THE FUTURE OF SKILLS

AND JOBS

Work and Skills 2025 ConferenceTallinn, 20 April 2016

Mark KeeseHead of the Employment Analysis and Policy Division

Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs

Megatrends shaping the future of work

Technology Digitalisation

Globalisation Environmental change

Ageing societies

Changing:

What jobs will be

created

How, where and

by whom they are

carried out

Expect substitution for certain kinds of jobs:

polarisation in skill demands

Index of changing work tasks in the USAIndex value: 1960 = 50

Source: Levy and Murnane (2013), Dancing with Robots:

Human Skills for Computerized Work, Third Way

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interpersonal

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution

-40

-20

0

20

40

Abstract (high-skill)

Routine (middle-skill)

Non-routine manual (low-skill)

Demand for skillsGrowth (%) 1995/98-2010

Source: OECD (2015). In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits

All, OECD Publishing.

Employment to population ratioPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)

Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database

Technical change has changed the occupational structure of our economies and the

types of skills needed but not the aggregate demand for labour.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

AU

T

DE

U

ES

P

SV

K

EN

G /

NIR

NO

R

CZ

E

NLD IT

A

CA

N

Ave

rage

US

A

FR

A

DN

K

IRL

SW

E

PO

L

JPN

BE

L (F

l)

FIN

ES

T

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)

Workers at high risk of substitutionPercentage of workers with >70% of substitutable tasks

Mass technological unemployment or mass

change in job task requirements?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1991 2007 2014

Greater income,

efficiency and

flexibility?

The platform economy is coming near you

Or less social

protection and

greater precarity?

The future of work requires a change to

how we think about skills

ICT skills, problem-solving

skills, socio-emotional

skills

New skill sets for new occupations and tasks

Decision-making skills

New forms of employment

Lifelong learning

Skills recognition

Training policies for multiple careers

Do workers have the skills for the new jobs?

(57)

(57)

(62)

(56)

(64)

(58)

(54)

(54)

(56)

(56)

(48)

(59)

(56)

(55)

(46)

(55)

(50)

(52)

(49)

(50)

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

POL

IRL

SVK

EST

KOR

USA

AUT

CZE

Average

BEL (Fl)

JPN

ENG / NIR

DEU

CAN

AUS

DNK

NOR

NLD

FIN

SWE

Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3

No ICT

skills or

basic

skills to

fullfill

simple

More

advanced

ICT and

cognitive

skills to

evaluate

problems

and

solutions

Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from

the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.

Problem-solving skills in Technology-Rich EnvironmentsPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)

Few high-skilled

workers

Many workers

lacking ICT skills

Extensive skill mismatch across countries

0

5

10

15

20

Skills mismatch in literacyPercentage of over- and under-skilled workers

Over-skilled Under-skilled

Notes: Over-skilled workers are those whose proficiency score is higher than that corresponding to the 95th percentile of self-reported well-matched workers – i.e.

workers who neither feel they have the skills to perform a more demanding job nor feel the need of further training in order to be able to perform their current jobs

satisfactorily – in their country and occupation. Under-skilled workers are those whose proficiency score is lower than that corresponding to the 5th percentile of self-

reported well-matched workers in their country and occupation.

Source: Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012), Table A4.25.

…and across sectors and fields of study…

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Health and welfare

Social sciences, business and law

Teacher training and education science

Engineering, manufacturing and construction

Service

Science, mathematics and computing

Humanities, languages and arts

Agriculture and veterinary

Field of study mismatch by field of study – EstoniaPercentage of workers from a field working in another

Source: Montt (2015) based on the Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012)

…leading to a substantial wage penalty for

those who are mismatched…

Notes: Linear regression with log(wages) as the dependent variable. Control variables in all country regressions: age, experience, tenure, type of contract, firms size etc.

Source: Montt (2015) based on the Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Wage penalty for over-qualified and field of study mismatched workers

Percent of working population participating in job-related education and training during the last year

Job-related training – most in need get the least

0

20

40

60

80

100

United States England/N.Ireland (UK)

Canada Australia Japan Germany Spain Italy Korea

Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.

Need for better anticipation of changing

skill needs and greater responsiveness

Skills

foresight

Outcomes

Labour market information

Training decisions Courses offered

Greater responsiveness

Involving all key stakeholders

Education &

training system,

other ministries,

social partners

In Estonia, plans to

complement quantitative

analysis with qualitative

information. Need for

greater sectoral detail

In Estonia, good cross-

ministerial collaboration

but weak co-ordination at

sub-national level

Formal cooperation across

ministries & other

stakeholders (legal basis:

ITA, USA; advisory groups:

DNK; dedicated institution:

ASL, IRE, UKM)

Ad hoc working groups (e.g.

NLD, USA)

Need for greater alignment in identification of

skill needs across stakeholders

• 74% of education providers across 8 major EU Economies believe youth to be prepared for their job

• Yet, only 35% of employers share the same opinion on new hires

Integrated skill needs information for better

employment, education and migration policy

Education policy

Migration policy

Social partners

Employment policy

Update occupational

standards

Revise, design, allocate

training programs

Develop apprenticeship

programs

Fast track entry of

migrants with skills

needed by employers

Attract talent from

abroad to fill skill gaps Advise members on

skills to promote

Influence labour and

education policy

Update NQF & curricula

Information for students

on employment prospects

Decide course provision

and funding

Contact: Mark.Keese@oecd.org

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Thank you

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