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The Employment Landscape of Rural OregonA Report from the Oregon Employment Department
Damon Runberg, Regional Economist
Oregon’s economy is currently near full employment after recovering from the recession over 4 years ago
0.0%
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Seas
onal
ly A
djus
ted
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Tota
l Non
farm
Em
ploy
men
t
Employment Unemployment Rate
However, the recovery from the Great Recession has been uneven15 of Oregon’s 23 rural counties remain below peak.
Rural Oregon
100%
Metropolitan Oregon 112%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
104
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148
Perc
ent o
f Pre
viou
s Pea
k Em
ploy
men
t
Months Since Previous Peak
Rural Oregon, for the purposes of our report, included any county characterized as “nonmetro” in federal data sources.
Defining Rural Oregon by County
Baker
Benton
Clackamas
ClatsopColumbia
Coos
Crook
Curry
Deschutes
Douglas
Gilliam
Grant
Harney
Hood River
Jackson
Jefferson
Josephine
Klamath Lake
Lane
Lincoln
Linn
Malheur
Marion
MorrowMultnomah
Polk
Sherman
Tillamook
UmatillaUnion
Wallowa
Wasco
Washington
Wheeler
Yamhill
Urban or Metro
Rural or Nonmetro
Oregon has 23 rural (nonmetro) counties
13 urban (metro) counties.
Rural Oregon had 244,000 jobs in 2018 …about 13 percent of statewide employment.
Defining Rural Oregon by County
Baker
Benton
Clackamas
ClatsopColumbia
Coos
Crook
Curry
Deschutes
Douglas
Gilliam
Grant
Harney
Hood River
Jackson
Jefferson
Josephine
Klamath Lake
Lane
Lincoln
Linn
Malheur
Marion
MorrowMultnomah
Polk
Sherman
Tillamook
UmatillaUnion
Wallowa
Wasco
Washington
Wheeler
Yamhill
Urban or Metro
Rural or Nonmetro
~76% private-sector jobs
~24% government jobs
12 of the top 15 highest rates of unemployment are ruralBut, levels of unemployment are at or near historically low levels
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
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12%
14%
16%
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20%
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(sor
ted
by h
ighe
st c
urre
nt u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e)
Unemployment Rates in Oregon Counties Current Rate and Max for 2007-2009 Recession, Seasonally Adjusted
Current Recession Max Lowest since 1990
Job expansion most notable along the Columbia River, the Willamette Valley, and Deschutes County
Bulk of jobs lost were from high-wage industries, but early jobs gains were concentrated in lower-wage industries
-9,010
-6,129
-11,374
13,721
10,114
6,016
-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
Lower-wage industries
Mid-wage industries
Higher-wage industries
Net Change in Number of Jobs
Rural Oregon Lost Many High-Wage Jobs in RecessionNonmetro Counties Private-Sector
Job Loss and Job Growth*
2Q2009-2Q20162Q2007-2Q2009
Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records
*after nearly seven years of recovery
+
+
+
Job recovery in rural communities slower due to industry composition
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Private sector
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Financial activities
Information
Mining, logging, and construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Leisure and hospitality
Public sector
Rural Percentage Point Difference from Urban Industry Employment Concentrations
How Does Rural Oregon Compare with Urban Oregon?
An aging workforce leading to more retirements and workforce challenges
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10%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
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100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Perc
ent o
f Rur
al O
rego
n W
orkf
orce
Rural Oregon's Workforce Much Older Today
55 and Older
25 to 54
24 and Younger
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics
Replacing retiring workers a challenge with slower population growth
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
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16%
18%
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EELE
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OSSH
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ANGR
ANT
5-ye
ar P
opul
atio
n Ch
ange
Slower projected job growth in rural communities, but opportunities will abound do to retirements and churn
17%
20%
22%
24%
25%
25%
27%
28%
30%
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34%
39%
40%
83%
80%
78%
76%
75%
75%
73%
72%
70%
68%
66%
61%
60%
0% 100%
Southeast Oregon
South Coast
Northeast Oregon
South Central Oregon
Columbia Basin
Northwest Oregon
Douglas County
Rogue Valley
Mid-Valley
Columbia Gorge
Lane County
Portland Tri-County
Central Oregon
Share of Total Regional Job Openings
Most Job Openings Occur Due to Replacement, 2014-2024Growth Openings Replacement Openings