the first slide deck
TRANSCRIPT
VALUATIONS HAVE BEEN RISINGENTREPRENEURS IN THE CATBIRD SEAT
COMPETITION FOR DEALS HAS BEEN INCREASINGHEDGE FUND MONEY FLOODING INTO THE PE MARKET
TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF EXIT WINDOW
COMBINATION RESULTING IN DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON IRR
THE PROBLEM
THE SOLUTION:
INCITE PANIC!
DRAW COMPARISON OF CURRENT SITUATION TO DOWNTURN AFTER DOT‐COM BUST
COMPARISON, THOUGH, IS VERY WEAKDOT‐COM BUST WAS CAUSED BY VCSMANY VCS RETURNED MONEY TO LPS AFTER DOT‐COMFUNDS RETURNING MONEY NOW ‐ NONE
CONVINCE WITH QUANTITY, NOT QUALITYINUNDATE AUDIENCE WITH INFORMATIONINCORRECT INITIAL ASSUMPTION WILL BE OVERLOOKED
STRATEGY
GENERATE LONG “DOOMSDAY” PRESENTATION AND DISTRIBUTE
DOCUMENT WILL BE PRESENTED AT A MEETING AS A “WARNING TO PORTFOLIO CEOS”
ENSURE MASS DISTRIBUTION BY AGRESSIVELY “LEAKING” THEPRESENTATION
SHOULD HAVE COMPLETE PENETRATION OF STARTUP MARKETBY YEAR’S END
MECHANISM
DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON VALUATIONSIMMEDIATE EFFECT ACHIEVED WITH PANICVALUATIONS WILL DROP FAST AND BE SLOW TO RECOVERECONOMIC CRISIS MAY BE ACUTE, BUT IMPACT WILL LAST
REDUCED COMPETITIONHEDGE FUND MONEY WILL EXIT AS PUBLIC RETURNS TANKNEW VC FUNDS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO RAISE
BENEFITS OF PANIC
REDUCED AVAILABILITY OF EXITSWINDOW IS ALREADY CLOSED
REDUCED VALUATIONS FOR EXITSVALUATIONS SHOULD RECOVER BY THE TIME THE WINDOW REOPENS
POTENTIAL NEGATIVES OF PANIC
RENAME FUND: $EQUOIA