the evolution of mexican financial markets

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October 31, 2013 The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets Prepared by: Joe Kogan, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets Araceli Espinosa, Fixed Income Strategy, Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets Mexico

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Page 1: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

October 31, 2013

The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

Prepared by:

Joe Kogan, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets

Araceli Espinosa, Fixed Income Strategy, Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets Mexico

Page 2: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

1

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Fixed Income

3. FX

4. Equity

5. MexDer

6. Scotiabank

Page 3: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

1. Introduction

Page 4: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

3

CME Group / MexDer Partnership

April 4, 2011South-to-North Order Routing successfully launched

August 1, 2011North-to-South Order Routing to launch

Benefits• No withholding taxes when trading in MexDer

• No local presence required in Mexico

• Remote Membership

• Omnibus Accounts: Rule 30.7 (CFTC) segregation

o One for Proprietary Trading

o One for Customer Trading

• With the CME Group – MexDer order routing agreement MexDer products will be available in more than 100,000 CME Globex ® screens.

• CFTF Approved Products

• Remote Membership

• Co-Location

• DMA

• Collaterals accepted in the U.S.

• Give Ups

o FIA standard agreement

In March 2010, CME Group and Bolsa Mexicana de Valores announced a new strategicpartnership.

Page 5: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

4

CME Group / MexDer Global Partnership Page

For more information on CME Group’s partnership with MexDer, plus Order Routing Agreementsand upcoming events, visit the MexDer Partnership Page at www.cmegroup.com/mexder. Available resources include:

1. List of MexDer Clearing Members

2. North-to-South FAQ & Onboarding Reference Guide

3. Client Impact Assessment Document

4. MexDer / CME Group Partnership Brochure

5. Presentation on Mexican Bond Markets and IPC Futures

Page 6: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

2. Fixed Income

Page 7: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

6

Mexican Sovereign Bonds: Outstanding Amount and Holders

Pension and Mutual Funds represent a solid, stable and a long term investmentin the local markets, holding about 33% of the total amount outstanding.

Mexican Sovereign Bonds: Total AmountOutstanding of Mbonos and Cetes

1999-2013 (October)

Mexican Sovereign Bonds: Holdings by Local Investors (Total Outstanding Bonds)

2007-2013 (October)

Source: BanxicoSource: Banxico

Page 8: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

7

Mexican Sovereign Bonds: Foreign Investors

Foreign holders of Mbonos are mainly Central Banks, Insurance Companies, and SovereignFunds. As a consequence we expect lower foreign outflows during high volatility periods.

Foreign Investment in Mexican Cetes and Mbonos

Cetes: Foreign Investment 2009 - 2013 Mbonds: Foreign Investment 2009 - 2013

Source: Banxico

Page 9: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

8

Benchmark Rate and Macroeconomics

Mexico Budget Balance (%GDP) Mexico CPI 1979-2011 (Annual Rate)

M Bono 10 Yr

Investment

Grade

for Mexico

Banxico

Tightening Mexican Presidential

Elections (Calderón)

Lehman Bankruptcy /Comerci derivatives

default

WGTB Index: Inclusion Mbonos

Subprime Mortgages contagion

FED Taper news

Mexican Presidential

Elections (Peña Nieto)

Page 10: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

9

MEXICO – USA: Benchmarks Rates /Spreads

Spreads between Mexican and US interest rates have been tightening due to solid fundamentals in Mexico.

USA – MEXICO: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE VS BANXICO OFFICIAL OVERNIGHT RATE

2005-2013

USA – MEXICO BOND YIELD SPREAD 10 YR2001-2013 (October)*

* US Generic Govt 10 Yr Yield vs GMXN10YR Index. Source:BloombergSource: Bloomberg

Page 11: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

10

MEXICO – Government Securities Auction Calendar Q2/13

The Government schedules auctions 1 month in advance of each quarter.

Primary Auction Issue Program (average data)

Source: SHCP

Page 12: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

11

Daily Market Volumes

Mbonos Market

• Bid ask spread is 1-3 bps, depends on volatily in Market• Typical sizes are MNX$ 10-100 mm. Larger sizes would entail much larger bid-ask spread.• Most liquid 10Y: June 20 and Dec. 23• Most liquid 20Y: May 29• Most liquid overall: Dec 24• Functioning repo market for domestic players• No on-the-run premium as there is in US Treasuries• 7 Market Makers approved by the Financial Authorities. They must comply with liquidity and volume standards on a monthly basis• Qtr. Issuance schedule, sometimes new series, sometimes add to existing series.• Security lending is available; Short selling is allowed to/through the Market Makers and/or Mexder• Central counterparty “Indeval” clears, deposits and custodies all securities.• Securities settlement within 96 hours• Trade between 8:00 am and 3:00pm EST• 4.9% withholding tax if double taxation treaty; 10% otherwise and 30% for tax havens• No taxes in FX, Equity, and derivatives

Up to90 days

From90 days to

1 Yr

From 1 Yr to 3 Yr

From 3 Yr to5Yr

From 5Yr to 10 Yr

From 10 Yr to20 Yr

More than20 Yr

Cetes 759 1,045 0 0 0 0 0

Mbonos 8 22 67 72 400 102 100

Udibonos 0 0 26 9 71 23 34

Sources: Banxico as of May 2013.Average Daily Volume US Million

Page 13: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

12

Mexico - USA: Nominal and Swap Curves

The Mexican term structure offers many opportunities for trading, with tenors ranging from 1 day to30 years.

* Source: Bloomberg as of Oct. 29, 2013

USA – MEXICO Bond Curves* USA Libor Curve– MEXICO TIIE Curves

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

3months

6months

9months

1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4 yr 5 yr 8 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 30 yr

Page 14: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

13

Mexder: Fixed Income Contracts

Worth mentioning is the fact that MBonos Futures are very liquid and trade at tight spreads.

MEXDER and its clearing firm ASIGNA already have a 2 and 10 years swap that can be “delivered/received” once the future expires directly using ASIGNA as a counterparty.

Ticker Symbol Bond Futures M3/M5/M10/

M20/M30

28-Day TIIE Futures Contracts

(TE28)

91-Day Cetes Futures Contracts

(CE91)

Interest Rate Swaps 2-Year / 10-Year

(SW02 /10 + Month and Maturity Year)

UDI MXN Fixed/Float

28-Day TIIE (Swap)

Quotation Price Interest Rate Interest Rate Interest Rate

UDI x 100

Nominal Fixed Interest Rate expressed in pp

Size 1,000 bonds (MXN$100,000) MXN 100,000 10,000 CETES

(MXN 100,000) MXN 1 Million 50,000 UDIS

MXN 1 Million

Tick MXN 0.025 / USD* 0.00208 1 bp (0.01) 1 bp (0.01) 0.5 bp

$0.001 MXN x Udi

1 bp (0.01)

Notional Value MXN 100,000 MXN 100,000 MXN 100,000 MXN 1 Million 50,000 UDIS

MXN$1 million

Maturity Months Quarterly, up to 3 years

Monthly up to 10 years

Monthly up to 12 months. Quarterly, up to 24 quarters

Monthly and Quarterly

Monthly and Quarterly

28 days rolls from the Effective Date

Settlement Physical Delivery Differentials Differentials Physical Delivery

and Differentials Cash Settlement

Exchange of cash flow

Trading Hours 8:30 – 15:00 EST 8:30 – 15:00 EST 8:30 – 15:00 EST 8:30 – 15:00 EST 8:30 –

15:00 EST 8:30 – 15:00 EST

Bloomberg (MMDD) DWA (CMDTY) CT

DOA (CMDTY) CT GMA (CMDTY) CT SWTA (CMDTY)

CT

IUA (CMDTY)CT

MXN 3X1 (CMDTY)CT…

R.30 – Reuters MXN/FUTEX1 0#B10: 0#T11: 0#CTE: 0#SW2 and 0#SW10 0#UDI: na

 

Page 15: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

3. Foreign Exchange

Page 16: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

15

Currency Distribution of Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover

Latin American FX Markets Turnover

Global FX Market Turnover

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Mexican peso Brazilian real Chilean peso Colombian peso Argentine peso Peruvian nuevo sol

1. Mexico is positioned as the 13th most traded currency in the world

2. It is the third most traded currency of the emerging economies, just below the Hong Kong dollar and the Korean won

3. That makes the MXN the most traded currency in Latin America

Emerging Markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

US Dollar Euro JapaneseYen

Poundsterling

Australiandollar

Swissfranc

Canadiandollar

HongKongdollar

Swedishkrona

NewZelanddollar

Koreanwon

Singaporedollar

Norwegiankrone

Mexicanpeso

Othercurrencies

Note:

The graphics show the percentage shares of average turnover in April of 2010. The sum of the percentage shares of all the currencies add up to a total of 200%, instead of 100% because two currencies are involved in each transaction.

Sources: Triennial Central Bank Survey, Bank for International Settlements

Page 17: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

16

Total Volume of the MXN Market

The greatest amounts traded in the MXN market come from foreign investors, who account for95% of the volume in swaps and 76% in cash and forward contracts.

Source: Central Bank of Mexico, millions of dollars, daily basis.

Page 18: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

17

Total Volume of the MXN Market

If the volume traded by foreign investors is classified by terms, then it can be seen that most of these positions are long pesos in the intraday and 24 hour term and short pesos in the 48 hoursand greater terms, suggesting that foreigners are taking advantage of the high interest rates in theshort term. This can also be seen in the increasing position of the Cetes owned by foreigners.

Source: Central Bank of Mexico, millions of dollars, daily basis.

Page 19: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

18

Central Bank’s Monetary Policy

• The Central Bank issues put options that can be exercised at the last day’s FIX, if this is not greater than the average of the last 20 days’ FIX rate.

• The Central Bank auctions US$ 600 million by the end of each month, giving investors the opportunity to exercise the options throughout the next month.

• In this way, the Central Bank follows a less aggressive monetary policy than other countries in Latin America. Its policies bear some resemblance to those of Colombia.

International Reserves as a Percentage of the GDP 2013

How the Central Bank of Mexico intervenes in the FX market:

International Reserves USD 2013

Peru 67,108

Brazil 367,002

Chile 47,483

Mexico 174,262

Colombia 37,466

International Reserves / GDP %

Page 20: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

19

MXN: Operating Factors

• No Withholding Tax

• Settlement within 48hours most common; also quoted are intra-day and 24 hour settlement

• There is a very liquid futures market: OTC forward, CME Mexican Peso contract and Mexder USD contract

• Many brokers and matching systems available to trade Mexican Peso.

• Many foreign and local participants

• 24 hours trading

• Settlement should done by SWIFT

• Full delivery

Factors that influence the MXN performance:• High liquidity in the international economy

• Oil prices

• Economic fundamentals

• No direct intervention of the Central Bank in the FX Market

• Change in investors’ risk perception, which contributes to the daily volatility

MXN: Operating Factors MXN: Drivers

Page 21: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

20

Mexder: Currency Derivatives

Large Volume and High Open Interest are found in MXN/USD Futures.

MXN/USDFutures

MXN/EUROFutures

MXN/USDOptions

Ticker Symbol DA Euro DA

Quotation / Style Price Price European

Size $10,000 USD $10,000 EUROS $10,000 USD

Tick $0.0001 MXN $0.0001 MXN $0.001 MXN

Maturity Months Monthly, up to 3 years Monthly, up to 1 year Quarterly, up to 1 year

Settlement Physical delivery Cash Settlement Physical delivery

Trading Hours 8:30 – 15:00 hrs. EST 8:30 – 15:00 hrs. EST 8:30 – 15:00 hrs. EST

Bloomberg (MMDD) DSA (CRNCY) CT BEA (CRCNY) CT MXX (CRCNY) OMON

R.30 – ReutersMXN/FUTEX1 0#MXP: 0 # EURO: 0 # DA:XD

Page 22: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

4. Equity

Page 23: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

22

Returns on Emerging Market Indices

• The IPC is the benchmark equity index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (Mexbol): a capitalization-weighted index composed of the country’s 35 most liquid stocks

• Total market capitalization of the index was US$410 billion as of July 19, 2011• Index members trade on the Mexbol between 9:30am and 4:00pm EST• The index has posted a +17% CAGR over the prior 16 year period; the return on the MSCI

index for Mexico was 12.6%.

International Reserves as a Percentage of the GDPMSCI EM vs MSCI Mexico - YOY ReturnsTicker MSCI country indices16 YR CAGR

Mexico 12.6%

Russia 18.1%

India 12.4%

Brazil 11.9%

China 1.2%Sources: Bloomberg

Page 24: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

23

IPC: Industries

• Members represent 17 different industries• The largest five index members represent 56% of the index• The main industry groups by market capitalization are Telecoms (28%), Retail (19%) and

Mining (14%)

Engineering & Construction

Telecommunications

Banks

Beverages

Retail

Mining

Real Estate Pharmaceuticals

Food

Building Materials

Chemicals

Diversified Financial Services

Forest Products & Paper

Holding Companies-Divers

Machinery-Diversified

Home Builders

Media

Sources: Bloomberg

Page 25: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

24

IPC: Traded Volume

• The top three stocks trade 48% of the total volume (AMX, GMEXICO and WALMEX) in the IPyC. The top ten stocks represent 76% of the index volume.

• In the LTM the index recorded an average daily trading volume of US$417 Million

Source: Scotiabank with Mexican Stock Market data as of Oct. 2013

2010: FIX 4.2 Aug.11: v4.4 protocol

Daily Trading Amount (US$M)

Page 26: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

25

Size of the Equity Local Market

• There are more than thirty brokerage houses in the country, including small and large firms. Fifteen of them (Scotiabank included) account for ~80% of the traded volume.

• The International Quoting System (SIC in Spanish) trades more than 300 ETF’s and more than 280 foreign stocks.

• Among the holders of Mexican equities are foreign institutional investors such as US big pension funds, mutual funds, etc.

• The Naftrac, a local ETF which mirrors the performance of the IPC, is the most traded stock with a YTD ADTV of US$180 million.

*Source: Scotiabank with Mexican Stock Exchange data as of October 29, 2013

Most traded stocks in Mexican Equity Market: Accumulated Amount 2013 YTD* US$M

Page 27: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

26

Pension Funds: Equity Holdings

Afores (Mexican pension funds) managed MXN1.6 trillion in September 2013As of Sep. 2013, 25% of assets under management were invested in equities vs. 11.1% in November 2008.

Source: Scotiabank with Consar data

Page 28: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

27

Mexican ADR

Sources: Bloomberg

Ticker Short Name Shares per ADR

AMX US AMÉRICA MÓVIL 20

TMX TELMEX 20

CX US CEMEX 10

TV US GRUPO TELEVISA 5

FMX US FEMSA 10

ICA US EMPRESAS ICA 4

HXM US HOMEX 6

PAC US GAP 10

ASR US ASUR 10

OMAB US OMA 8

KOF US COCA COLA 10

SIM US GRUPO SIMEC 3

MIXT US MAXCOM 7

VITRY US VITRO 3

GMK US GRUMA 4

IBA US BACHOCO 12

Page 29: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

28

Operative Factors

• Security lending is available• Short selling is allowed to/through the Market Makers and/or Mexder• Central counterparty “Indeval” clears, deposits and custodies all securities.• Securities settlement in 72 hours• Omnibus account allows non-disclosure of customer name• Foreign investors settle stocks through Euroclear, Clearstream or DTC vs Indeval in Mexico.• Foreigners and local customers must trade in local market through Mexican Brokerage

Houses.• Fully electronic exchange• Electronic access should be negotiated with a Mexican Brokerage House• Specific rules govern electronic access to the Exchange• CNBV (Mexican banking and securities regulatory and supervision authority) performs

extensive audits to verify compliance with these rules• Market makers exist for the less liquid stocks

Page 30: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

29

Mexder: IPC

• Futures and Options for IPC and some individual stocks and Traccs

• IPC non action letter was issued by the CFTC

• The IPC futures and Options are the most active

IPC

Futures

IPC

Options

Ticker Symbol IPC IP

Quotation/Style IPC points European

Size IPC*10 IPC x $10 MXN

Tick 5 points 1 point

Maturity Months Quarterly, up to 1 year Quarterly, up to 1 year

Trading Hours 8:30 – 15:00 hrs. EST 8:30 – 15:00 hrs. EST

Bloomberg (MMDD) ISA (INDEX) CT ISA (INDEX) OMON

R.30 – ReutersMXN/FUTEX1 0#IPC: 0#IPC:XD

Page 31: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

5. MexDer

Page 32: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

31

Mexder

MexDer, The Mexican Derivatives Exchange was launched in December 1998. It is fully electronic, and provides listings for financial futures and options on Mexican securities and indices.In recent years, Mexder had the following important achievements:

• Market Makers.• IPC contracts No actions letter.• Fix Connectivity• Remote Trading Membership• No Withholding tax• Order Routing Agreement with CME

Group.• Non customer disclosure Omnibus

accounts.• IRS Full Delivery Futures Available

(Dodd-Frank Regulation).• Regulation Segregation between

House trading and Customer trading (30.7)

• Give ups.

MEXDER

Vol

um

e O

per

ado

/ V

olu

me

Trad

ed

Iner

ésA

bie

rto

/ O

pen

In

tere

st

Amounts in millions of contracts

Blue bars = volume Green line: open interest

Source: Graph from Mexder webpage.

Page 33: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

32

Clearing House

• Asigna is the counterparty for all transactions performed onthe market. It is evaluated and rated each year by threeleading international rating agencies.

• Asigna is the best counterparty in Mexico.

Local Rating Global Rating

Fitch Rating AAA (mex)

Standard & Poor’s mxAAA/mxA-1+ local currency BBB/A-3 foreign currency BBB/A-2 local currency

Moody’s AAA.MX A1

Page 34: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

33

Futures Contracts Activity (Excluding TIIE 28 Futures Contracts)

UDI / Inflation Index0.00%

Dólar US / US Dollar27.48%

Acciones / Individual Equities0.44%

CETE 9111.97%

SW10 (entregable) / 10-yr CCS

0.21%

BONO M32.68%

BONO M50.20%

BONO M108.95%

SW10 / 10-year IRS0.07%

Euro0.18%

IPC / IPC Equity6.51%

SW02 (entregable) / 2 yr CCS0.12%

BONO M2012.06%

Dólar US / United States Dollar

29.12%

Futuros/ Futures I.A. O.I.*SW10 / 10-yr IRS 956

SW10 (entregable) 10-Yr CCS 2,823

SW02 (entregable) 2-Yr CSS 1,500

CETE 91 158,000

BONO M3 22,100

BONO M5 2,700

BONO M10 118,157

BONO M20 159,122

BONO M30 14,300

UDI / Inflation Index 0

Dólar US / United States Dollar 384,119

Euro 2,428

IPC / IPC Equity Index 85,854

Acciones / Individual Equities 5,885

Source: Scotiabank with Mexder data

USD/MXN Mexder Futures Contract Activity

10 YR Bond Mexder Futures Contract Activity

Source: Scotiabank with Mexder data

Page 35: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

6. Scotiabank

Page 36: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

35

Why Scotiabank for MexDer?Global Banking and Markets, the corporate and investment banking, and capital markets, businesses of the Scotiabank Group, is a full service clearing and execution provider in Mexico for all Futures and Options products listed on the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MexDer).

As one of the most technologically advanced clearing members in Mexico, Scotia provides its clients with access to a wide range of services including Direct Electronic Access to the Mexican derivatives market through our broker, Scotia Derivados, and STP solution.

Some Clearing Services:

• A committed team of professionals focused on customized solutions for our clients. • Excellent execution and B/O systems. • On-line information and end-of the day reports via internet. • Opening an account takes a short time. • Competitive Commissions. • Effective, fast and safe client acceptance methodology. • Compliance and Anti Money Laundering Culture• Local Flavor and Research Reports.

WE WILL BE GLAD TO ATTEND TO YOUR NEEDS AS YOUR CLEARING MEMBER IN MEXDER.

Page 37: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

36

Scotiabank: Products, Services and Credit RatingsBANK

• Personal, Commerical and Corporate Banking• Wealth and Cash Management Services

INVESTMENT BANK (GBM)• Equities• Custody Services• Technical and Fundamental Research• Corporate Finance (Active in IPO Deals)• Money Market• Capital Markets• OTC Derivatives• Equity Derivatives• Securities Lending / Borrowing

SCOTIABANK Long Term CREDIT RATING:The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) is AA-Scotiabank Inverlat Mexico MA AAA

SCOTIABANK Short Term CREDIT RATING:The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) is A-1+Scotiabank Inverlat Mexico A-3

Page 38: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

37

Scotiabank GBM Emerging Markets Contacts

Joe KoganHead of Emerging Markets Strategy

(212) 225-6541

[email protected]

Drew MillerTrader, Local Rates

(212) 225-6515

[email protected]

Percy MoreiraHead of Emerging Markets Sales

(212) 225-6514

[email protected]

Fredrik NilssonHead of Emerging Markets Trading

(212) 225-6528

[email protected]

Guillermo Camou(52 55) 9179 5132

[email protected]

Lorena Pichardo(52 55) 9179 5133

[email protected]

Angélica Aguilar(52 55) 9179 5134

[email protected]

New York Emerging Markets

Scotiabank Inverlat Mexico

Derivatives Sales /Mexder

Carlos A. KretschmerHead of Capital Markets

(52 55) 9179 5130

[email protected]

Araceli EspinosaFixed Income Strategist

(52 55) 9179 5237

[email protected]

Jorge González-RomeroHead of Fixed Income Sales

(52 55) 9179 5109

[email protected]

Carlos Alberto HernándezDirector, Trading Fixed Income & Rates

(52 55) 9179 5125

[email protected]

Page 39: The Evolution of Mexican Financial Markets

38

Disclaimers

Disclaimer About Taxes

The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute legal or tax advice. You should consult with a qualified tax advisor before making any investment decision. Tax laws and authorities are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively, and any subsequent change could have a material impact on your situation. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations.

Disclaimer About Fixed Income Strategy

The fixed income strategy reports contained herein have been prepared for Institutional Investors by Fixed Income Strategists of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. (“SCUSA”) and may include contributions by strategists who are employees of affiliates of SCUSA. Fixed Income Strategists are employees of SCUSA’s Fixed Income Credit Sales & Trading Desk and support the trading desk through the preparation of market commentary, including specific trading ideas, and other materials, both written and verbal, which may or may not be made publicly available, and which may or may not be made publicly available at the same time it is made available to the Fixed Income Credit Sales & Trading Desk. Fixed Income Strategists are not research analysts, and this report was not reviewed by the Research Departments of SCUSA. Fixed Income Strategist publications are not research reports and the views expressed by Fixed Income Strategists in this and other reports may differ from the views expressed by other departments, including the Research Department, of SCUSA. The securities laws and regulations and the policies of SCUSA that are applicable to Research Analysts may not be applicable to Fixed Income Strategists.

These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. Prices shown in this publication are indicative and SCUSA is not offering to buy or sell, or soliciting offers to buy or sell any financial instrument. SCUSA may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein. SCUSA may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this publication. Other than the disclosures related to SCUSA, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that SCUSA believes to be reliable, however we do not represent or warrant that such information is accurate and complete. The views expressed herein are the views of the Fixed Income Strategists of SCUSA and are subject to change, and SCUSA has no obligation to update its opinions or information in this publication.

SCUSA and any of its officers, directors and employees, including any persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document, may from time to time act as managers, comanagers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities or related derivatives which are the subject of this publication. Neither SCUSA nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from this publication or its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors. SCUSA recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer and security discussed in this publication, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment.

Additional Disclosures

United States: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., and a registered U.S. broker-dealer. All transactions by a U.S. investor of securities mentioned in this report must be effected through Scotia Capital (USA) Inc.

Canada: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital Inc., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. DWM Securities Inc. is a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia and an affiliate of Scotia Capital Inc. Scotia Capital Inc. and DWM Securities Inc. are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. DWM Securities Inc. does not provide investment banking services.

Mexico: This report is distributed by Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., a subsidiary of the Bank of Nova Scotia. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law. Additional or special requirements or restrictions to some products offered may be applicable in your country of residence.

TM Trademarks of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate. Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available only in jurisdictions where permitted by law.