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The Grand Challenges of IntegratedResearch on Disaster Risk

Presentation to IUGG General Assembly

Professor Gordon McBeanInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

The University of Western Ontario, Canada

Chair, Science CommitteeIntegrated Research on Disaster Risk

President – START International

Presentation to IUGG General AssemblyMelbourne, June 2011

Number of “natural” catastrophes

1000

Floods, stormsurges

Heat wave,Fire, drought

Earthquakes,Volcanoes

Storms

Number of great and devastating“natural” catastrophes

40

The number of disastersand their economiccosts continues to rise.

$240B US

HAZARD: potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon

or human activity that MAY cause the loss of life or injury,

property damage, social and economic disruptionor environmental degradation.”

VULNERABILITY: conditions determined by physical, social,

economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increasethe susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.

Disasters resultwhen there is theintersection of a

hazard and exposedvulnerability

The Grand Challenge:How can science (all sciences)

help reducethe number and impacts

of disasters?Research -•Hazards•Exposure•Vulnerability•Response•Coping•Intersections

A natural disaster –“serious disruption of the

functioning of a community or asociety involving widespread human,material, economic or environmental

losses and impacts, which exceedsthe ability of the affected community

or society to cope using itsown resources.”

of disasters?

International ContextWorld Commission on Environment and

Development• sustainable development in the statement:

“Humanity has the ability to make developmentsustainable - to ensure that it meets the needs ofthe present without compromising the ability offuture generations to meet their own needs”.future generations to meet their own needs”.– future generations – “seeing the future”

• integrated, multi-disciplinary, science-based predictions of the future areessential.

• Disasters exert a powerful influence overeconomic and social development and candiminish and even reverse the economicdevelopment of states.

World Summit on Sustainable Development -

Millennium Development Goals

IV. Protecting and managing the natural resourcebase of economic and social development

• 37. An integrated, multi-hazard, inclusiveapproach to address vulnerability, riskapproach to address vulnerability, riskassessment and disaster management, includingprevention, mitigation, preparedness, responseand recovery, is an essential element of a saferworld in the twenty-first century. Actions arerequired at all levels to:

World Conference on DisasterReduction, Kobe, January 2005 Hyogo

Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities forAction

1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a nationaland a local priority with a strong institutional basisfor implementation.

2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks andenhance early warning.

3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build aculture of safety and resilience at all levels.

4. Reduce the underlying risk factors.5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective

response at all levels.

• Great challenge is ‘a development problem…thewidening gap between advancing science andtechnology and society’s ability to capture and usethem.’

• The increases in costs of disasters are taking place

ICSU Priority Area Assessment onCapacity Building in Science(2005): Executive Summary

• The increases in costs of disasters are taking placein both developed and developing countries, whichsuggest that reducing the risks from hazards is notsimply a matter of economic growth anddevelopment.

• There is a great shortfall in current research on howscience is used to shape social and political decision-making in the context of hazards and disasters.

ICSU Scoping & Planning Groups

• The Scoping Group: Why, despite advances in thenatural and social science of hazards and disasters,do losses continue to increase?

• Planning Group Assessment: Despite all the existingor already planned activities on natural hazards, anor already planned activities on natural hazards, anintegrated research programme on disaster riskreduction, sustained for a decade or more andintegrated across the hazards, disciplines andgeographical regions, is an imperative. The value-added nature of such a programme would rest withthe close coupling of the natural, socio-economic, health and engineering sciences.

Integrated Research onDisaster RiskAddressing the challenge ofnatural and human-inducedenvironmental hazards (IRDR)An integrated approach toresearch on disaster riskresearch on disaster riskthrough: aninternational, multidisciplinary(natural, health, engineeringand social sciences, includingsocio-economic analysis)collaborative researchprogramme. - Sept/2008

www.irdrinternational.org

Objective 1:

Characterization ofhazards, vulnerability and risk

– 1.1: identifying hazards andvulnerabilities leading to risks;vulnerabilities leading to risks;

– 1.2: forecasting hazards andassessing risks; and

– 1.3: dynamic modelling of risk.

Objective 2:

Effective decision making in complexand changing risk contexts– 2.1: Identifying relevant

decision-making systems andtheir interactionstheir interactions

– 2.2: Understanding decisionmaking in the context ofenvironmental hazards; and

– 2.3: Improving the quality ofdecision-making practice.

Objective 3:

Reducing risk and curbing lossesthrough knowledge-based actions

– 3.1: Vulnerability assessments;

– 3.2: Effective approaches to– 3.2: Effective approaches torisk reduction

Cross-Cutting Themes

1. Capacity building2. Case studies and

demonstration projects3. Assessment, data management

and monitoringand monitoring

IPCC Special Reporton Climate Extremes

IRDR – InternationalProgram Office - Beijing


ICSU Regional Office – Asiaand Pacific – Kuala Lumpur

IRDR – InternationalCenter of Excellence- Taipei

Global Change System for Analysis, Researchand Training: START

The objective of START’s research-driven capacity buildingactivities is to engage the scientific communities ofdeveloping regions in collaborative scientific research onGEC, applications and action/policy.

START:

o Promotes research & assessment on regional aspects ofo Promotes research & assessment on regional aspects ofenvironmental stressors, including hazards

o Shares knowledge, expertise and data

o Bridges between science & society to support decisionmaking

o Mobilizes financial, institutional and human resources.

IRDR

WMO - World WeatherResearch Program

Storms, floods

Socio-EconomicResearchActivities

ICSU-WMO-IOC/Unesco -

World Climate ResearchProgram

Climate extremes

Integrated Risk Governance

IUGG•ENHANS•Commission onGeophysical Risk andSustainability

Integrated Risk GovernanceLand-Ocean Interactions in

Coastal Zone

ICSU RegionalPrograms

IRDR


Storms, floods


ICSU-WMO-IOC/UNESCO

- World Climate ResearchProgram

Climate extremes


Capacity Building PartnersIUGG•ENHANS•Commission onGeophysical Risk andSustainability

Land-Ocean Interactions inCoastal Zone

FORIN


Forensic Disaster Investigations(FORIN)

• Probe further into complex andunderlying causes of growingdisaster loss

• Fundamental cause of disasters• Trace out and assign causal

20

• Trace out and assign causalexplanation of losses

• Intervening conditions thatincreased or reduce losses

• Series of case studies• Common template and

methodology

IRDR


Storms, floods




Climate extremes

Integrated Risk Governance

Capacity Building PartnersIUGG•ENHANS•Commission onGeophysical Risk andSustainability Integrated Risk Governance


FORIN

RIA


Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA)

• How actors attempt to make sense ofexperience and information fromvarious sources as a basis fordecision.

• Estimation of the likelihood,• Estimation of the likelihood,magnitude of event & vulnerabilityof physical infrastructure

• Social and behavioural factorsleading to greater or lesser risk

22

Mega-Disasters – > 10,000 fatalities2003-2008

Bangladesh – Bola1970 – 300,000 deaths

Bangladesh – Gorky1991 – 139,000 deaths

Table 1.1: Disasters with more than 10,000 fatalities, January 1975 – June 2008 4

(Highlighting denotes disasters within the five-year period, 2003–2008.) EMDAT; Analysis by ISDR, 2008

1991 – 139,000 deaths

Bangladesh – Sidr2007 – 3,000 deaths

Bangladesh Cyclone PreparednessProgramme

RIAHow were risk actions

FORINWhat contributed to

reductions??

How were risk actionschanged??

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster RiskReduction:

Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

2.2.1 Weather-related mortality risk remains highlyconcentrated in countries with low GDP and weakgovernance

2.2.5 Countries that are falling behind in their developmentachievements have less resilience to disaster lossachievements have less resilience to disaster loss

Percentage change in flood mortality risk, exposureand vulnerability, as modelled, from 1980–2010

(compared to baseline year 1980)

tropical cyclone

Exposure

Mortality RiskVulnerability

East Asia and the Pacific

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster RiskReduction:

Revealing Risk, Redefining Development2.2.1 Weather-related mortality risk remains highly

concentrated in countries with low GDP and weakgovernance

2.2.5 Countries that are falling behind in their developmentachievements have less resilience to disaster loss

FORINMortality risk

reduced; Economicrisk increased ??

How can researchcontribute to the 2013

GAR?

achievements have less resilience to disaster loss

2.2.2 Exposure to floods and tropical cyclones is increasingrapidly, growing fastest in low-income countries

2.2.3 Tropical cyclone and flood mortality risk is decreasingThe major success story has been East Asia and the Pacific, where

despite rapidly increasing exposure, flood mortality risk has morethan halved since 1990.

2.2.4 Tropical cyclone and flood economic loss risk isincreasing

RIAHow can risk actions

be changed??

Mega Disaster in a Resilient SocietyThe Great East Japan (Tohoku Kanto) Earthquake and

Tsunami of 11th March 2011

Earthquake Tsunami Nuclear Power Stations

International Environment and Disaster ManagementGraduate School of Global Environmental Studies

Kyoto University, 25th March 2011

Earthquake Tsunami Nuclear Power Stations

FORINComplex disaster –

technological interface??

RIAThe role of riskinterpretation-

responses??

IRDR


Storms, floods




Climate extremes




FORIN

RIA

Disaster Assessment


Assessment of Integrated Researchon Disaster Risk (AIRDR)

Purpose: to undertake the first systematic and critical globalassessment of published research on disaster risk under theauspices of the IRDR—new knowledge

Approach:

1. Documentation and critical assessment of extant1. Documentation and critical assessment of extantliterature on disaster risk

2. Identification of what is known well and empiricallysupported, what is less well known, and what gaps exist inour research knowledge base, and what opportunitiesexist for new research in the co-production of knowledge

3. integrated research assessment report similar to the“Disasters by Design” concept and similar in style to theIPCC.

AIRDR Goals• Provide a baseline of the current state-of-the-

science in integrated research on disaster risk tomeasure effectiveness of multiple researchprograms

• Use to identify and support longer-term science• Use to identify and support longer-term scienceagenda for the research community and fundingentities

• Provide scientific evidentiary basis in support ofpolicy and practice

IRDR


Storms, floods




Climate extremes


Coastal Zone


Coastal Zone

FORIN

RIA

Disaster Assessment

Disaster Loss Data


Disaster Loss Data WG

• Can we improve the existing data quality?

• Can we make the data landscape moretransparent?

• Can we strengthen the data platform• Can we strengthen the data platformefforts?

• Collaborate with IUGG Commission onData and Information, CoDATA and WorldData Centers.

Registration and AbstractSubmission Open

IRDR Legacy

• An enhanced capacity around the world toaddress hazards and make informed

decisions on actions to reduce their impacts.

••

• Societies to shift focus from response-recovery towards prevention-

mitigation, building resilience and reducingrisks, learning from experience and

avoiding past mistakes.

The Grand Challenges ofIntegrated

Research on Disaster Risk

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Thank you

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