The golden age of technologyThe golden age of technology

André V. MendesAndré V. Mendes

CTIOCTIO

PBSPBS

Warnings & CaveatsWarnings & Caveats

This presentation reflects my opinionsThis presentation reflects my opinions Things happen whether we like them or notThings happen whether we like them or not Focus on concepts rather than specific Focus on concepts rather than specific

buzzwordsbuzzwords We will go fast, screen is busyWe will go fast, screen is busy Caveat emptor Caveat emptor

A quick baseline…A quick baseline…

Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivityproductivity

We overestimate short term effects of We overestimate short term effects of technological changetechnological change– Web retailWeb retail

We underestimate long terms effects of We underestimate long terms effects of technological changetechnological change– We evolved from yeast!We evolved from yeast!

““Advancing waves of other people’s Advancing waves of other people’s progress sweep over the progress sweep over the

unchanging man and wash him out. unchanging man and wash him out. You need to organize a department You need to organize a department

of systematic change-making!”of systematic change-making!”Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929

What is “Technology”?What is “Technology”?

Technology is whatever did not exist when we Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up:were growing up:– Swords and catapultsSwords and catapults– Gutemberg’s press & Leeuwenhoek’s microscope Gutemberg’s press & Leeuwenhoek’s microscope – Electricity, telephoneElectricity, telephone– Radio & televisionRadio & television– Computers and antibioticsComputers and antibiotics– Internet and robotsInternet and robots

It is constantly accelerating…It is constantly accelerating…

You’re not crazy… Things are getting faster!You’re not crazy… Things are getting faster! For the past few billion yearsFor the past few billion years

– Primitive cells evolved in billions of yearsPrimitive cells evolved in billions of years DNA – digital recording of evolutionDNA – digital recording of evolution

– Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years – Humanoids, millions of yearsHumanoids, millions of years– Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousandsHomo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands

Technology creating species meant a Technology creating species meant a shift away shift away from DNAfrom DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution! (protein synthesis) based evolution!

Pedal to the metal…Pedal to the metal…

With man made technology:With man made technology:– Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands – By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuriesBy 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries– 1919thth century more growth than the previous 18 century more growth than the previous 18– First 20 years of the 20First 20 years of the 20 thth century eclipsed 19 century eclipsed 19thth – WWW is 11 years old!WWW is 11 years old!– 2121stst Century expect 200 centuries of progress! Century expect 200 centuries of progress!

Expectation of linear growthExpectation of linear growth Double exponential growthDouble exponential growth

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Networkbandwidth

Kbps

Mbps

Gbps

Tbps

2010s

• I backbone

• ESCON (fiber) channel

• PC modem• Bus & tag• Wireless LANs

Let’s talk about change!

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

1X

10X

100X

1,000x

10,000x

100,000x

1,000,000X

bandwidthstorageMIPS

Converging accelerations

Hence change in computing paradigms!Hence change in computing paradigms! Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers)Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers)

– CPU and storage absurdly expensiveCPU and storage absurdly expensive– Bandwidth basically inexistentBandwidth basically inexistent

Client ServerClient Server– CPU still costly, storage cheaperCPU still costly, storage cheaper– External bandwidth still basically inexistentExternal bandwidth still basically inexistent

WebWeb eraera– Cheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidthCheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidth

Web Services realmWeb Services realm– Cheap CPU, storage and bandwidthCheap CPU, storage and bandwidth

Virtual reality realmVirtual reality realm– Virtually free CPU, storage and bandwidthVirtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth

Now then… What’s next?Now then… What’s next? We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of

scientific and technological disciplinesscientific and technological disciplines As our knowledge in each individual arena As our knowledge in each individual arena

deepens, we are coming to the realization that deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: levels: – Physical SciencesPhysical Sciences– Life SciencesLife Sciences– Computer SciencesComputer Sciences– AnthropologyAnthropology– Societal StudiesSocietal Studies– EconomicsEconomics

We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the processthe process

Which brings forth…Which brings forth… Incredible scientific progress:Incredible scientific progress:

– We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolutionreturn to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolution Single gene correctionSingle gene correction Telomerase vaccineTelomerase vaccine

– Nano scale implantsNano scale implants Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulationDrug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulation

– Stem cellsStem cells Nervous system & brain tissue regenerationNervous system & brain tissue regeneration

– ““Wet” interfacesWet” interfaces Cochlear implantsCochlear implants Artificial visionArtificial vision

Artificial visionArtificial vision

Artificial visionArtificial vision

At the same time…At the same time…

We continue to embed biological like behavior into We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systemsour computer systems– DNA regeneration, immune systemDNA regeneration, immune system

Self healing OS, virus detectionSelf healing OS, virus detection

– Training & Learned behaviorTraining & Learned behavior Fraud detectionFraud detection Voice recognition, pen recognitionVoice recognition, pen recognition

– Visual memoryVisual memory Pattern recognition, facial id’sPattern recognition, facial id’s

– Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of homeostasis homeostasis

For all practical purposes…For all practical purposes…

Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society:members of society:– My travel agent is ExpediaMy travel agent is Expedia– My research assistance is GoogleMy research assistance is Google– My broker is E-tradeMy broker is E-trade

And stratify into core competencies like humans do.And stratify into core competencies like humans do. They will supplement each others through technologies They will supplement each others through technologies

like Web Services with:like Web Services with:– Pay per service fees (Micro Payments)Pay per service fees (Micro Payments)– Industry specific lingo (XML variants)Industry specific lingo (XML variants)– Yellow pages (UDDI)Yellow pages (UDDI)

And we are becoming…And we are becoming… Willing participants in their virtual realmWilling participants in their virtual realm

– Through increasingly sophisticated AvatarsThrough increasingly sophisticated Avatars– Constantly researching on our behalfConstantly researching on our behalf

Is there a fare sale to Lisbon?Is there a fare sale to Lisbon? Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay?Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay? Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery? Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery? Which VOIP provider has the best rates?Which VOIP provider has the best rates? Any new FCC pronouncements on DTVAny new FCC pronouncements on DTV

By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment!will be in a virtual environment!

Over the next few years…Over the next few years…

A substantial number of fundamental technologies will A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into “full productivity”move beyond the hype and squarely into “full productivity”

Technology will move further away from a “mushroom” Technology will move further away from a “mushroom” type of influence and into a “yeast” like effect whose type of influence and into a “yeast” like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society.impact will be profound in every section of society.– From medicine to entertainmentFrom medicine to entertainment– From manufacturing to salesFrom manufacturing to sales– From education to militaryFrom education to military

Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue

to disappear into the background!to disappear into the background!

Technology will show in..Technology will show in.. Ever increasing percentage of GDPEver increasing percentage of GDP Productivity enablementProductivity enablement

– Economic growth, low inflationEconomic growth, low inflation Fully informed manufacturing cyclesFully informed manufacturing cycles

– Supply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRMSupply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRM Aggregation of dataAggregation of data

– Company, area, region, nationalCompany, area, region, national– Enables economic stimulus, pullbackEnables economic stimulus, pullback

Shortens and shallows recessionary periodsShortens and shallows recessionary periods

Quarterly GDP Growth

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Year and Quarter

% growth from previous quarter

Quarterly GDP Growth

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Year and Quarter

% growth from previous quarter

Interestingly enough…Interestingly enough…

Unemployment and underemployment will Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly risecontinue to very slowly rise

Outsourcing and tipping pointsOutsourcing and tipping points– Remove bandwidth obstaclesRemove bandwidth obstacles– Generate enough demand (90’s bubble)Generate enough demand (90’s bubble)– Global economyGlobal economy

Effectively, outsourcing is a web service!Effectively, outsourcing is a web service! Bidirectional with an outward bias!Bidirectional with an outward bias!

Today, SCM is an imperative! Today, SCM is an imperative!

Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factoryautomated JIT factory– Tires come straight from loading dock to lineTires come straight from loading dock to line

Chevrolet slashes time to marketChevrolet slashes time to market– New model variant every 22 days!!!!New model variant every 22 days!!!!

WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005usage by major suppliers by 2005

Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran

““I do not believe that you can do today’s job I do not believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrowbusiness tomorrow”” Nelson JacksonNelson Jackson

What must PTV do….What must PTV do….

Optimize the entire PTV supply chainOptimize the entire PTV supply chain– From producers to aggregators/distributorsFrom producers to aggregators/distributors– From distributors to member stationsFrom distributors to member stations– From member stations to end usersFrom member stations to end users

Optimize content and its granularityOptimize content and its granularity Standardize metadataStandardize metadata Ingest onceIngest once Eliminate codec cyclesEliminate codec cycles Optimize distributionOptimize distribution Modularize each step maximizing ability to changeModularize each step maximizing ability to change Eliminate redundant processesEliminate redundant processes Focus on core competencies and local impactFocus on core competencies and local impact

Public Television’s Content Supply Chain

WGBH/WNET

M1

P1

M2

P2

NETA/APT

M1

P1

M2

P2

Other Producers

M1

P1

M2

P2

Orion/Broadview

M1

Hosted scheduling &underwriting

M2 M2

M1

P1

M2

P2M1

Traffic and underwriting

Local production

P1

P2 P1

P2 P1

P2

Server & Archive

Hardware, software, audio and video

monitoring

P1

P2 P1

P2 P1

P2 P1

P2

Edge server,automation,branding &

ATSC encoding

Manufacturing Distribution Retail Consumer

Monitoring & resolutionMonitoring & resolution

CableHead end

DBS LTL

Transmitter

Internet

Questions?Questions?