the impact of changing technologies€¦ · take away anytime data – real time, anytime and...

This presentation may not be distributed without permissionCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc.

David SmithCEO HBMG [email protected]

The Impactof Changing

Technologies

Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity

Technology Acceleration

K-12 Science& Math Crisis

IntangibleCapital

Virtual Worlds

3 Billion New Capitalists

Demographics

Offshore Competition

Global TalentExplosion

Regional EconomicDislocation

Economic & Financial

English as 2nd

Russia - China

Economic Unions

Terrorism

Cyber Warfare

Pandemic

Flat Wages End of Moore’s LawHBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

Context

Current macroeconomic conditions are challenging

HBMG Inc. Copyright

How the World Has Changed

• Most businesses are global at launch

• Businesses are increasingly real time

• Convergence has become a way of life

• Science, product development, and product cycles are compressing

• The source of value has shifted for manufacturing

• Competencies, future capabilities, and “ultra tech”are the prime driver

• The traditional value chain is forever dead

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2009

2001 – 2006

From 2 million to 20 million Chinese buying on-line goods

1984 – 1989

Height of the Cold War to the Wall comes down

What Can Happen in 5 Years?

1945 – 1949

War to Marshall Plan

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New Economic Superpowers in 2050?

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The Growth Of Complexity

LowerManagementComplexity

HigherManagementComplexity

DODweaponsystem

National AirTraffic ControlSystem

Telecom switch

Large-scalesimulation

DODmanagementinformationsystem

Enterpriseinformationsystems

Enterpriseapplication

Businessspreadsheet

Smallscientificsimulation

Embeddedautomotiveapplication Commercial

compiler

LowerTechnical

Complexity

HigherTechnical

Complexity

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Technology—Webster’s

• The science of the practical or

industrial arts

• Applied science

• A method of achieving a practical

purpose

• The totality of the means employed to

provide objects necessary for human

sustenance and comfort

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2009

What is Technology?

“Application of knowledge to objectives”

—J. P. McTague, “Wielding a Three-

Edged Sword,” Federal Lab

Technology

Transfer: Issues and Policies (1988)

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2009

The Limits of Technology

The laws of physics

The laws of software

The challenge of algorithms

The difficulty of distribution

The problems of design

The importance of organization

The impact of economics

The influence of politics

The limits of human imagination

Fundamental

HumanHBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

Mega Trends to Consider…

• Digitization of all content (listening = getting!)

• Distribution is the default (just having a network won’t be

enough)

• Virtualization (location matters less and less)

• Niche-ization of Content & Lifestyles

• Mass-Personalization of media will become standard

• Democratization of Creation, & Peer Production

• A mature-azation of the entire value chain (but NOT to

the detriment of experts)

• “Godzilla-zation” of users/consumers

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The system of convergence areas

Convergence of devices

Convergence of technologies

Convergence of networks

Convergence of services

Convergence of markets

Convergence: The Concept

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Technology:

• Computers & Peripherals

• Semi-conductors

• Internet apps

• Software

• Internet devices

Telecom:

• Communication Equipment

- Service

- Providers:

• Telephone/

• Voice & Data

•Mobile

•Wireless/

• Voice & Data

Network:

•Networking/

• IP Networking

- Service

Providers:

• Internet Service Providers

•Broadband

• Satellite

•Broadcast Cable

Content:

•Media & New

•Media

•Advertising

• Printing, Publishing and Newspapers

Entertainment:

•Broadcasting

• Film

•Music

•Gaming

• Sports

Vertical Convergence with an Industry

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Design

Manufacturing

Infrastructure

Services

Devices

Software

Distribution

Content

Technology:

Computers & Computers &

PeripheralsPeripherals

SemiconductorsSemiconductors

Internet appsInternet apps

SoftwareSoftware

Internet devicesInternet devices

Telecom:

Communication Communication

EquipmentEquipment

Service Service

Providers:Providers:

Telephone/Telephone/

Voice & DataVoice & Data

Mobile Wireless/Mobile Wireless/

Voice & DataVoice & Data

Network:

Networking/Networking/

IP NetworkingIP Networking

Service Service

Providers:Providers:

ISP(s)ISP(s)

BroadbandBroadband

SatelliteSatellite

Broadcast Broadcast

CableCable

Content:

Media & Media &

New MediaNew Media

AdvertisingAdvertising

Printing, Printing,

Publishing & Publishing &

NewspapersNewspapers

Entertainment:

BroadcastingBroadcasting

FilmFilm

MusicMusic

GamingGaming

SportsSports

Horizontally Across Different Industry Sectors

HBMG Inc. Copyright 2009

Convergence of Devices…the Most Visible…

Mobile phones turn into mobile multifunctional devices:

– Integrated FM radio

– Camera

– DVB-H on mobile phones

– Integrated WiFi

Personal Communications Devices– TV cards

– MP3 Devices

Interactive TV-sets– display a TV signal & computer data simultaneously,

watching TV and surfing Internet at the same time

Final stage – service / network neutral devices– Emphasis on programming equipment

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2009

Today’s Mobile Reality is Changing

2 billion mobile phone users worldwide

– Historically communication devices

Mobile phones are no longer “phones”

– Multi-media devices

– Capture and consume

– Entertainment, information services

Digitalization, Miniaturization, Mobility, Connectivity, Communities

By 2010 there will be 3Bn users of “mobile devices”and 3Bn TV viewers Multi-media devices

People are spending more time with new media

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

This presentation may not be distributed without permission

Digital Music Adapters

Wireless Gaming Adapters

Digital Video Adapters

Movies-on-DemandReceivers

Satellite Radio Receivers

“Fourth Generation”Set-top Boxes

Networked Storage Centers

Game Consoles

MP3 Players

Digital Cameras

Smart Displays

Digital Media Receivers Personal Video Recorders

Networked DVD Player Mobile Gaming Devices

Smart Phones

PDAs

Wireless CamerasWireless TV Monitors

Laptop PCs

Desktop PCs

802.11 Speakers

Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

101 100 10-1102

104

106

108

Number of chip components

Feature size (microns)

1010

1012

1018

1014

1016

10-2 10-3

Classical Age

Historical Trend

SIA Roadmap2010

CMOS

19952000

2005

1970

1980

1990

4oK

Quantum Age

77oK

295oK

Quantum State Switch

Scaling of Electronic Devices

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2009

EmbeddednessThe Invisible Computer

EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”

Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced materials and sensing devices.

In 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user.

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

Security

“May you live in

interesting times”

Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc.


“Interesting” Good

• Many products to choose from

• Rich set of features and functions

• Multiplatform solutions beginning to

appear

• Movement to Web and Cloud

• Changing TCO


“Interesting” Not So Good

• High cost

• Different solutions for most devices

• Most not standards-based

• Unique, non-intuitive interfaces

• Significant training required

• Limited features and functionality at this time

Why is Security Hard?

No system can be 100% secure

– Reality is risk mitigation, not risk avoidance

Difficult to prove good security

– Bad security gets proven for us!

Good security and no security can look the same

– How does one know how secure they are?

Many things to secure

– People, equipment, OS, network, Application Servers,

applications, phones, and databases


Risk Management And Needed Security

Unacceptable RiskUnacceptable Risk

Acceptable RiskAcceptable Risk

Security engineering defines probabilitySecurity engineering defines probability

Probability of exploit

Imp

act

to

bu

sin

ess

LowLow HighHigh

HighHighB

usin

ess d

efi

nes

im

pa

ct

Bu

sin

ess d

efi

nes

im

pa

ct

Risk management drives risk to an acceptable level


Industry Adopts Grid Technology

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Examples

Google Magic — The “Sort by Magic” in Google Reader feature suggests blog posts based on your Reader browsing history and feeds. Blending “Sort by Magic” with the “Popular” function, relevant, interesting and highly targeted information is brought to the end-user.

Mozilla Raindrop — The inbox is very democratic —in that every e-mail carries the same weight. Your Jet Blue coupon is just as important as an e-mail from your mother. Mozilla Raindrop fixes this problem through a hierarchical rating system that prioritizes your incoming mail so important information doesn’t get buried and lost.


Even as grids take hold, the IT landscapeis changing rapidly…

Technology is rapidly being commoditized

Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services

In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen as complex and rigid

© Harvard Business Review


The “Fat Pipe”

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2009

Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New Paradigm

1990

A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides:• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT resources

• Capacity on demand with massive scalability• New application service delivery models• Platform for next generation data centers• Development in the cloud, for the cloud

2015

Software as a Service

Utility Computing

Grid Computing

“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry…profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.”

Cloud Computing


Cloud Computing 'Platform as a service' (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Software as a service (SaaS

� Public Clouds

� Application-centric cloud platforms

� Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOs

lead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic

decision for enterprise IT

� Private Clouds

• Amazon spins off a private cloud. As part of this, Dave

says IBM gets a a cloud, Coté says Amazon partners with

IBM or HP (or Snorkle?) to do a container box cloud.

• VMWare ships a private cloud in a container.

� Hybrid cloud



Competing in the CloudCompeting in the Cloud

- IBM spend $360 million to build a cloud computing data center

- Sun Micro, Dell

- IBM spend $360 million to build a cloud computing data center

- Sun Micro, Dell

- Google Apps for Free

- Amazon’s prices start at 20cents

- Google Apps for Free

- Amazon’s prices start at 20cents

- Microsoft's mantra is "software plus services"

- AT&T

- Microsoft's mantra is "software plus services"

- AT&T

- Google ally IBM & Salesforce.com

- HP's purchase of Opsware

- Google ally IBM & Salesforce.com

- HP's purchase of Opsware


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Pe

tab

yte

s/D

ay G

lob

al

• Mobile • Device to Device • Sensors • Entertainment• Smart Home• Distributed

Industrial• Autos/Trucks• Smart Toys

2012

ConvergedContent

Traditional Computation

Growth at the Edge of the Network


1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Complexity

Punch Card

Computing

Mainframe/Midrange

Computing

Client/Server Computing

Internet/Network Computing

Ubiquitous Computing

Department Intra- Extra- Personal Anytime-Process Centered Enterprises Enterprises Anywhere

Peer-to-Peer


TOLL

15.62 Gallons

27.33 Dollars

Thank You!

People to

Things

People to

People

Things to

Things

The Nature of Communications Has Been Changing...


The Global Grid


To Every Sensor is a Server

Processor

Data Storage

Communications

Rich variety of

sensors

Smart Dust

Microphone

Microstorage

(Areal density 100x’s CD)

Phone -PDA

Embedded

Biofluidics Chip

Robot


Ubiquitous Computing

Laptops outsell desktops already

Handheld PCs are gaining market share

Appliances become smart

– Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators,

stoves, etc.

• As the profit margin on basic

hardware gets squeezed out,

smarts are the next competitive

area

Even your pet…


Enabler—Just Another Computer Cycle?

Why Now?

1. Broadband Becoming Pervasive2. Internet-enabled Devices Becoming Pervasive3. Global Technology Innovation May Be at an All-time High.

Four Major Computing Cycles Over the Past 50 Years:

Mainframe Minicomputer PC PC Internet (Narrowband)

Now in the Most Profound Cycles Ever:

PC Internet (Broadband) Mobile Internet

Leading To:

Ubiquitous Computing (Invisible Computing)


Take Away

Anytime Data – Real Time, Anytime and Anywhere: As we continue our long march into the world of Cloud Computing and Internet centric applications in 2010 I believe that real time information (data) will be the most important asset any business large or small can have.

The one thing that Moore’s Law and software development has taught us over the last 30 years is the more compute resource we have available the more we use

Future of InfoTech

Enterprise and Grid Management

Service OrientedArchitectureSecurity

Operating Systems VirtualizationOpen Source

Communications

RoboticsSensor Feeds

Storage ServersDevelopmentEnvironment

Collaboration

VisualizationVirtual Reality Applications

Devices ISR Tools Search


Final View on Convergence

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009


We are born to work and play

together in teams. But we have to

give enough of ourselves to let the

filaments connect.

Paul F. Levy, CEO

Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center


The Three Cs of Collaboration Tools and Technology

Communication(IDEAS)

Collaboration(DATA)

Coordination(WORK)

Three Cs of Collaboration Tools

Communication(IDEAS)

Collaboration(DATA)

Coordination(WORK)

Three Cs of Collaboration Tools


Challenge and Opportunity

• Rapid establishment of distributed teams in ever changing, complex world

• Growing transnational threats and opportunities require virtual, global, multidisciplinary teams

• Future teams need to be:

– secure

– fast and agile –re-task able, coordinated, precise

– decisive in a dynamic, complex, uncertain world

– knowledge superior

• Distributed, Collaborative (synchronous/asynchronous) analysis/decision support


Collaboration Technologies

Source: David Smith


A.I. Deep Search Intelligent Agents

Weak Signals

Inference Engines

XML

Ontologies

Taxonomics

Knowledge Bases

Knowledge Management

Life Casting

Life Logs

Knowledge Networks

Intelligent Marketplaces Group

Intelligence

Enterprise Minds

Group Minds

Emergent Groups

Market Places

Search Engines

Content Portals

Databases

File Servers

Websites

Enterprise Portals

Groupware

PIMs

P2P File Sharing

Mobile Technologies

Auctions

Wikis

IM

WeBlogs

Social Networks

Community Portals

Email

SOCIAL MEDIAPeople

WEBInformation

Semantic WebKnowledge

Reed’s -Self Formation

MetawebDigital World

Speed of Connectivity — Social

Sp

eed

of

Co

nn

ecti

vit

y —

Info

rmati

on

al

Source: David Smith

Virtual Worlds

Massive Multiplayer

Games

Phone Calls

Conference Calls

Computer Conferencing

Evolving—Self Forming


Convergence reduces costs and risks

SecurityInformation &

EventsSystems

Identity & Access Privileges

ComprehensiveSecurity &

Compliance


Hierarchy of Needs

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

Key Mega Trends for IT Info Sharing

Convergence and trend towards unified communications and user empowerment

– Consumerization is the most important component of this mega trend.

All IT around the globe is being impacted by this trend. IT development

will focus increasingly on consumers with less on government or

enterprises

– Mass collaboration on problems. Social networking and IT tools to

support that.

Globalization and increasing internationalization of IT and other Science and Technology

– US stockholders own most enterprise IT companies but most

engineering is overseas (expect more enterprise IT solutions from

overseas).

– Decreasing Intellectual Capital Advantage of the US

– Aging workforce in the US and other key Western nations

– Global competition for talent

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

Key Mega Trends for IT Info Sharing

Increasing open development of software and hardware

– Embraced by all major IT companies and large numbers of programmers

– This trend is fueling a growing need for in-house programming talent

– Even proprietary code is built with open interfaces

Increasing pace of technology development and probability of disruption

– InfoTech, NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of each other

– Must assimilate new technologies fast

– Ugly fact: Our systems are in many ways subject to degradation, either

due to malicious activity or due to interdependencies of complex systems

1) These trends will impact us whether we like it or not.2) All of these trends underscore importance of agility.

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

3 Web generations

“Technology overshoot” effects

What can I contribute?Participation

Information-Web

What I need to knowContext

Symantic Web

Access

World Wide Web

05 10 15AccessibleAccount managementBrand = QualityBroad user accessTransactions

ProgrammableCommunity ManagementPeers = QualityRich user interfaceInteractions

ProactiveIdentity managementNeed = QualityEnvironment as interfaceTacit interactions


For the rest of the world, this is the Internet

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

The Flip-Flop is Here!

Most technology in the hands of consumers

today –mobile phones, broadband networking, computers and printers– all

started out in business applications.

• NOW, individual

consumers will bring the technology back into the workplace.


IT Trends

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mainframe/Midrange

Client Server

Ubiquitous

Appliances

Punch Card

Network

HBMG Inc. Copyright

2009

the impact of changing technologies€¦ · take away anytime data – real time, anytime and...

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