the future of publishing june 2010
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The future of publishing 2010TRANSCRIPT
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the future of publishing
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NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE
FUTURE
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THE END
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NOT REALLY…
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BUT PREDICTING THE
FUTURE IS TRICKY…
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“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve
out a big slice of the U.S. market.” - Business Week, 1958
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“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876
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“Theoretically, television may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility – a development which
we should waste little time dreaming about.” - Lee de Forest, inventor of the cathode ray tube, 1926
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there are 710,000 results to choose from
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…here’s 10
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1. people will pay for what they value - but not for things they
are forced to pay for
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2. winning publishers will
be flexible and agile,
embracing emerging
platforms
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…and methodology of distribution will be more vital
than presentation of destination
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3. open, de-centralised publishers will win
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…closed, silo’d publishers will lose
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4. the definition of 'print' will change
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…just as the process of
watching TV, listening to
radio and reading news
is changing has changed
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5. citizen journalism will fundamentally affect the publishing industry
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6. harnessing the wisdom of the crowds will be proven as a
competitive advantage
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7. multiple business models will exist, with no
single ‘solution’ winning
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…crossing over industry types to aggregate revenue streams
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8. consumption will be
markedly different between
alternative machines and
screens
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…people won't be forced into unsuitable experiences
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9. differentiation of publisher offering will be from lateral innovation rather than solely
improving content
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10. the ease of discovering, sharing and
purchasing will determine success as
much as the content itself
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jonathan macdonald
jonathanmacdonald.com
linkedin.com/in/jonathanmacdonald
@jmacdonald
thank you