the future of robotics
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Robotics
Bax Smith, BSc, BEng, MEng CandidateEN9940
Today
l The Optimistsl The Pessimistsl The Realistsl Robotics Todayl Discussion
The Optimists
The Optimists
l Ray Kurzweill Hans Moravecl Marvin Minskyl Alan Turing
Ray Kurzweil
l Author of “Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence”
l Robotics Engineer/Researcherl Precarn
Ray’s Ideas
l Historical Exponential Viewl Growth Fueled by Advances in Hardwarel Exponential Growth Persists through Paradigm
Shiftsl Next Paradigm: The Third Dimensionl The Software of Intelligence
Historical Exponential View
Growth Fueled by Advances in Hardware
l Faster hardware results in newer technologies
Exponential Growth Persists through Paradigm Shifts
l Moore’s Law will run out of steam in 20 years– No big deal – that paradigm will be replaced– Electromechanical Calculators, relay based
computers, vacuum tubes, discrete transistors and now integrated circuits
Next Paradigm: The Third Dimension
l Nano-tubes– 1inch cube is 1M times more powerful than human
brain
l Molecular computersl Electric Circuits
The Software of Intelligence
l Hardware no good w/o Softwarel Approximations to biological systems
– GA, Neural Nets
l Reverse Engineering of the human brain– Using nano-technology– Destructive scanning
Hans Moravec
l Author of “Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind”
l Robotics Engineer/Researcher
Hans’ Ideas
l MIPS vs Timel 1st Generation Universal Robots - 2010l 2nd Generation Universal Robots – 2020l 3rd Generation Universal Robots – 2030l 4th Generation Universal Robots – 2040l Life in the Short, Medium and Long Run
MIPS vs Time
1st Generation Universal Robots
l Year: 2010l Processing Power: 3000 MIPS (lizard)l General Purpose Perception, manipulation and
mobilityl Rigid Programming
2nd Generation Universal Robots
l Year: 2020l Processing Power: 100,000 MIPS (mouse)l Accommodation Learningl Adaptive Learning
3rd Generation Universal Robots
l Year: 2030l Processing Power: 3,000,000 MIPS (monkey)l World Modeling (simulations)l Learns from simulations when idle
4th Generation Universal Robots
l Year: 2040l Processing Power: 100,000,000 MIPS (human)l Reasoningl They will develop their own lives
Life in the Short, Medium and Long Run
l Short:– People use robots to do real work
l Medium: – Robots do all work, provide for humans
l Long:– Robots outgrow earth, reach into universe
Marvin Minsky
l Author:– Why People Think Computers Can’t– Will Robots Inherit the Earth?
l Robotics Engineer/Researcher
Marvin’s Ideas
l Webs of Meaningl Problem Solvingl Self-Awarenessl Knowledge and Common Sense
Webs of Meaning
l What is five?– Way to count– Std. Set of Five Things– Pentagon, x, v, cross
l When a meaning fails, switch to something elsel Don’t deal with things in a single way!
Problem Solving
l ‘do now’ programmingl ‘do if needed’ programmingl ‘do something sensible’ programming
Self-Awareness
l Are Robots Self-Aware?l Are Humans Self-Aware?
– What is going on in our minds?– Ears, eyes to strings of symbols
l What are the limits of Computers?l What are the limits of our minds?
Knowledge and Common Sense
l Computers– Get caught in endless loops– Interpret hyphen as minus– Send us bills for $0.00
l Common Sense vs Expertise (Complexity)– Kids playing with blocks vs solving calculus
problems
Alan Turing
l Turing Test for Thinking– Fool a human judge into thinking a computer is a
person via freewheeling conversation
l Objections– Machines have no soul– Humans don’t have mechanical reasoning– Computer do what we tell them– Analog vs Binary
The Pessimists
The Pessimists
l Ted Kacynskil Bill Joyl Kevin Kelly
Ted Kacynski
l Author of “Industrial Society and Its Future”
Ted’s Ideas
l Technology facilitates and consolidates centralized control
l As technology grows, we lose our freedoms and are forced to comply with the system
Bill Joy
l Founder of SUN
Bill’s Ideas
l New Technologies, New Challengesl Genetic Engineering and Nano-Technologyl Robotics
New Technologies, New Challenges
l Past:– Weapons– Developed by military– To be used once
l Future:– Nano-technology, genetic engineering, robotics– Developed by the commercial sector and military– Self-replication
Genetic Engineering, Nano-Technology and Robotics
l Specially engineered humans/machinesl Self-replicating nano-bots
– Can get out of control– Use Shields?
l Nano-bots lead to Robotics
Kevin Kelly
l Author of “Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World”
Kevin’s Ideas
l Will Robots Replace Humanity by 2100?– In nature, species rarely replace another species– Think of robots like children – let them go
The Realists
The Realists
l Ralph Merklel John Koza
Ralph Merkle
l Don’t block nano-tech research– We have to be educated in order to form an opinion– Tech. Advances could save lives– Economic Gain
John Koza
l 1GHz PIII does about 3000 MIPS– Where is the lizard?
Robotics Today
Discussion
Discussion Topics
l Where do you think we will be at in 20, 50, 100 years?
l Will Robots replace Humans?l Will Humans merge with Robots?
Ben Shahn
l Ever since I could remember, I’d wished I’d been lucky enough to be alive at a great time –when something big was going on, like a crucifixion. And suddenly I realized I was.