatistics/econometricclassestosponsoracompetitioncalled,“The2010NCAAMarchMadnessTournamentGame.”Asoneoftheirhomeworkassignments,studentswillbuildastatisticalmodeltopredictthemarginofvictoryinthe2010NCAAbasketballtournamentgames.Thepersonwiththebestmodelwillwinaprize.WeencourageallCMCstudents(notjuststudentsinstatisticsclasses)toparticipateinthegame.
TheLoweInstitutehasstartedanInlandEmpireinitiative.TheInstitutehiredateamofresearchassistantsthissummertocollecteconomicdataontheInlandEmpirefromthemid1970’s.Thedatahasbeenusedtoanalyzehistori-calandcurrenteconomicconditionsintheInlandEmpirewhichisthe14thlargestmetropolitanareaintheUnitedStates.TheInstituteisplanningtoholdaneconomicforecastingconferencewithUCLAAndersonin2010.Wehopetomaketheforecastingconferenceanannualevent.
TheLoweandRoseInstituteswillpublishTheInlandEmpireOutlookthisfall.ThenewsletterwillsummarizeeconomicandpoliticalconditionsintheInlandEmpirewhichiscurrentlythefourteenthlargestmetropolitanareaintheUnitedStates.Weareinthepro-cessofdevelopinganemaillistsothatwecansendthenewslettertolocalgovernmentsandleadingbusinessesintheInlandEmpire.
WewouldliketothankeveryonefortheirsupportoftheLoweInstitute.
Regards,
Marc Weidenmier
Message from the Director
Photo: Students at Lowe Luncheon
Firstoff,IwanttosaythatErinLiu(’08)completedmostofthisresearchasherseniorthesis.Iaddedsomesub-materialbutthecoreofthepaperisherwork.Thefirstpartofourre-searchinvestigatestheim-pactofforeignoilshocksontheHawaiianeconomy.Thesecondpartofourresearchexaminestheviabilityofproducing
ethanolfromsugarcaneinHawaii,andthepoten-tialofthisproductioninmitigatingthedetrimentaleconomicimpactsofforeignoilshocks.Aninvestiga-tionofHawaii’ssugarcaneindustrybegsthefollow-ingquestion:Cansomethingbedonetosimultane-ouslymakeuseofHawaii’spotentialforsugarcaneproductionandreduceitssensitivitytooilshocks?Brazil’sextensiveproductionofsugarcane-convertedethanolhasreduceditsdependenceonimportedoilfrom70%to10%inthelastfortyyears,providinganexampleofthebenefitsthatethanolproductioncanprovide.ApplyingthisstrategytoHawaiicouldyieldsimilareconomicbenefits.
Q: How did you test your hypothesis?
A:Inordertotestthefirstpartofourhypothesis,weappliedamodeldevelopedbyJ.D.Hamilton,aneconomicsprofessoratU.C.SanDiego.ThemodelmeasuresthesensitivityofHawaii’srealpersonalincomegrowthtooilshocksusingquarterlydatafromMarch1966toDecember2008.ControllingforothersignificantfactorsontheHawaiianecon-omysuchastourism,wemeasuredthedecreaseinquarterlypersonalincomeattributedtoanoilshockinthepreviousyear.Forthesecondpartofthistest,weapplieddataforestimatedethanolproductionandestimatedethanolcoststoseveralpotentialsce-
nariosinordertodetermineifanethanolindustrywouldbeeconomicallyfeasibleandbeneficialtotheHawaiianeconomy.
Q: What were your results?
A:Theresultsoftheoilshocksensitivityresearcharefairlystraightforward.Theeconometricresultssuggestthatoilshocksproduceanaverage3.83%decreaseinHawaii’srealpersonalincomegrowthoneyearlater,clearlyshowingthatincomegrowthinHawaiiissignificantlyharmedbyoilshocks.Whiletheimplementationofdifferentethanolproductionscenarioswouldvaryintheextentoftheireffects,theyallwouldhelpHawaiimoveawayfromitsdependenceonforeignoilandreducetheharmfuleffectsofoilshocksonitseconomy.
Q: What are the implications of your find-ings?
A:Sugarcane-producedethanolhastremendouspotentialtoreduceHawaii’scurrentdependenceonforeignoil,whichamountstoastaggering50millionbarrelsofoilayear.IfHawaiitakesfulladvantageofitspotentialforsugarcaneproductionusingBrazilasanexample,itwillprovidebenefitsbeyondthereductionofforeignoildependencesuchasdiversifyingtheeconomy,creatingjobs,andstimulatinginvestment.
Q: Does your research provide any public policy prescriptions?
A:StateandfederallegislationcouldprovidethesparkneededtobringaboutthedevelopmentofadominantethanolindustryinHawaii.Lawmakers,drivenbythegoalofastateeconomyfueledby70percentcleanenergyby2030,arealreadyworkingtoencouragelocalproductionofrenewableenergy.HawaiianSenatorDanielInouyeandCongressmanNeilAbercrombiehavealreadysecured$9millionoffederalfundsforpursuingethanolprojects.Sub-sidizinganddevelopingtheethanolindustrycouldbeasmartinvestmentbytheHawaiiangovernmentbecauseofitspotentialsignificantbenefitsthataresupportedbythisresearch.
Sugar in Hawaii: The Potential for Sugar Cane Ethanol in Reducing Energy Dependence
Interview withProfessor Richard Burdekin
By Peter Meyer ‘12
The Lowe Down Page3
Photo: Professor Burdekin
Althoughsufficientdataexiststocorrelateeco-nomicdisadvantagewithterroristactivity,theworkofProfessorBlombergandhisresearchassistants,JakeRichardson’10andCandaceAdelberg’10,demonstratesthatthisisavastoversim-plification.Inreality,there
isacomplicatedandmulti-facetedcorrelationbetweenthepoliticalandeconomicconditionsofacountryandthelikelihoodofaterroristattack.Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergarewritingachapterfortheResearch in Trans-portation Economics Volume on the Economics of Transportation Securitythatreflectsthisreality,entitledAn Economic Model of Terrorism. Itwillbeoneoftheonlychaptersinthebookwrittenbyaneconomist.Themajor-ityofthebookwillbeauthoredbytranspor-tationspecialiststhatexplorespecifichypo-theticalevents,suchasthecostsofaterroristattackontheportsofLosAngeles.However,Blomberg’schapterwillprovideamacroeco-nomicmodelofterrorismforthebroadercontextofthebook. ThemodelforterrorismusedinthispaperisthesamemodelthatBlombergfoundtobeeffectiveinhispreviousworkfromaslateasthe1990s.Withupdateddata,there-sultsshowthatwhenthemodelisextendedtothepresent,theconnectionbetweentheeconomyandterrorismisslightlyweaker.Thismayreflectchangesinthenatureofterrorisminthepasttwodecades. “Someofthenewaspectsofterrorismthatwe’reseeinglatelymayhavelesstodowithwhatwe’remodelinghere,”saidBlom-berg.“WithAl-Qaedaandterrorismtoday,it’snotsomuchduetoabadeconomy,atleastintheshortrun.” Duetothecomplexitiesofterrorism,therearemanyotherfactorsthatmayhavebecomemoreinfluentialthaneconomiccondi-tionsindeterminingthelikelihoodofaterror-
istattackoccurringatagiventime.However,allofthesefactorscannotbetakenintocon-siderationbecauseamodelmustbesimplifiedtobepractical. “Youmighthavetodevelopatheoreti-calandempiricalframeworkbasedontribes,civilwar,andethnicdifferences,”saidBlom-berg.“Butwhenyougoonthatthere’snotalotofpredictivepower.” Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergusedtwodifferentapproachestofindausefulmodel.Thefirstcomparedonlytheeffectofcurrenteconomicconditionsonthelikelihoodofaterroristattack. “Thissimpleprobabilisticviewdidn’tsayallthatmuchaboutwhatwasgoingon,”saidRichardson. Forthesecondapproach,theyranamorecomplexeconometricmodelthatusedeightdifferenteconomicandterroristactivityconditionsforboththepastandpresentpe-riods.Thisdatawasthendividedintocountrycategoriesbasedonincomeanddemocracy. Thesecondmodeldemonstratedthattheeffectsonterroristactivityvarybetweencountriesbasedonpoliticalstructureandlevelofeconomicdevelopment.Blomberg,Richardson,andAdelbergfoundthatifthedis-sidentgrouplackedresources,thechanceofaterroristattackincreasedmorethaniftheeconomywasweakoverall.Anotherfindingwasthatcountrieswithunsoundinstitutions,withmorecorruptionandlessavailableedu-cationandhealthcare,weremoresusceptibletoterroristattacks.Aspecificexampleofthesefindingsisthatthechanceofaterroristattackinanon-democraticcountryafteraneconomiccontractioninthepreviousperiodwastwicethatofademocraticcountryunderthesameconditions. “Supposethereisaconstantstreamofterroristattacks,”Blombergexplained.“What’sgoingtocausethatstreamtoturnintoariver?IntheU.S.,youwon’tfindmanythingsthatwillchangethat.Inanothercoun-try,youmayseethatthestreamturnsinto
An Economic Model of TerrorismBy Jenn Good ‘13
November 2009Page4
Photo: Professor Blomberg
ragingwaterbasedoncertaincon-ditions.” Themanyfactorsshownbythismodeltoaffectterroristattacksdemonstratethedifficultyoffindingeffectivepublicpoliciestopreventterrorism.Forexample,thechaptershowsthatjustgivingmoneytocountriesisnotneces-sarilyhelpfulinpreventingterror-ismifthedissidentgroupsdonotreceiveanyresources.Infact,themodelshowsthatiftheeliteorthegovernmentpossessesmoreresources,thedonationcouldactuallyincreasethechancesofaterroristattack. “Ourresultsarecomplicat-ed,”saidBlomberg.“Andourpublicpolicyimplicationsarecomplicated,butthat’stherealworld.” RichardsonandAdelbergalsolearnedfromtheirresearchwithBlombergthatdecipheringtherealworldmeaningoftheirresultsisachallenge. “Alotoftimesinclassesthemodelsworkperfectly,butintherealworldtheydon’t,”saidAdelberg.“Therearealotofbar-riersthatyouruninto,especiallywiththedata.Youhavetobecre-ativetofigureouthowtocomeupwithacoherentstory.” ThedifficultyofinterpretingeconomicdataandtheresultingimplicationsispartofwhatdrawsBlombergtoeconomicresearch. “That’sthebeautyofeco-nomics.Alotofpeoplethinkitshouldjustbesimple...andit’snot,”saidBlomberg.“Therealworldweworkinisacomplicatedanimal,andwhentryingtolookatalotofprocessesatonceyourealizeit’snotgoingtocomeouteasy.”
Asadedicatedresearchassistantsincehersopho-moreyear,CandaceAdelberg‘10hashadtheopportu-nitytoworkonseveraldifferentprojectsattheLoweInstitute.SincelastMay,AdelberghassuccessfullyledateamoffiveresearchassistantsthatwillcontinuetomakeheadwayontheInlandEmpireprojectthroughouttheschoolyear.“WhileworkingattheLoweoverthesummer,Ipracticedapplyingeconometricmethodstomyresearch,gainingtechnicalknowledgeaswellasagreatappreciationfortheentireresearchprocess.” ThroughoutherexperiencesattheLowe,Can-dacehasworkedonprojectswithProfessorsArndt,Blomberg,Keil,andWeidenmier.Oneparticularlyinter-estingprojectthatshecontributedtowasProfessorBlomberg’spaperthatfocusesontheeconomicimpactoftheU.S.troopsurgeinIraq.Adelberghasalsoco-authoredapaperwithProfessorKeilthatcomparesrecentbusinesscyclesintheU.S.,California,andtheInlandEmpire.FromthecurrentInlandEmpireproject,shehasgainedadministrativeexperiencewhilehavingtheuniqueopportunitytoapplytheforecastingmethodsshelearnedinherclassestorealresearch. Asaresultofherhardwork,Candacehasac-quiredmanyvaluableskillsthatwillhelpherinthefuturewhenshebecomesengagedineconomicpolicyworkafterCMC.AdelberghasprovenherselftobeavaluableassetfortheLoweInstitute,andshewillcon-tinuetoplayasignificantroleonresearchprojectsthroughouttheremainderofhersenioryear.
Candace Adelberg ‘10
A Dedicated Research AssistantBy Dan Lockett ‘10
The Lowe Down Page5
Photo: Candace Adelberg ‘10
Athenaeum—OnOctober29th,2009,GordonHan-son,arenownedeconomicsprofessorattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,spokeaboutawidelydebated“hottopic”issue:U.S.immigrationpolicy.HedescribedthecurrentU.S.policytowardbothillegalandlegalimmigration,analyzeditseconomic
impact,andconcludedwithwaysinwhichCon-gresscaneffectivelyaddressthepoliticalconun-drumofimmigration. AccordingtoHanson,theU.S.hasex-periencedsteadygrowthinillegalimmigrationforthepastthirtyyears.ThisislargelybecausetheU.S.hasadoptedanaccommodatingpolicytowardimmigrantsbyprovidingthem,amongotherrightsandbenefits,freehealthcareandaccesstopublicschooleducation.Inaddition,astudyshowsthataworkerintheU.S.canearnawagethatis2.5timesgreaterthantheaveragewageinMexico,wherethemajorityoftheim-migrantscomefrom.Consequently,theseincen-tiveshavespurredaninfluxofundocumentedworkers. InordertoreducethenumberofillegalimmigrantscrossingU.S.borders,Congresshasestablishedbothborderandinteriorenforce-ment.Thereareover20,000borderpatrolof-ficerswhoconcentrateonurbanareasalongtheborder,andanother20,000CustomandBorderProtectionagentswhoscreenpassengersandcargoat300portsofentry.Asforinteriordefense,CongressformedtheU.S.Immigration
LoweInstituteDirectorMarcWeidenmierandHMCAlumniAsafBernsteinpresentedtheirpaper,Can a Lender-of-Last-Resort Stabilize Financial Markets?Lessons from the Founding of the Fed,toaconferencehostedbytheFinancialStabilityDivisionoftheBankofEnglandlastSeptember.Theconferenceincludedrepresentativesfromover20centralbanksandfo-cusedonthequestion:“towhatextentdoespolicymattertomaintainingfinancialstability?” WeidenmierandBernsteinhelpedanswerthatquestionthroughtheirpaper,whichexaminesfinan-cialmarketvolatilitybeforeandafterthecreationoftheFederalReserve.Typically,thespecificeffectsofthecreationoftheFedarepracticallyimpossibletocalculateduetoconflatingvariables.However,byonlyexaminingthemonthsofSeptemberandOctober,theywereabletoisolatetheseeffectstoshowthatacentralbankindeedlowersvolatilityinfinancialmarkets.Thelogicbehindthisisthatduetothecostsofmovingcropstomarketduringthefallharvestseason,thedemandforloanswouldsharplyincreaseduringSeptemberandOctober,frequentlyresultinginilliquidfinancialmarkets.Aconsequenceofthisil-liquiditywasthatnearlyallofthemajorpanicsoftheNationalBankperiodoccurredduringthefallharvestseason,whenloaninterestratesweresignificantlymorevolatilerelativetotherestoftheyear.AfterthecreationoftheFed,thevolatilityofmonthlycallloanratesduringthesemonthslowereddrastically,whichsignifiesthattheFedactingasalenderoflastresortdidhaveapositiveeffectonfinancialmarkets. Thepresentationwaswellreceivedatthecon-ference.WeidenmierandBernsteinreceivedmanypositivecomments,includingonethatincitedthemtowriteafollowuppaperonhowmarginsaffectfinan-cialmarketsthroughliquidity. ThepapertheypresentedisavailableontheLoweInstitutewebpage.Itwillbepublishedinanup-comingeditionoftheprestigiousJournalofFinancialEconomics,whichisthesecondmostreadfinancialpublicationamongbusinessschoolsandhasanarticleacceptancerateofunder8%.
Marc Weidenmier and Asaf Bernstein Give Presentation to Bank of England
By Laura Hagen ‘11
Gordon Hanson
U.S. ImmigrationPolicy: An Economic Perspective
By Mark Gose ‘11
Photo: Professor Hanson
November 2009Page6
andCustomsEnforcementagencyasapartoftheHomelandSecurityActof2002.ThisbranchofHome-landSecuritynotonlyinvestigatescrimescommittedbyillegalimmigrantsintheU.S.,butalsoensuresthedepartureofallremovablealiensthroughfairenforce-mentoftheU.S.immigrationlaws.Overall,thebudgetforimmigrationenforcementisaround$15billion.Yetdespitethishighcostandlargeenforcementeffort,theU.S.governmenthasfailedtoslowtheflowofillegalimmigrants.AccordingtoHanson,astudyshowsthatover500,000immigrantsstillentertheU.S.illegallyeveryyear. Thislargeinflowofillegalimmigrantsmustbetakenintoconsiderationwhenshapingpolicyforlegalimmigration.TheUnitedStates’mainobjectiveforpermittinglegalimmigrationistofosterthereunifica-tionoffamilies.Hansonexplainsthatapproximatelytwo-thirdsoftheimmigrantswhoreceivegreencardsareeitherimmediaterelativesofU.S.citizensorbeingsponsoredbyU.S.families.However,withtheincreas-ingnumberofillegalimmigrants,theU.S.governmentmustchoosebetweenadjustingthecurrentimmigra-tionquotastolowertheamountoflegalimmigrantsorfurtherstrengthenborderandinteriorenforcement. Althoughillegalimmigrationinflictsseriouscosts,Hansonalsohighlightstheeconomicbenefitsthatarisefromamoreopendoorpolicy.First,itisimportanttonotethatimmigrantinflowsaresensitivetothebusinesscycleandcreateamoremobilelaborforce.WhentheU.S.experiencesaneconomicboom,employersinlow-skilledindustrieshaveahighdemandforimmigrantsbecausetheynotonlyfillthegapoflow-skilledworkersintheU.S.butalsocanbemovedfairlyeasilyacrossregionsandoccupations.Hansonstatedthat,“Illegalworkersaremobile.TheycouldbelayingcarpetinVegasoneweek,andputtingupadry
wallinGeorgiathenext.”Furthermore,asurplusinlaborwillleadtoadecreaseinwages,therebydepress-ingconsumerprices.Therefore,illegalimmigrationdoesprovideeconomicbenefitstobothU.S.employ-ersandconsumers. Ontheotherhand,workerswhocompetewithimmigrantsdosuffer.Butsincelow-skilledlaborisrelativelyscarceintheU.S.,thelosstothosecompet-ingwithimmigrantsissmallcomparedtothegaintoU.S.employers.U.S.taxpayersarebyfarthebiggestlosersandthestrongestadvocatesforgreaterenforce-ment.Theproblemisthatimmigrantsreceivegovern-mentservicesbutdonotpaytheirfullshareoftaxes.IthasbeenestimatedthatillegalimmigrationcostsU.S.taxpayers$10billionperyear! Sinceincreasingenforcementmaybeafutileat-tempttoslowthewaveofillegalimmigration,Hansonoffersanotheracourseofaction.First,allowundocu-mentedworkerstoentertheU.S.butrequireanentryfee,whichshouldbelargeenoughtodeterunmoti-vatedimmigrants.Second,makethenumberofvisasavailablesensitivetothebusinesscycleandsellthematauctionrates.WhenthereisaboomintheU.S.,moreimmigrantswillwanttoenter,sothegovernmentcanauctionoffmorevisas.SellingthematauctionratesasopposedtofixedrateswillhelptheU.S.findthemostwillingandmotivatedworkers.Finally,allowtheillegalimmigrantstoearngreencards.Ultimately,thesepoliciesforceundocumentedworkerstopayapricetoparticipateintheU.S.laborforcewhileatthesametimeoffersthemincentivetoabidebythelawbyallowingthemtoearngreencards.Whetherornotthisisaviablestrategytomanageillegalimmigrationisyettobedetermined.OnecanonlyhopethattheU.S.governmentwillsoonfindasolutiontothiscriticalproblem.
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Southern California Applied Microeconomics ConferenceFriday, April 16, 2010
Board of Governors MeetingWinter 2010 T.B.D.
The Lowe Down Page7
Q: What is the testable hypothesis of your paper?A:Brazilistheonlyoneofthetenlargesteconomiesintheworldthathasdra-maticallyreduceditsdependencyonforeignoilinthelast30years.Byincreasingdomesticoilproductionandintroducingsugarcaneethanolasanenergyalternative,Brazilreduceditsoilimportsby60%.Mostcountrieshavevirtuallynoalternativeenergy,butsugarcaneethanolaccountsforover22%ofenergyconsumptioninBrazilwhileoilaccountsforonly36%.Basedonthispremise,theA.E.I.(AmericanEnterpriseInstitute)askedmetoworkonaprojectcalledHedging Against Peak Oil Shocks.ThefocuswastheextenttowhichincreasingdomesticenergyproductioncouldshieldtheUnitedStatesfromoilshocks.Oneofthemainhypotheseswastoshowthatincreasingdomesticenergyproductiongeneratesgreaterincomeandconsumptionsmoothing,reducingthenegativeeffectsofoilshocks.Oilshocksarelikeataxbecausetheyreduceproductionandraiseprices.Wefoundthat,duringanoilshock,thereisasubstantialriseinunemploymentinstatesthatdonothaveanenergysectorwhilethisdoesnotoccurinenergy-producingstates.
Q: How did you test your hypothesis?A:Welookedatsomeeconomicmodelsthatmeasuretheextenttowhichyougetconsumptionsmoothingacrossthestates,andwefoundthatenergy-producingstatesshowtwiceasmuchsmoothingasnon-energy-producingstates.Wealsolookedatemploymentratesduringoilshocks,andwefoundevidencethatemploy-mentgoesupinenergy-producingstatesduetomultipliereffects.Athrivingoilsectorcreatespositivespinoffsintherestoftheeconomy.Forexample,the7-11nexttotheoilrigmighthiremoreemployees.
Q: What are the implications of your findings?A:Intermsofenergyproduction,thisstudyimpliesthatincreasingtheproductionofnaturalgasisthebestwayfortheU.S.topartiallyoffsetoilshocks.Notonlyisnaturalgascleanerthanoil,buttheU.S.hasmorenaturalgasreservesthanoilreserves.OurfindingsindicatethatsmoothingouteconomicactivitybyreducingU.S.dependenceonforeignoilwouldoffsetthenegativeeffectsofoilshocks.JimHamilton,afamousoilshockexpertinSanDiego,estimatesthatifoilpriceshadnotsky-rocketedtonearly$150abarrel,therecessionwouldhavestartedap-proximatelysixmonthslater.Importingsendsmoneyoverseas,whereasincreasingdomesticproductionallowsustokeepthegainsfrompayingdomesticworkersanddomesticownersofcapital.Consequently,theyaremorelikelytospendtheirmoneydomestically,whichhelpsoffsetthenegativeeffectsofanoilshock.
Q: Does your research provide any public policy prescriptions?A:Youcan’tavoidoilshocks,butyoucanminimizetheirimpacttoacertainextent.ThispaperexemplifiesthefactthattheU.S.cansmoothoutoilshocksbyincreasingdomesticenergyproductionthroughoil,naturalgas,orboth.Rightnow,thealterna-tiveenergyoptionswehavearehighlyinefficient,withtheexceptionofsugarcaneethanol.Unfortunately,thefederalgovernmenthasplacedanenormoustariffonsugarcaneethanol.TheObamaAdministrationrefusestoconsiderthepolicyprescriptionourresearchpointstoward.IthinkthatwhatwillhappeninWashing-tonlargelydependsonthepriceofoil.Ifthepriceofoilisnotveryhigh,thenIdon’tthinkthattherewillbeabigcallforincreasingdomesticproduction.
Interview with Professor Marc Weidenmier“Hedging Against Peak Oil Shocks”
November 2009Page8
2009-2010 Research AssistantsAanchalKapoor‘11AaronChampagne‘10AdityaBindal‘11AislingScott‘12
AndrewOetting‘12AnnaEames’13
CandaceAdelberg‘10CarissaTudor‘09ChaseGray‘12DanLockett‘10ElizabethRose‘11EmilyBrister‘09GeorgePosner‘12GrantParker‘11JakeRichardson‘10JenniferGood‘13JenniferRingoen‘12
JesseHustonJosephSwartley‘11JoshuaRedel‘10JustinEskind‘11
KevinWallentine‘12KristinaBergess‘12LauraHagen‘11MarkGose‘11
MitchellSkotarczyk‘11NathanDoctor‘11
NoahMcCormack‘09PeterMeyer‘12
RosabellaMagat‘12RyanShaffer‘12SandyRussell‘10
SaulSandoval–Perea(CGU)SeanHannley‘10
SethMcCormick‘12SzeWaiYuen‘12TravisHull‘10
WillLiWilliamHeinke‘10XiaotongLi‘12
By Anna Eames ‘13
Interview with Professor Marc Weidenmier“Hedging Against Peak Oil Shocks”
OnOctober5th,2009,theMarianMinerCookAthenaeumwelcomedtherenownedwriterandecono-mistSilviaAnnHewletttospeakaboutthegrowingneedtoutilizewomenintheworkforcemoreefficiently.In2004,HewlettbecamethefoundingPresidentfortheCenterforWork-LifePolicy(CWLP)whereshechairsataskforceti-tledthe“HiddenBrainDrain.”Thistaskforceiscommittedtoanalyzingtheutilityandpotentialoffemaleworkersbyevaluatingcurrentworkplacepoliciesanddevelopingnewpolicieswith“enoughheftandtractiontodrivechange.” Sincethetaskforcewasfounded,over50globalcompaniesandorganizationsincludingtheCIA,WorldBank,andGooglehavejoined.Theseemployershavejoinedthetaskforcebecausetheyarelookingforwaystopreventtheirtalentedfemaleemployeesfrompermanentlyleaving.AccordingtoHewlett,95%ofwomenwhotakeacareerbreakendupworkingforadifferentcompanythantheonetheyleft.Byfindingbetterwaystoretaintalentedfemaleemployees,companiescanreducethecostsoftrain-ingnewworkersandpreventtheseemployeesfromjoiningcompetitors. Hewlettassertsthattheunderutilizationofwomencanbeexplainedthroughthevastdifferencesinthecareertrajectoriesofmenandwomen.Menusuallyhavelinearcareers;theystartworkaftertheireduca-tionanddon’tstopuntiltheyretire.Ontheotherhand,Hewlett’sresearchshowsthat37%ofwomenwilltakeacareerbreakforanaverageof2.3years.Thebiggestfactorpushingwomenoutoftheworkforceishavingkids,whichaccountsfor45%ofwomenwholeavetheworkforce.However,thereareanumberofothersignificantfactorsthatcausewomentoleavetheworkforce,suchascaringfortheirelders,feelingunderutilizedorappreciated,andbeingpassedforapromotion.Researchshowsthattheconsequencesofleavingtheworkforcearesignificant.Onaveragewomenwhore-enterthejobmarketaftertak-ingtimeoffpermanentlylose20%oftheirearningpower.Therearealsoproblemswithfindingajobinthefirstplace:outofthe93%ofwomenwhotrytore-entertheworkforce,only70%findjobs,andonly40%findjobswithseri-ousprospects.Hewlettassertsthattheproblemsassoci-atedwithre-enteringtheworkforcestemfromgenerallyheld,veryrigidconceptionsofwhatacareershouldbe.
Thefirsttraditionalcareerconceptionisthatthesteepestgradientofaworker’scareermustbewhentheyareinthere30’s.Asecondtraditionalconceptionisthatworkersneedtoprovide“full-timefacetime,”whichmeanswork-ingspecifichoursatspecificplaceswheretheirbossescansupervisetheirwork. TheCWLPhasfoundthatthebestsolutiontorevolutionizetraditionalcareerconceptionsandbetterutilizethetalentoffemaleworkersisflexiblehours.Sixyearsintotheir“flex”researchproject,theCWLPhasfoundthatmoreflexiblehoursleadtohighereconomicefficiencyandbetterbusinessperformance.Whileflexiblehourshavecertainlyshowntohelpwomenbalanceafamilylifewithoutsacrificingproductivityatwork,theyhavealsobeenshowntoincreasetheeconomicperformanceofmaleworkersaswell.Hewlettattributesthisincreaseinoverallproductivitytotheimprovedpsychologicaloutlookofaworkerwhohasachoiceaboutwhenandwheretheydotheirwork. Hewlettendedthetalkbyshowingjusthowfartheappealofflexiblehoursextendsbypresentingdataonthemotivationsofcollegegraduatesenteringthework-force.Shesurprisinglyfoundthatcollegegraduateshighlyvalueflexiblehours,evenoversalary.Thisdataillustratesthatyoungergenerationswanttochoosewhenandwheretheyworkbecauseitmakesthemfeelincontrolandgivesagreatersenseoffulfillmenttotheirlives. Essentially,Hewlett’sstudyshowsthatthenextgenerationofworkers,menandwomenalike,valueoppor-tunitiestoexpandtheirfulfillmentfromlifeingeneralmorethantheopportunitytobecomewealthy.Byrevampingtherigidcareermodelandofferingemployeesmotivationbeyondmoney,companiescanreducehumancapitalwaste,especiallythroughutilizingthetalentofwomenandappeal-ingtothehighestmotivationsofcollegegraduates.
Yes She Can: How to Better Utilize Female Workers
By Laura Hagen ‘11
Silvia Ann Hewlett
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Photo: Silvia Ann Hewlett at the Athenaeum
ResearchAssociateProfessorKeilfoundthatthereisanab-senceofasystematicanalysisforitslargeeconomy,presentingauniqueopportunityforCMCandtheLoweInstitute.CMC’sclosenesstotheregionandexpertiseineconomicsprovidesasolidfoundationforittoplayamajorroleintheforecasting,reporting,andanalysisfortheInlandEmpireeconomy. Therearethreeintegralpartsofthismassiveproject.IncollaborationwithCMC’sRoseInstitute,theLowewillsooncreatetheInlandEmpireEconomicsandPublicPolicyOutlook.Essentially,thisOutlookwillbeanonlinenewslet-terthatwillbedistributedtotheprivatesector,publicsector,andacademicsoftheregion.TheLowe’scontributiontotheOutlookwillincludeinterviewswithbusinessleaders,articlesonspecificindustriesandtopics,aswellasdetailedeconomicreportsonkeyindustriesandtheeconomyasawhole.
Initially,thisonlinenewsletterwillbeissuedtwiceayearwiththegoalofissuingitquarterlyinthenearfuture. Beginningnextyear,theLoweInstitutewillteamupwithUCLA’sAndersonBusinessSchooltohostasemi-annualforecastingconference.Atthisjointconference,UCLAwillpresentreleventinformationandforecastsoftheU.S.economyandtheCaliforniaeconomy,whiletheLowewillfocusontheInlandEmpireeconomy.TheLowewillpres-entinformationcompiledthroughtheforecastingmodelsandreportsforboththeregionaleconomyasawholeanditsmajorindustries.ProfessorWeidenmierexplainsthat“theoverallideabehindtheforecastingmodelsistotakeadvan-tageofthesedifferentialfeatures[housing,logistics]toexplaincomparativeeconomicperformanceoftheInlandEmpirevis-à-visCaliforniaandtheUnitedStates.”Businessowners,governmentofficials,andacademicswillbeinattendancetogainawealthofvaluableinformationonnational,state,andlo-caleconomicdevelopment.Therewillalsobeaspecifictopicofinterestthatrelatestotheresultsoftheforecastsforeachconference.Forexample,iftheforecastingmodelsshowthatthehousingmarketwillturnaroundinthenextsixmonths,theconferencewouldhostapanelofacademicspecialistsandbusinessownersofthehousingsectortodiscusstheseresults. AnewfunctionoftheLowethatwillbedevelopedthroughthisprojectisRecessionDating.Apanelofaca-demicsandbusinessleaderswillformacommittee,withthepurposeofspecifyingwhenrecessionsbeginandendinCaliforniaandtheInlandEmpire.AlthoughthisisdoneatthenationallevelbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER),businesscyclesmaydiffersubstantiallybystateandregion.Therefore,recessiondatingwithastateandregionalfocuswillbemoreconsistentlyaccurate.Economiceventsandnewswilllargelydeterminewhenthesepredictionsaremadebythecommittee;however,theultimategoalistobeabletousetheinformationcompiledfromtheforecast-ingmodelstoeffectivelypredictthesedates.ProfessorKeilpointstothesignificantrolethatareliabledatingcommitteecouldplayinaneconomy,emphasizingthatitwouldpositivelyimpactbusinessdecisions.IftheLowe’sforecastinganddatinginformationprovestobeaccurate,thiswilleventuallystimu-latepopularinterestandleadtovisibilityinthenewsmedia. Oneofthemostimportantbenefitsresultingfromtheprojectisthatitwillprovidestudentswithagreatnum-berofuniqueopportunities.“Thereisanadditionalservicethatwewillprovide,whichistotrainstudentsinresearchmethods,”saysProfessorKeil.Studentshavealreadycontrib-utedasubstantialamounttothedevelopmentofallthreepri-marycomponentsoftheproject.FutureresponsibilitieswillincludewritingarticlesfortheOutlook,interviewingbusinessleaders,aswellascreatingpreliminaryeconomicreportsand
Creating an Empire — Continued from Page 1
AsasophomoreatPomonalastFebruary,AanchalKapoor‘11beganworkingasaresearchas-sistantforProfessorMarcWeidenmierattheLoweInstitute.SheworkedwithProfessorWeidenmierduringtheschoolyearandthenthroughoutthesummerasafull-timeresearchassistantonaprojectentitled“Hedg-ingAgainstPeakOilShocks.”Attheendofthesummer,KapoortransferredtoCMCandiscontinuingherworkattheLoweInstitute. Kapoor’sworkattheLowelastsummeralsoincluded“creatingadatabaseonstocksfromthe1930stoanalyzetheimpactoftheSEC(SecuritiesExchangeCommission)”forProfessorCronqvist.Thisfall,KapoorisworkingwithProfessorBurdekinonaprojectthatfocusesonthenearlyglobalshifttothegoldstandardinthe1930s.SheisalsoonateamofresearchassistantsthatisworkingontheInlandEmpireproject. AfterworkingontheseprojectsattheLoweforthepastseveralmonths,theforemostskillKapoorhasgainedisdataanalysis.Althoughshehadsomepastex-periencewithExcel,herworkattheLoweopenedhereyesto“whatStataandExcelcanreallydo.” Kapoor’sexperienceattheLowehasconvincedherthatworkingasaresearchassistantmakesallthedifferenceinpairingliberalartswith“acareer-oriented,pre-professionalapproach.”HerworkwithProfessorWeidenmiergaveher“anideaof…whattheywouldexpectwhenyougraduate,inafulltimejob.”
Aanchal Kapoor ‘11
Benefits of Economic ResearchBy Anna Eames ‘13
November 2009Page10
newestwork,hiscritics,andhislifeasanunconventionalecono-mist.Hisspeech,co-sponsoredbytheLoweInstituteaspartofthe2009-2010Lowe-AthenaeumSpeakerSeries,wasbyfarthemostentertainingAthenaeumeventIhaveattendedduringmytimeatCMC. DeanGregoryHess,inhisintroductiontoDr.Levitt’sspeech,remarkedthat“whatmakesLevitt’svisitsuchagoodfithereisthatitseemslikesuchaholiday,suchacelebration.”ItsurefeltlikeacelebrationonceDr.Levittgotbehindthepodium.Hehadthecrowdroaringfromtheverybeginning. Dr.Levittbeganbyproposingascenario.YouandacoupleofyourbuddiesareintheClaremontVillageforanightout,youhaveallhadafewdrinkstoomany,andoneofyourfriendsasksyoutogivehimthekeystothecar.HewantstodrivebacktoCMC.Likeanyresponsiblefriendwoulddo,youdeclinehisrequestandtellhimtowalkhome.Thatiswhereyoumesseverythingup. Bytellingyourfriendtowalkthehalf-milebacktocam-pus,youhaveactuallymadehisjourneyhomemoredangerousthanitwouldhavebeenhadyougivenhimthekeysandlethimdriveback.AccordingtoDr.Levitt,“mileformile,itturnsouttobeeighttimesmoredangeroustowalkdrunkthantodrivedrunk.” ItispreciselytheseconclusionsthatmakeDr.Levittsoentertaining.Feweconomistshavetheability,nottomen-tionthecourage,tousedataandeconomicanalysistoestablishconclusionsonveryoddtopics.InSuperFreakonomics,Dr.Levitt,alongwithco-authorStephenDubner,asksquestionslike“whydoprostitutesmakelessmoneynowthantheydidacenturyago?”(Thesexualrevolution.)“Caneatingakangaroosavetheplanet?”(Yes.)“Whatdohurricanes,heartattacks,andhighwaydeathshaveincommon?”(Readthebook.)Dr.Levitt’scommentshadtheaudiencehowling,buttheyalsobroughtupamuchmoreseriouspoint.Ifabsurdeconomicscanbeusedtoanswersuchmundanequestions,mightitalsobeabletoanswermoreimportantones,whilestillmaintainingitshilariousnature?Dr.Levittsuggeststhatitcan. ThemostinterestingandcontroversialchapterofLev-
itt’sbookdiscussesthepossibilitiesforsolvingourglobalwarm-ingcrisis.Duringhisspeech,heproposedthatitispossibletooffsetourcarbondioxideemissionsbysimplyusingtwo“hoses,”placednearthepoles,tocontinuouslydumpcarbondioxideoutofouratmosphereandintoouterspace.Hecontendsthatthehoseswouldonlyhavetobeaslargeasstandardgardenhosestobeeffective. Duringthequestionandanswerperiod,afewstudentsexpresseddoubtsaboutDr.Levitt’sconclusionsregardingglobalwarming.Levitt,however,didafinejobofaddressingtheircon-cerns,pointingtodatacollectedbyhim,othereconomists,andinfluentialscientiststhatsupporthisprocessandconclusions.Healsonoted,toawaveoflaughterfromtheaudience,thatoneofhisdetractors,theUnionofConcernedScientists,isactuallynotagroupofscientists. DespitethescrutinyontheglobalwarmingchapterofSuperFreakonomics,theeveningwasquitelight-heartedandenter-taining.Dr.Levittsharedanumberofpersonalstorieswiththeaudience:• Hishighschoolcalculusteacherrememberedhimathistwentyyearreunion.Unfortunately,itwasbecauseDr.Levitthadthedubiousdistinctionofbeingtheonlystudenttogeta2ontheAPCalculusexamintheteacher’sentirecareer.• Inapaperhewrotein2001,hecalculatedtheexternal-itycostofdrunkdriving.About30centspermile.• Heoncepaidaprostitute$400anhourtoteachalec-tureforhimattheUniversityofChicago.Additionally,hetaughtherbetterprofitmaximizationmethodsinreturnfordataonallofthetricksshehadeverperformed. Dr.Levitt’sspeechwasinsightful,intriguing,andabsolute-lyhilarious.Blendingeconomicsandcomedyseamlesslyintoone,Dr.Levittisjusttherockstarfigurethatthestudyofeconomicsneedstogiveittheattentionitrightfullydeserves.Economicsisoftenportrayedasadull,boringsubject.Itisdifficulttogetmostpeopletocareaboutshort-runaveragecostcurves,deadweightloss,andprice-to-earningsratios.However,Dr.Levitt’sfirstbookhassoldoverfourmillioncopiesto-date,andbyusingcomedy,heisdoinghisbesttogivethefieldtheimagemakeoveritneeds,onetrickatatime.
memos.Studentsandfacultymemberswillruntheforecastingmodelstogetherandindepen-dently,providingstudentswiththeopportunitytoapplywhattheylearnintheircoursestotherealworld.InthewordsofProfessorWeiden-mier,“studentsplayanintegralpartinallaspectsofthisproject”andhavetheopportunityto“usethelatesttechniquesineconometricsandstatisticstoanalyzeeconomicactivityintheInlandEmpire.”
ThiscomprehensiveprojectpresentsasignificantopportunityfortheLoweInstitutetoestablishitselfasthedominantcenterforeconomicinformationontheInlandEmpire.BycontinuingtocombinethemotivationofCMC’shighcaliberstudentswiththeskillsofitsdis-tinguishedfaculty,theLoweInstituteofPoliticalEconomyforecaststhatitwillachieveitsambi-tiousgoalanddevelopthisprestigiousreputa-tioninthenearfuture.
Steve Levitt — Continued from Page 1
“students play an integral part in all aspects of
this project”
The Lowe Down Page11
Lowe Institute to Host Applied Microeconomics Conference By Chase Gray ‘12 ThiscomingApril,theLoweInstitutewillco-hostthefirstannualSouthernCaliforniaConferenceinAppliedEconomics.EstablishedinconjunctionwiththeBergerInstituteforWork,FamilyandChildren,theconferencewillbeheldattheClaremontCol-legesonFriday,April16,2010.TheconferencewillincludeavarietyofpaperpresentersfromcollegesanduniversitiesthroughoutSouthernCalifornia.TheorganizingcommitteeincludesrepresentativesfromCMC,UCLA,UC-Irvine,UC-SanDiego,UC-SantaBarbara,andUSC. Presenterswilldiscussawidevarietyoftopics,includingexperimentaleconom-ics,laboreconomics,healtheconomics,populationeconomics,lawandeconomics,urbaneconomics,andpubliceconomics.ThefirstofitskindinSouthernCalifornia,theeventissuretobeentertainingandinsightfulforallwhoattend. Interested in submitting a paper?TheboardmembersoftheSouthernCaliforniaConferenceinAppliedMicroeconomicswillselectthepaperstobepresentedattheconference.ThedeadlineforpapersubmissionstotheconferenceisJanuary31,2010.PleasesendallpapersubmissionstoProfessorMarcWeidenmieratmweidenmier@cmc.edu.WeinvitepapersubmissionsfromallcollegesanduniversitiesinSouthernCalifornia.Facultyandgraduatestudentsareencouragedtosubmitpaperstotheconference.Paperpresenterswillbepaidanhonorariumof$300tocovertravelexpenses.TheBergerandLoweIn-stituteswillprovideacontinentalbreakfast,lunch,anddinner.
Organizing Committee:LeahPlattBoustan(UCLA)JanBrueckner(UC-Irvine)
GordonDahl(UC–SanDiego)EricHelland(CMC)
PeterKuhn(UC-SantaBarbara)DariusLakdawalla(USC)
Board of GovernorsJamesH.Cheney‘65
RobertM.Cheney‘94FounderandWealthAdvisorWestridgeWealthStrategies
JohnCosgrovePresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficerCosgrove/MeurerProductions,Inc.
JosephH.DavisPrincipalandChiefEconomist
FixedIncome&EconomicStrategyGroupsTheVanguardGroup
DavidI.FisherChairmanandDirectorTheCapitalGroup,Inc.
PamelaB.GannPresident
ClaremontMcKennaCollege
BillieC.GreerDirector,LosAngelesOffice
OfficeofGovernorArnoldSchwarzenegger
LisaHansenChairmanoftheBoard
TheKennethT.&EileenL.NorrisFoundation
BethLoweCommunityVolunteer
RobertJ.Lowe‘62(Chair)ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficer
LoweEnterprises,Inc.
SueLowe
ThomasL.Lowe,Jr.‘56
JosephD.Matt‘99VicePresident
CapitalResearchGlobalInvestors
RobertK.MontgomerySeniorPartner
Gibson,Dunn&Crutcher
KennethM.Novack‘67Chairman
SchnitzerSteelIndustries
WalterB.RoseVentureConsulting
JohnC.SicilianoSeniorManagingDirectorandCEOof
InvestmentBoutiquesNewYorkLifeInvestments
Dr.BryanWilsonTaylorIIPresidentandChiefEconomist
GlobalFinancialData
RobertM.WeekleySeniorVicePresidentLoweEnterprises,Inc.
MarcD.WeidenmierDirector
LoweInstituteofPoliticalEconomyClaremontMcKennaCollege
Thank youto our Fall 2009Newsletter Staff:
EditorDanLockett‘10
Staff WritersLauraHagen‘11MarkGose’11ChaseGray‘12PeterMeyer‘12JenniferGood‘13
Staff Writer / LayoutAnnaEames‘13
PhotographerElizabethRose‘11
From left: Laura Hagen, Mark Gose, Chase Gray, Anna Eames, Peter Meyer, Dan Lockett, Jenn Good
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