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The Great Recession May 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist 2007-2009 The recovery has started, really.

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Page 1: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

The Great Recession

May 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist

2007-2009

The recovery has started, really.

Page 2: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Labor Market Information •Job Descriptions •Education •Wages •Employment levels •Future Growth

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Labor Market is like the Stock Market. In the stock market people buy, sale and trade stocks. In the Labor Market anyone with a job participates and trades time, skills and work for income. LMI is anything that is related to work.
Page 3: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

• NM Economic Situation – Industry

• Recession History/impact of • Current Situation • What’s Next

– Occupations • Sources of Data

– Career Solutions – LASER

Agenda

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Agenda
Page 4: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

The Great Recession

•Started December 2007

•Housing Peaked on 2006

•High Oil and Gas prices early 2007

•Financial Markets in August 2007

Presenter
Presentation Notes
One of the agreed upon indications of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of GDP decline which occurred Dec. 2007. The primary
Page 5: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

New Mexico Private Housing Building Permits, 1988 - Present

Presenter
Presentation Notes
This is why we lost over 11,000 jobs in construction. Last year we just went over 4000. No recovery in sight for new housing. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NMBPPRIV/downloaddata?rid=148&soid=19
Page 6: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 NM Oil Rig Count

Average price per barrel in 2006 was $62.65

Average price per Barrel in 2002 was $27.46

Oil prices averaged $91.77 in 2008

Current price per Barrel is about $97.26

2011 summer hovered around $100.00 In September fell to $79.85 Finishing in December around $100.00

Presenter
Presentation Notes
State Revenue depends in part on oil & gas taxes. http://octane.nmt.edu/gotech/Rigcount/monthlyavg_rigcount.aspx?year=2012
Page 7: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 19

70

1971

19

72

1973

19

74

1975

19

76

1977

19

78

1979

19

80

1981

19

82

1983

19

84

1985

19

86

1987

19

88

1989

19

90

1991

19

92

1993

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

2007

20

08

2009

20

10

2011

20

12

ISM Manufacturing

.

Values above 50 represent expansion.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
In the mid 70’s and 80’ high inflation and energy costs effected manufacturing. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NAPM.txt
Page 8: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US Retail Sales, 1992 to present

Presenter
Presentation Notes
A combination of the financial market meltdown and consumer fear had a major impact on consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/download/text/adv44y72.txt
Page 9: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

US In thousands

NM

Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000 19

90-0

1 19

90-0

8 19

91-0

3 19

91-1

0 19

92-0

5 19

92-1

2 19

93-0

7 19

94-0

2 19

94-0

9 19

95-0

4 19

95-1

1 19

96-0

6 19

97-0

1 19

97-0

8 19

98-0

3 19

98-1

0 19

99-0

5 19

99-1

2 20

00-0

7 20

01-0

2 20

01-0

9 20

02-0

4 20

02-1

1 20

03-0

6 20

04-0

1 20

04-0

8 20

05-0

3 20

05-1

0 20

06-0

5 20

06-1

2 20

07-0

7 20

08-0

2 20

08-0

9 20

09-0

4 20

09-1

1 20

10-0

6 20

11-0

1 20

11-0

8 20

12-3

NM US

NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present

Presenter
Presentation Notes
You can see the dips the US took thru previous recessions…Because we have gov’t and energy jobs, NM did better until this one. Also note how deep this recession has been compared to the earlier ones.
Page 10: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

How BAD?

• Max September 2008: 852,900 • Min January 2011: 795,700 • Difference: -57,200

March 2008: 847,500 March 2012: 804,400 Difference: -43,100

Labor Market Supply and Demand!

NM Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted:

Presenter
Presentation Notes
New Mexico lost about 57,000 jobs. We currently are doing better but still have a lot of ground to make up. This is the job supply and a consequence of increase demand with decreasing supply is for wages to decline.
Page 11: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Industries Change

•Mining lost over 500

•Construction shed about 16,000

•Manufacturing lost another 8,000

•Retail took a hit with 6,000

•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000

•Bright spot Health Care +12,000

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 Agriculture

Mining

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation & Warehousing

Information

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate

Professional & Technical Services

Management Companies & Enterprises

Administrative & Waste Services

Educational Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation

Accommodation & Food Services

Other Services, Ex. Public Admin

Public Administration

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The reason health care is given so much focus is because they have significantly added jobs during this recession.
Page 12: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Central Area Industry Change

-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Agriculture Mining* Utilities

Construction Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

Transportation & Warehousing Information

Finance and Insurance Real Estate

Professional & Technical Services Management Companies & Enterprises

Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services

Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin

Public Administration

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Central area is very similar to the statewide. The industries with 0 didn’t change and/or had little employment to start with. *Some of the counties in this region had suppressed data for this industry
Page 13: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Eastern Area Industry Change

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Agriculture* Mining*

Utilities* Construction*

Manufacturing* Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing

Information Finance and Insurance

Real Estate* Professional & Technical Services

Management Companies & Enterprises* Administrative & Waste Services*

Educational Services* Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services

Other Services, Ex. Public Admin* Public Administration

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Eastern Area is very different from statewide. Growth in Construction & Manufacturing is related to the uranium enrichment plant and other energy generation projects. *Some of the counties in this region had suppressed data for this industry
Page 14: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

-6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Agriculture Mining

Utilities* Construction

Manufacturing* Wholesale Trade*

Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing*

Information* Finance and Insurance

Real Estate* Professional & Technical Services

Management Companies & Enterprises* Administrative & Waste Services*

Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation* Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin

Public Administration

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Northern Area Industry Change

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Northern area was especially hit hard by the recession. *Some of the counties in this region had suppressed data for this industry
Page 15: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Southwestern Area Industry Change

-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Agriculture Mining* Utilities

Construction* Manufacturing*

Wholesale Trade* Retail Trade

Transportation & Warehousing Information*

Finance and Insurance Real Estate

Professional & Technical Services Management Companies & Enterprises*

Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services*

Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation*

Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin*

Public Administration

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Grants county had the mine re-open, Las Cruces continues to show some signs of growth during this recession. *Some of the counties in this region had suppressed data for this industry
Page 16: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Employment Industry Mix Utilities Mgt of Companies Real

Estate Agriculture Arts &

Entertainment Information

Transportation Mining Other Services

Finance

Wholesale

Manufacturing

Admin, Support & Waste Mgt

Construction

Professional, Scientific & Tech Svc

Educational Svcs Accommodation &

Food Svcs

Retail Trade

Government (EX. Health & ED.)

Health Care & Social Assistance

Source: Projections unit 2009-2019, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Gov employment in Health and Ed. – Healthcare is the largest sector by employment. Small slices by employment Utilities, Real Estate & Agriculture, still have large monetary impact on the economy.
Page 17: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

The Great Recession Ended July 2009?

17

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The US economy stopped contracting June 2009 and showed an increase in July 2009. Employment will be slower to recover which is a characteristic that makes this recession different from other recent ones.
Page 18: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Current Employment Situation The unemployment rate for:

March 2012 March 2011

The US is at 8.2% 8.9%

New Mexico 7.2% 7.5%

Albuquerque 7.5% 8.0 %

Las Cruces 7.0% 7.6 %

Santa Fe 5.3% 6.2 %

Farmington 7.1% 8.3 %

The bad news is…

Seasonally Adjusted

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Unemployed and actively seeking employment in the last month. A very narrow definition of economic hardship. We expect a spike in unemployment as employers begin advertise job openings and add more jobs again.
Page 19: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

What about…

19

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6

NM 15.1% US 15.6%

Second Quarter of 2011 through First Quarter of 2012 Averages.

• Unemployed

• Part time for economic reasons

• Multiple Jobs holders

•Marginally attached workers

•Bureau of Labor Statistics

•4 QTR Moving Average

•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

Part time but would work

full time Discouraged unemployed workers

Multiple job holders

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm broader measure of “unemployment” that fits closer with perceptions of the difficult economy and the hardships experienced by workers.
Page 20: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

County Unemployment Rates

6.5 7.8

6.2

6.0

7.4

4.4 4.2

6.6 4.0

7.1

8.9

3.8

4.2

5.3

3.1

16.9

7.9 13.6

5.8

7.1

7.2

4.4

6.5

6.7 7.8 5.2

6.1

4.8

7.9

7.9

4.3

7.8

5.4

7.2

8.2

6.6

6.2

7.8

4.6 3.8

7.2 4.1

7.2

11.2

4.2

5.9

4.3

5.5

3.1

19.9

8.7 13.9

7.2

7.2

8.4

4.6

7.1

7.3 8.1 5.5

6.7

5.0

9.1

7.7

4.5

8.2

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Source is the Mapping tool at http://data.bls.gov/map/
Page 21: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM UI Continued Claims Duration

Based on UI Summary Data 2nd Qtr 2011:

Average Duration 20.1 weeks in 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

071-074 072-081 073-082 074-083 081-084 082-091 083-092 084-093 091-094 092-101 093-102 094-103 101-104 102-111

Tota

l Une

mpl

oyed

(Tho

usan

ds)

Four-Quarter Period

Chart 1: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)

52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Prior to this recession duration of claims in the 52+ was a very small percentage. Workers who have been out of the workforce for big blocks of time have to overcome employers questions on work skills being current. http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/content/data.asp for Average Duration by State.
Page 22: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1948

19

49

1950

19

51

1952

19

53

1954

19

55

1956

19

57

1958

19

59

1960

19

61

1962

19

63

1964

19

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1966

19

67

1968

19

69

1970

19

71

1972

19

73

1974

19

75

1976

19

77

1978

19

79

1980

19

81

1982

19

83

1984

19

85

1986

19

87

1988

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

Men Women

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For many years, men's unemployment rates were generally lower than women's both during and between recessions. However, since the early 1980s when labor force participation rates evened out between men and women, men's unemployment rates have been higher than women's during or immediately after recessions, and the rates for men and women have been quite similar in other periods. Higher unemployment among men was especially notable during and immediately after the recent recession.
Page 23: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age 2011 annual averages

22.9

12.5

8.7 6.5

5.5 3.9 4.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over

Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

7.4%

Presenter
Presentation Notes
During recessions youth tend to have higher unemployment rates and this one has not been an exception. Mom and Dad they really can’t find a job. Annual Average UR was 7.4% From pdf at http://www.bls.gov/lau/ptable14full2011.pdf or http://www.bls.gov/gps/tables.htm
Page 24: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

New Mexico 2010 Unemployment Rate

8.6%

9.2%

14.4%

8.8%

11.6%

11.1%

11.3%

7.2%

9.0%

White, one race

Black or African American, one race

American Indian and Alaska Native, one race

Asian, one race

Some other race

Two or more races

Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)

White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

Population 20 to 64 years

Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin

Source: 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301 Employment Status

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Unemployment rates very by race in which minority groups tending to have higher unemployment.
Page 25: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

2010 Census Population by County

Presenter
Presentation Notes
From the US Census Mapping tool at http://2010.census.gov/2010census/popmap/ full release of data will happen May 4th and map will also show Race, Ethnicity, Age/Sex and Household data.
Page 26: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

National Trends – projected population by age

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The demographic shift is 65 and over nationwide. Only marginal changes in 25-64 with little to no change in 18-24. According to the 2010 Census, there were 40.3 million people 65 and older on April 1, 2010, increasing by 5.3 million since the 2000 Census when this population numbered 35.0 million. The percentage of the population 65 and older also increased during the previous decade. In 2010, the older population represented 13.0 percent of the total population, an increase from 12.4 percent in 2000.
Page 27: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Population Projections by Age

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

April 2000

July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025

65 years & over45 to 64 yrs25 to 44 yrs18 to 24 yrs14 to 17 yrs5 to 13 yrsUnder 5 yrs

Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005

Presenter
Presentation Notes
NM has an out-migration during the 25-44 working years but then it reverses to in-migration 45-64.
Page 28: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Employment Projections Annual Average Percent Change 0.97

Page 29: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Projected 958,000 NM Job Recovery

Minimum Employment January 2011 at 795,700

Max Employment Sept. 2008 at 852,900

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000

880,000

Dec-

07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec-

08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec-

09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec-

10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec-

11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec-

17

Employment Recovery

Employment Pre-Recession

Trendline according to 2009-2019 Industry Projections.

Intersect in 2016.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
We may have seen the bottom in jobs losses. When we do, we’ll be talking in terms of job recovery more so than job growth. The new term for this is growth recession. National based estimates are at 2014-2015 with some states lagging such as Michigan being as late as 2019.
Page 30: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/14/a-state-by-state-look-at-long-road-to-jobs-recovery/tab/interactive/
Page 31: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Tigger Slide

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Tigger Economics beats all the others
Page 32: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Occupations

32

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Given the industry data and the current economic situation how do we direct students and others on career choices?
Page 33: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

O*NET / SOC 2010 Code Structure Sample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists

11- Management Occupations 13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations 15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations 17-Architecture and engineering Occupations 19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 21- Community and Social services Occupations 23- Legal Occupations 25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations 27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related 29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs. 31- Healthcare Support Occupations

33- Protective Service Occupations 35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs. 37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 39- Personal Care and Service Occupations 41- Sales and Related Occupations 43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs 45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs. 47- Construction and Extraction Occs. 49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production Occupations 53- Transportation and Material Moving 55- Military Specific Occupations

Organized into Groups:

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Occupations groups as only an economist would organize them. O*net is the coding system that determines how data is collected for occupations. O*net is based on Knowledge, Skills, Abilities and Tasks.
Page 34: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Occupational Category Employment 2009

1,898 6,514 7,612

11,916 13,372 14,132 14,205

22,093 22,500

28,081 28,476 30,674

34,768 36,226 38,534

44,614 51,359 54,581

69,105 76,328

87,210 132,720

Transportation & Material MovingLegal Occupations

Farming, Fishing & ForestryArts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social Services Life, Physical & Social Science

Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services OccupationsHealthcare Support Occupations

Business & Financial OccupationsProduction Occupations

Building & Grounds Cleaning OccsInstallation, Maintenance & Repair

Personal Care & Service OccsHealthcare Practitioners & Technical

Management OccupationsEducation, Training & Library Occs

Construction & Extraction OccsFood Preparation & Serving Related

Sales and Related OccupationsOffice & Administrative Support Occs

Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions Economic Research & Analysis Bureau

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The order of the occupations did not change from 2008 despite the large losses in construction & mining. Education gains didn’t catch them up.
Page 35: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Occupational Group Annual Average Percent Change

2009-2019

0.3-0.7

0.71.3

0.81.4

0.61.2

2.61.4

-0.30.5

0.92.1

1.80.5

0.61.3

0.91.1

0.80.7

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Legal OccupationsFarming,Fishing & Forestery

Arts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social ServicesLife, Physical & Social Science

Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services Occupations

Healthcare Support OccupationsBusiness & Financial Occupations

Production OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning Occs

Installation, Maintenance & RepairPersonal Care & Service Occs

Healthcare Practitioners & TechnicalTransportation & Material Moving

Management OccupationsEducation, Training & Library Occs

Construction & Extraction OccsFood Prep & Serving Related

Sales & Related OccsOffice & Admin Support Occs

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Note declining occupations are Ag and Manuf. Healthcare jobs are in two of the areas of high growth. Construction should turn around and show modest increases.
Page 36: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Occupational Employment by Education Needed

First professional degree

1%

Doctoral degree 2%

Master's degree 1%

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work

experience 4%

Bachelor's degree 13%

Associate degree 3%

Postsecondary vocational training

6%

Work experience in a related occupation

9% Long-term on-the-

job training 6%

Moderate-term on-the-job training

17%

Short-term on-the-job training

38%

Source: 2009-2019 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Short-term on-the-job training occupations are Retail Sales clerk, Cashiers, Food Preparation workers, Waiters & Waitresses, Personal and Home Care Aides, Janitors and Cleaners, Office Clerks etc.
Page 37: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM 10 Occupations with the Highest Employment Occupation

2009 Estimated

Employment

Retail Salespersons 29,520

Cashiers 20,684

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

17,194

Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,162

Construction Laborer 14,853

Waiters and Waitresses 14,496

Personal and Home Care Aides 14,441

General and Operations Managers 14,048

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners

13,873

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 13,692

Nationally - Retail Salespersons and Cashiers make up nearly 6 percent of total US Employment, OES 2011.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
More informative to look at detailed occupations. These are all entry level positions. Source NMDWS Projections unit.
Page 38: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Occupations, Most Annual Openings Rank Occupational

Annual Average Job

Openings

2009 Entry Level Wage

(OES)

1 Retail Salespersons 1,167 $16,746 2 Cashiers 1,120 $16,117 3 Waiters and Waitresses 939 $16,292

4 Personal and Home Care Aides 882 $17,477

5

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 851 $16,252

6 Customer Service Representatives 682 $21,289

7 Registered Nurses 539 $48,863 8 Home Health Aides 524 $17,548

9 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 411 $21,169

10 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers 401 $17,158

11 Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 369 $39,581

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Most of these are entry level positions. Bright spots for wages are 7 and 11. Home Health Aides can be an entry level to healthcare jobs if paired with education.
Page 39: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Highest Growth Jobs in NM Occupations

2009-2019 Annual Percent Change

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 4.2% Home Health Aides 4.0% Actuaries 3.9% Personal and Home Care Aides 3.9% Petroleum Engineers 3.8% Self-Enrichment Education Teachers 3.4% Medical Equipment Repairers 3.4% Pharmacy Technicians 3.0% Physical Therapist Aides 2.8% Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Construction, Health and Safety, and Transportation

2.7%

Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers 2.7% Medical Assistants 2.6%

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Note the number of healthcare jobs on this list. Actuaries are small numbers.
Page 40: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth

Rank Occupational Title

2009 Annual Entry

level Wage (OES)

09-19 Annual Job

Growth

1 Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts $40,681 4.2%

2 Petroleum Engineers $56,763 3.8% 3 Medical Equipment Repairs $24,841 3.1%

4 Compliance Officers (Environmental, EEO Property, Regulatory) $31,356 2.7%

5 Radiation Therapists $46,765 2.6%

6 Physical Therapists $41,922 2.6% 7 Dental Hygienists $27.51hrly 2.6%

8 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians $31,671 2.5%

9 Surgical Technologists $25,607 2.5%

10 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists $28,493 2.3%

11 Computer Software Engineers $52,435 2.2%

12 Training and Development Specialists $35,539 2.2%

13 Detectives and Criminal Investigators $42,114 2.1%

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Note healthcare and technology fields.
Page 41: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Show me the money! 12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico Occupation

Annual Median

Wage (OES )

Family and General Practitioners $167,202

Dentists, General $163,711

Obstetricians and Gynecologists $163,216

Pediatricians, General $161,955

Podiatrists $131,556

Engineering Managers $126,672

Actuaries $123,353

Nuclear Engineers $119,862

Law Teachers, Postsecondary $117,219

Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary $113,687

Air Traffic Controllers $108,423

Pharmacists $104,506

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Family and General Practitioners are Doctors. All these occupations involve specialized training. Any surprises?
Page 42: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico Occupation

2009 Annual Median

Wage (OES)

2009 Hourly Median

Wage (OES)

Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers $16,090 $7.74

Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders $16,222 $7.80

Baggage Porters and Bellhops $16,414 $7.89

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

$16,424 $7.90

Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders

$16,475 $7.92

Costume Attendants $16,495 $7.93

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse

$16,606 $7.98

Designers, All Other $16,617 $7.99

Waiters and Waitresses $16,646 $8.00

Presenter
Presentation Notes
One can argue that tipped occupations shouldn’t be on this list. I would argue that tipped occupations might not involve a 40 hour work week.
Page 43: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2009-2019 Occupation Title

Annual Percent Change

Textile Cutting Machine Setters Optrs -5.6%

Bindery Workers -5.5%

Drilling & Boring Machine Tool Optrs , Metal & Plastic -4.4%

Sewing Machine Operators -4.4%

Milling & Planing Machine Optrs, Metal & Plastic -4.3%

Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors -4.3%

Dental Laboratory Technicians -4.1%

Packaging & Filling Machine Operators -3.4%

Job Printers -3.4%

Semiconductor Processors -3.4%

Jewelers Precious Stone & Metal Workers -3.3%

Order Clerks -3.2%

Postal Service Mail Sorters & Processing Machine Optrs -3.1%

Photographic Processing Machine Optrs -2.9%

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Most of these are declining because manufacturing continues to decline. Even Intel has retooled it’s manufacturing site to use less semiconductor processors
Page 44: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Detailed job profile for nearly 800 occupations

• Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities • SOC and O*NET

• Training Program Completers • Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many

• Typical Education Requirements • Wage Statistics by area and industry • Employment Projections • Employment by Industry • Area’s available:

– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions

Presenter
Presentation Notes
No occupation county data for wages or projections because of confidentiality.
Page 45: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Job Corp Pathways • Welding • Cement Masonry • Plumbing • Electrical Wiring • Facilities

Maintenance • Carpentry • Office Admin. • Health Occupations

Page 46: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Tools for LMI • Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/

• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/

• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/

• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us

• National http://careeronestop.org/

• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/

•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/

Page 47: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Education Pays

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Statistics that support why career exploration is so important to ones current and future financial security. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm
Page 48: The Great Recession - jobs.state.nm.us

Thank You!

Suzan Reagan E-mail [email protected] Phone (505) 383-2731