AIR POWER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE BULLETIN

THE INTER-CONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE (ICBM) – MYTHS & MIGHT

On 30 November 2017, North Korea conducted a test of its new ‘Hwasong-15’ intercontinental ballistic missile from a mobile transporter erector launcher. North Korea reported that the missile reached an altitude of 4475 km, the highest altitude ever observed for a North Korean missile, over a ground range of 950 km. In analysing the significance of the launch, some observers have used a rule-of-thumb referred to as the ‘1/2 rule’ to calculate the maximum achievable ground range of North Korea’s missiles. These calculations have raised concerns that North Korea has finally developed an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) can reach continental USA and anywhere in Australia. The simple use of ‘ICBM’ in reporting can generate a heightened level of alarm in the public, primarily because the term conjures up images of world-spanning nuclear reach. But there is more nuance to ballistic missile threat than that portrayed by such a simplistic characterisation.

The term ‘ballistic missile’ refers to a class of large-calibre, self-propelled, partially guided or unguided projectiles that follow a ballistic trajectory for most of their flight path, under the influence of gravity. Typically, these missiles carry large warheads or other payloads and have a range of hundreds of kilometres to in excess of 10 000 km. Medium & long-range ballistic missiles are generally regarded as strategic weapons due to their reach and the destructive potential of their warheads. Ballistic missiles are generally categorised by the characteristics that describe the system design or range performance:• Ground range. Designations based on commonly used

distances as listed in the table above, in the absence of a universally accepted standard (eg South Korea’s ‘Hyunmoo-3C Medium-Range Ballistic Missile [MRBM]’).

• Payload. Payload subsystem designations include conventional, nuclear, chemical or biological warhead, and Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) in a single payload (eg China’s ‘DF-5B MIRV’);

• Propulsion. Propulsion subsystem designations based on solid or liquid propellant rocket motors and the single or multiple stage rocket motor design (eg North Korea’s ‘Hwasong-15 2-stage, liquid-fueled ICBM’);

• Launch segment. Launch system-based designations such as land-based, ship, aircraft, submarine, or mobile transporter erector launcher (eg North Korea’s ‘KN-11 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile [SLBM]’); and

• Target-based designations (eg China’s ‘DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile’ or ‘carrier killer’);

As different laws of physics apply to describe the motions and trajectories for long-range cruise and ballistic missiles, there are different systems requirements for mission planning, propulsion, guidance, control, and payloads. Cruise missiles typically use propulsion and lift-generating wings, with manoeuvrable control surfaces, and use aerodynamic

forces to fly a preplanned trajectory, including mid-course changes. The ballistic projectile or payload is typically propelled into motion by a single and limited duration energy transfer event, such as an exploding artillery round or ignited rocket motor. Once the energy transfer event

is complete, the projectile will have reached its maximum velocity and its momentum carries it to follow a ballistic trajectory that is mainly shaped by the effects of gravity and, to a lesser degrees, by other influences such as air friction.

Strategic missiles follow a trajectory that is described as sub-orbital. Orbital trajectories are normally associated with Earth-orbiting satellites that are actually in freefall under the effects of gravity and keep missing the Earth in their circular motion. Ballistic missile trajectories are commonly described as following a parabolic arc, however, this parabolic arc is an approximation for a trajectory that is more accurately described as following a circular motion trajectory about the gravitational centre of the Earth; the physical size of the Earth prevents the ballistic object from completing an orbit before striking the ground, thus defining a sub-orbital trajectory.

Issue 302, January 2018ISSN: 2205-0078 (Print) 2205-0086 (Online)

Range Description

Range Example

Short less than 1000 WWII German V-2 Medium 1000 to 3000 km Israeli Jericho II Intermediate 3000 to 5500 km British UGM-27 Polaris Inter-Continental more than 5500 km North Korean Hwasong-15

Ground range characteristics of ICBMs

The ranges of ballistic missiles are controlled by a transfer of energy and the launch elevation angle, while the direction is controlled by the launch azimuth angle. The missile range is varied by changing the rocket fuel load, similar to artillery crews stacking a different number of explosive charge bags in the gun barrel appropriate to the different attack ranges. Unlike cruise missiles, ballistic missiles do not rely on aerodynamic forces and once the rocket-booster expires, it uses its momentum under the influence of gravity, on a ballistic trajectory, to fall to its target.

The North Korean ICBM missile tests have been reported as achieving ever higher apogee heights with each test launch of a new missile design. The test missiles appear to have been fired at very steep launch angles to achieve a maximum trajectory height, rather than at low angles to test the maximum range. American physicists developed the “½- rule” as a simple rule-of-thumb for non-physicists to avoid the complex maths and estimate the potential maximum horizontal ground range of an ICBM based on knowing the maximum vertical heights observed during test firings, as reported in the media. For example, a vertically launched missile that reaches a height of 400 km could potentially be launched at a lower angle to fly over a maximum ground range of 800 km.

The maths in the ½-rule uses an approximation which is only valid when the observed apogee height can be assumed

to be numerically small when compared to the radius of the Earth (6371 km). For a missile observed to reach a 4475 km apogee height, over a horizontal distance of 950 km, the ½-rule would predict a maximum ground range of about 9010 km on a flat Earth. The maths calculation gives a ground range of about 5300 km. The adjacent chart shows a comparison of ground range estimations using maths and the ½-rule, and indicates the ½-rule estimate closely approximates the calculated missile height up to about 750 km. Above 750 km, the ½–rule approximation is not necessarily valid.

Additionally, the maximum range calculation is based on the observed maximum altitude achieved by the test missile. This observed altitude may or may not be useful to determining the maximum possible range since it is not known if the test missile was fully laden with fuel and a simulated payload weight. A heavier ballistic missile will achieve a shorter range.

This is not to suggest that North Korea’s Hwasong-15 could not reach the ranges mentioned by some commentators, but understanding the capabilities of the system requires a complex analysis of a number of factors other than the apogee reached in a test firing. North Korea’s missile capability continues to grow as a threat to regional security and stability and the first step in addressing this threat is to understand the nuance of the capability.

Key Points• “Ballistic Missiles” are a class of large-calibre, self-

propelled, partially guided or unguided projectiles that follow a ballistic trajectory for most of their flight path.

• Unlike cruise missiles, ballistic missiles do not rely on aerodynamic forces and once the rocket-booster expires, it uses its momentum under the influence of gravity, on a ballistic trajectory to fall to its target.

• Ballistic missiles follow a trajectory that is described as sub-orbital and their ranges are controlled by a transfer of energy and the launch elevation angle.

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Disclaimer: The views in this Pathfinder are not necessarily those of the RAAF

Comparison of both calculated and ‘1/2-rule’ approximations for ICBM ground ranges.