the evolution of systems thinking in the 20th century 100 th birthday anniversary of ludwig von...
TRANSCRIPT
The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
100th Birthday Anniversary of Ludwig von Bertalanffy
Technical University of Vienna, 2. Nov. 2001
Ao Univ. Prof. Dr. Günther OssimitzUniversity of Klagenfurt, Austria
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 2
My Habilitation work: Development of Systems Thinking
Ch 1: Approaches towards Systems Thinking in the Literature Ch 2: What is Systems Thinking? - a Definition Ch 3: Systems Thinking / System Dynamics in Math Education Ch 4: Empirical Studies about the Development of Systems Thinking Ch 5: The Study: „Development of Systems Thinking“
Main issues: - How can students learn Systems Thinking (ST)?- How can System Dynamics modelling help to develop ST- How can ST abilities be empirically measured?
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 3
Some Systems Thinking Approaches• Qualitative Approaches:
– Frederic Vester (Biocybernetics)
– Systemic Management: e.g. Peter Gomez/ Gilbert Probst– Peter Senge: „The Fifth Discipline“ ST and Organizational Learning
• Cognitive Psychology - Dietrich Dörner: „The Logic of Failure“
• System Dynamics-Approach (quantitative)– Jay Forrester (MIT) introduces SD at about 1960
– Barry Richmond sells SD Software STELLA under „systems thinking“
Each of these approaches is connected with Education!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 4
Systems Thinking Approaches - Overview
qualitative quantitative
Forrester:IndustrialDynamics
Forrester/Meadows:
SystemDynamics
1970
1960
1980
1990
Dörner:complexproblemsolving
Vester:Sthink asa guiding
Idea
Richmond:Systems
Thinking(1)
Gomez/Probst:Systems Thinking
in Management
OrganizationalLearning
SDyn / SThinkat School
Senge:Systems
Thinking(2)
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 5
What is Systems Thinking? Literature: ST is very fundamental and important e.g. George Klir: Facets of Systems Science (1991, p19): "Systems movement emerged from three principal roots: mathematics, computer
technology and a host of ideas that are well captured by the general term systems thinking."
This is the only appearance of the term "systems thinking" in Klir's great book! The same applies to a number of other important works of systems literature.
Almost no serious definition of ST in systems literature!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 6
My Definition of “Systems Thinking“
• Dynamical Dim. - Thinking in dynamical processes: beyond snapshot-thinking; understanding stocks vs. flows, delays, oscillations...
• Model Dim. - Thinking in Models /Awareness of Systems: modeling assumptions, model-reality; qualitative vs. quantitative models
• Feedback Dim. - Thinking in loops and networks: interrelated structures, indirect effects, feedback loops, networks of interrelations
• Pragmatical Dim. - Steering of Systems: finding the "leverage point", counterintuitive behavior, proper intensity and timing of actions.
Four interelated dimensions:
My Definition integrates different views of Systems Thinking!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 7
Intersection: Dec 27-Dec 28
Dynamical Thinking: Discerning stocks and flows
Correct: < 20%
When was the number of Hotel guests a maximum? Give your answer just by a quick glimpse at the diagram without any tedious calculations!
Arrivals and Departures in a Hotel: Dec 18 - Jan 10
ArrDep
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 8
Thinking in Models: Heroin Market 1
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 9
Price Elasticity Heroin-market
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11kg Heroin available
pri
ce p
er k
g H
ero
in
Tsd ATS
Price Elasticity of Heroin
10 kg Heroin available: 1000 ATS/kg: 10 Mio S Revenue9 kg Heroin available: 2000 ATS/kg: 18 Mio S Revenue !
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 10
Thinking in Models: Heroin Market 2
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 11
Lessons from the Heroin Models:• Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD`s) are useful tools!• CLD‘s help to discuss a situation. Different viewpoints can be
clarified and checked more easily.• The „same“ situation can be modeled in different ways.• CLD‘s allow a reflection of model assumptions.• Small differences in a model might have serious consequences.• What appears to be the solution at first sight, might (via
feedback) make the problem even more severe!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 12
Feedback Thought: The Arms Race(Peter Senge: The Fifth Discipline)
Armation A
B feels endangeredA feels endagered
Armation B
+
+
+
+
Escalating ("positive") feedback loop
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 13
The result of the Arms Race
Total Amount of Armation in Arms race
Time (years)
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 14
George Richardson: Two threads of
Feedback Thought
- Servomechanisms Thread- Cybernetics Thread
George Richardson (1991):Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory (p. 93)
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 15
George Richardson's Message:• Feedback is a common fundamental idea in all systems approaches• The feedback structure is often hidden in peculiar notations• Explicit counsciousness of feedback in the 20th century• Many roots of feedback thinking:
– Biology-math. Models (Verhulst, Lotka, Volterra)– Econometrics (Tinbergen, Samuelson, Hicks)– Engineering (Watt, Maxwell, Lyapunov)– Social Sciences (Hume, Smith, Ricardo, Hegel, Marx, Bateson, Keynes, Lewin)– Biology-Homeostasis (Hippocrates, Cannon, Rosenblueth)– Logic (Epimenides, Boole, Cantor, Russell, Whitehead, Carnap, Goedel)
• Two main Feedback Threads in the 20th Century– Cybernetics Thread (Ludwig von Bertalanffy et al)– Servomechanisms Thread
•
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 16
The Cybernetics Thread• Feedback was seen as an influence from output back to input.• Feedback concept just for negative loops, no escalating loops• Feedback is seen as homeostasis and control • stability and instability of negative feedback systems• Feedback analyses are usually verbal rather than mathematical or
pictorial• Feedback was associated with information transmittion,
communication networks, information theory• background idea: the ceration of intelligent machines
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 17
The Servomechanism Thread• Formal dynamic feedback models employed• Basic idea: Behavior depends upon feedback structure• Feedback loops are seen as intrinsic part of real system• positive and negative loops were present• counterintuitive behavior of systems: well-intented policies lead
to disaster• Policy Analysis is an important aspect of practical systems
analysis
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 18
Ludwig von Bertalanffy on Systems Thinking• LvB did great work in integrating different Systems approaches
(Biology, Chemistry, Psychology, Cybernetics, Social Sciences) into a General Systems Theory (GST)
• GST was basically founded with mathematical concepts (differential equations, functions, stability)
• Feedback concept is only implicit in GST - lack of feedback notation• Advances in Systems Thinking beyond GST are possible with new
tools for diagramming/sketching feedback structures
Systems Thinking needs systemic means of communcation (e.g. mind maps, CLD`s, stock-flow-diagrams)!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 19
My conclusions concerning Systems Thinking
• Systems thinking is like a tree: many roots and many branches• Feedback is a core concept of systems thinking. Others are:
– thinking in processes, thinking in models, steering systems
• Systems thinking abilities are darely needed, yet, hardly developed, even among higly educated persons!
• Systemic diagrams are crucial for systems thinking / communication• Causal Loop Diagrams are easy to learn and very flexible systems
diagramming tools
Systems thinking should be a guiding idea for any education at any age!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 20
How to contact me:
• http://go.just.to/go Homepage G. Ossimitz• http://go.just.to/pap Papers (incl. this lecture)• http://go.just.to/sd System Dynamics / Systems
Thinking Mega Link List• alternativ: www.ossimitz.at• mail: [email protected]
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 21
Systems Thinking und System Dynamics:Die Sichtweisen von Forrester und Richmond
Richmond’s View of the Relation betweenSystem Dynamics and Systems Thinking
SystemDynamics
Sy
s t e ms T hi nk i ng
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics
Forrester’s View of the Relation betweenSystem Dynamics and Systems Thinking
Richmond: „Systems Thinking is System Dynamics with an Aura“
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 22
Ossimitz (1991):Vier Stufen systemdynamischen Darstellens und Modellierens
verbale Beschreibung
Wirkungsdiagramm
Flußdiagramm
Gleichungen
quantitativ
qualitativ
Richmond (1991): What is Systems Thinking?
SystemsPerspective
InfluenceDiagram
StructuralDiagramm
Equations/Simulation
A continuum of Systems Thinking Activities
Systems Thinking Activities <=>systemische Darstellungsformen
Testaufgabe "Staatsverschuldung vs. Budgetdefizit"
Graz: µ=0,76Wien: µ=0,8Graz: µ=0,32Wien: µ=0,68Graz: µ=0,64Wien: µ=0,72Graz: µ=0,44Wien: µ=0,52Graz: µ=0,16Wien: µ=0,28Graz: µ=0,4Wien: µ=0,56
Klgft:63%
30%
62%
42%
56%
41%
Klagenfurt: n=104 (BWL)Graz: n=25 (USW)Wien: n= 25 (WU,TU, Uni)
In Fantasien nennt man den Betrag, um den die Staatsausgaben in einem Jahr höher sind als die Staatseinnahmen, "öffentliches Budgetdefizit". Im Jahr 1998 betrug das öffentliche Budgetdefizit in Fantasien 60 Mrd. Taler, Ein Jahr später lag es bei 40 Mrd. Taler. Kreuzen Sie an, welche der folgenden Aussagen richtig bzw. falsch bzw. nicht beantwortbar sind!
Im Jahr 1999 wurden 20 Mrd. Taler Schulden zurückbezahlt
Der Finanzminister konnte die Staatsschulden von 1998 auf 1999 um ein Drittel senkenWenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu senken (ausgeglichen zu budgetieren), dann hat Fantasien keine Schulden mehr.
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu senken, dann hat Fantasien seinen höchsten Schuldenstand erreicht.
Ein geringeres Budgetdefizit bedeutet eine geringere Staatsverschuldung.
Die Schulden sind sowohl 1998 als auch 1999 gewachsen.
Diese Performance hätte man auch durch Münzwurf erreicht!
G. Ossimitz: Development of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
page 24
Literatur
• Dietrich Dörner (1989): Die Logik des Misslingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen. Reinbek: Rowohlt
• Gomez/Probst (1987): Vernetztes Denken im Management. Die Orientierung 89. Bern: Schweizerische Volksbank
• Günther Ossimitz (2000): Entwicklung systemischen Denkens. München: Profil
• George Richardson (1991): Feedback thought. Reading: Pegasus Communications
• Peter Senge (1990): Die fünfte Disziplin. Stuttgart: Klett-Cotta
• John Sterman (2000): Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGrawHill-Irwin
• Frederic Vester (1999): Die Kunst, vernetzt zu denken. Stuttgart: DVA