the future of work, workers, and technology: the...

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Page 1: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

THE GREAT UNCERTAINTIES

Independent Economist

THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY:

+

JED KOLKO

Page 2: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

It’s a catastrophe! No, it’s utopia!

Jobs will be Uber-ized into gigs!

Robots will eat all the jobs!

Technology will free us from work!

Page 3: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

The future of work

1. Tectonic shifts

2. The structure of work is uncertain

3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain

Deep shifts and great uncertainties

• The aging workforce

• The decline of dynamism

• Shift to non-work income

>

Page 4: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

Tectonic shift #1

Percentage of workforce age 55+

11.9%

15.6%

21.7%24.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1994 2004 2014 2024(projected)

The aging workforce

Page 5: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

Tectonic shift #2

Less job-hopping by young workers

Less job creation and job destruction by firms

Fewer long-distance moves

Why? Maybe:

• Regulations

• Housing costs

• Declining social trust

• Responsibilities for care

The decline of dynamism

Page 6: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

Tectonic shift #3

Wages and salaries, % of total personal income

Shift to non-work income

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Page 7: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

The future of work

1. Tectonic shifts

2. The structure of work is uncertain

3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain

Deep shifts and great uncertainties

>

Page 8: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

New structure of work: not just “gig economy”

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1995 2005 2015

Percentage of employed workers in “alternative work arrangements”(Katz & Krueger, 2016)

Online Gig Economy >

Page 9: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

For traditional breadwinners, less security

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1983 1996 2004 2014

25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1983 1996 2004 2014

25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Median years at current job: men Median years at current job: women

Page 10: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

The future of work

1. Tectonic shifts

2. The structure of work is uncertain

3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain

Deep shifts and great uncertainties

>

Page 11: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

Most at risk: middle-skill “routine” jobs

Occupation Projected change, 000’s, 2014-2024

Bookkeeping and accounting -148.7

Fast food cooks -80.4

Mail carriers -78.1

Executive secretaries and admins -44.6

Farmworkers and laborers -42.9

Sewing machine operators -41.7

Tellers -40.0

Mail sorters and processors -39.7

Cutting, punching, and press machine operators -39.5

Switchboard operators -37.0

Page 12: THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY: THE …jedkolko.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/future-work-style-FINAL-a… · The future of work 1. Tectonic shifts 2. The structure

° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

Yet: past tech disruption hasn’t eliminated work. Will this time be different?

Employment/population ratio, age 25-54, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Men

Women

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How to approach the future of work

Focus 10-20 years out

Scenarios, not predictions

Work touches everything

We’re all in it together