the future x network - etouches · 1 © 2017 nokia the future x network (and its critical role in...
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© 2017 Nokia1
The Future X Network(and its critical role in new value creation)
Marcus Weldon
President of Bell Labs & CTO of Nokia
2 © Nokia 2017
The Simple Formula
1 1 1 11 11 111+ + = +
3 © Nokia 2017
The revolution
Tech. Revolution Enabling Technology Connectivity
Financial (1600 − 1740) Stocks & Bonds Banking & Stock Market Infrastructure
1st Industrial (1780 − 1840) Steam Engine & Iron Production Rail and Shipping Networks
2nd Industrial (1880 − 1920) Steel & ChemicalsExtended Transportation NetworksElectricity & Telecom Networks
Scientific-Technical (1940 − 1970) Analog & Digital Signal processing Digital Communications Networks
Information (1985 − 2015)The Web, Cloud computing & Mobile devices
Internet & Broadband Access
Automation of Everything (2015 −) Digital interfaces & Data analysis Future X Network
Technological Revolution (def):
Interconnection of new systems and technologies
We arehere
+ capacity to profoundly transform economies & society
4 © Nokia 2017
1.84
2.41
1.771.79
2.82
1.62
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1870-1920 1920-1970 1970-2014
Output per person Output per hour
Source: Robert Gordon, The rise and fall of American growth (adapted by Mark Gordon, Chief Economist, E&Y)
The quest for digital value (1/2)
% C
ha
ng
e P
er
Ye
ar
5 © Nokia 2017
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype, June 2015
The quest for digital value (2/2)
6 © Nokia 2017
The end and the beginning
Past/Present Future
Business
Solutions Technology-driven Human/Business-driven
Driver Consumer (GB) Industry (BW, Latency, SLA)
Innovation SpeedPer decade(new services)
Per day(new apps)
Technology
Architecture Heavily Centralized (100ms, 10M) Massively Distributed (1ms, 1G)
FlexibilityLimited (Provisioned)
Large(Software definable)
SharingStatic and Limited(HW VPNs )
Dynamic and Infinite(SW Slices)
IndustryDynamic
InvestmentSingular(Operator only)
Multiple & Cooperative(Many contributors/new players)
Standards Definitive Iterative
Partnership Limited w/APIs Co-design w/Open specs
We arehere
7 © Nokia 2017
Enterprises& Verticals
Consumers
The new digital era
Digitization, delivery & sharing of:
Digitization, distribution & optimization of:
8 © Nokia 2017
Latency matters …
0.1 1 10 100
10
100
1000
10000
(km)
RTT(ms)
Light propagation
Electric grid control
Autonomous vehicles
vRAN
Haptic VR & tele-operation
Cloud-assisted driving
BW-efficient 360° video
Hi-Res cloud gaming
4K video streaming
VoIP/video conferencing
Web page load
Vestibulo-ocular reflex
IM chat & bots
High-Frequency trading
Sprint start
0.25
1
2
4
8
7
5 20
10 100
10 40
20 90
120
50 1900
100
150
150
50
1000
4000
ICP
cl
ou
dC
ore
cl
ou
dEd
ge
clo
ud
Service latency requirements (in ms)
Max tolerable networking delay
Max application delay for processing
Human response times (for reference)
We arehere
9 © Nokia 2017
Bandwidth matters …
UHD & Unicast388
887
3,360
5,903
GB/User/Mo
20202016 2025
171
272
…
490
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GB/User/Mo
92 GB/user/Month
VR/AR
We arehere
~5x
~60x
10 © Nokia 2017
Latency & bandwidth matter …
Edge CloudCore Cloud
1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us 10us
1kbps
10kbps
100kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Mbps
1Gbps
10GbpsCloud RAN
360° video (hi-res)
Electric grid control
Cloud-assisted driving
Autonomous vehicles
Comms & Chatbots
4k Video streaming
Sensors
Home Sensors
Haptic VR
Remotetraining
360° video (free viewpoint)
Remote control vehiclesHD Video
streaming
360° video (lo-res)
Ban
dw
idth
Latency
Video VR/AR
People & Things
SystemControl
Virtual RAN
360° VR/AR
We arehere
11 © Nokia 2017
Summary: The 100yr, 100x shift
Enabled by: Local real estate, fiber, trust, optimized HW/SW network platforms , programmability, privacy preserving, & secure
Enabled by: Global reach and power; SW platforms for business model disruption, stability, non-privacy preserving & inadequately secure
We arehere
ComputeTech
IPNetworks
Broadband Access
ComputeTech
IPNetworks
Broadband Access
Core Cloud Edge Cloud
100s ms, 10’s Mbps1 day, $1000, 10B
1ms, 1Gbps10 years, $1, 1000B+
Devices Things
12 © Nokia 2017
Consolidation creates local market power
ISP Locations Internet Exchange Point (circles are sized by volume)
Source: Netflix, “How Netflix Works With ISPs Around the Globe to Deliver a Great Viewing Experience”, March 17, 2016
Netflix Open Connect (2011-2016)
2010: Global/centralized distribution only
2011: Open Connect launched
2016: 100% content locally served from ~1000 locations
The shift is underway (but still video centric)
13 © Nokia 2017
NFV
HIGHEST PERFORMANCE
LOWEST COST PER BIT
MOST PERSONALIZED
SDN
Edge Cloud/Access
NFV
Architectural Shift 1: Virtualizing the Network
~40 %CapEx & OpEx
Savings
14 © Nokia 2017
HIGHEST PERFORMANCE
LOWEST COST PER BIT
MOST PERSONALIZED
NFV Edge Cloud/Access
Type 1: Software-define a Service
40 %IP + Optical
CapEx Savings
Type 2: Software-define
a Network Path
Architectural Shift 2: Software-Defining the Network
Type 0: Connecting SW to HW
SDN
15 © Nokia 2017
HIGHEST PERFORMANCE
LOWEST COST PER BIT
MOST PERSONALIZED
Edge CloudNFV
Architectural Shift 3: Distributing the Cloud…in the Network
~40 %CapEx & OpEx
Savings
SDN
16 © Nokia 2017
HIGHEST PERFORMANCE
LOWEST COST PER BIT
MOST PERSONALIZED
SDN
Edge AccessNFV
90 %CapEx
savings by Small Cells
& vRAN
Architectural Shift 4: Distributing the Access Network
2x
2x >10x
10x
5x
17 © Nokia 2017
Perspective on 5G
Source: Bell Labs, adapted from F. Boccardi, T. Marzetta, IEEE Comms. Magazine, 201402
2G-4G:
“People & Video”
Ultra-broadband: “VR/AR”
Ultra-low latency: “System Control”
Forbidden region: “Shannon Limit”
Pre-5G
R1
R2
Ultra-narrowband: “Things”
R3
R4
R5
18 © Nokia 2017
The Future X Network: The Six Essential 5G Technologies
19 © Nokia 2017
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170LoRA
LTE
5G
WiGig
Z-Wave
Zigbee
WiFi
SigFox
MulteFire
NB-IoT
LTE-M
10 bps 100 kbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps 100 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps100 bps 1kbps 10 kbps
Throughput
Ma
x C
ou
plin
g L
oss
(d
B)Long range
Short range
Medium range
Low Medium High
The Future X Network: IoT technologies
20 © Nokia 2017
500 250 125 63 32
Node sizeMORE
SPATIAL REUSE
MORESPECTRUM
WIRELINE CAPACITY
MORE SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY
The Future X Network: Distributing the Cable Access Network
21 © Nokia 2017
The Future X Network: Optimizing cost : performance of Cable
• Centralized DOCSIS 3.1 won’t achieve multi-Gbps scale at low cost
• DOCSIS 3.1 requires OSP upgrades - CAPEX better utilized in DAA
• DAA required for DOCSIS FDX / XG-CABLE
22 © Nokia 2017
The Future X Network: Access Convergence - Architecture
10-40 Gbps 10-40 Gbps
10 Gbps 1-10 Gbps
1 Gbps 100s Mbps
100s Mbps 10s Mbps
Peak BW/User
23 © Nokia 2017
The Future X Network: Access Convergence – BW & Technology
24 © Nokia 2017
Increases complexity/functionality in OSP but:
• Seamless coordination/session continuity between mac layers for multi-access technology use cases
• Future hybrid multi-access CPE with future remote can enable multi-access services
MAC
PHY
5G mmWave
MAC
PHY
DOCSIS FDX
MAC
PHY
PON
MAC
PHY
FTTdp
R-MAC/PHY - Collocated access functions
Reduces complexity/functionality in OSP but:
• Remote Phy ↔ Central Mac handshakes may impact seamless coordination/multi-access session continuity
• Potential for multi-access technology scheduling coordination challenges between Macs
MAC
PHY
5G mmWave
MAC
PHY
DOCSIS FDX
MAC
PHY
PON
MAC
PHY
FTTdpDOCSIS mac at headend/edge cloud
R-PHY - Collocated / distributed access functions
The Future X Network: Access Convergence – BW & Technology
25 © Nokia 2017
The New Architecture
ConvergedEdge Cloud
2 Software defined, end-end
Smart Network Fabric3
Universal Adaptive Core
4Access agnosticconverged core
modular, decomposednetwork functions
Common data layer
Programmable Network OS
5Dynamiccustomerservices
Dynamicnetwork optimization
Management &Orchestration
SDN NFV
Multi-operatorfederation
self-optimizedcoverage & capacity
MassiveScale Access
1
Long fibers
AccessRemote
Shortwaves & wires
Digital Value Platforms
7 ANP, CSP, ICP, Vertical apps
External data sources
Open APIs
Augmented Cognition Systems
6 Machine learningAnalytics
Humans& Machines
Dynamic Data Security
8
• New trust framework
• Ecosystem sharing
• Mass edge monitoring
We arehere
26 © Nokia 2017
The New Value (1): Time (& Trust)
Analog
with Trust
(in Privacy & Security)
Create Time
(by Prediction & Automation)
Digital
Free Wifi
27 © Nokia 2017
The New Value (2): Global-Local Equilibrium
Global ForcesLocal Forces
Optimized Discovery of Digital Content
Massive Brand Power
Generalization
Personal Data Monetization
Economies of Cloud Platform Scale
Optimized Delivery of Digital Content
Trusted Brand Relationship
Personalization
Personal Privacy Protection
Economies of Secure Network Platform
28 © Nokia 2017
Media & entertainment Data & knowledge discovery Comms, commerce, context & Content
Vertical & infra automation
VR/AR Expert assistance Supply-demand matching Critical control platforms
Needs- Massive scale content delivery- Dynamic bandwidth control
Needs- Massive access capacity- Low latency edge processing
Needs- Global network coverage- Immediate response
Needs- Global network coverage- Network-enhanced trust
Needs- Global network coverage- Uplink capacity for sharing
Needs- Global network coverage- Immediate response
Needs- Latency/reliability constraints- Control systems in edge cloud
Needs- Tera-scale access and core- Network slicing for verticals
Smartcity
Smarthome
Health care
Self-driving
Industry
Smart grids
The New Value (3): Digital Value Platforms
29 © Nokia 2017
The Simple Formula
1 1 1 11 11 111+ + = +
ms Gbps Tn $Tn GSPs LSPs
30 © Nokia 2017
And the winners will be…
Global Providers Local Providers
Become a high performance Infra company first and foremost
• Create highly optimized, high performance edge-cloud network
• Support massive scale, adaptive network slicing and hosting infrastructure
• Create alliance with global providers for E2E service offerings
• Offer real time (edge) analytics and security services
Become a DVP company first and foremost
• Create or acquire new digital value platforms
• Create E2E (industry-centric) service offerings
• Create alliance with local providers for edge network slicing & high performance services delivery
• Leverage local value for real time (edge) analytics and security services