the energy transition and opportunities for eu industries in single file.pdf · worldwide industry...

The energy transition and opportunities for EU industries

European Parliament: Energy Transition Workshop Brussels, 19th February 2019

Andre FaaijDirector of Science ECN part of TNO

Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis , Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

INDUSTRY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT POTENTIALS IN HEAVY INDUSTRY

3

[Worrell, Utrecht University]

CCS IN ENERGY AND, ESPECIALLY, INDUSTRY

5

Source: IEA, Technological Roadmap CCS, 2009

CCS REQUIRES ADDITIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXAMPLE: NL)

6

National CO2network

Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines

Use existing gas production lines >2020

Trunk line to large UK offshore gas

fields

Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region

National CO2network




fields


[Damen et al., IJGHGC, 2008]

7

Berghout et al, 2016

SPATIAL ISSUES… EXAMPLE OF CCS IN RIJNMOND

8


INTEGRATED MITIGATION AT A REFINERY COMPLEX

CIRCULARITY

WHY:In 2015 world plastics production 335 Mta, only 2% of plastics closed loop recycling (Ellen McArthur)EU: in 2025 55% recycling rate set for plastics, 10 Mta plastics recycled to products (Circular Plastics Alliance) - in 2030 all plastics are recyclable and >50% is recycled Worldwide Industry partnership announced 1.5 billion euro initiative plastics recycling January 14, 2019

ELECTRIFICATION:

Key technical & scientific enablers:

Power to chemicals

Electro-organic synthesis CO2 electro-reduction

Electro-reduction

Electro-oxidation

Oxidation of furfura l

Oxidation of hydroxymethyl furan

Oxidation of a lcohols

Reduction of furfura l

Reduction of hydroxymethyl furan

Reductive amination

Reduction of oxygen

INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION -> ZERO CARBON FOOTPRINT; DAUNTING COMPLEXITY.Industry ~50% of primary energy use.Many options:

Energy efficiency improvement existing processesNew (inherently more efficient) processesRenewable feedstock ( biobased industryRenewable energy carriers (green power, green hydrogen)Carbon Capture & Storage (with BECCS negative GHG emissions)Recycling/re-use/circulair value chainsShifts in markets and products.

All combined! Over roughly 3 decades; overall one investment cycle!!Factory level, regional level, structural changes in economy and energy system11

Figure 2 Location and size of the main industrial emission clusters.1) Rotterdam - Moerdijk (16.9 Mt CO2); 2) Noordzeekanaalgebied (12.0 Mt CO2); 3)

Zeeland - W-Brabant (7.9 Mt CO2); 4) Chemelot (4.5 Mt CO2); 5) Eemsdelta (0.7 Mt CO2); 6) Emmen (0.5 Mt CO2).[8,9]

ADVANCED ENERGY SCENARIO’S FOR EUROPE; COMPETING / BALANCING OPTIONS...

12

13

Drivers and barriers for PtM

CO2 target (2050)228 Mton/y914 Mton/y

VRE penetration (%)97%0%

450 Mton/year

60%

CO2 storage0 Gton255 Gton

Biomass potential25.5 EJ/y 10 EJ/y 7 EJ/y

PtM Capex250 €/kW 75 €/kW

PtM Efficiency85 % 100%

LMG efficiency in ships

25 gCO2/tnm 12 gCO2/tnm18-20 gCO2/tnm

[Blanco et al., applied Energy 2018]

14

"Optimistic" scenario

*All values in PJ

Other dimensions are:• Costs (prices)• Time slices• Countries

PtG> 75% of gas demand~ 600 GW of capacity


15

"Alternative" scenario

*All values in PJ

PtG0% of gas demand~ 0 GW of capacity


Electricity system simulationsNW Europe 2050 with 60% iRESWeeks with maximum and minimumresidual loads during the year.

System implications!

[Brouwer et al., Applied Energy, 2016]

ALL THESE FACTORS MATTER…AND ARE INTERLINKED…

17

Joint effort of:

EEMSDELTA/DELFZIJL

(OR ANY OTHER INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER)

Eemshaven

Delfzijl

Eemsdelta

National CO2network




fields


National CO2network




fields


KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR INDUSTRIALTRANSFORMATION1. Sufficient potential measures to fully decarbonize industry and even

partly transform to negative emission capacity (BECCS options)2. Several transformation pathways offer more competitive production

(technological learning / innovation = key) and higher resource efficiency.

3. Mixtures of key measures (circularity, new inherently more efficient processes, green energy carriers, green feedstock, CCS) most promising.

4. Optimal solutions sector and location specific over time.5. One investment cycle to go for many players; good planning is key!6. CO2 tax, innovation programs per sector (and EU collaboration),

alignment with energy transition19

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION

RESERVE MATERIAL

THE IPCC 1,5 OC REPORT: EMISSION PATHWAYS

22

IPCC 1,5 OCREPORT: ILLUSTRATIVEPATHWAYSACCORDINGTO DIFFERENT ACTORS & MODELLINGFRAMEWORKS

23

THE COSTS OF THE (GLOBAL) ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION; IPCC WORDING:• Costs of CO2: estimates for a Below-1.5˚C pathway range from:

• 135–5500 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2030• 245–13000 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2050• 420–17500 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2070• 690–27000 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2100

• Models that encompass a higher degree of technology granularity and more flexibility in mitigation technology portfolio, often produce relatively lower mitigation costs.

• Ranges explained by: methodologies, projected energy service demands, mitigation targets, fuel pricesand technologyavailability. The characteristics of the technology portfolio, particularly in terms of investment costs and deployment rates play a key role.

24

25

Source: K. Blok et al. The 2015 Energy Productivity and Economic Prosperity Index

EXAMPLE FROM INDUSTRY; PUMPING & ELECTRIC MOTORS

26

[Worrell, Utrecht University]

HOPED ECONOMICS HYDROGEN PRODUCTION (NATURAL GAS BASED PRODUCTION: 2-3 EURO/GJ)

1.4

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 (0.3)

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

ElectrolysisExemplary cost build-up of hydrogen

(EUR per kg, electricity @ 25 EUR/MWh)

2.2

0.3 0.8

0.1 0.2 0.2(1.7)

2.2

0

1

2

3

4

Biomass gasificationExemplary cost build-up of hydrogen

(EUR per kg, torrefied biomass @ 8.3 EUR/GJ)

Source: Rabobank/NIB H2 roadmap, van Wijk, 2017However, electricity now some 50 Euro/MWh, surpluses of power minimal during short periods, and infrastructure costs not yet included.

NO REGRET OR SCENARIO DEPENDENT OPTION?

29

Option AOption COption GOption B

Goal

For 2020

Abatementoptions

Infrastructure

CO2

Energy modelBiomassElectricity

H2Fossil fuels

NO REGRET OPTIONS / SCENARIO DEPENDENT

30


For 2020

Scenario X

Scenario Y

For 2030

Option A1Option FOption J

Option C2

Option A1Option C2Option ROption F

NO REGRET OPTIONS / SCENARIO DEPENDENT

31

2030Option

A1Option FOption JOption

C1

Option A1

Option C1

Option ROption F


Option A2

Option R1

O ti

Option A2

Option C2

Option R1

Option F1

Option A2

Option J1

Option F1

Option D

2020 2040 2050Option

A3Option J2Option

F2Option

D1Option

A3Option J2Option

D1Option

G1Option

A3Option

C3Option

R2Option

F2

Option A3

Option R2

Option F2

Option HOption

A3Option

R2Option

F2Option

Similar strategy

Different strategy

Climate neutrality, circular economy and energy transition as opportunities for EU basic industries

19 February 2019 | Brussels

EP-ITRE Workshop: Just energy transition, opportunity for EU industries, the role of hydrogen in the future and the example of energy transition in Germany

Stefan Lechtenböhmer, Wuppertal Institut

A non-fossil basic industry is possible

Deep decarbonisation of materials production processes works via

Direct and indirect electrificationCCU/S and BiomassCircularity

This means: Break through

technologies need to be developed and invested under high risks

Infrastructures for huge amounts of renewable energies or CCS and cirular economy need to be in place

Cost structures in processing industries may change significantly (which may lead to material substitution etc.)

Government risk taking and an active industrial policy with a clear focus on the role and function of regions are core needs.

steel25%

cement19%

plastic5%

paper4%

alumi-nium3%

other44%

Industrial carbon

emissions: 10 Gt CO2

5 basic materials are responsible for 20% of global GHG emissions

Three pathways to net zero GHG emissons forEU steel, cement, chemistry production (2050 vs. baseline)

19 February 2019

Circularity and reduced (primary) demand

Break-through and RES electricity

CCS / CCU

19%

48%

44%

64%

5%

26%

Source: Material economics, Wuppertal Institut,IES, 2018

500 Mt CO2

Close to Zero CO2

Stefan Lechtenböhmer - ITRE-hearing 2

Three pathways to net zero GHG emissons forEU steel, cement, chemistry production (2050 vs. baseline)

19 February 2019

Circularity and reduced (primary) demand

Break-through and RES electricity

CCS / CCU

19%

48%

44%

64%

5%

26%

Source: Material economics, Wuppertal Institut,IES, 2018

500 Mt CO2

Close to Zero CO2

Stefan Lechtenböhmer - ITRE-hearing 3

Reframing the industrial innovation system: From technology focus to an integrated value chain focus.

19 February 2019 Stefan Lechtenböhmer - ITRE-hearing 4

Sour

ce: W

esse

ling

et a

l. 20

17

Presenter

Presentation Notes

EPIs are part of avalue chain, which is liner here but shuld and will increasigly be circular They have several characteristics which all do not really indicate that the traditional settings in these sectors are partcularly prone to innovation (big exemption chemicals) To spur innovation in these crucial sectors (because of emissions but also because material properties will determine muhc of future innovation) we the REINVENT projects tries to reframe these sectors and take a much broader perspective a value chain or material cycle perspective

Steel value chain

Steel – from sector to value chain perspective

Hot & cold rolling

(154 Mt)

Manufacturing

Consumption / UseStock

Recycling (51 Mt + 18 Mt

production scrap)

Secondarysteel making

(61 Mt)

Primary steelmaking (101 Mt)

Mining of ore, coal, lime

Steel sector180 Mt CO2

33% Construction25% Metalware/tubes22% Cars/transport20% Machines, other

Scrap trade

30 Mt export40 Mt import

15 Mt CO2

15 Mt net exports in traded goods (cars, machines)

40 Mt CO2

78% Construction12% Machines/

products10% Cars/transport


Steel value chain

Steel – Innovation fields along the value chain

Hot & cold rolling

Manufacturing


Recycling


Primary steelmakingMining of ore,

coal, lime

Steel sector

Break-through


Closed recycling loops

Material efficiency& design for re-use and recycling

Renewable electricity

Service life extension & product service efficiency

Service demand reduction

Energy efficiency


Steel value chain

Steel – Fields for Intervention

Hot & cold rolling

Manufacturing


Recycling


Primary steelmakingMining of ore,

coal, lime

Steel sector

Break-through


Closed recycling loops

Material efficiency& design for re-use and recycling

Renewable electricity

Service life extension & product service efficiency

Service demand reduction

Energy efficiency


Green energy supply(e.g. Carbon floor price w. BTA, ETS, Investment & planning support for infrastructures (electricity and hydrogen))

Support circularityimprove value chains, support circular technology & business cases

Create demand (e.g. quota or standards for sustainable materials, green public pro-curement, GHG taxation of materials)

R&D & Investment support for break through processes & green energy infrastructures (e.g. Carbon CFDs, Innovation funds...)

Really goes to zero carbonInnovativebut very long term oriented and not the only project in steel industryNeeds public support (R&D, Infrastructure for green electricity and hydrogen)Potentially re-configures the steel value chain (e.g. future exports of green iron instead of ore, challenge for existing primary smelters, possible future for small steel sites)

Hybrit. A project by Swedish SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall



Industrial trans-

formation (Co-evolution with energy

system trans-formation)

Climate policyParis agreement

Difficult to decarbonise sectors

EU mid century low emission strategy

NDCs

Energy policyEnergy transition (expansion of renewable electricity generation)Electrification of heat, transport, processesEnergy infrastructures & Winter packages

Industrial policyEU-Re-Industrialisation

policy / Int. trade policy / EC Communication Sept.

2017

Resource policy

EU-Circular Economy package

....

Research&innovation

RDD&D-Policies9th FRP, ETS

Innovation FundsJEDI, Mission

Innovation

Structural policyin heavily industrialised regions: Concepts for regional industrial decarbonisation (innovation,

infrastructure, cluster formation)

An integrated climate and industrial polcy is needed

A new paradigm of industrial policy would best be

Clearly target orientedtowards sustainability and deep decarbonization as core long term targets

Integrating policies for climate, energy, innovation and ressource efficiency with trade, growth and structural policies

And including all steps of the value chain and all societal stakeholders

EU flagship mission oriented R&D programme for low-carbon and circular processes in EEIs and adequate support for market introduction.Strategic alignment of the EU‘s energy and industry transitions (i.e. ample and competitive supply of low-carbon electricity/hydrogen to EEIs) Financing mechanisms for high CAPEX low-carbon investments (possibly including early replacement of existing assets)Strategic industrial low carbon infrastructure planning and development (for regional and transnational industry clusters / projects of common interest)Smart regulation for market creation for low carbon products/materials and integration with material efficiency and circularity (procurement, standards etc.)Continued support for energy intensive basic industries to safeguard competitiveness during the transition

6 recommendations for a comprehensive climate, energy, innovation and industrial policy strategy

Sourec: IT50 consortium, modified


Thank youFor your attentionSee our related projects: www.wupperinst.org www.in4climate.nrw www.reinvent.eu http://re-industrialise.climate-kic.org ECF/IT50

1119 February 2019 Stefan Lechtenböhmer - ITRE-hearing

http://www.wupperinst.org

http://www.in4climate.nrw

http://www.reinvent.eu

http://re-industrialise.climate-kic.org

The role of hydrogen in energy flexibility, availability, security,

and decarbonisation

Paul DoddsUniversity College London

Presented at the ITRE Workshop, EU Parliament, Brussels, on 19 February 2019

My background

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

PJ

Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity Natural GasHydrogen Oil Products Other Renewables Manufactured fuels

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Hydr

ogen

cons

umpt

ion

(PJ)

2050

Service

Industry

Transport

Residential

Electricity

Does hydrogen have an important future energy role?

What is the role of hydrogen in a cost-optimal system in 2050 with an 80% GHG target? UK example – 26% of final energy consumption in 2050.

Hydrogen

4

What about across Europe?

JRC-EU-TIMES model, for the “CAP” scenario with an 80% GHG target across the EU. In 2050:

• ~1000 PJ hydrogen in heavy industry.

• ~500 PJ hydrogen in transport (mainly buses; some trucks and cars).

• No other hydrogen consumption for building heat.

• Hydrogen accounts for ~40% of excess electricity through power-to-gas.

5

Fuel cell cars are finally being commercialised

6

• The first models are now available to buy today in Europe.• Large-scale production has started in the last couple of years, which will

greatly reduce costs and spur innovation.

Hyundai ix35: 101 kW Toyota Mirai: 113 kW

Other markets for fuel cells

7

Will hydrogen compete with battery vehicles?

• The IEA have historically been pro-electrification.

• Hydrogen advocacy has ramped up, with several McKinsey-backed reports.

• The Hydrogen Council has attracted a wide and enthusiastic membership.

• There is a lack of credible alternative studies of hydrogen potential, particularly globally.

KPMG Automotive Executive Survey 2019

71% in Europe; particularly high at CEO level

8

Hydrogen-powered vehicles

• Cars have a fuel tank, fuel cell and electric motor.• All commercial vehicles are hybrids, with battery

packs of various sizes.• No exhaust emissions.• There are many possible designs, including plug-in

hybrids.

9

Vehicle cost of ownership, excluding taxes

Dodds, P. E. and Ekins, P. (2014) A portfolio of power-trains for the UK: an energy systems analysis. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 39(26):13941–13953.

It is very difficult to identify the “best” low-carbon powertrain

• Costs of many technologies are uncertain, and hydrogen and fuel cell technologies are close to being least-cost – hydrogen is used in many sectors and the overall cost differences are small.

• Non-cost issues such as vehicle range, refuelling time and loss of space in houses are important and consumers will pay a premium where necessary.

• There is an innovation race between technologies, with an uncertain outcome if we do not choose to pick what we believe will be winners.

Dodds, P. E. and Ekins, P. (2014) A portfolio of power-trains for the UK: an energy systems analysis. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 39(26):13941–13953.

10

Hydrogen for heating

11

Heating is by far the largest global market for fuel cells at the moment – supplied with natural gas

Is Europe at the forefront of hydrogen and fuel cell innovation? Consider patents.

Global shift from focus on fuel cell design…

…to integration of H2FC into transport and other products

But Japan and the USA, and now Korea, are leaders in patents.

Fuel cells

Application of hydrogen and fuel cells to transport

12

CHP Vehicles RefuellingJapan 181,500 900 cars 78

Germany ~1,000 100 cars, 14 buses 22China n/a 90 cars, 40 buses 4

US 0.7 MW 331 cars, 33 buses 87South Korea 177 MW 71 cars 7

UK ~10 42 cars, 18 buses 14

Is Europe at the forefront of hydrogen and fuel cell innovation? Consider deployment andgovernment support.

Deployment to Sep 2016

CHP Vehicles RefuellingJapan £500–1,400 per unit £107m £45m

Germany € 10,200 / kW €8m for trains €350mChina ? £23–58k per vehicle £500k per station

US up to $3,000 / kW $8k per vehicle$0.50 / gallon H2

$100m in California

South Korea $31m total £20kper vehicle ?

UK n/a £2m for cars£2.8m for buses £5m

Governmentsupport in 2016

13

Hydrogen for heating in the UK

• Business-as-usual option for homeowners with natural gas heating.

• Is it politically feasible to decarbonise heating without decarbonising the gas networks?

• Would we use gas boilers, or fuel cell micro-CHP, or hybrid heat pumps?

• The UK is investing €35m in feasibility studies.

14

Fuel cell micro-CHP reduces peak heat pump load

Energy security implications of hydrogen

• How might hydrogen and fuel cells affect energy security in the UK energy system?

Conclusions:• Using hydrogen would not greatly change

energy security, as measured by various indices.

• Using hydrogen could reduce the impacts of volatile energy import prices – hydrogen is much cheaper to store than electricity.

• Diversity is a much cheaper strategy than energy commodity independence.

• Forward planning would be needed to ensure a diverse hydrogen production portfolio.

15

Hydrogen sustainability

Terminology that is gradually being adopted:• “Green” hydrogen: renewable, low carbon• “Blue” hydrogen: low carbon, non-renewable• “Brown” hydrogen: high carbon, non-renewable

• In Europe, green hydrogen schemes include:– CertifHy – EU certification scheme– TŰV SŰD – German– CEP – German– AFHYPAC – French– DECC – UK (abandoned)

• Electricity has had the same challenge for 20 years, yet some issues have still not been overcome (e.g. different treatment of green and blue?)

16

Thank you for listening

Contact me: [email protected]

Download the four White Papers:http://www.h2fcsupergen.com/our-

work/whitepapers/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.h2fcsupergen.com/our-work/whitepapers/

Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, Secretary General19/02/2019, ITRE Workshop

EP, Brussels

Looking at Germany as an example

3

Germany will need significant renewable energy imports

Source: BMWi Energiedaten 30.07.2018 and FEV Europe GmbH

Reduction of primary energy usage below 2000TWh until 2050 not likely

Increase of production of renewable energy above 2000TWh also not likely due to

− Land usage and social acceptance of wind farms

− bioenergy limited if produced sustainable

Germany will need transportable (liquid) renewable energy carriers0

5001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.5005.000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Prim

ary e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n / T

Wh

Energy situation GermanyPrimärenergieverbrauch AußenhandelssaldoPrimary energy usage Foreign trade balance

Energy scenario for Germany today

4

Renewable energy storage

Source: FEV Europe GmbH

Energy scenario for Germany 2050

5

H2

H2

Imported energy must be:

- stored

- distributed

- sold to customers

- used by customersGrid and electricstorage

Imported energy can be:

- Hydrogen

- Methanol

- E-Fuels (Fischer-Tropsch)

- others

~300 TWh

~300 TWh

~1500 TWh

~200 TWh

Source: FEV Europe GmbH: Zero CO2 mobility conference 2018

Challenging assumption: 600TWh renewable electricity in Germany

Electricity & hydrogen are best used from domestic supply

6

PtX is a key element of energy revolution establishing a circular economy for CO2

Storage of domestic excess renewable energy from fluctuation of wind and solar power

Re-electrification in times of calm darkness

Germany will depend completely on renewable energy, though domestic resources will not suffice

Import of chemical carriers of renewable energy

− Low density of H2 and CH4 requires liquefaction or large gas tanks on vessels or pipeline diameters

− PtL requires more energy but drop-in fuels could reduce net CO2 emissions of the entire fleet

PtL enables energy transport over long distances.

Source: https://globalsolaratlas.infom https://globalwindatlas.info/ and FEV Europe GmbH

https://globalsolaratlas.infom/

https://globalwindatlas.info/

We need: European Hydrogen Backbone

7

Salt caverns for hydrogen storage

8

RES Import: Europe-North Africa Backbone

9

Natural gas pipelinesHydrogen pipelines

Where to start? - The Netherlands

10

Existing gas pipeline

Retrofitted compressors

New hydrogen pipeline

Industrial cluster

Hydrogen storage in salt cavern

• Low caloric gas pipelines will become available, because the Groningen gas

field has to reduce production to 0 in 2030

• 1 Transport pipeline capacity about 15 GW

• New hydrogen pipeline connections to offshore wind farms

• Connections to Germany (Ruhr-area, Bremen-Hamburg and Belgium

(Antwerp, Zeebrugge)

• European connections to France, Austria, Italy, etc.

40 billion € for the coal transition

11

12

Contacts

Hydrogen Europe

Avenue de la Toison d’Or 56-60 E-mail: [email protected]

1060 Brussels Tel.: 0032 2 540 87 75

Belgium www.hydrogeneurope.eu

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.hydrogeneurope.eu/

Phasing out coal from the electricity generation sector in Germany

Brussels,19.02.2019, Rafał Bajczuk

Plan of presentation

1. Germany’s energy policy

2. Coal-exit

3. Impact

1. Goals of Germany’s energy transition

Energy generation Energy consumption GHGemmissions

Renewables Energy efficiency Climatepolicy

Electricity Final energyconsumption

Primaryenergy

Electricalenergy

2020 35% 18% -20% -10% -40%

2030 50% 30% -55%

2040 65% 45% -70%2050 80% 60% -50% -25% -80-95%

1. Goals of Germanys Energy transition

1. Environmental aspects Creating an energy supply system that is environmentally compatible and protects natural habitat.

2. Nuclear energyphase-out Switching off the last nuclear power plants at the end of 2022.

3. Affordability Competitiveness Maintaining affordability of energy and ensuring Germany's competitiveness.

4. Sector couplingand digitisation Unlocking the potential of efficient sector coupling and digitisation for a successful energy transition

5. Research and Innovation Fostering forward-looking innovations for the restructuring of the energy supply.

6. Investment GrowthJobs Retaining and creating jobs in Germany and laying the foundations for sustainable prosperity and quality of life.

7. Security of supply Efficiently covering Germany’s energy needs at all times.

8. Grid expansion Expanding and modernising grids to meet demand.

Source: Sixth "Energy Transition" Monitoring Report "The Energy of the Future„ 2018

1. How is Germany accomplishing its goals?

6.2

15.2 15.96.3

9.4

17.0

31.5

36.0

11.5

18

30

35

50

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 Ziel2020

Ziel2025

Ziel2030

Renewable energy share of gross final energy consumption

Renewable energy share of gross electricity consumption

to 45

Source: German Environment Agency - Umweltbundesamt

1. What about the climate policy?

751

563

375

427333 313

284

193 200

164

166 168

132

89 93

79

67 66

1,251

911 907

,0

,200

,400

,600

,800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Ziel2020**

Ziel2030**

Ziel2040**

Ziel2050**

Energy Industry Industry* Transport Households Commercial/Insti tutional Agr icul ture Waste and Waste Water Other Emissions*

substantial greenhouse

gas neutrality

Source: German Environment Agency - Umweltbundesamt

Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents

1. CO2 emmissions from electricity generation

156,9 150,7

118,5

71,1

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

400,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Other

Waste

Oil

Natural gas

Hard coal

Lignite

326,8

285,2

Source: Federal Ministry For Economic Affairs And Energy, Energy Data: Complete Edition, August 2018

2. Coal – exit


0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2022 2030 2035/38

LigniteHard Coal

Power plant capacity in GW

3. Impact on the electricity mix


Lignite; 24,10%

Hard Coal;

13,90%

Nuclear Power; 13,30%

Natural gas;

8,40%

Wind power; 20,40%

Biomas; 7,40%

PV; 8,40%

Hydro; 3,20%

Other; 0,91%

Electricity mix 2018 Electricity mix 2035

Renewable

energy; 60%

Natural gas; 40%

3. Impact on CO2 emmissions

Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (2016). Climate Action Plan 2050

Area of action

1990(in million tonnes

of CO2-equivalent)


of CO2-equivalent)


of CO2-equivalent)

2030(reduction in percent compared to 1990)

Total 1248 902 543 to 562 56 to 55Energy sector 466 358 175 to 183 62 to 61

Buildings 209 119 70 to 72 67 to 66Transport 163 160 95 to 98 42 to 40Industry 283 181 140 to 143 51 to 49Agriculture 88 72 58 to 61 34 to 31Subtotal 1209 890 538 to 557 56 to 54Other 39 12 5 87

3. Impact on power prices


Source: Levelized cost of electricity. Renewable Energy Technologies, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, 2018

3. Impact on European energy and climate policy

Source: Last Gasp. The coal companies making Europe sick, November 2018

Thanks

RafałBajczuk

“Energiewende” in Germany- phasing out coal from the electricity generation -

Jürgen-Fr. Hake, JülichBrussels, February 19th, 2019

Transformation – “Energiewende”Top Priorities• Mitigation of GHG

emissions• High share of REN• Highest efficiency in all

sectors.Conversion Sector• Electricity, heat and fuels• 80 % REN in electricity

generation

European Dimension

Present Electricity Generation

Braunkohle in DRevier Vorräte Beschäftigte Strom-, FW Brutto-StromRheinland 31,0 Mrd. t 8.961 80,4 Mio. t 74,5 TWh (NRW)Lausitz 3,1 Mrd. t 8.278 58,6 Mio. t 34,6 TWh (BB)Mitteldeutschland 2,0 Mrd. t 2.414 16,4 Mio. t 31,8 TWh (S)Total 36,1 Mrd. t 19.852 156,9 Mio. t 150 TWh

• Brutto-Stromerzeugung in D: 648,4 TWh, davon Braunkohle 22,7 % (150TWh), Steinkohle 16,5 %.

• Kohlequalität variiert.• Ein Ausstieg aus der Braunkohle erscheint kurzfristig problematisch,

perspektivisch aber möglich.

ProblemsGeneration• Reduced technology portfolio• Managing volatility / capacity and …Grid• Delays in grid restructuring• Subsurface cables / costEnd-use• Efficiency• Alternatives for energy intensive industries

Public acceptance still high, but NIMBY effects

“Kohle-Kommission” - Questions• Was bekommen die

Kohleregionen?• Wie wird Strukturwandel

abgesichert?• Neue Arbeitsplätze für

Kohlekumpel?• Wie wird der Ausstieg

organisiert?• Was passiert bis 2030?• Was kosten die

Stilllegungen?• Wann ist endgültig Schluss?/FAZ, 18. Januar 2019, p. 23/

„Kohle-Kommission“ – Results• Schrittweise Reduzierung der Kohleverstromung bis Ende

2038; Monitoring der Umsetzbarkeit• Begrenzung der Strompreise: Zuschuss auf die

Übertragungsnetzentgelte o.ä. sowie zusätzlicheEntlastung energieintensiver Unternehmen

• Gewährleistung der Versorgungssicherheit u.a. durch denAusbau von Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung und neuenGaskraftwerken sowie die Modernisierung der Stromnetzeund die Überarbeitung des Steuersystems

• ‚Proaktive Strukturentwicklung‘ in den Revieren durch dieWeiterentwicklung zu zukunftsfähigen Energieregionen(u.a. neue Wertschöpfungsketten und Infrastrukturen; 40Mrd. Euro vom Bund)

Abschlussbericht (01/2019)

20. Februar 2019 Seite 8

“Kohle-Kommission” – First Reactions

FinancialCompensation

“Länder fordern bis zusechzig Milliarden

Euro, der Bund plantmit viel weniger”

/FAS 18. Nov. 2018

FinancialCompensation

“Länder fordern bis zusechzig Milliarden

Euro, der Bund plantmit viel weniger”

/FAS 18. Nov. 2018

“In der Koalition Ärger über dieErgebnisse der Kohlekommission”

/FAZ 14. Feb. 2019, p. 19/

“In der Koalition Ärger über dieErgebnisse der Kohlekommission”

/FAZ 14. Feb. 2019, p. 19/

In the Nutshell• Stakeholder representation• Parliamentary involvement• Financial commitment• Structural change

In the Nutshell• Stakeholder representation• Parliamentary involvement• Financial commitment• Structural change

Conclusions & OutlookAnalysis• Studies from major stakeholders• “Energiewende” is feasible, but …• Public acceptance matters• European dimension important

New Role for Natural Gas• Increasing market share• Baltic Sea Pipeline II• New LNG terminals

monitoring, checkpoints, learning, … most relevant!

“Europa braucht in Zukunft viel mehr russisches Erdgas, dadie Produktion in den Niederlanden in den nächsten Jahrenstark abnehmen wird und Norwegen […] keine Steigerungzugetraut wird. Darüber hinauswird noch zusätzliches Gas

gebraucht, um Atom- und Kohlestrom zu ersetzen.”/FAZ 16. Feb. 2019, p. 26/

“Europa braucht in Zukunft viel mehr russisches Erdgas, dadie Produktion in den Niederlanden in den nächsten Jahrenstark abnehmen wird und Norwegen […] keine Steigerungzugetraut wird. Darüber hinauswird noch zusätzliches Gas

gebraucht, um Atom- und Kohlestrom zu ersetzen.”/FAZ 16. Feb. 2019, p. 26/

• Climate change• Energy security• Climate change• Energy security

The End!Questions?

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