the future collider
TRANSCRIPT
The Future Collider((Futurist Primer and Nine Collision Events of the Future))
Josh Davis, Aperio Insights
What is the relationship between [Innovation] and the
FUTURE?
EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing
Step 1: Working in small groups; list three
{game changers} of the past five years.
These could be technologies, events or organizations of significant impact.
(These game changers should be something surprising, something that only a few people saw beforehand.)
EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing
Step 2: In those same groups, list one or two
{amazing futures}It could be a new Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic or Political reality.
It might be some new and incredible technology, experience, development, etc. Try to think just past the capabilities of today’s reality. Be creative and aspirational!
So what is a Futurist?
As a Foresight Analyst, it is my task to assess an
organization’s (foresight capabilities) and recommend
to the client how they can be more [Future Ready…]
Trendspotting?
While helpful, trends can be limiting, giving
us only an
abbreviated picture
of a few data sets tracked up to now.
Trends are more about the present than they are the future. The future is not less than trends.
RATHER IT IS TRENDS AND MUCH MORE.
The VUCA EnvironmentVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
Not only…
… is the future a dice game. (volatile)
But…
… we don’t know how many dice we have. (uncertain)
… how many sides on each
die. (complexity)
…. or what a winning roll looks like. (ambiguity)
• Trends tell us about the present, while emerging realities give potential to the present.
Emerging Realities vs. Trends
• Trends are directional, while emerging realities are dimensional.
• Trends fire through emerging realities and are very difficult to track into the future. Emerging realities absorb and create new trends. They are the “stuff” that seeds future consumer demands.
• Trends are what customers are doing (or have recently done) while Emerging Realities are the ideas of what consumers will do.
Emerging Realities Rapid Fire
Welcome to the [ Future Collider ]!
Nine Collision Events
from fifty-three [ Emerging Realities ]
Accelerating Serendipity
Passion Based Life Personalized Entertainment
The process of finding something good or useful made faster and automated.
Social Media
Growth of various media tools/technologies encourage P2P interaction
The MMORPG effect: the consumer’s desire to have a fully unique effect
Living life where less may be more; having less allows for a more fulfilling life.
Event 1: The Personal Consumer
Simultaneous Identities
Social media users develop multiple discreet profiles with various levels of openness, a form of riskless play.
Authenticity
Authenticity redefined (especially in light of living simultaneous identities)
Versioning
The Internet of Things The Interconnected World
Products are shipped intentionally unfinished, then updated through reiteration.
Smart Cities Multimodal Interaction
Cities become more effective at connecting the people, devices, and other cities.
Interfacing with technology using voice, touch, gesture, or telekinesis. Death of the keyboard
The move to global ubiquitous access to information and knowledge. Network of networks. Not just one internet but many.
Devices, products, services, and other items connect with each other and with users in a nearly seamless environment.
Mobile Computing Revolution
Future generations will not be tethered to land lines as most computing goes mobile.
Event 2: Connected to Everything
Social Innovation
Power of the Crowd
Addressing the world’s problems through entrepreneurship and business.
Social technology that affords crowds more “democratic power” than any previous generation.
Hyperlocal
Consumers becoming much more invested in the area where they live.
Gamification for Good
Gamified activities used to drive social consciousness or solve big problems (i.e. hackers gamed the HIV nucleus and 3D mapped it).
Freemiums
A premium cost to high-value customers allows a less rich experience to more for free.
Event 3: Local Power and New Scale
Rentennials
Redefining Digital Ownership Collaborative Consumption
Consumers increasingly prefer renting to buying.
Valued Hacking
Access over Assets
Harnessing the power of hacker groups and hacker culture.
Consumer preference for subscription-based services rather than an asset purchase.
Use of sharing services allow assets like cars or bicycles to be more fully utilized
Digital media re-sell sites force the question: “who owns media that is digitally downloaded?”
Event 4: New Age of Sharing
Robotics
Self-Driving Cars Apps Replace People
Advanced robots with the ability to write news as linguistically complex and nuanced as a human author.
Innovating Energy Storage 3D Printing
Energy storage that responds to growing global energy demands with small high-capacity components.
Printing tools components, machinery, in color using desktop 3D printers. Future will have multi-media and organic 3D printers.
Apps (i.e. Apple’s Siri) that have complex and intuitive software to augment various daily tasks.
Google cars have traveled more than 300K miles without an accident (twice as safe as the average car on the road).
Alternative Energy
Growing alternative energy markets including wind, solar, kinetic, bio-fuel, geo-thermal
Event 5: Disruptive Invention
Predictive
Passive Computing
Software and devices that anticipate consumer needs and map preferences
Geospatial Predictive Analysis
Overlaying mined data with map data to forecast items such as crime hotspots, traffic jams, demographic shifts, etc.
Computers and devices speaking to each other, assessing their user’s needs and performing actions on their behalf in the background.
Speech Recognition
Beyond Voice-to-Text and Siri, new voice technologies will distinguish relevant data in conversational style language.
Event 6: Super-Smart Computers
Screen Time
Quantified Self
The advent of the digitally-native generation and the comparative amount of “screen time.”
Mood Based Marketing
Mood detection software that affects how devices interact with the user.
Sensors embedded in clothing, toothbrushes, pedometers, even ingestible devices to capture “big human data” and provide lifestyle diagnostics.
Customization
The Attention Economy
A host of options due to just-in-time production and customer demand for individual experience
Competing for the attention of the potential consumer (i.e.: multi-sensory advertising, direct marketing, interactive commercials)
Event 7: My Technology Knows Me
Plug and Play Modular Open SourceBig Data
Innovation acceleration drives a modular approach to system construction, allowing for ease of repair and upgrade.
Cloud Computing Monetizing the Internet
Creatively leveraging online content among a consumer base to monetize curated or generated content.
Accessing data, information, and processes without the constraints of maintaining local storage.
Massive amounts of data manipulated by complex algorithms to provide unique or fresh insight.
Loosening the reins on Internet content, platforms and IP
Democratized Distribution
Content will be accessed through an array of cheap or free distribution channels: wireless, fiber, white space TV spectrum, radio, satellite and others.
Event 8: Open and Organic Internet
Real Life Story Immersion
Location-Based Stories
Experiential and participative entertainment consumption by going to a place and role-playing an experience.
Immersive Gaming
Adventure Tourism
Immersive Travel
Tourism becoming more about experience than holiday, some adventure is even found locally by exploring a city’s abandoned buildings.
Transmedia approach to gaming media consumption (i.e. movies with “second screen” function via tablet that force participation and collaborative story-telling).
Rather than going to a theme park, consumers choose immersive experiences like living off of $5/day while traveling through France.
Stories or history told to the user through an augmented reality interface while traveling with a smart device.
Gamification
Making life a game with rewards for accomplishments, games that drive a richer, more social experience (i.e. Foursquare).
Event 9: Awesome Experiences
Augmented Reality Integrated HMI
Holographic Performances
Integrated HMI (i.e. Google Glasses) overlays digital information through the use of wearable or otherwise integrated electronics.
Not just rich 3D video, but also intuitive and learning software, which can allow a holograph to move and speak like an actual person.
Applying an overlay to real life that adds to the experience with more information or gamification.
Adult Playgrounds
Experiences and services for adult play.
Event 9: Awesome Experiences
EXERCISE 2: Collision Course
Step 1: Let’s put this to {action} Refer to your
group’s deck of emerging realities.
As a group, select any three of the
[Nine Collisions] to form the inputs for your Collision Story.
Make snap judgments; pick quickly! Fill in your group’s selections into section one of your collision report.
(Keywords: asymmetrical , non-linear , meshing , collision , etc.)
EXERCISE 2: Collision Course
Step 2: Ask the question, “what is {happening} here?”
Spend ten minutes thinking about what this collision might
cause. How might your EVENT be used?
What new products result or how will your event
[affect] things like mobile technology? family structures? government regulation? travel or leisure?
What (if any) new communications tools, patterns, or modes/media are there as a result of your event?
EXERCISE 2: Collision Course
Step 3: In order to add definition to the event, plan a short story that
discusses your Collision Event. Refer to section three of your worksheet.
Fill out all subsections: • the hero’s profile - who did you meet in this future?
• a brief[story] tagline - what is the conflict or theme of this story?
• future {artifact} - what did you find worth bringing back? Step 4: As time permits, give a brief report on your future artifact
Collision Report