September 8, 2008

The evolution of ecosystem approaches:notes from the front lines

Kerim AydinAlaska Fisheries Science Center

THE ALASKAN CONTEXTTHE ALASKAN CONTEXTTHE ALASKAN CONTEXT

•• FederallyFederally--managed managed groundfishgroundfish populationspopulations–– Yield of 2.5M Yield of 2.5M mtmt/year/year

•• Conservative exploitation rates/productive stocks (unless youConservative exploitation rates/productive stocks (unless you’’re a crab). re a crab).

•• Some declining mammal and bird stocks (fisheries management withSome declining mammal and bird stocks (fisheries management withEndangered Species Act considerations)Endangered Species Act considerations)

•• ProPro--active management: ecosystem committee, ecosystem considerationsactive management: ecosystem committee, ecosystem considerationschapter, but also prochapter, but also pro--active lawsuits active lawsuits

•• The Congress finds and declares the followingThe Congress finds and declares the following–– A number of the Fishery Management Councils have demonstrated A number of the Fishery Management Councils have demonstrated

significant progress in integrating ecosystem considerations in significant progress in integrating ecosystem considerations in fisheries fisheries management using the existing authorities provided under this [Mmanagement using the existing authorities provided under this [MSFCMA].SFCMA].

Annual Ecosystem Considerations chapter: Annual Ecosystem Considerations chapter: A wealth of information A wealth of information ((BoldtBoldt et al. 2007)et al. 2007)

http://http://access.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/index.cfmaccess.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/index.cfm

•• Ecosystem Status IndicatorsEcosystem Status Indicators::–– HabitatHabitat–– Nutrients and ProductivityNutrients and Productivity–– ZooplanktonZooplankton–– Forage FishForage Fish–– HerringHerring–– SalmonSalmon–– GroundfishGroundfish–– Benthic and NonBenthic and Non--targettarget–– Marine MammalsMarine Mammals–– SeabirdsSeabirds–– Ecosystem/CommunityEcosystem/Community

•• EcosystemEcosystem--Based Mgt Indices:Based Mgt Indices:–– DiversityDiversity–– HabitatHabitat–– SustainabilitySustainability–– HumansHumans

Ecosystem Considerations• Ecosystem Assessment

– Summarize historical climate and fishing in BSAI and GOA and possible future effects on ecosystems using multi-species and ecosystem models

• Ecosystem Status Indicators– Historical and current status

and trends 60+ indicators

• Ecosystem-Based MngtIndices– Early signals of direct human

effects 20+ indicators

BS

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MSFCMA reauthorization (2007)MSFCMA reauthorization (2007)•• (5) [(5) [……] the fisheries can be conserved and maintained so as to ] the fisheries can be conserved and maintained so as to

provide provide optimum yields on a continuing basis.optimum yields on a continuing basis.

•• (33) The term "optimum", with respect to the yield from a fisher(33) The term "optimum", with respect to the yield from a fishery, y, means the amount of fish whichmeans the amount of fish which——

–– (A) will provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation [(A) will provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation [……]]

–– (B) is prescribed as such on the basis of the (B) is prescribed as such on the basis of the maximum maximum sustainable yieldsustainable yield from the fishery [from the fishery [……]]

–– (C) [(C) [……] provides for rebuilding to a level consistent with ] provides for rebuilding to a level consistent with producing the producing the maximum sustainable yieldmaximum sustainable yield in such fishery.in such fishery.

Sustainability?

• (Oxford English Dictionary 1989): Sustainable (adj): 1. Capable of being borne or endured; supportable, bearable.

• “From a human point of view, maintaining yield at a certain (maximal) rate or level over time implies that we are getting everything we can, which we think is best for society. From the resource viewpoint, however, this is something that the resource has to “endure,” which implies stress, and constant maximal stress at that.”– (Gaichas 2008, Marine Policy)

• How reversible (renewable) is a system from the continual endurance of maximum stress?

Does the primary goal of Does the primary goal of ““maximum sustainablemaximum sustainable””mesh with increased inclusion of mesh with increased inclusion of ““ecosystem ecosystem considerations?considerations?””

•• Are we in for a revolutionary collision? If so, where?Are we in for a revolutionary collision? If so, where?•• Can this we manage this Can this we manage this ““smoothlysmoothly””? If so, how?? If so, how?

Currently: fisheries science and Currently: fisheries science and management starts from a single management starts from a single speciesspecies

Ecology and statisticsEcology and statistics

•• Lots of singleLots of single--species ecology, lots of dataspecies ecology, lots of data

•• Lots of statisticsLots of statistics

–– Annual cycle per stock (45+ species or Annual cycle per stock (45+ species or complexes)complexes)•• Science reviewed by Plan TeamsScience reviewed by Plan Teams•• Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) sets Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) sets

maximum limit based on biologymaximum limit based on biology•• Advisory panel may set further limits Advisory panel may set further limits

(economic, social, allocation) (economic, social, allocation) •• Council decides.Council decides.

Stock assessment

authors

Plan teams SSC Council

Science, science review, and decisions Science, science review, and decisions ––North Pacific CouncilNorth Pacific Council

Advisory Panel

Data collectors

The primary The primary scorecardscorecard

(Time (Time doesdoes exist for multiexist for multi--year strategic actions: ecosystem committee, year strategic actions: ecosystem committee, nonnon--target committee, working groups, research, etc.)target committee, working groups, research, etc.)

Stock assessment

authors

Plan teams SSC

Along comes the ecosystem.Along comes the ecosystem.

Complexity vs. management realityComplexity vs. management reality

Eastern Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska

WHERE’S THE TEETH?

The The ““Programmatic Supplemental Programmatic Supplemental Environmental Impact StatementEnvironmental Impact Statement””•• The National Environmental Protection Act requires The National Environmental Protection Act requires EISsEISs for changes for changes

in management plans.in management plans.•• But also requires But also requires ““ProgrammaticProgrammatic”” EISsEISs which report on the which report on the

cumulative effects of many changes and plans.cumulative effects of many changes and plans.•• Punctuated the evolutionary equilibrium: Lawsuit from Punctuated the evolutionary equilibrium: Lawsuit from

environmental groups found we did not look at a wide enough environmental groups found we did not look at a wide enough range of alternatives, management strategies, and potential range of alternatives, management strategies, and potential ““cumulativecumulative”” impacts.impacts.

•• Never been done in a fisheries management plan context.Never been done in a fisheries management plan context.•• 1,000s of pages, multiple attempts, years of work and deadlines1,000s of pages, multiple attempts, years of work and deadlines……

•• We took a good hard look at our science, policy, and We took a good hard look at our science, policy, and procedures, and put forward (agreedprocedures, and put forward (agreed--to) methods for to) methods for looking at and monitoring cumulative and ecosystemlooking at and monitoring cumulative and ecosystem--level effects.level effects.

One lasting One lasting result:result:

Including Including ecosystem ecosystem considerations considerations in each stock in each stock assessmentassessment

(Lowe et al. 2007)

Plan team scorecard from summary of Plan team scorecard from summary of assessmentsassessments

•• How does this help? LetHow does this help? Let’’s look at a speciess look at a species……

Recent declines in the Eastern Bering Sea

Bottom-up production? Some indices

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Assessment focus: Forage fish biomass

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EBS POLLOCK

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This continued low level of forage was (qualitative) reason for caution for pollock discussed by BSAI Plan Team(Aydin and Mueter 2007)

The eastern Bering Sea:predators of

pollock.

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Evolution of single-species assessments to include advice frommultispecies models and indicators

From North Pacific Fisheries Management Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee minutes, December 2006:

• “The [eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock] stock remains above the MSY level, having declined … at a rate of about 19% per year….A series of 4 below-average recruitments has contributed to the decline…the series of low recruitments will result in an age-structure that is dominated by only a few year-classes which could increase fluctuations in the population.”

• “Other issues raised in the stock assessment suggest a need for further caution.”– a northward shift … with some portion of the population into Russian waters.

– a large decline in zooplankton, which is important in providing forage for juvenile pollock.

– increasing predation by arrowtooth flounder on juvenile pollock, which could contribute to further declines in adult pollock biomass.

• “Consequently, the SSC agrees with the Plan Team that a reduction in Allowable Biological Catch from the maximum permissible is justified.”

Result from single-species assessment

Assessment + ecosystem indicators

Ecosystem indicators

A multispecies model

Conclusion I:Conclusion I: Incorporating ecosystem Incorporating ecosystem concerns needs handconcerns needs hand--inin--hand work hand work between ecosystem researchers and stock between ecosystem researchers and stock assessment authors at many stages.assessment authors at many stages.

•• Mandate + resources Mandate + resources in assessment in assessment and reporting/Council process.and reporting/Council process.

•• (Not every species will need this level of scrutiny)(Not every species will need this level of scrutiny)

WhereWhere’’s the teeth II ?s the teeth II ?

•• Ecosystem Ecosystem --> Stock assessment works in the > Stock assessment works in the previous context, but:previous context, but:–– Stock assessment Stock assessment --> other stock assessment> other stock assessment–– Stock assessment Stock assessment --> > unassessedunassessed component component

•• What then?What then?

Solution I: more integrated monitoringSolution I: more integrated monitoring•• Ecosystem AssessmentEcosystem Assessment:: Combine trends Combine trends

and model results into ecosystem thresholds and model results into ecosystem thresholds to:to:–– Maintain predatorMaintain predator--prey relationships prey relationships –– Maintain diversity Maintain diversity –– Maintain energy flow and balanceMaintain energy flow and balance

Solution II: decision support toolsSolution II: decision support tools

Sustainability and current tools?• “Maximum Sustainable Yield is fine, close, reasonable.”• “Sustainable (adj): 1. Capable of being borne or

endured; supportable, bearable.”

• Reconciliation between two views:– How recoverable is a system from the continual endurance of

maximum stress? Risk of irreversibility is a key criterion.– Are we accurately reporting expectations? Are we misleading

with our ability to predict irreversible thresholds?

– Simulation with adequately broad models of potential interactions and uncertainty.

– Time-based risk management, long-term risk reporting.

Aleutian Islands Fishery Ecosystem Plan

Decision Support Tools and long-term Risk Assessment

Communication of strategic ecosystem alternatives must:• Specify policy risk based on uncertainty versus reward.

“Pollock drought”:length of time during which pollock catch remains below a reference level.

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CONCLUSION II: We must include time and events – and improve our use of this language of risk and uncertainty: state-based indicators may miss this.

AcknowledgementsJennifer BoldtShannon BartkiwJennifer BoldtNick BondDavid CarlileKristin CiecielAmy ChildersCathy CoonDean CourtneyKen CoyleBraxton DewMiriam DoyleDon DragooSherri DresselDoug EggersLisa EisnerLowell FairEd FarleyAngela Feldman

JISAO Fisheries And The Environment

Jesus Jurado-MolinaTom KlineKathy KuletzCarol LaddBob LauthHeather LazrusMike LitzowPat LivingstonMitch LorenzS. Allen MacklinMichael MartinBob McConnaugheyKathryn MierSteve MoffittJim MurphyJeff NappIvonne OrtizBob OttoJames Overland

Kalei ShotwellElizabeth SinclairPaul SpencerMick SpillanePhyllis StabenoDean StockwellRobert StoneAllan StonerSteve SyrjalaWard TestaJack TurnockDan UrbanGary WaltersMuyin WangFred WestTerry WhitledgeTom WilderbuerDoug WoodbyCynthia YeungHarold ZengerJie ZhengMark Zimmermann

Ron FelthovenShannon FitzgeraldLowell FritzJeff FujiokaSarah GaichasJessica GharrettJohn J. GoeringGary GreeneC. E. GroschSteven HarePat HarrisAlan HaynieKyle HebertJon HeifetzJack HelleTerry HiattJerry HoffJim IanelliJim Ingraham

Julie PearceMike PerezAmanda PooleFranz MueterAlexei PinchukSusan PicquelleMarc PritchettJennifer ReynoldsTaeKeun RhoDylan RighiKim RiveraSergei RodionovChris RooperTom RoyerLou RugoloSigrid SaloNandita SarkarJennifer SepezNaonobu Shiga