“the international catastrophic risks forum" bucharest, october 1st 2007
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Risk mapping and zoning approaches in European insurance markets. Roland NUSSBAUM Managing Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR) Chairman of Natural Hazards Working Group Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA). “The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Roland NUSSBAUMManaging Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR)
Chairman of Natural Hazards Working GroupComité Européen des Assurances (CEA)
“The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007
Risk mapping and zoning approaches in European insurance markets
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Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe OUTLINE
• Typology of CAT extended coverages in European insurance markets
• Introducing CEA relevant activities
• User needs, data and scope of developments
• Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools
• Conclusions• Annexes
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Typology of NATCAT extended coveragesin European insurance markets
Compulsory
Optionnal
Insurers are not risk carryer
**
*
New / modified extended coverages:
Recently put in place
In project………+
+
+Color intensity
according to market penetration of
extended cover:
FLOODS and/or
SEISMIC RISK
*
**+
*
*
**
*
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COMITE EUROPEEN DES ASSURANCES
o Federation of European insurance associations www.cea.assur.org
o Property Committeeo Natural Hazards Working Group (NH WG)
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Cooperations & experience sharing between CEA markets
• Mutual information on market situation and developments
• Hazard mapping and zoning• Insurers and flood risk
prevention• Catastrophic claims management• Climate change : report July 2007
* Downloadable on CEA’s website: www.cea.assur.org
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1. Users’ needs, data, services and scope of developments
French experience
Conducted by MRN
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Categories of needs within insurance
Evolution in France
Solvency II
CATNAT Regime
• Safety managmeent plan• Susbtainablity reportng duties for companies
Régime CATNAT
Offre outils modélisation
Solvency II
CATNAT
Evolution of ins. regime
Trends
Accumulation modelling
Site by site
scoring
Site by site scoring
modelling
Type of service
Portfolio exposure eval° and monitoring
Asset allocation
Prevention incentive
Risk exposure eval°
Prevention and crisis preparedness within insurance company
Risk accumulations
Reinsurance underwrinting
Rapid evaluation of total claim
Crisis management
Claims consistency control
Purpose
Statistics Acturarial sc.
Risk management
Real estate assets porforlio managment
Reinsurance cessions
Claims management
Underwriting
risk survey
Job
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Data, services and scope of use
Prevention policy
categories of dataScoring
Site by site
Exposure Assessment
Modelling Service /
General interest
Public policy
Competition
Private market players
Vulnerability
Loss records
Territories
Insurance portfolios
Private assets
Referentials
Underwriting
?
Hazards
scope
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2. Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools
General comments
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Flood and seismic hazard exposure
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Floods, storms and earthquakesAnnual probability of exceedance = f(losses)
Sources: DFNK, GFZ
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2.1. Flood zoning tools used by european insurance markets
A CEA Contribution to EXCIMAP Atlas and guide of good practices
to be published by EU Commission DG ENVSee Annex to CEA report
“Reducing the Social and Economic Impact ofClimate Change and Natural Catastrophes
Insurance Solutions and Public-Private Partnerships”July 2007
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Typology & evolution of flood hazard zoning tools on European insurance markets
(USA)
UK
FR : MRN 2004-7
Service Intranet
Market players with data modeling tools from
agencies market / project
Proprietary developments at market initiative
PPPs Hazard data
UK : Informal agreement
ABI(+CML) - EA
AU : PPP
VVO – LM
Public site
NFIP / FIRM
?
?
?
BE
2006
DE : ZURS 1 & 2
CZ : FRAT
AU : HORA
2007
IT : SIGRA
T
?
2004-6
Directives :
FLOODS
INSPIRE
PL : project
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2.2. Seismic risk in European insurance markets
First results of enquiries
and best practices exchanges
between CEA Member Associations
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Seismic riskAvailability of hazard maps
?
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seismic hazard information availability
Source : B. Ranguelov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences , at SENS’2006, June 2006
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SEISMIC ZONES FROM 2004 (3 ZONES)
G R E E C E
II
BREAKDOWN OF EXISTING PROPERTIES WITHIN THE COUNTRYBREAKDOWN OF EXISTING PROPERTIES WITHIN THE COUNTRY
I
II
III
71,2%
27,0%
1,8%
Exposed properties per seismic zone
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Seismic riskAvailability of PML scenarios
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3. Conclusions
• Huge technical developments by insurance markets, based on GIS technologies and modelling, to improve cat insurability
• Positive effect of best practices exchange between insurance markets: role of CEA – invitation to join CEA Natural Hazard Working Group activities
• EU policies: INFSO / INSPIRE, R&D / FP7, REGIO, ENV / Climate change adaptation strategy, flood action programme / Flood directive…) favour the trends towards PPPs for:o data production, sharing and dissemination,o joining efforts in exposure assessments
Deterministic Probabilistic
o promoting insurance services as economic incentives for risk prevention
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Annexes to the presentation
Additionnal maps and illustrative examples
Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe
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Plans de prévention des risques (PPR)
Developing a professional tool for scoring indicators about their adequacy and efficiency
Sources : DDE 65 et 94
Situation /(hazard, municipality)
Test on
Absence ofPPR assets
PPR approvedassets + adequacy
PPR matureassets +
adequacy + efficiency
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Intranet geoservices infrastructure offered by MRN to French insurance companies
Through a unique access point, insurance companies have two categories of services :- online consultation of a site exposure and report edition
- downloading of numeric data sets on natural hazard zonations
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This example shows a consultation of the information available for flood and subsidence hazards at the following adress:
1 rue Bannier 45 000 Orléans
The MRN geoservices intranet platform
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Multi-sites « scoring » for an insurance portfolio
the various addresses have been geocoded, these insured
sites are then « qualified » with respect to hazard, according to
i available data and considering their credibility
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Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera
synthetic eventsynthetic event
Magnitude 6.1 Magnitude 6.1
Epicenter:Epicenter:
in the sea, in the sea,
near Menton citynear Menton city
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Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera
VULNERABILITY CLASSES OF EXPOSED MUNICIPALITIES IN PACA REGION
Asset ModuleAsset Module
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Damage estimate ModuleDamage estimate Module
Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera
Economic loss estimate = % damage X nb dwellings X surfaces X replacing cost/ m2
Estimate of the amount of damage to dwellings par municipality
About
47 000 dwellings
9 G€ of insured dammage
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Best practice exchange on flood zoning data by insurance markets
AU
http://geoinfo.lfrz.at/website/egisroot/services/ehora2/viewer.htm
FR
Public zoning tools used by insurance markets
GK1
GK4
GK3GK2
B
DEInsurance market proprietary zoning tools CZ
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UK situation: EA agreement with ABI
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ITALY : SIGRA projectintegrating site by site and portfolio tools
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High
Low
Qualitative assessment of risk awareness level
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EQ extended coverage: compulsory or not?
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Market penetration of EQ coverage
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Form of EQ insurance market organisation
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EQ prevention requirements