Increasing awareness of global catastrophic risks, while searching for the governance that can decrease them.

The risk of climate changeA comparative perspective

Dennis Pamlin, Senior Advisor

2015-04-13

Responding proportionately to the risk Focus, Responsibility, Capacity to turn it into opportunities

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Most probable – 1/200 Economic

Unacceptable

Risk of ruin

33%

?

The Global Challenges Foundation12 different risks that threaten human civilisation

2

LA-602: Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs

The Global Challenges FoundationVery different levels of uncertainty – different focus to address them

2

Action

Research

Already in the risk zone

The Global Challenges FoundationSurprisingly high probability for existential risk

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Responding proportionately to the risk Significant uncertainty – but potentially catastrophically consequences

2

2-4°C

4-7°C0.1°C 7+°C

Type 1 errorsType 2 errors

Emissions (human)Climate sensitivityClimate effectsClimate resilience

Responding proportionately to the risk The probabilities of global risks are not isolated from each other

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The Global Challenges FoundationHow do we communicate about the probability different risks?

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20%IPCC = UnlikelyTraditional risk approach = Very high

1%IPCC = Exceptionally unlikelyTraditional risk approach = Average

<0.002%Traditional risk approach = Very Low

The Global Challenges FoundationFour ideas to consider from a comparative global risks perspective

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1. ResearchEncourage all research related to climate change to present the whole probability distribution and include a discussion about the tail-risk. => Do not stop research regarding impacts at 4°C and discuss earth system feedback.

2. Business/finance (and policy making)Develop strategies that allow the goal of global zero carbon society by 2050 become a main driver of innovation supported by accelerated uptake of strategies that include the financial risk of investments in high-carbon capital.

3. Policy makingEstablish a G20 global risk group with focus on low-probability/high impact aspects. 2, 4, 7+ °C

For climate: Explore the consequences of two goals for and climate change.

i. 2 degree goal (dangerous risk) with 80% or 99% probability => Main focus on the direct effect of anthropic emissions

ii. A 6 degree goal (deadly risk) with 99.98% or 99.9998% probability => Focus on earth system feedback and surprises

4. AllEstablish revised probability language to describe the probability of different degrees of warming and associated consequences.

The Global Challenges FoundationThank you, look forward to further discussions

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The Global Challenges FoundationSelection: Peer reviewed literature from established sources

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