the future challenges of sustainable energypd-symposium.org/files/csfd/03. csfd-stiesdal.pdf ·...
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Stiesdal
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The Future Challenges
of
Sustainable Energy
Henrik Stiesdal, 10.11.17
Stiesdal
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Why work in sustainable energy?
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Source: NCDC, NOAA
The key driver is mitigation of climate change
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Glo
bal
Te
mp
era
ture
An
om
aly
(de
g.C
.)
Monthly 5-year average
+0.017 deg.C per year
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Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!
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Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!
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Predicted temperature rise in 50 years
Source: NCDC, NOAA
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On a personal level we may learn to adapt to some of the effects …
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… Other effects will no be so easy to adapt to
Stiesdal residence
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One of the results will be hundreds of millions of climate refugees
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We know what the problem is ...
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... And we know the solutions!
Source: Siemens, First Solar
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The global scene - development in new power generation capacity
Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016
Cru
de
oil
pri
ce (
$/B
arre
l)
New
cap
acit
y, (
$B
n)
Renewables
Fossil
Large hydro
Nuclear
Crude oil
53.5% of new invstments
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The global scene - development in new power generation capacity
Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016
Cru
de
oil
pri
ce (
$/B
arre
l)
New
cap
acit
y, (
$B
n)
Renewables
Fossil
Large hydro
Nuclear
Crude oil
53.5% of new invstments
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Distribution of new renewables capacity, 2015, $Bn
2
3
4
6
110
161
0 50 100 150 200
Geothermal
Biofuels
Small hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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The future looks better than before –
Source: IEA
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But we are far from done yet!
Source: IEA
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The global wind market development
Source: GWEC, IEA
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cu
mu
late
d in
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
An
nu
al in
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
Annual Cumulated
$110 Bn.
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
Let us check it out for wind power
?????
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To the necessary extent ...
- Det var osse meget sjovere, dengang vi selv producerede varmen.
Politiken, 25.08.89Miljøminister Lone Dybkjær oplyser, at de vandsenge, der findes rundt om i Danmarks sovekamre, bruger lige så meget strøm, som alle danske vindmøller fremstiller
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To the necessary extent ...
Source:
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Win
d p
rod
uct
ion
re
lati
ve t
o lo
ad
Wind power share in Denmark
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Area use for offshore wind at 100% of load (pre-Brexit!)
Area use. Denmark
• DK load: 35 Bn. kWh/year
• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year
• Area required: 1115 km2
• Corresponds to one offshore wind
farm measuring 35 km x 35 km
Area use, EU
• EU load: 2.800 Bn. kWh/year
• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year
• Area required: 90.000 km2
• Corresponds to nine offshore wind
farms, each measuring 100 km x
100 km
Still plenty of sea available for
shipping and fishing!
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A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
Making renewables happen
?????
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Without destroying the climate …
820
490
4824 12 12 11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Coal Gas (CC) PV(utility)
Largehydro
Wind off Nuclear Wind on
Life
cycl
e C
O2
, g/k
Wh
Source: Energinet.dk
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A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
Making renewables happen
?????
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Without creating unnecessary public opposition ...
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How the opponent sees the wind farm!
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A typical modern offshore wind farm as seen from the beach
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
?????
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Disruptive 2016 cost reductions in bottom-fixed offshore wind
Source: Berkeley National Lab
Vattenfall near-costal
Shell Borssele III-IV
DONG Borssele I-II
Vattenfall KriegersENEL, Morocco
DONG + EnBW, DE
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The message is sinking in!
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
?????
?
Stiesdal
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A classical picture of production and load
Source: EMD
Load
Central
Decentral
Wind
Spot
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
• We need to expand low-cost offshore
wind power
• We need to develop energy storage, and
• We need to be able to finance this effort
????
÷
?
Stiesdal
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Willy ”Slick” Sutton
Source: FBI
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Sutton’s Law
When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton said:
“Because that is where the money is!”
Reality – from Sutton’s memoir
“I never said it. The credit belongs to some enterprising reporter…
Why did I rob banks? Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive
when I was inside a bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life.”
Source: Sutton W, Linn E: Where the Money Was: The Memoirs of a Bank Robber. Viking Press (1976)
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Sutton’s Law
The incarnation of Focus
“Because that is where the money is!”
So – where is the money?
• Research
• Invention
• Innovation
• Industrialization
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The most spectacular piece of innovation in this century
1st iPhone
Released January 2007
The Apple phone was widely discussed prior to release –yet the “full package” was truly new
1st iPod
Released October 2001
The iPod and iTunes dramatically changed the music business, and the way we interact with music players
The iPad introduced an entirely new PC product line;reshaping centuries-old traditions of paper-based reading
1st iPad
Released
April 2010
Number of defendable patents:
Zero
Source: Apple
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The effects of the iPhone
Source: Vatican
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Innovation in wind power - growth in turbine size
Source: Siemens
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The first Bonus turbine – 30 kW, Tambohuse, 1981
Status
▪ Grid connected October 1981
▪ Still operating in its 35rd year
▪ Annual energy 18,500 kWh
▪ Total Energy 630,000 kWh
Source: Siemens
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The most recent Siemens turbine, 6 MW, Westermost Rough
Status
▪ Commissioned 2015
▪ Calculated lifetime 24 years
▪ Annual Energy 25.000.000 kWh
▪ Will in 10 days produce same energy
as the first turbine spent 35 years
producing
Source: Siemens
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The Siemens 8 MW rotor
Source: Siemens
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The 75 m blade for the Siemens 8 MW
Picture credit: Siemens
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The effect of the larger rotors on DK wind productivity
Source: Naturlig Energu
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Cap
acit
y Fa
cto
r
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The money is also in industrialization!
Source: Ford Motor Company
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The learning curve, Li-ion batteries and crystalline PV modules
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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Floating wind power
Picture credit: Statoil
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The US offshore wind potential
Source: NREL
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The Japan offshore wind potential
Sources: JWPA
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Existing floating wind concepts
Picture credits: Siemens, Principle Power, Hitachi, U.Maine, MHI, Mitsui
Shared characteristics
• Very heavy – from 2500 tons to 10.000 tons for 7 MW class turbines
• Construction methods from shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas
• Fabrication typically at port of floater launch
• Build times typically measured in months
• Tens of thousands of man-hours per foundation for steel cutting, fitting, welding, handling, etc.
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First Floating Wind Farm, Statoil’s Hywind Scotland
Sources: Statoil
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The TetraSpar floating concept
• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from
floating offshore wind
• Combines benefits from known floater concepts
• Is suitable for genuine industrialization
• Applies proven technologies
• Can be configured for installation at water depths
from 10 m to more than 1000 m
• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global
application
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• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from
floating offshore wind
• Combines benefits from known floater concepts
• Is suitable for genuine industrialization
• Applies proven technologies
• Can be configured for installation at water depths
from 10 m to more than 1000 m
• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global
application
Solution element #2 - industrialization
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Taking advantage of a world champion …
The humble wind turbine tower
• Probably the world’s lowest cost per kg of
any large steel structure
• High quality welds and surface protection
• More than 20,000 towers manufactured
annually in highly industrialized processes
How did we get there?
• Separation of fabrication and installation
• Modularization and standardization
• No IP of any significance – costs kept low
through open competition
Picture credit: Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association
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The keyword for TetraSpar – Industrialization the onshore way
Mindset
• Conventional thinking
• We have designed this structure – now,
how do we build it?
• TetraSpar thinking
• We need to manufacture this way –
now, how do we design it?
Concept
• Modular – all components factory-made,
transported by road
• Components assembled at quayside with
bolts (not exposed to sea water)
• Turbine mounted in harbor and towed to
site, no installation vessels
• Weight 1000-1500 t for 8 MW turbine
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How an assembly and installation area might look
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Launching floater using land-based crane
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Target cost trajectory for TetraSpar
Source: DoE, NREL, IEA
TetraSpar
50
-10
0
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Getting floater ready, wind generator and turbine in background
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Testing
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
• We need to expand low-cost offshore
wind power
• We need to develop energy storage, and
• We need to be able to finance this effort
????
÷
?
Stiesdal
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Thermal Battery Storage system
• Energy storage system based on storage
of thermal energy
• Storage medium crushed rock (basalt) in
insulated tanks
• Charging and discharging with compressor
and turbine, using thermodynamic
processes
• Charging: Heat pump cycle (150% eff.)
• Discharging: Brayton cycle (40% eff.)
• Round-trip efficiency: 60&
1 Motor
2 Compressor
3 Turbine
4 Cold storage tank
5 Hot storage tank
6 Recuperator
7 Cooler (not used during charging)
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Thermal Battery compared with known storage technologies
Topic Li-ion Pump H2O CAES Hydrogen SST
Technology readiness
charge-discharge
Mature Mature Mature Development
stage
Mature
Technology readiness
storage unit
Mature Mature Mature Mature Development
stage
Round-trip efficiency 90% 85% 40-60% 30-50% 35-65+%
Round-trip energy
cost
High Low Low Medium Low
Energy density High Low Low High High
Footprint Small Large Small Small Small
Scalability, power 0.01-25 MW 50-1000 MW 5-100 MW 1-1000 MW 1-1000+ MW
Scalability, energy 0.01-25 MWh 100-10.000
MWh
10-1000
MWh
1-100.000
MWh
1-100.000
MWh
Location requirement None Special
topography
Special
geology
Special
geology
None
Raw material use High None None Moderate
(electrolyzer)
None
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Storage costs depend on charging costs
6099 119 99
395 409
703 693
95131
195
127
420 440
735 725
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Co
st o
f En
erg
y fr
om
Sto
rage
, $/M
Wh
Charge @ $0/MWh Charge @ $20/MWh
• 24 h storage capacity• 1 charge-discharge
cycle per day• DoD 50%
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Google pumped-heat energy storage system
Source: Bloomberg
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Making renewables happen
A preferred source of electricity must be
able to deliver the desired electric energy -
• to the necessary extent,
• without destroying the climate,
• without excessive public opposition,
• at an affordable cost, and
• when it is needed
• We need to expand low-cost offshore
wind power
• We need to develop energy storage, and
• We need to be able to finance this effort
????
÷
?
Stiesdal
© Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 67
The Stanford Analysis
Source: Stanford
Three related challenges, confront
scaling up clean energy spending in
line with the IEA’s 450 Scenario:
• The Quantity Problem
• The Quality Problem
• The Location Problem
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The Stanford Analysis
Source: Stanford
The Quantity Problem
• The annual investments needed to
keep global warming under 2
degrees C would absorb a very
significant portion of the world’s
total annual investible capital;
• On average, institutional investors
put to work $3.4 trillion annually
• The IEA’s 450 Scenario depends
on investors purchasing clean
energy stocks and bonds, or
directly lending to (“debt”) and
investing in (“equity”) clean energy
projects for $2.3 trillion annually.
Sustainable energy requires 2/3 of
all annual investments
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The Stanford Analysis
Source: Stanford
The Quality Problem
• The key generation technologies
(wind and solar) have reached
universal bankability at western-
world utility scale.
• However, many applications of
wind and solar, and many
supporting technologies (electricity
networks, other low-CO2
technologies, energy savings,
etrc.) are seen as having higher
risk profiles
• A large part of the investment
money available is substantially
very risk averse
The risk profiles don’t match
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The Stanford Analysis
Source: Stanford
The Location Problem
• We must triple global clean energy
spending within an annual global
pool of investible capital that is
mostly held in OECD nations.
• Much of the investments will have
to be spent in the non-OECD
developing world to deploy clean
energy where it is most needed,
with all the attendant risk.
The investments are needed where
the money isn’t
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The future trajectory - the Lazard LCoE Analysis
Source: Lazard
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The Lazard LCoE Analysis
Source: Lazard
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Lazard’s LCoE Values for Wind and PV, 2012-2016
Source: Lazard
10
100
1000
2010 2015 2020 2025
LCO
E [$
/MW
h]
Wind Solar PV
Gas reference
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We are up against a lot of inertia …
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… But we have a bright future in sustainable energy!
Status
• We have beaten coal and are beating gas on good wind and solar sites
• We will ultimately beat gas on all relevant sites
The biggest challenges are
• Inertia
• Investment constraints
What we need to continue is
• Innovation, also on finances
• Industrialization
If we succeed
• The question across the world will change from
• “How can we afford it”
• to
• “How can we afford not to?”
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© Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 76
Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1900
Source:New York City Library
Spot the car!
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Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1913
Spot the horse!
Source:New York City Library
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Your moment of Zen
Siemens 8 MW wind turbine
▪ The future offshore workhorse
▪ Annual Energy Production 25
million kWh at an offshore site
▪ 50 pcs. 8 MW at an offshore
site have an AEP equal to the
annual electricity consumption
of the 290.000 households in
Copenhagen
▪ Likely to be the lowest cost
source of green electricity from
2020 onwards
▪ Designed and built in Denmark
That is kind of OK!
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© Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 79
Thanks for your attention
Henrik Stiesdal