Carpe Technology!

André V. MendesChief Technology Integration Officer

PBS Technology, Distribution & Operations

Warnings & Caveats

• This presentation reflects my opinions• Things happen whether we like them or not• Content

– Focus on concepts rather than buzzwords– Relationships are not always apparent

• We will go fast, screen is busy• Caveat emptor

A couple of questions…and answers!• What is technology?

– Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up!

• What is bandwidth?– Bandwidth is the capacity of a pathway

to simultaneously carry a certain measure of information• Straw vs. hose vs. fire hydrant vs. water main• Dirt path vs. one lane road vs. 2-lane highway

vs. 4-lane super highway

A great thinker once said…

“Nothing stays the same, and, if you don’t want to grow, you will soon be passed by those who do! If we don’t keep the future alive with realistic planning, then the alternative looks awfully grim”

Herodotus, 424 BC

From the beginning of time…• We have evidence of a constant acceleration in

the appearance and evolution of complex systems.

• First in the biological realm:– Primitive cells evolved in billions of years

• DNA – digital recording of evolution

– Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years

– Humanoids, millions of years– Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands

• Establishing a clear pattern of exponential growth

• Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

Continuing at vertiginous speed…• With man made technology:

– Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands – By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries– 19th century more growth than the previous 18– First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19th – WWW is 10 years old!– 21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress!

• Expectation of linear growth• Double exponential growth

It is only going to get faster…• Substantially faster!

• Some examples from 1993:– Took Intel 3 years from a 25 to a 50 MHz chip– We could pack 150 calls in one fiber strand– 10 Megabyte drive cost $250

• Today and in 2005– 25 MHz every 15 days, by 2005 every day– 180 Million calls and by 2005 720 Million– $250 = 300 Gigabytes by 2005 1.5 Terabytes

• And completely ubiquitous!!

A few examples…

• RFIDS– Tiny chips with RF transmission capability

• Tracking, loss prevention, JIT inventory at shelves• Few cents, Gillette bought 500 Million

• Wireless equipped microprocessors– Internet access from everywhere for

everything• Wi-FI, Mesh Networking

– Cometa Networks (20K) IBM, Intel, AT&T– 802.11n

Yet… despite all this progress

• Distinct patterns of growth, behavior, reaction, and counter reaction continue to emerge.

• They have been repeated throughout the ages, starting with the lowest of life forms and continuing today with the most complex technological advances

• Let’s compare:1 – The common cold2 – The common PC Virus

The common cold

• Initial exposure to pathogenic vector• Marshalling of host resources• Furious viral DNA replication• Immune system detection• Antibody production• Immune system reaction• Infection is defeated (most times)• Mutation occurs• Cycle begins anew

The common computer virus

• Initial exposure to viral code (diskette, e-mail?)

• Marshalling of host resources• Furious offending code replication• Detected by System Administrator• Upgrade Virus software• Virus clean-up • Virus is eradicated (most times)• Viral code is modified• Cycle begins anew

Why such similarities?

Initial idea

Hysteria

Enthusiasm

Reality

Performance

Maturation

Disillusionment

Adaptation

All technological evolution processes share similar characteristics!

It happens with everything…

• From..– Bacterial and viral infections– Antibiotics– Internet– Relationships, employees & employers

• Presents opportunities & dangers– Buying into the hype, pyramid scheme– Ignoring or overreacting to the dip– Ignoring the maturity phase

Why does it happen with technology?

We anoint and believe “experts”!

• "Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies.... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst.“

• Henry Blodget, Leading Internet Analyst, Oppenheimer Funds 3/5/2000

• March 10th, 2000 Nasdaq at 5,048

We overestimate the short term…

• We overestimate the impact of new technologies over a 2 year time span– Web retail expectations– Broadband penetration– WAP/Wireless adoption

• Because…– Ignore implementation details – Sellers need to sell!– Buyers need to buy!– “Dopeler effect”

We underestimate long term…

• We tend to substantially underestimate the impact of technology changes over long haul (10+ years)– Personal computer, Internet– Biotechnology, Nanotechnology– Pervasive computing and bandwidth

• Because…– We look at progress on a linear scale– We evolved from yeast (not that smart)

We forget that If it can happen… It will!

• Is it physically possible ?• Does it fulfill a basic human need/want?• Is there money to be made from it?• It will happen….

“It will take over 100 years before we decode the entire human genome” Bottstein, MIT 1975

“It will take us another 3 or 4 decades before we finish the whole thing” Ridley, CIT & MIT 1992

“Done” J. CraigVenter, Celera Genomics & Francis Collins, Human Genome Project June 2000

Now then… What’s next?

• We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines

• As knowledge in each area deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: – From physical sciences to life sciences– From computer sciences to anthropology– From political studies to economics

• We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process

The Confluence of Disciplines

The other confluence..• Computer systems will continue to evolve

into complex, organism and societal like, systems– Redundant physiological pathways– Self healing operating systems (DNA)– Real time complex pattern recognition

• Voice, images, faces, usage patterns – Immune system like responses

• Security, fraud detection, self education– Displaying behaviors like:

• Inheritance and evolution, • Real time reactions to maintain

homeostasis or increase functionality– And eventually….think!

How soon?

• 2005 Blue Gene (1 billion megaflops)– 1/20th capacity of human brain

• 100B neurons X 1000 connections X 200 calcs/sec

• 2010 - Supercomputer = Human brain• 2020 - $1000 PC = Human brain• 2050 - $1000 = Brain power of the entire

population

Ray Kurzweil – “The law of accelerating returns”

As terrifying as that can be…

• Was Bill Joy right ?– Kurzweil’s prediction ($1,000 by 2020)– 30 – 50% chance of extinction

• Probably not!• “The paradox of the visionary”

– Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor, 2001

“The more accurate a vision is and the more it destabilizes the present, the less likely it is to come true”

Meanwhile…humans not sitting still• Mankind will continue to achieve mastery and

control of its own evolutionary mechanisms– Return to DNA based evolution

• Through:– Genetic correction/optimization– Smart drugs(cortical speed, improved

memory) – Nanotechnology implantation– “Wet” interfaces

• Mankind will assimilate functionality that we associate with sophisticated computer systems– Functionality add-ons

• Processing, storage, knowledge• Backup and restore

Some of it happening today..

• Through external attachments– PDA’s, Cell phones

• Cochlear implants– Inner ear electronic implants– Electrical connections to nervous system

• Temporary silicon retinal implants• Mouse controlled by brain implanted

electrodes.• Intelligent prosthetics.• And even artificial vision for the blind.• Will we live to see it?

Artificial vision

Artificial vision

Will it happen ?

• Is it physically possible ?• Does it fulfill a basic human need/want?• Is there money to be made from it?• It will happen…. faster & faster

• “The human race will rapidly evolve in the near future. It may not be in accord with democratic and egalitarian principles, but then again Darwinian evolution has never been politically correct” Stephen Hawking Ph.D.

Wow! Pretty interesting but…

• How does this affect Public Broadcasting?• What can we do to assure that we continue

to fulfill our mission?• How can we assure relevancy and survival?

• “I do not believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow” Nelson Jackson

A trip back to April, 2000…

• Old Economy– Over 6,000 planes– 300,000+

employees– Worldwide impact– Brand recognition– Billions in hard

assets

• Market valuation ?– $14 billion

• New E-conomy– 0 airplanes– 200+ employees – Brand recognition– Regional impact– 10 Million in Servers

(9 M in last 3 months)

• Market valuation ?– $14.4 billion

Where do they stand today?

• Today:– USAirways just

emerged from Ch. 11

– UAL looks ready to enter receivership

– AMR is staving it off?

– CO also struggling

– Market valuation ?• $1.1 billion

• New E-conomy– 0 airplanes

• Market valuation ?– $380 million

Meanwhile…

• Only two major airlines made money in 2002!

• Southwest Airlines – $11.3 billion market cap– $241 million profit in 2002

• JetBlue Airlines– $1.8 billion market cap– $51 million profit in 2002

Why is Southwest so successful?

• Operational efficiencies– Southwest uses 1 type of airplane (737)

• Lower training, maintenance, parts depot costs• Faster equipment replacements

– Turn around times• Flight attendants clean the airplane

– Operational simplicity• Boarding is performed by flight attendants• Seat anywhere• 1 class of service• Frequent flyer program simplicity

• Total employee participation and buy-in• Emphasis on end-to-end supply chain

management

Today, SCM is an imperative!

• Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory– Tires come straight from loading dock to line

• Chrysler slashed time to market– Concept to showroom from 7 years to 3

• All development is virtual

– Goal is 18 months by 2005

• Most supplies for Iraq war were electronically tagged from factory to battlefield

We must assume that… • Processing, storage and distribution

technology will continue to exhibit massive improvement in price performance ratios

• Because of fast system turnover, capital requirements will be massive and project amortizable lifespan will be shorter

• Modularity and interoperability will be essential and will require standardization

• Limiting factors will be capital, human resources, technical skills and training

So it follows that we must…

• Follow sound investment principles– Leverage economies of scale– Optimize the PB supply chain– Follow established best practices– Learn from industries whose deployment

of technology is ahead of PB– Stop thinking Station, start thinking

system– Avoid the slow boiling frog scenario

Content is king…..

• But as the amount of content grows, the latency shrinks and the number and complexity of delivery channels increases rapidly, the creation, deployment, maintenance and effective use of a streamlined distribution system can spell the difference between a valuable cultural contribution and relegation to niche player status.– 40,000 books in Alexandria, Egypt– Gutenberg’s press role in the renaissance– Mendel’s “Experiments with plant hybrids”

Questions?NOW !

At any other time you can reach me by

Phone: (703) 739-7521 ore-mail :amendes@pbs.org