The global EV market: where to from here?

Colin McKerracher – Head of

Advanced Transport

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

@colinmckerrache

July 10, 2017

1 July 10, 2017

Analysis to help you understand the future of energy

Solar Wind Power and

Utilities

Electric

Vehicles

Energy Smart

Technologies

Gas Carbon

Markets &

Climate

Frontier

Power

Mobility and

Autonomous

Driving

Emerging

Technologies

Storage

Europe, Middle East

& AfricaAsia PacificAmericas

2 July 10, 2017

YoY

growth

Global EV sales by region 2011-2017e, thousand units

Note: Includes highway-capable PHEV and BEV passenger vehicles only; RoW is “Rest of World”

36114

283

435

3066

96

182

209

283

5696

116

115

158

218

2729

32

23

21

46

122

206

288

448

695

1,018

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand units

China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW

+69% +40% +56% +55% +47%

We expect passenger EV

sales to be just over 1m in

2017

3 July 10, 2017

Bloomberg New Energy Finance,

Marklines

Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales

4 July 10, 2017

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Small vans

Runabouts

Hatchbacks

Sedans

Sports cars

SUVs/Trucks

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is speculated.

BEV model availability, 2008-20

Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster

20082009

Mitsubishi i-MiEV

BMW mini e

Smith Edison

2010Ford Transit

M-B E-CellHyundai

BlueOn

Nissan Leaf

Kia Ray

2011

Ford Focus

Renault KangooM-B Vito

BYD e6

Renault Fluence

2012Renault Twizy

Smart

ForTwo

Fiat 500e

Renault Zoe ZE

Tesla Model S

Toyota

RAV4

Honda Fit

CODA EV

2013Peugeot Partner

Exagon Furtive

M-B SLS eDrive

BMW i3

Chevy Spark

Mahindra e2o

VW

e-Up

2014

VW e-Golf

Nissan NV200

M-B B-Class

JAC iEV4

2015Kandi Panda Bollore

Bluesummer

Mullen 700e

ChangAn

Eado

2016

Chevy Bolt

Audi R8 E-tron

BYD T3

Mahindra eVerito

2017

Qianto Q50

Aston Martin

RapidE

Tesla Model 3

Hyundai Ioniq

2018

Land Rover

Defender

Honda Clarity

2019

Porsche E-sport

M-B EQ

Jaguar

I-Pace

Mitsubishi eX

2020

Tesla Roadster

GLM G4

VW e-Bulli

BAIC EU260

Geely Emgrand

NIO ES9

Audi E-tron

Sportback

VW I.D.

VW I.D. CROZZ

NIO ES8*

Tesla Roadster*

ChangAn EM80

VW I.D. BUZZ

Renault DeZir

Trumpchi

GS4

SAIC E-Lavida

Tata

IRIS

VW I.D.*

Audi E-tron

Quattro

Tesla

Model Y*

BYD e5

Volvo 40.2*

Tesla

pickup*

Nissan Leaf 2*

Lucid Air

+

Faraday

FF91

NIO EVELeEco LeSEE

Chehejia

SUV*

BMW i5

Seat Mii*

Tesla

Model XVW

Budd-e

5 July 10, 2017

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

L/100 km

US

EU

China

Achieved fuel consumption Future standard

EU: 4.1

US: 4.2China: 4.9

Source: EPA, NHTSA, EU, ICCT Note: The fuel economy targets have been normalised to the CAFE testing procedure.

US targets are for passenger cars only.

Fuel economy regulations for US, China and Europe

6 July 10, 2017

Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

China’s vehicle sales according to the recent 2025 plan

19.3 22.0 23.4 24.3

27.5 28 28

0.5 2

7

19.3

22.023.5

24.6

28.030

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025e

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV)

Millions ofvehicles sold

7 July 10, 2017

Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average

for the year. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results, 2010-2016 ($ per kWh)

1000

800

642599

540

350273

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-20% -20% -7% -10% -35% -22%

8 July 10, 2017

Short term EV sales forecast

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Europe

U.S.

China

Rest oftheWorld

EV % of new car sales

9 July 10, 2017

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Long term EV sales forecast to 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Rest ofEuropeFrance

UK

Germany

Japan

Rest ofWorldChina

US

million cars per year

10 July 10, 2017

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Long term EV sales forecast to 2040

1%

3%

8%

24%

43%

54%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICEsales,total

EVsales,total

EV %of newsales

million cars per year

11 July 10, 2017

Main factors that could derail global EV sales growth

12 July 10, 2017

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

● Typically two-seater

● Top speed: 60km/h

● Cost: $3,000-7,000

● Unsubsidized, unregulated and growing very

rapidly

● Template for emerging economies?

Source: Times of India, Shandong Motor Vehicle Industrial Bureau, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Mitsubishi

For EV energy market impacts: think small, not big

CHINA’S LOW SPEED EV MARKET

SHANDONG PROVINCE EXAMPLE

13 July 10, 2017

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