Contents

Local Climate Solutions for Africa (LoCS4Africa) 2017

Water & Climate Congress

The Green Book 23 March 2017

Jeremy Gibberd

jgibberd@csir.co.za

2

Planning and design guidelines for adapting South African

settlement to climate change

1. The story behind the project

2. Proposed research design

3. Potential contribution, value

and impact of project

Content of presentation

With input from: Willeminen van Neikerk Alize le Roux, Amy

Pieterse, Jean-Marc Mwenge Kahinda, Francois Engelbrecht

The story behind the project

• In March 2016 the International Development Research Centre

(IDRC) awarded a grant to BE and NRE for the development of

planning and design guidelines to adapt South African

settlements to Climate Change.

• The CSIR is co-funding the project for 50% through the Thematic

Programme.

• The project is worth almost R24 million, over 36 months, ending 15

March 2019.

• Our external partners are the African Institute for Inclusive Growth

(AIIG) and the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC).

Background

• Develop a set of guidelines – called the Green Book – to adapt

existing and future South African settlements to climatic

changes.

• Differentiated adaptation options will be developed for

distinctive types of vulnerable settlements with similar risk

profiles.

• Focus on settlements smaller than 2 million people, to benefit more

than 18 million people as well as under-capacitated municipalities.

• The Green Book and Red Book (Guidelines for Human Settlement

Planning and Design) will be complementary to each other, where

the Green Book looks at cities holistically and propose adaptation

options, while the Red Book provides the guidelines on detailed

residential neighbourhood design.

The story behind the project Purpose of the project

Research design

Step 1: Scope and assess existing

adaptation plans

Step 2: Analyse downscaled climate

projections

Step 3: Adapt the existing settlement

typology Excluded: 20 Million (5) 54% City Regions: 1.1 Million (1) 3% Cities: 3.8 Million (5) 9% Regional service centres: 7.3 Million (41) 11% Service Towns: 2.7 Million (44) 4% Local niche town: 4.3 Million (>600) 6%

Step 4: Identify high risk areas under a

changing climate

Impact of CC on water resources

Step 5: Develop risk profiles for different

settlement types

Sett

lem

en

t ty

po

logy

Hazard footprint

Risk profile Sea-level rise

Flooding Heat waves

Drought Landslide Fire

Coastal settlements

Cities

Richard’s Bay

x x x Coastal area at risk of SLR, flooding and landslides

Nelson Mandela Bay

x x Coastal area at risk of SLR and flooding

Regional centres

George x x x x Coastal area at risk of SLR, flooding and landslides

Mossel Bay x x x Coastal area at risk of SLR, flooding and landslides

Central service towns

Port St Johns x x x x Coastal area at risk of SLR, flooding and landslides

Still Bay x x Coastal area at risk of SLR and flooding

Arid settlements

Cities

Upington x x x Inland areas at risk of drought, heat waves and flooding

Kimberley x x x Inland areas at risk of drought, heat waves and veld fires

Regional centres

Kathu x x Inland areas at risk of drought and heat waves

Cradock x x x Inland areas at risk of drought, heat waves and veld fires

Central service towns

Calvinia x x x Inland areas at risk of drought, heat waves and veld fires

Hopetown x x Inland areas at risk of drought and heat waves

Source: Guideline on CC adapted urban planning and design for Ho Chi Minh City/Vietnam

Step 6: Develop climate change

adaptation options

Step 6: Develop climate change

adaptation options

Source: Guideline on CC adapted urban planning and design for Ho Chi Minh City/ Vietnam

• Climate change projections will be downscaled to 8x8 km grids

the whole of South Africa and become available for 2030, 2050 and

2100.

• Geographic locations of hazard footprints of actual floods, water

availability, fire, drought, run-off, etc. will be identified.

• A cost-benefit framework of the adaptation options will be

provided to assist constrained local governments to base their

decisions on evidence.

• This scientific evidence will help government to prioritise their

action based on where the biggest impact can be expected.

Scientific contribution Contribution, value & impact