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TRANSCRIPT
Tinker, 2012
Dr. Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology
Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin
The Global
Energy Transition
Texas Enterprise Speaker Series January 2012
Tinker, 2012
Energy, Economy and Environment
Energy Supply
Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
Efficiency and Security
Our Mission Today
Tinker, 2012
Global Population and Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Qu
ad
s
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
Population Primary Energy (Q)
http://www.eia.gov/iea/wecbtu.html
Tinker, 2012
OECD Energy Demand
Non-OECD Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
50
0
1980 2005 2030
100
Quadrillion BTUs 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
50
0
1980 2005 2030
100
Other
Europe OECD
United States
Other
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
India
China
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Tinker, 2012
China vs. US
The Economist, 2011, Economic focus: how to get a date: December, p. 61. Sources: BP,CEIC; ITU; Thomson
Reuters; WIPO; World Bank; WFE; World Steel Association; The Economist estimates.
0.2
0.2
Steel consumption
Mobile phone
Exports
Fixed investment
Manufacturing output
Energy consumption
Car sales
Patents granted to residents
Retail sales
Imports
GDP at PPP*
GDP at market rates
Stockmarket cap.
Consumer spending
Defence spending
03 05 13 15 17 19 211999 01 07 09
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.3
2011
14
14
18
23 25
3.3
1.3
1.4
6.6
10
10
10
10
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
99
01
07
09
16
20
25
23
Year in which China: overtook / overtakes the United States
QAe70
Tinker, 2012
Energy and GDP
After: Koonin, 2008
1980-2004
Tinker, 2012
U.S. Economy and Oil Price
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
GD
P G
row
th (
% c
han
ge
on 2
00
0 c
hain
ed
dolla
rs)
Oil Price
Data: EIA and BP Statistical Analysis; US Department of Commerce
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oil
Do
me
sti
c W
ell
hea
d P
ric
e (
$)
70
80
90
$ of the day
$ 2010
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037172&contentId=7068612
1970-1983 Arabian Light
1984-2010 Brent dated
Nixon Clinton W Bush Bush Reagan Carter Ford Obama
2010
Tinker, 2012
Energy, Economy and Environment
Energy Supply
Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
Efficiency and Security
Our Mission Today
Tinker, 2012
0.46
26.33
0.57
8.58
1.17
Petroleum 37.13
Wind 0.51
0.51
Nuclear 8.45
8.45 Solar 0.09
0.01
0.08
Hydro 2.45
2.43
0.01
Coal 22.42
20.54
0.06
1.79
Biomass 3.88
0.42
0.49
0.83
2.03
0.10
Geothermal 0.35
0.31
0.2
0.1
9.18
6.86
19.15
6.96
Energy services
42.15
U. S. Energy Flows
QAd8174
0.67
Natural gas 23.84
4.99
3.20
8.14
6.82
Residential 11.48
Commercial 8.58
Industrial 23.94
Trans- portation
27.86
0.02
3.35
4.61
4.70
12.68
Net electricity Imports
0.11
Electricity generation
39.97
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
(2008 Quads)
Tinker, 2012
0.46
26.33
0.57
8.58
1.17
Petroleum 37.13
Coal 22.42
20.54
0.06
1.79
9.18
6.86
19.15
6.96
Energy services
42.15
U. S. Energy Flows
QAd8174
Residential 11.48
Commercial 8.58
Industrial 23.94
Trans- portation
27.86
0.02
3.35
4.61
4.70
12.68
Net electricity Imports
0.11
Electricity generation
39.97
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
(2008 Quads)
Foundational
Energies
Tinker, 2012
Coal
Powder River Basin,
WY
Tinker, 2012
Coal
Parish Plant, TX
Tinker, 2012
Coal
Parish Plant, TX
Coal Challenges
• Mining Impacts
• CO2
• Air Quality
• Mercury
• Fresh Water
Tinker, 2012
Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2008 2020 2030
Mb
/dResources, Billion Barrels
20
0
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pro
du
cti
on
Co
st,
$ 2
00
8
Produced MENA
Other Conven-tional
Oil
CO
2E
OR
EO
R Arc
tic
Heavy Oil & Bitumen
Oil Shales
Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater
1,0000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Gas toLiquids
Coal to Liquids
NGLs
Unconventional oil
Crude oil - to be developed or found
Crude oil - currently producing fields
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Annual Production
Tinker, 2012
Oil Sands Fort McMurray
Alberta
Tinker, 2012
Oil Shales
North Dakota
Bakken
Tinker, 2012
US Oil Production
From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012
Tinker, 2012
US Oil Production
From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012
Oil Challenges
• Conventional Production Plateau
• Limited Geographic Control
• Environmental Impact
• CO2 Emissions
• Public Perception and Policy
• Pipelines (?)
Tinker, 2012
U.S.
China
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Per
cap
ita o
il c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
bb
l/yr)
Oil Consumption
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, CIA World Factbook, Census Bureaus, Marc Faber Limited, RJ Estimates
From Raymond James and Associates, Inc., August 2, 2010
QAd8173
Tinker, 2012
15
10
5
0
Year
Millio
n v
eh
icle
s
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, RJ Estimates, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
From Raymond James and Associates, Inc., August 2, 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
China
U.S.
20
25
QAd8173
Global Demand US and China Vehicle Sales
Tinker, 2012
Transportation Demand by Region
North America
1980 2005 2030
20
15
10
0
5
20
15
10
0
5
0
20
15
10
5
1980 2005 2030
Europe
1980 2005 2030
Asia Pacific
Marine
Aviation
Rail
Heavy duty
Light duty
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Tinker, 2012
Powertrain Technology in 2030
Millions of vehicles
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
North
America
Europe
OECD
Other
OECD
China India Middle
East
Latin
America
Other
Non-
OECD
Hybrid and advanced vehicles
will gain share in all regions.
By 2030, they will account for
~25% of global new-car sales.
Advanced: full hybrid,
plug-in hybrid, and
electric vehicles
CNG Diesel
Gasoline
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Tinker, 2012
Alternatives
to Petroleum
Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels
Tinker, 2012
Biofuels Carbohydrates to Liquid Hydrocarbons
Perennial Cellulosic
Sorghum
Switch Grass
Miscanthus
Shrub Willow
Tinker, 2012
Biofuels Carbohydrates to Liquid Hydrocarbons
Perennial Cellulosic
Sorghum
Switch Grass
Miscanthus
Shrub Willow
Biofuels Challenges
• Fresh Water Use
• Land Access
• Conversion Facilities
• Drought
• Scale
Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels
III. Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG)
I. Deliverability and access
IV. Electricity (Batteries)
IV. Charging today means coal, natural gas, nuclear…
Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels
III. Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG)
I. Deliverability and access
IV. Electricity (Batteries)
IV. Charging today means coal, natural gas, nuclear…
V. Hydrogen (fuel cells)
V. Just ten years away!
Tinker, 2012
Electricity
Tinker, 2012
by Sector
Thousands of terawatt hours
1980 2005 2030
30
25
20
15
0
10
5
Commercial
Residential
Other industry
Heavy
industry
Transportation
Thousands of terawatt hours
1980 2005 2030
30
25
20
15
0
10
5
by Region
Non-OECD
OECD
Global electricity
usage in 2030
will be about
four times
that of 1980.
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Electricity Demand
Tinker, 2012
Power Generation by Fuel
North America 120
Europe
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
Asia Pacific
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
120 120
Nuclear
Coal
Gas Oil
Renewables
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Tinker, 2012
Cost of U.S. Electricity Generation 2025
Cost per kilowatt hour in 2010 cents
20
15
10
0
5
Generating costs are for new, base-load, power-generation plants that come online in 2025.
No CO2
cost
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/CCS Gas/CCS Solar*
*Wind and solar exclude costs of backup capacity and additional transmission.
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
At $60
per ton
of CO2
Tinker, 2012
Wind 0.51
0.51
Solar 0.09
0.01
0.08
Hydro 2.45
2.43
0.01
Geothermal 0.35
0.31
0.2
0.1
9.18
6.86
19.15
6.96
Energy services
42.15
Electricity
QAd8174
Residential 11.48
Commercial 8.58
Industrial 23.94
Trans- portation
27.86
0.02
3.35
4.61
4.70
12.68
Net electricity Imports
0.11
Electricity generation
39.97
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
(2008 Quads)
Electricity
Alternatives
Tinker, 2012
Hydro Norway
300 MW Nameplate
Tinker, 2012
Hydro Norway
300 MW Nameplate
Hydro Challenges
• Fresh Water Capture
• Land Use & Topography
• Drought
Tinker, 2012
Geothermal Iceland
300 MW Nameplate
Tinker, 2012
Geothermal Iceland
300 MW Nameplate
Geothermal Challenges
• Thermal Conversion
• Geology
Tinker, 2012
Distributed Solar
San Francisco, CA
Tinker, 2012
Industrial Solar
Spain
Olmedilla de Alarcon, Parabolic Troughs
50 MW Nameplate
Andusal, PV
60 MW Nameplate
Solucar, CSP
11 MW Nameplate
Tinker, 2012
Industrial Solar
Spain
Olmedilla de Alarcon, Parabolic Troughs
50 MW Nameplate
Andusal, PV
60 MW Nameplate
Solucar, CSP
11 MW Nameplate
Solar Challenges • Cost
• Manufacturing
• Intermittency
• Energy Storage
• Transmission
• Land Use
Tinker, 2012
Global Power-Generation Capacity
The Reality of Intermittency
Gigawatts
800
600
400
0
200
2005 2030
Nuclear
2005 2030
Wind
2005 2030
Solar
Intermittent wind and sun reduce
output of installed capacity.
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Capacity
utilized
Capacity
not utilized
Tinker, 2012
ERCOT Power Curve
Tinker, 2012
ERCOT Power Curve
Wind Challenges • Transmission
• Intermittency
• Energy Storage
• Siting
• Materials
• Infrastructure
Tinker, 2012
Nuclear 8.45
8.45
9.18
6.86
19.15
6.96
Energy services
42.15
U. S. Energy Flows
QAd8174
0.67
Natural gas 23.84
4.99
3.20
8.14
6.82
Residential 11.48
Commercial 8.58
Industrial 23.94
Trans- portation
27.86
0.02
3.35
4.61
4.70
12.68
Net electricity Imports
0.11
Electricity generation
39.97
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
(2008 Quads)
Emerging
Foundational
Energies
Tinker, 2012
Nuclear Le Hague Waste Recycling
Normandy, France
Tinker, 2012
Nuclear Le Hague Waste Recycling
Normandy, France
Nuclear Challenges
• Natural and Human Disasters
• Front End Cost Permitting and Regulatory
• Waste Protection
• Proliferation
Tinker, 2012 Natural Gas Supply -
Resources and Production
Resources, Trillion Cubic Meters
0
5
10
15
Pro
du
cti
on
Co
st,
$/M
btu
20
08
1000 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
LNG
1000 km pipeline
Transportation cost
Pro
du
ced
Co
nve
ntio
na
l Tight Shale
Co
alB
ed
Me
tha
ne
Sour
Arc
tic DeepWater
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pre-2008 fields
Post-2008 fields
Share from new fields
5
4
3
2
1
0
Annual Production
Tcm
Tinker, 2012
LNG - Conventional Natural Gas
Qatar
North Field
Tinker, 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ma
rke
ted
Pro
du
cti
on
(Tc
f)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pro
ve
d R
es
erv
es
(Tc
f) End-of-Year
U.S. Proved Reserves
Annual
U.S. Production
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves
After Steve Harvey, EIA
Tinker, 2012
U.S. Natural Gas Production
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
An
nu
al N
atu
ral G
as P
rod
uctio
n (
Tcf)
.
Onshore unconventional
Alaska
Offshore
Onshore conventional
After Steve Harvey, EIA
Tinker, 2012
U.S. Natural Gas Production
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
An
nu
al N
atu
ral G
as P
rod
uctio
n (
Tcf)
.
Onshore unconventional
Alaska
Offshore
Onshore conventional
After Steve Harvey, EIA
Tinker, 2012
U.S. Gas Shale Production
QAe63
Boyer, C., Clark, B., Jochen, V., Lewis, R., and Miller, C. K., 2011, Shale gas: a global resource: Oilfield
Review, Autumn, p. 30 [adapted from U.S. DOE and NETL, 2011, “Shale Gas: Applying Technology to solve
America’s Energy Challenges,” Washington, D.C.: http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-
gas/publications/brochures/Shale_Gas_March_2011.pdf (accessed 8-22-11)].
An
nu
al sh
ale
ga
s p
rod
uction
, Tcf
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.5
0 2000 2001 2002
3.0
1.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Eagle Ford Shale
Marcellus Shale
Haynesville-Bossier Shale
Fayetteville Shale
Barnett Shale
Antrim Shale
Woodford Shale
Tinker, 2012
Orange dots are 20 nm in diameter
T.P. Sims #2; 7625’
200 nm
0.2 m
50 µm
Hum
an H
air
After Reed, BEG
Barnett Shale
Nanopores in Organics
Tinker, 2012
Carrizo location – UT Arlington
Barnett drilling location
University of Texas at
Arlington From XTO annual report
Innovation driven by necessity
Tinker, 2012
1 mile
Tinker, 2012
Eagle Ford
Wolfberry
Bone Spring/Avalon
Bakken-Three Forks
Utica Shale
Oil
Monterrey
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Shale Gas Plays
Map: DOE Shale Gas Primer, 2009
Tinker, 2012
Shale Gas Plays
Source: IHS CERA Potential Global Shale Gas Basins
Tinker, 2012
Woodford Shale Frac Depth
Tinker, 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mun
icipal
Man
ufac
turin
g
Mining
Ste
am-e
lectric
Live
stoc
k
Irrigation
Wate
r U
se (
1000's
AF
/yr)
Water Use in Texas
From JP Nicot, BEG
Tinker, 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mun
icipal
Man
ufac
turin
g
Mining
Ste
am-e
lectric
Live
stoc
k
Irrigation
Wate
r U
se (
1000's
AF
/yr)
Water Use in Texas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oil and G
asCoal
Aggregate
s
Other
s
20
08
Wa
ter
Us
e (
Th
ou
sa
nd
AF
)
From JP Nicot, BEG
Tinker, 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mun
icipal
Man
ufac
turin
g
Mining
Ste
am-e
lectric
Live
stoc
k
Irrigation
Wate
r U
se (
1000's
AF
/yr)
Water Use in Texas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oil and G
asCoal
Aggregate
s
Other
s
20
08
Wa
ter
Us
e (
Th
ou
sa
nd
AF
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Drillin
g
Com
plet
ion
EO
R
Wa
ter
Us
e (
10
00
's A
F/y
r)
1990’s vs. 2008
From JP Nicot, BEG
Tinker, 2012
Environmental Traffic (-)
Noise/light (-)
Water (-)
Land Use (-)
NORM (-)
Carbon (+/-)
Energy Security (+)
Fuel Diversity (+)
U.S. Shale Gas Implications
Tinker, 2012
Environmental Traffic (-)
Noise/light (-)
Water (-)
Land Use (-)
NORM (-)
Carbon (+/-)
Energy Security (+)
Fuel Diversity (+)
U.S. Shale Gas Implications
Natural Gas Challenges
• Deliverability
• Access
• CO2 Emissions
• Water
• Micro Quakes
• Educated Regulation
Tinker, 2012
Energy, Economy and Environment
Energy Supply
Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
Efficiency and Security
Our Mission Today
Tinker, 2012
27.39
Rejected energy 57.07 2.29
1.71
4.78
20.90
U. S. Energy Flows
QAd8174
Residential 11.48
Commercial 8.58
Industrial 23.94
Trans- portation
27.86
0.02
3.35
4.61
4.70
12.68
Net electricity Imports
0.11
Electricity generation
39.97
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
(2008 Quads)
Efficiency
Tinker, 2012
Efficiency
Fuel
Lighting
Electronics
Insulation
Energy
efficiency can be
improved across
all consumption
sectors.
Tinker, 2012
Available Access to substantial, national resources
Affordable Electricity: produced Kwh is inexpensive
Facility: inexpensive to build the plant
Volatile: stable fuel price
Reliable Intermittent: source consistent or variable
Safe: potential harm from natural/human causes
Green Dense: small land footprint to collect/produce
Dry: fresh water use or potential risk
Clean: air emissions minimal
Energy Security
Tinker, 2012
Energy Security
2.0 2.5 1.7 2.0 Petroleum
1.3 2.7 1.0 2.0 Biomass
1.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 Coal
1.7 3.0 2.7 3.0 Natural Gas
2.7 2.5 2.3 3.0 Nuclear
2.7 3.0 1.7 2.0 Geothermal
2.3 2.0 2.0 Wind
2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 Hydro
2.3 2.0 1.3 2.0 Solar
Green Reliable Affordable Available
2.3
Tinker, 2012
A Look at the Global Future
Tinker Forecast
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Petroleum Consumption
Coal Consumption
Natural Gas Consumption
Nuclear Electric Power Consumption
Hydroelectric Power Consumption
Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind Consumption
Tinker, 2012
A Look at the Global Future
Tinker Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Glo
ba
l C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
Q)
Tinker, 2012
Tinker Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Glo
ba
l C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
Q)
Tinker, 2012
• The scale of energy demand is difficult to comprehend;
energy supply transitions take many decades.
• Energy security should be the goal of good policy.
• Energy efficiency is underappreciated; individual
behavior matters!
• Natural gas and uranium (nuclear) are premier fuels of
this century.
• Renewables are good regional supplements, but will
remain such until major advances are made in energy
storage.
• Oil and coal are abundant at the right price, and difficult
to replace as transportation and electricity fuels.
• Energy, the economy and the environment are intimately
linked. Energy choices are based largely on cost.
A Few Things About Energy