the impact of technology · source: aaron koblincharles fadel charles fadel charlesfadel(at)...
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Charles FadelSource: Aaron Koblin
Charles Fadel
Charlesfadel (at) gmail (dot) com
The impact of technology
CCR PlenaryParis, June 4, 2012
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Non-Digital Displacement Technologies
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Offshoring Health Care
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Impact of Technology
Personal deliveryImpersonal delivery
Typing clerk � Bookkeeping
Legal discovery � Legal Opinion
Taxi driver
Surgeon
Policeman
Court proceeding
Security video monitoring
Radiologist
• Autonomous vehicles•Telepresence• Telemedicine
� Robot patrols
� Pathologist
NonroutineSkill
RoutineSkill
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Google Autonomous Vehicle
>200kmiles through 2011,
one minor accidents,
occasional human intervention
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“Computational Pathologist”
“Computers found more accurate than doctors in breast-cancer diagnosis”
Science Magazine November 10, 2011
“Computational Pathologist” by
Stanford Schools of Engineering and Medicine
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Even modeling
Source: Le Monde Culture & Idees, December 24, 2011
H&M admits using a mannequin as digital model with “no flaws”
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Displacement due to Technology
Ox � Harvester
Horse � Automobile
Lab Mice � Assays (not soon enough8)
Humans: Scribes � printing pressWashers � washing machineCashiers/Attendants � bar code scannerHealthcare/Finance/Services/Jeopardy champions � Watson
etc
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IBM One-Two-Three-Four punchesSyNAPSE (chip) + BlueBrain (system) + Watson (software) + Cloud Computing (infrastructure)
SyNAPSE
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Technology Acceleration
0 1 2 3 4 5 (number of years)
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
pe
r $
sp
en
t
Doubling Time (months):9
12
18
Optical fiber bandwidth (bps)
Storage density (bits/sq-cm)
Si chip density (# of transistors/area)
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Time
Quantity
x Speed
Antiquity Internet AgeRenaissance Industrial
Revolution
���� Modern
Times
The impact of Search
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Coping with data overload
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Misperceptions might be hardwired
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But they are trainable
So we should train exponential thinking too!
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"Name your reward!""Oh emperor, give me one grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the next square, four for the next, and so on for
all 64 squares, with each square having double the number of grains as the
square before."
= 1,000 times 2010 global rice production
Can we train for exponentials ?
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Even more impressive5 Algorithmic progress
� Production planning model solved using linear programming:
1988: 82 years
2003: 1 minute
� A factor of roughly 43 million in 15 years
~1,000 due to increased processor speed,
~43,000 due to improvements in algorithms!
� ~30,000 for mixed integer programming (1991� 2008)
Source: Professor Martin Grötschel of Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik Berlin.
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Distributed Computing - Folding@Home
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More to come
� iPhone: $400 price point
• 40T in 2015
• 40E in 2025
� Video record your entire life (2025)
� ExoBrain (2025-2030)
} Already possible
in the Cloud !
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Quantum Computing’s Promise
“A quantum computer of just 150 QuBits would have the power of all of today’s supercomputers”
Alan Aspuru-Guzik, Harvard University
Performance reached: • 2005: 1 QuBit• 2009: 2 Qubits• 2010: 16 QuBits• 2011: 84 QuBits• 2012: 128 QuBits ($10M!)
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More to come5 3-D Printing
“3-D Printing Spurs a Manufacturing Revolution”September 13, 2010
“It’s about going from the Model T to something like a Mini that has 10 million permutations.”
Scott Summit, Bespoke Innovations:
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More to come5 Things
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More to come – Augmented Reality
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More to come5 Virtual Reality
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More to come5 Robotics
Video: Aldebaran Robotics
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More to come5 Nanomaterials
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More to come5 Brain-enhancers
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More to come5 Biotech
MOLECULAR CARTOGRAPHY: 2,898 proteins (nodes) by 5,460 interactions (edges). Science, 303:540–3, 2004.)Validating the Interactome - The Scientist - Magazine of the Life Sciences http://www.the-scientist.com/article/display/14769/#ixzz1cAq1h53e
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Brave New World
Human Genome mapping (2005)
“Technology today can do in five minutes a decoding task that would have taken a year to complete a decade ago”
Eric Lander, Founder, The Broad Institute
Improvement by a factor
of 1 million in ten years
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A combinatorial explosion of possibilities
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Who would have thought of 5
� 15 years ago: Bioinformatics
� 5 years ago: Optogenetics
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“The future is already here –
it's just not very evenly distributed.”
Science-Fiction author William Gibson,
quoted in The Economist,
December 4, 2003
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Reality Check
"and underestimate the effect in the long run.“
“We tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run8
Source: Roy Amara, Former President, Institute for the Future
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Hype Cycle
Source: Gartner Group
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So what should students learn in5
8 an ambiguous/uncertain era, with ubiquitous search and A.I.?
• Fluidity with Technology
• Versatility
• Adaptability
• Resilience
• Critical thinking – and asking the right questions
• Synthesizing/integrating
• Creating !
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Knowledge state of a person
1. Your Brain: Remind & Remediate: The knowledge has existed in the person's brain before, but been forgotten or made inaccessible. The person must be reminded of what they once knew or be remediated
2. Someone Else's Brain: Receive & Reconstruct: The knowledge has existed in someone else’s head, but never in the particular person's head. the person must receive or reconstruct the information
3. No One's Brain: Research & Reflect: The knowledge has never existed in any human's brain, and so the learner must discover it on their own. Asking the right questions becomes the highest level of learning meta-skill to be developed.
Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden
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Technical fluidity: Chess as example
� “Human strategic guidance combined with the tactical acuity of a
computer was overwhelming.”
� “Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong
computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human
+ machine + inferior process”
Source: Gary Kasparov, “The Chess Master and the Computer,” New York Review of Books, February 11, 2010
How about learning Processes?
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Versatility as a strategy
mTBroad Knowledge
Single vs Multiple
Deep Expertise
m-shaped Individual, not just T-shaped
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It Takes All Talents
Research:
Giant magnetoresistance
Compression algorithms
Key Profile:
Researcher
Development:
H/W, S/W design
Breadboarding & test
Key Profiles:
Engineer
Technician
Production:
Manufacturing
Test
Key Profiles:
Engineer
Technician
Supply chain Mgt
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User Interface:
Design
Key Profiles:
Anthropologist
Psychologist
Industrial Design
Marketing/Sales:
Product positioning
Sales
Key Profiles:
Marketing
Sales
Business
Legal & Finance:
Contracts
Financing
Key Profiles:
Legal
Para-Legal
Finance
STEM and Humanities Both Matter
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From the Master
“Technology alone is not enough8 it’s technology married with liberal arts, married with humanities, that yield the results that make our hearts sing”.
Steve Jobs, iPad2 intro speech, March 2011
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Creativity& Innovation
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“The dancing salesman problem”
Source: The Painting Fool
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Computerized Trading – Flash Crash
>75% of volume is now “high-speed trading”
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Visual arts too
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Even Music
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“Computers will write more than 90 percent of news in 15 years, and will win a Pulitzer Prize within 5 years.”
Kristian Hammond, CTO and cofounder of Narrative Science,
a company that trains computers to write news stories.
Even Journalism ?
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Innovation follows patterns ���� automatable
Source: Invention Machine “IM Labs”
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The Race between Technology and Education
Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)
Industrial Revolution
Social pain
Social pain
Prosperity
Technology
Education
Digital Revolution
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An Analogy of Technology vs Education
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Change is Inevitable But do we want a Dickensian world ??
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“Event Horizon”: What if formal education cannot catch up ?
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http://curriculumredesign.org/