the gpalmer forecast
DESCRIPTION
Demand for temporary workers in the United States is expected to increase 20.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the 2010 fourth quarter when compared with the same period in 2009, according to the Palmer Forecast.TRANSCRIPT
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CSP OCTOBER 2010
The Palmer Forecast TM
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If you sometimes feel like this, you are not alone…
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Recessions and Jobs
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Temp Help Vs. Recession
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Temp Help Vs. Non Farm Jobs
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Accuracy of the Palmer forecast
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 20101500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
Temporary Employees in Thousands
ForecastActual
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Recent Non Farm Trends
Robert W. Baird & Co.
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All the growth – Health Care /ED/Govt
Robert W. Baird & Co.
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Temp Vs. Perm Jobs
Robert W. Baird & Co.
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The Future
?
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11?
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What will happen in the future?
Jobs areCreated at2% GDP Growth
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4%
3%
2%
1%
*
* **
* **
*
4Q08
-6%
Need 2% GDP Growth to create temp jobs !
The Growth Zone
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20%
10%
0% *
*
* *
*
**
*
4Q08
-30%
GP Temp Growth Forecast 2011
Uneven Growth
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Now What?
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Segment Growth Projections
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Home Health Care Services
Computer Systems
Colleges, Universities and Professional Schools
Limited-Service Eating Places
Offices of Physician
Local Government
Elementary and Secondary Schools
General Medical
Employment Service
Management, Scientific, Technical Consulting
BLS
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MarginsGross Margins Trend
Company 2006 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 2Q10Adecco SA 17.30% 18.90% 18.10% 19.30% 18.00% 18.20% 18.50% 17.80% 17.80%Manpower Inc. 17.90% 18.80% 18.00% 19.50% 18.10% 20.80% 18.30% 18.30% 17.40%Randstad Holding (1) 19.90% 20.80% 20.50% 20.90% 20.90% 20.70% 20.10% 19.70% 19.0%Kelly Services Inc. 16.30% 17.50% 18.00% 17.70% 17.60% 17.60% 16.80% 16.70% 15.80%Robert Half 42.20% 42.60% 41.70% 42.20% 41.70% 40.70% 35.70% 35.30% 37.70%Spherion 23.30% 23.70% 22.20% 23.10% 21.90% 20.70% 19.50% 20.30% 20.5%MPS Group 27.60% 28.70% 28.60% 29.00% 28.40% 28.60% 26.90% 27.20% N/ATrue Blue 32.10% 31.90% 30.40% 29.80% 29.70% 29.30% 27.90% 29.50% 26.60%AMN Healthcare Services 26.70% 26.00% 26.40% 26.40% 25.70% 25.70% 25.60% 27.00% 27.60%Kforce 34.70% 35.90% 34.10% 35.80% 34.50% 33.50% 31.20% 34.40% 31.90%
Average 25.80% 26.50% 25.80% 26.40% 25.70% 25.60% 24.10% 24.60% 23.8%
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts, Inc. and company reports and GPalmer(1)Randstad completed the acquisition of Vedior in May 2008. Randstad's gross profit margin is on a pro
forma basis.
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Don’t Forget the Workforce !
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Unemployment by Education
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009
Umemployment Rate Less than High School College Graduates
17.1%
9.6%
4.5%
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Workforce by Age
Growth in over 45 yrs
Decline in younger workers
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A Sprint or Marathon?
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Gears of Opportunity
Clients/Competition
/Change
Aging workforc
e
Shifts in the
Economy
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Quick Tips
Raise prices in Jan 2010 – SUI and WC will increase
Stay close to Health Care Reform / ASA/CSP
If you are thinking about selling consider an ESOP
Consider Off Shore Recruiting solutions, i.e. PSG www.psgglobalsolutions.com Brian Cotter(310) 566-7436
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