the improvement of housing appraisal process with street block housing price index chung-hsien yang...
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![Page 1: The Improvement of Housing Appraisal Process with Street Block Housing Price Index Chung-Hsien Yang National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan Szu-Jung](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081516/56649e995503460f94b9c2b7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Improvement of Housing Appraisal Process with Street
Block Housing Price Index
Chung-Hsien Yang National Pingtung Institute of Commerce,
TaiwanSzu-Jung Huang
National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan
The 2010 Eureape Real Estate Society Conference June. 25th 2010
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What problems in Mass Appraisal?
•Poor attributes
•Limited data records and update
•Accuracy (still not great)
•Limited type (typical only)
•Limited Location
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What problems in Location?
• Traditional location—county / district
--Limited identify
--Poor accuracy
• GIS location—(Xn,Yn) relationship
--Poor economics meaning
--Sampling orient in location relationship
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Solution in this paper
• Street Block (SB) Price factor
--use the mean price in street block (single or merge street blocks)
--Modeling by sorting or comparison the Street Blocks
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Advantage in SB solution
• Smaller location from traditional
• Real and stable location relationship
• Clear economics meaning
• Easy to judge the location factor and
comparison the samples’ relationship
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The Data(1/2)
• The transaction records of housing from broker in Da-An district/Taipei/Taiwan
• 2958 observations in 2006Q1~2008Q3 and 15% of market share in Da_An district
• Building type: all is apartment house• Outliers detected (MRA model) and delete• 10% out-sample and 90% in-sample by
Quarterly district stratified random sampling
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The Data(2/2)
• We follow Yang and Huang(2009) developed street block price index in Da_An district/Taipei city.
• We use MRA with street block dummy and 3 years panel data model.
• There are 47 blocks in the index.
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Taipei city Taipei city (( 台北台北市市 ))
Daan district ( 大安區 )
Daan district ( 大安區 )
MRT : Zhongxiao Fuxing( 忠孝復與 )
MRT : Zhongxiao Fuxing( 忠孝復與 )MRT:Taipei main station
( 台北車站 )MRT:Taipei main station
( 台北車站 )
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105-117 100-105 96-100 91-95 86-90 81-85 76-80 70-75
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Daan district ( 大安區 )
Daan district ( 大安區 )
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Describe the Data of Da-An/ Taipei
Variables Mean average STD Deviation
Total Price (US$) 436.2 K 245.0 K
Price per M sq 4.1 K 1.2 K
Building Area 106.2 M sq 51.0 M sq
Land Area 21.7 M sq 13.6 M sq
Floor no. 5.5F 5.2F
Total Floor 8.6F 4.5F
Building Age 23.7Y 9.8Y
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The Model
• The OLS form (semi-log)
TLXP)ln(
P: total price
X: attributes of house
L: location or street block factors
T: Timing dummy variables
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5 modelsModel Setting Description
Model1 no street block factor
Model2 L: street block price index
Model3 L: 21 dummies in 22 street blocks
Model4 L: 2 dummies in 3 parts from SBPI
Model5 L1: L in model3
L2: L in model4
TLXP)ln(
TLXP)ln(
TLLXP 21)ln(
TLXP)ln(
TXP)ln(
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The Variables• Attributes of house: building area, sq. term; building
age, sq. term; xth of floor, sq. term; total floor; building type; land area; MRT distance; car site dummy
• Time Dummy var. : 2006Q1~2008Q2=1, 2008Q3=0
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Empirical process
• Sampling 100 times by quarterly for insample(90%) and outsample(10%)
• Run model1~model5 by various insample
• Check HitRate(10%, 20% of bias) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error ) by various outsamples
• Test the difference of various models by t test.
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Hitrate and MAPE
%100
)%)1((ˆ)%)1((
n
PaPPPaPcountHitRate
n
i i
ii
P
PP
nMAPE
1
%100ˆ1
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THE OUTPUT(1/4)(Hit Rate, 10% error)
Model HitRate
Paired t test (t value), *:
H0:
Mn-M1=0
(n~2,3,4,5)
H0:
M5-M2=0
H0:
M5-M3=0
H0:
M5-M4=0
1 45.00%
2 45.34% 2.43*
1.99*
3 45.58% 2.61*
1.21
4 45.41% 2.06*
1.67*5 45.76% 3.43**
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THE OUTPUT(2/4)(Hit Rate, 20% error)
Model HitRate
Paired t test (t value)
H0:
Mn-M1=0
(n~2,3,4,5)
H0:
M5-M2=0
H0:
M5-M3=0
H0:
M5-M4=0
1 73.17%
2 74.23% 8.11**
11.62**
3 75.95% 13.71**
5.21**
4 73.90% 4.37**
13.51**5 76.49% 14.48**
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THE OUTPUT(3/4)(MAPE)
Model MAPE
Paired t test (t value)
H0:
Mn-M1=0
(n~2,3,4,5)
H0:
M5-M2=0
H0:
M5-M3=0
H0:
M5-M4=0
1 15.19%
2 15.03% -7.28**
-15.75**
3 14.59% -16.89**
-9.06**
4 14.98% -9.48**
-17.92**5 14.47% -19.49**
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THE OUTPUT(4/4) (MAPE, Hit Rate)
Building
AreaModel
Hitrate
(10%)
Paired
t test(t value)
Hitrate
(20%)
Paired
t test(t value)
MAPE
Paired
t test(t value)
Under
54M2
1 42.33%12.62**
74.05%13.84**
15.36%-21.08**
5 53.54% 81.72% 12.31%
54M2~2
00M2
1 47.58%9.54**
77.55%21.49**
13.48%-25.78**
5 50.57% 82.04% 12.51%
Upper
200M2
1 47.62%-1.47
71.13%2.12*
15.79%1.06
5 45.44% 73.60% 16.21%
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Conclusion• The Street Block Price factors has more
quality control and better accuracy than traditional Mass Appraisal.
• Both the relationship of street blocks in price and the level of street block price have improved for Mass Appraisal.
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Thank You