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The global viewAspen Institute Clean Energy Forum
Ethan Zindler
Head of Americas
Twitter: @EthanAll
12 August 2017
1 August 12, 2017
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Copyright and disclaimer
2 August 12, 2017
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn
$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and
spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large
hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20GW
88GW
160GW
Forecast
2016
Investment
down 17%
2016
Installs up
9%
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installation
3 August 12, 2017
Total worldwide clean energy investment
4 August 12, 2017
Wind
Utility-scale PV
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$/MWh
Note: Levelized, time-of-day adjusted contract price shown in real 2015 USD. 2016 PV PPA price based on preliminary data and subject to review.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (LBNL), Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Average US renewable energyPPA prices
2008–16
PV down
83%
2008–16
Wind
down 71%
5 August 12, 2017
Recent tenders for clean energy delivery contracts
6 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global auctioned and tendered renewables capacity
1.3 2.0 4.3 6.3
23.8
2.43.8 2.2 3.66.4 1.7
4.4
8.1
1.12.12.2
5.92.7 2.5
9.26.3
11.3
32.8
3.50.2 0.9 1.3 2.4
3.9
7.710.0
15.918.6
21.1
30.3
36.6
47.9
80.884.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q2017
Other
Wind
PV
Cumulative
Gigawatts
Notes: excludes Chile where contracts are awarded for generation. The country has
procured around 46 TWh of electricity generated by renewablers since 2006.
7 August 12, 2017
Source: EIA, IEA
Generation by source, United States Generation by source, all OECD nations
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Coal’s decline
TWh/yr TWh/yr
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Oil
8 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Variable renewable proportion of power generation, 2006-16
14%30%
California
5%
39%
Iowa
20%
47%
Idaho
2%
30%
South Dakota
2%
30%
Kansas
3%
26%
Oklahoma
7%23%
Minnesota
6% 8%
New York
2%13%
Texas0%
20%
50%+
Key: RE penetration
9 August 12, 2017
Image: Bloomberg
Secretary Perry’s “60-day” review
Politically-driven policies…
driven primarily by a hostility to
coal… threaten the reliability and
stability of the greatest electric
grid in the world.
Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy
April 25, 2017
BNEF Future of Energy Summit
10 August 12, 2017
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Positive
Unknown
Negative
Plan toretire
‘Negative’ includes plants currently slated to receive subsidies in NY and IL. Assumes displacement from CCGT of heat rate 7MMBtu/MWh
Reactors in the red: U.S. nuclear’s woes
Bcfd (avoided) MtCO2e (avoided)
Losing
$2.9bn/year
24.8GW
6.4GW
20.5GW
99.2GW
47.5GW
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Davis Besse Perry
Millstone Three Mile Island
Actively seeking state subsidies (in OH, CT, PA)
$/MWh earned/lost
(real 2015 USD)
Revenue negative
11 August 12, 2017
Electric vehicles
12 August 12, 2017
Perceptions of EVs are changing
13 August 12, 2017
Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast
BNEF core assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
BNEFobservedvalues
19%learning rate
BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index2010-16.
2030 average lithium-ionbattery price:$73/kWh
2025 average lithium-ion battery price:$109/kWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Notes: Lithium-ion battery demand is based on EV demand only. Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both
cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Prices are nominal.
14 August 12, 2017
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Small vans
Runabouts
Hatchbacks
Sedans
Sports cars
SUVs/Trucks
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, Images various.
Notes: Not exhaustive.
(*) Range is estimate
BEV model availability, 2008-20
Venturi FetishTesla Roadster
20082009
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW mini e
Smith Edison
2010Ford Transit
M-B E-CellHyundai
BlueOn
Nissan Leaf
Kia Ray
2011
Ford Focus
Renault KangooM-B Vito
BYD e6
Renault Fluence
2012Renault Twizy
Smart
ForTwo
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
Tesla Model S
Toyota
RAV4
Honda Fit
CODA EV
2013
Peugeot Partner
Exagon Furtive
M-B SLS eDrive
BMW i3
Chevy Spark
Mahindra e2o
VW
e-Up
2014
VW e-Golf
Nissan NV200
M-B B-Class
JAC iEV4
2015Kandi Panda Bollore
Bluesummer
Mullen 700e
ChangAn
Eado
2016
Chevy Bolt
Audi R8 E-tron
BYD T3
Mahindra eVerito
2017
Qianto Q50
Aston Martin
RapidE
Tesla Model 3
Hyundai Ioniq
2018
Land Rover
Defender
Honda Clarity
2019
Porsche E-sport
M-B EQ
Jaguar
I-Pace
Mitsubishi eX
2020
Tesla Roadster
GLM G4
VW e-Bulli
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand
Audi E-tron
Sportback
VW I.D.
VW I.D. CROZZ
NIO ES8*
Tesla Roadster*
ChangAn EM80
VW I.D. BUZZ
Renault DeZir
Trumpchi
GS4
SAIC E-Lavida
Tata
IRIS
VW I.D.*
Audi E-tron
Quattro
Tesla
Model Y*
BYD e5
Volvo 40.2*
Tesla
pickup*
Nissan Leaf 2*
Lucid Air
+ miles range per
charge
Faraday
FF91
NIO EVE
LeEco LeSEE
Chehejia
SUV*
BMW i5
Seat Mii*
Tesla
Model XVW
Budd-e
NIO EP9
15 August 12, 2017
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Annual global light duty vehicle sales
1%
3%
8%
24%
43%
54%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE sales
EV sales
million cars per year
Executive Summary
16 August 12, 2017
EV forecasts compared
17 August 12, 2017
The 2040 view
BNEF’s New Energy Outlook (NEO)
18 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global cumulative installed capacity: 2016 Global cumulative installed capacity: 2040
Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity
Coal30%
Gas24%
Oil6%
Nuclear5%
Hydro17%
Onshore wind7%
Utility-scale PV
3%
Small-scale PV
2%
6,719GW
Coal13%
Gas14%
Nuclear3%
Hydro12%Onshore
wind14%
Utility-scale PV
22%
Small-scale PV
10%
13,919GW
Flexible
19 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global light duty vehicle sales EV electricity demand
Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid
2%8%
22%
41%
53%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
millions
ICEs
TWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
US China Japan Germany
UK France RoE RoW
EVs
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: ICE is internal combustion engine,
EV is electric vehicle
20 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Germany Germany
EVs arrest slide in grid demand
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Small-scale PV
Gross demand
Net demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
Small-scale PVNet
demand
Gross demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
EVs
21 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global power sector CO2 emissions
Emissions peak in 2026…
NEO2017
NDC trajectory
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(MtCO2)
22 August 12, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global power sector CO2 emissions Total investment in zero-carbon capacity
…but 2 degree is an additional $5.3 trillion
NEO2017
NEO2017 - 2deg trajectory
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(MtCO2)
$1.3
$1.7 $1.7
$2.0 $2.1
$2.3
$3.0 $3.0 $3.2
$2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2017-202021-252026-302031-352036-40
($ trillion - 2016 real)
NEO2017
2degrees
Coverage.
Renewable Energy
Power & Utilities
Gas
Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations
Energy Smart Technologies
Storage
Electric Vehicles
Mobility and Autonomous Driving
Frontier Power
Emerging Technologies
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about.bnef.com
@BloombergNEF
Ethan Zindler