the global future april 2012
DESCRIPTION
macro view of where the world is - and scenarios for what might happenTRANSCRIPT
Context
Suspend belief – forget obstacles for todayWorld, national, local viewsFuture discussion and vision Framework Trends Emerging markets The “Next Big Thing”
“Where there is no vision, the people perish”
Proverbs 29:18
Food for thought….ancient to present day
“Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.”--Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute
“Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a vast organic system…The earth [is] not only becoming covered by myriads of grains of thought, but becoming enclosed in a single thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925
“There is nothing permanent except change.” – --Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)
The Dimensional Progress Model
0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes – stay away!1st dimension – trade along natural routes – river valleys, spice routes2nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles 3rd dimension – air travel, air cargo4th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the world starting with the telegraph & telephoneDecreasing time between each dimensionIs there a 5th dimension? Source: Brave New World – William Knoke (recommended reading!)
A look in the rear-view mirror….
Where were you: December 31, 1999 September 11, 2001
What’s happened since then?Would you go back if you could?What has disappeared in your lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex)What has appeared that you can’t do without?
Scenarios – next 30 years:
Upward growth spiral: despite terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time). Life better for most.Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing post WWII run. Did the Boomers ruin it for everyone?) Worldwide recession/depression: World goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s) Almost got thereDoomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (Could a peak solar storm take us all back to the stone age?)
The World at a crossroad
The US/world at war with terrorismDeficit and austerity controls impactWorldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)Nagging unemployment – productivity/jobsThe Euro on the edge – end of entitlement?What about China?US housing major overhangUS the one super-power, but can’t do allGlobal have’s and have-not’s – 99%/1%Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns
Intertwined worldwide issues
EnergyFood/waterHealth/diseaseGlobal warmingPollutionLanguagesTrade blocksIntellectual property
Terrorism/securityEducationPopulation growthAging populationsReligionPoliticalStandardsParadoxes abound
Over-arching trends
Shrinking world (globalization/communications)Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras)Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overloadEnglish gaining as worldwide languagePower shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governmentsContradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted
The Information Age:Human Capital/Intellectual Property
Few physical resources needed – clean, high paying jobsSmall groups can build global productsSmall groups can destroy worldwide (virus)Bits versus Atoms EFT versus cement blocks FaceBook versus the Post Office
Virtuous upward spirals when it all works
Business trends
Increased productivity & offshore outsourcingMass customization and localizationMerger of the titans, buy versus build (United/Continental )Innovation in small companies (hard!)Intense drive to streamline and retool operations - little complacencyRapid product obsolescenceEconomies of scale are a curse and blessingGlobal companies bigger than countries
Technology trends
Digital convergence – data, voice, videoInternet/WWW ½ of worldMoore’s law marches on – faster, better, cheaper – chips, storage, & moreWireless – all shapes and flavors Open source software movementSecurity an increasingly important trend
Internet trends
Great for publishing documents to peopleE-Bay, Google, Amazon, Facebook, TwitterNo end in sight for global adoptionWireless access – mobile informationMicrobursts of information - socialXML (eXtensible Markup Language) Still fragile, frustrating and immature – groaning under the weight of success
Emerging technology today
Smartphones and tablets – wow!Google glasses – heads up
The Next Big Thing (NBT)
Alters the course of mankind – significant impactDifficult to predict and understand at the onset – many times fits and starts before taking offGenerational deployment & incremental improvementEarly civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbersAdvancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rightsRecent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computingCollaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace
Nano-technology – NBT?
Really, really smallSimple - eat escaped oil in oceanComplex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a living beingSensors – watch for individual cancer cellsSelf replication – clone more of the samePhysics: Silicon stronger than steel at the molecular level
The Hydrogen Economy–NBT?
Alternative to imported oilLimitless supplyIdeal for fuel cellsCombustion by-product is waterManufactured by extra electricity passing through waterMassive infrastructure change requiredFixed buildings versus cars!
Biotechnology – NBT?
Non-human Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice,
drought resistant cotton Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets Potential to solve many of the world’s problems Fraught with regulation and protest
Human Genome mapping Cloning and stem cell research debates Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation? “All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen
Elizabeth
NBT Discussion
Additional candidates? Mind to network link – brain based
Google Unmanned space exploration Ubiquitous wireless computing
Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?Timeframe for implementation?Impact on society?Should there be a NBT X prize?
Parting Thoughts
What does all this mean to you?What actions will you take?
Ignore Invest Embrace
How do you manage the risks?What about your great-grandkids?
