The Looming World Food Crisis: Opportunities in the Food Ecosystem of

the Developing World

Fred T. Davies, PhD

Regents Professor emeritus & Senior Borlaug Fellow of Horticultural Sciences, Texas A&M University

Senior Science Advisor (Jefferson Science Fellow) USAID, Bureau of Food Security / ARP

Back-packed around the world for a year.

U.S., Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America [Amazon River], Africa, India, Nepal, Southeast Asia, Japan.

Visited banana plantations, temperate and tropical fruit and vegetable production & research centers, tea plantations, ornamental production

International Opportunities in Horticulture for Niche Crops.

Mycorrhizal Fungi as Biofertilizers in Subsistence Potato Farming Systems in the Peruvian Altiplano

J.S. Guggenheim Fellowship Fulbright Senior Fellowship USDA grant

6th International Human Health Effects of Fruits & Vegetables Symposium (FAVHealth2014)

Functional food research within fruit, vegetables and nuts.

Foods that provide health benefits beyond basic nutrition,protection against disease, and increase in performance.

Supply vitamins, minerals (micronutrients), healthy carbohydrates (USAID goals – reduce stunting and increase human nutrition). Nutritional Security

ChronicDisease

PreventionHealth Care Practitioners

Biologists, Chemists

Plant Breeders;Plant Pathology

Farmers

Consumer

Grocer

CSU‐Cancer Prevention Lab ‐ Emphasis: Consilience

Behavior Change(H. Thompson, CSU)

Signifcant Challenges Affecting World Agriculture

Globalization Marketing Labor Environmental Issues – climate change Urban Encroachment EnergyWater-Usage Consolidation

Viability and profit margins of Agricultural industries

How to Feed 9 Billion People? By the middle of the 21st century, the world population

will increase from +7 billion to more than 9 billion.

Resource limitations will constrain the global food system.

For the first time in human history, food production will be limited on a global scale by the availability of land, water, and energy.

Food issues could become as politically destabilizing after 2050 as energy issues are today – stressorduring Arab spring of 2011.

Hunger Rising with Global Temperatures, (2018 UN Report)

821 million people (1 in 9) now hungry and over 150 million children stunted, putting UNSDG hunger eradication goal at risk

There is increasing hunger & food security problems in the world…..

Poverty is the principal cause of hunger. 1/7 US assistance

75% of the world’s chronically poor are in mid-income countries, i.e. China, India, Brazil, Philippines.

Agricultural productivity, food security, food safety, environment, water, energy, health, nutrition, obesity are ALL interconnected.

Saudi Arabia – 83% UrbanU.S. / Britain – 83% UrbanTexas – 85% UrbanLatin America – 80% Urban

Where will that increased production of food come from?

By the middle of the 21st century, the world population will increase 30% to more than 9 billion. It is estimated that food production will need to increase 70% to meet increased demands. The numbers do not add-up how we are going to realistically meet the increased demand for food.

Saudi Arabia – Food/ Agricultural Challenges 

1.5% arable land ; +70% dependent on imports to meet food requirements.Desertification; major depletion of underground aquifers.

Largest country without a river; the lack of perennial rivers or permanent water bodies. 

Extensive seawater desalination facilities.

The United States, Saudi Arabia, China, world - using up groundwater at an alarming rate.

Like Saudi Arabia, California’s agriculture (Central Valley – 10% US Ag) relies heavily on water pumped from the ground – accounting for about 65 percent of its water use during these drought years.

Even during normal years, arid regions in the Central Valley receive about the same rainfall as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – 102 -127 mm (4-5 in.)

Saudi Arabia: Major Buyer of Agricultural land in foreign countries (U.S., Argentina, Indonesia, Thailand, Africa, Australia, etc. ) – Future Food & Nutritional Security?

Arizona desert to grow alfalfa – Almarai (Saudi Dairy) – 39 km2/15 mi2

Nathan Halverson / April 22, 2015 https://www.revealnews.org/

California – production of almonds (10% water) and avocados – sustainable??

Alfalfa – 3-4X water than wheat: exporting water via corn, soy, nuts, meat. (Virtual Water)

Economic Cost ofGlobal Malnutrition

Nutritional &Food Security =

InternationalSecurity

Change is a foot:

Perfect Storm for Agriculture is also an Opportunity

Consumers’ view of quality, nutrition, production, origin, safety – and sustainability of foods we consume

Peri-Urban and Urban agriculture favors horticulture.

Food Miles, Community Supported Agriculture (CSA), Slow Food, Agriburbia, Permaculture are issues and opportunities impacting Horticulture.

http://www.feedthefuture.gov/

Feed the Future (FTF), the U.S. global hunger and food security initiative.

USAID, Bureau For Food Security - Leading the U.S. Government's Feed the Future initiative

Private-Public Partnerships, NGOs, Foundations

H.R.1567 - Global Food Security Act of 2016

Technology‐Led Solutions Can Advance the Food Ecosystem for the Developing World

1.Connectivity: Info Delivery & Digital Technology Platforms: ICT, IOT, mobile money, finance

2. Uberized Services: Producers to Consumers

3. Precision Agriculture: GPS, IOT, AI, Sensing Tech.  

4. CEA – Controlled Environment Agriculture:Protected Culture, Vertical Farming

6. 3‐D Printing/ addativemanufacturing: Food to Structures

5. Blockchain:Traceabillity, Identification, Safety

7. Solar & Wind Electric:Energy,  Micro‐Grids & Storage

9. Enhanced Genetics: Gene Editing, Synthetic Biology 

10.Biotechnology:Microbiome, Alternative Proteins, etc.

11. Nanotech‐nology: & Advanced Materials 

8. High Quality, Enhanced Seed: Hybrids, Climate & Pest Resilience

12. Low Technology Intervention: integration  with new tech – plus  “on‐” and “off‐grid” usage 

Holistic Approach– using technology to connect the nexus of food, water, energy, nutrition, medicine, health (people/nutrigenetics, plant, animal), sanitation,  education, behavior change – with sustainable intensification of the food ecosystem – from urban, peri‐urban and rural environs.

Communication Technology Opportunities

Ubiquitous Cell phone.

Some 70% of the world’s seven billion people own or have inexpensive access to mobile phones.

A billion people actively use Facebook; Indonesia, developing country, is the 4th highest

user.

Low-cost videos – Digital Green.

Shamba Shape Up farm makeover reality TV Show.

Hello Tractor http://www.hellotractor.com/

“Uber” for Tractors A tractor that can plow fields & talk to

the cloud Each Smart Tractor is embedded

with our monitoring hardware -equipped with a GPS antenna and international SIM card for remote Smart Tractor monitoring

Hardware as a standalone product to non- Smart Tractor owners, making their machines “Smart” as well!

B-to-B – Business-to-Business opportunities for entrepreneurs

CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility

Apps to spot crop disease, alert African farmers.

Cassava brown streak disease & cassava mosaic disease.

Accurately diagnoses diseases in the field ‐combine mobile phone short message service (SMS) alert farmers.  

How ‘Ugly’ Fruits and Vegetables Can Help Solve World Hunger A third of the planet’s food goes to waste, often because of its looks.  That’s enough to feed two billion people.

Disruptive Technologies  New Paradigms –Vertical Farming Bringing Farm to the City Local food production @ scale

Using finely calibrated LEDs AeroFarms grows vegetables 

without sunshine

Genetically modified food (GMOs) can lead to greener, more sustainable farming practices.

Bangladesh commercially using BT-eggplant; eliminates pesticides.

3D Food Printing (Additive Manufacturing)Healthy and good for the environment ‐ help convert 

alternative ingredients such as proteins from algae, beet leaves, or insects into tasty products. 

Opens the door to food customization and therefore tune up with individual  dietary  needs and preferences.

BlockchainElectronic public ledger – Identification, Traceability, Food 

Safety with RFID’s

MONI card Finland’s digital money system for asylum seekers

Blockchain‐Powered Mobile Payment System

Open‐source software for financial services companies, government regulators – build digital payment platforms

The Central Directory Service routes each payment to the correct service/provider in the ecosystem.

Nanotechnology  & Advanced Materials 

Edipeel ‐We add a little more peel.

(But it's invisible and edible.)

Plant derived coating materials.

Protects and extends shelf‐ life and transportability.

Reduces waste; enables fruits and vegetables with better flavor, nutrition, and freshness.

http://apeelsciences.com/

Food‐Miles and the Relative Climate Impacts of Food Choices in the United StatesC. L. Weber*, H. S. Matthews;  Carnegie Mellon University, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008, 42 (10), pp 3508–3513

What We Eat (Red Meat) has a Bigger Impact on the Environment Than the Car We Drive!

Tons CO2 Equivalent per Year

8.1    ‐ All foods 4.4    ‐ Auto driven (19,300 km/ 12,000 miles) 0.4  ‐ Food Transportation (1000 km/ 600 mi) – all foods

MORE PEAS ‐ RETHINKING MEAT AND THE FUTURE OF PROTEIN

For thousands of years, we’ve relied on animals to turn plants into meat. Steaks, burgers, and chicken are staples of the American /World diet. The sustainable food movement ‐ plant‐based, mass‐market solutions to 

replace animal protein. Are these new protein sources poised to transform the global food system? 

http://ripplefoods.com/

Ripple  Foods   ‐milk made from peas ; get flavorless protein out of any plant source; plant based, good tasting foods; high protein, low sugar; dairy free; 

TODAY WE RELY ON COWS TO TURN PLANTS INTO MEAT. THERE HAS TO BE A BETTER WAY. The Impossible Burger Pat O. Brown, Founder and CEO www.impossiblefoods.com/

What makes meat unique: the sizzle, the smell, the juicy first bite. Right ingredients from plants recreate experience meat lovers crave. Coconut oil to simulate beef fat, which is solid until heated. Potato 

proteins, which helps it achieve a beautiful crust when seared. Heme‐ a compound that gives color to red meat.

Select  proteins and nutrients from plants to recreate the experience of meats and dairy products from animals

Uses 95% less land and 74% less water, emits 87% less greenhouse gases than a burger from cows.

The plant‐based burger has more protein, less total fat and fewer calories than a similar‐sized hamburger patty from cows; no cholesterol, antibiotics or syn. hormones

Eco‐Schools USA (https://www.nwf.org/Eco‐Schools

The Year of Food - Sustainable Food Curriculum

Schools play a major role in the education of tomorrow's citizens and decision-makers.

Giving students an opportunity to learn about the issues that affect food and to take an active role in their own nutrition -health and sustainability when making choices about the food they eat.

Food education, school gardens and lunch trays filled with healthy, local ingredients.

Career opportunities in Food Systems. STEM + F

Not just producing higher yield, quality “Hort crops” – but down–stream development of packaged, processed, refined products, easy to consume – “value-added”

Food Revolution - Targeting the consumptive, middle class to create market “pull through”, i.e. OFSP - chips, fries, flours, bread, purees, blending with other products.

Focus from subsistence to commercial small-holder farmers.

Need to be bottom-up, value-chain driven (market-driven for economic sustainability).

Career Opportunities for a Young Person

“Sputnik challenge” of feeding the world -- doing it with less land, less inputs of water, fertilizer, chemicals – Sustainable Intensification.

Career Opportunities to help solve a “Wicked Problem”.

“Education  is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” ― Nelson Mandela

(and access to information)

Nexus: Food, Energy, Water, Sanitation, Health-Nutrition, Behavior Change, Smart-Policy

Thinking outside the box – we can grow plants without soil, need to think producing vertically (growingupwards) with less arable land; CEA; utilizing the plant microbiome……