the emerging markets weekly one less worry

EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH 12 January 2012

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 38

THE EMERGING MARKETS WEEKLY One less worry

Investor perceptions on recession risks have been further eased by the flow of data from US and China Moreover while concerns over contagion from the euro area will likely linger the recent strong bond and bill auctions there still seem likely to be used as a cue to put cash to work in EM The supply in both external and local EM bond markets is picking up holding back a larger rally

Macro Outlooks

Emerging Asia More signs of export stabilisation 7 December trade reports from Emerging Asia indicate momentum in exports is stabilising in line with Global PMIs Next week we forecast Chinarsquos Q4 GDP growth will moderate to 85 on the back of weaker investment and industrial production

EEMEA Inflation drifting upwards 9 We construct an inflation surprise index using z-scores for various EEMEA regions It shows that more upside surprises than downside surprises have emerged which we attribute to general currency weakness across the region

Latin America La Nintildea El Nintildeo and ldquoEl Muchachordquo 11 US-Iran tensions and La NintildeaEl Nintildeo weather patterns are affecting LatAm economies La Nintildearsquos effect on soybean and corn prices partially compensated for Argentinarsquos crop losses but continued dry weather is a risk

EM Corporate Credit The January effect in action 13 We attribute the rally in risky assets over the past month to seasonal trends However by the end of Q1 cash will have been depleted and spreads rallied Even if data remain strong upside surprises are likely to be scarcer

Strategy Focus

Asia-Pacific FX Trades thoughts and forecasts 14 We initiate a short AUDKRW recommendation and maintain our short AUDBRL long SGD basket and long MYRTWD recommendations We close our short EURAUD option trade recommendation

Asian sovereigns Stirred not shaken 17 We have a constructive view on Indonesia credit and expect it to outperform We believe Philippines will continue to trade defensively We are neutral on Sri Lanka credit

Indonesia We recommend 5y buying INDOGBs 21 Given the governmentrsquos issuance plans and the expected 2012 budget deficit we recommend 5y INDOGBs in Q1 as net issuance at the front end is expected to be low

Venezuela Supply is coming early than expected 23 Given supply surprises we are turning marginally more defensive We still recommend PDVSA bonds relative to the Republic and the PDVSA17N is our favourite pick

EM Views on a Page 2

EM Dashboard 25

EM FX Views on a Page 26

EM Credit Portfolio 28

EM Local Bond Portfolio 29

Data Review amp Preview 30

FX Forecasts and Forwards 36

Official Interest Rates 37

What we like

FX Short AUDBRL

Local bonds

Long SA R157 Receive MXN 1y1y TIIE Long Jun 14 Mbonos

Weekly EM Asset Performance

EM FX09

1314

17

2027

30

17

-05KRWUSDTWDUSDRUBUSD

MXNUSDCLPUSDZARUSDTRYUSDINRUSDBRLUSD

EM Rates-11 bp-2 bp-2 bp-1 bp

2 bp5 bp

13 bp12 bp

0 bp

-31 bpHun 5yr IRSBraz Jan 14SA 2yr IRSPol 5yr IRS

Mex TIIE 5yrCZK 5yr IRS

Indo 5yr GovKor 2yr IRS

CLP 2yr IRSIndia 2yr IRS

EM Credit-31 bp-9 bp-7 bp

-1 bp-1 bp

1 bp1 bp

44 bp

-61 bp

11 bp

Hun 5yr CDSRus 5yr CDSSA 5yr CDS

Turk 5yr CDSBraz 5yr CDSMex 5yr CDS

Phils 5yr CDSArg 5yr CDS

Indo 5yr CDSVeni 5yr CDS

EM Equity0809101011

2223

5930

00KospiBolsa

SampPFTSE JSE

JSE All shareSensex

Turkey ISEBovespa

Russia RTSShanghai

Note EM Assets Performance charts as of 12 January 2012 Source Bloomberg Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital | The Emerging Markets Weekly

12 January 2012 2

EM VIEWS ON A PAGE

What happened

Markets Global risk markets remain well supported this week with data from the US and China easing investor concerns of a recession EM currencies have appreciated on the week with the high betas outperforming (BRL INR TRY) In EM credit Venezuela has been underperforming on news that it will be issuing new debt earlier than expected

Global data Spain sold EUR10bn worth of debt far more than expected which represented a significant portion of this yearrsquos total issuance at yields below 4 Italy raised EUR12bn at 273 for 1y and 164 for 6m well below the rates last year Chinarsquos December CPI came in at 41 higher than we and the market expected The data support our view that the PBoC will maintain its prudentneutral monetary policy stance for now while watching closely for downside risks to growth We reiterate our view that RRR cuts should be regarded as a fine-tuning tool used to stabilise liquidity Chinarsquos December M2 growth rebounded sharply to 136 yy from 127 in November This has contributed to the better-than-expected December PMI (503 vs consensus 491) and may lead to a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP

Monetary policy

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 60 as expected by the consensus but against our view of a 25bp cut Our base case remains 25-50bp of cuts but these will be a function of inflation prints the external environment and FX movements Poland also kept its policy rate unchanged this week at 45 as expected by us and consensus

Hungary Hungarian assets (FX credit and local yield) have rallied as the market is pricing in an increased likelihood that a deal with the IMF and EU can ultimately be secured Following our recent visit to Budapest we remain uncertain about the governments plans and hence do not think there is enough evidence yet to turn bullish Hungarian assets Even at best we think negotiations with the IMF and EU are not likely to be smooth

What we think

EM assets The wall of worry is shrinking as investor perceptions of recession risks are further eased by the flow of data from the US and China Moreover while concerns in EM over contagion from the euro area will linger the recent strong bond and bill auctions in the latter are still likely to be used as a cue to put cash to work in the former The supply in both external and local EM bond markets is picking up holding back a larger rally

What we like

Asset class Trade Rationale

Local Bonds

Long SA R157 receive TIIE 1y1y (Jun14 Mbonos)

We recommend longs in South Africa where economic fundamentals are strong and yields are high we select the belly of the curve which is not as exposed to global beta risks In Mexico we continue to think that there is margin for disappointment in Q4 growth which could push short-end rates lower as recent data have been weaker than expected With the market pricing 80bp of cumulative tightening in 24m and considering that risks to global growth are tilted to the downside we recommend 1y1y forward TIIE receivers and Jun14 MBono longs

FX Short AUDBRL

The position has attractive carry and should benefit if the BCB as we expect is not as dovish as previously thought while we see risks of a more aggressive easing cycle from the RBA if the global PMI does not improve We also favour the BRL due to its proximity to the US and are cautious about the AUD as we think it under-prices the tail risk of a hard landing in China

Figure 1 The AUD and BRL have been closely linked until recently

Figure 2 We believe Banxico will cut rates in Q1 12 supporting yields

060

070

080

090

100

110

120

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1204

045

05

055

06

065

07

AUDUSD BRLUSD

-060

-040

-020

000

020

040

060

080

100

1m 3m 6m 9m 12m

Priced in by Market BarCap Forecast

Source Bloomberg Barclays Capital Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 3

EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK

One less worry The wall of worry is shrinking as investor perceptions on recession risks are further eased by the flow of data from US and China Moreover while concerns in EM over future contagion from the euro area will likely linger the recent strong bond and bill auctions in the euro area still seem likely to be used as a cue to put cash to work in EM The supply in both external and local EM bond markets is picking up holding back a larger rally

What happened The wall of worry is shrinking with investor confidence on growth outside the euro area supported by stronger-than-expected US consumer credit data and Chinese monetary aggregates This confidence could be further reinforced when the PBoC cuts the required reserve ratios again (BarCap is forecasting four RRR cuts this year) Investors appear to be converging on a less bearish global growth view with equity prices continuing to climb and commodity prices gaining traction as well Moreover in the euro area markets the recent positive Spanish bondItalian T-bill auction results indicate that either sovereign debt market concerns among investors are improving or more likely in our view the 3yr LTRO money is being put to work In equity markets the bad news continues European bank share prices have fallen further since the New Year (and the drop in a large Italian bankrsquos share prices after its announcement of a rights issue can also be viewed as negative news inasmuch as it signals the lsquocostrsquo of hitting the CT1 targets through raising capital as opposed to the alternative of deleveraging) However the correlations between the different regional bank share prices have weakened

What we think The global backdrop is still looking helpful for EM assets and we would not advise shying away from putting on bullish trades Note that we are not downplaying the euro area growth challenges or the indirect impact of bank deleveraging on EM (pressures that are likely to be most intense in H1) From an EM stand point however we are starting the year

Koon Chow +44 (0)20 7773 7572

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Piotr Chwiejczak +44 (0)20 3134 4606

piotrchwiejczakbarcapcom

Andreas Kolbe +44 (0)20 3134 3134

andreaskolbebarcapcom

The wall of worry is shrinking

Figure 1 Commodities are taking out the lsquorecession risk premiarsquohellip

Figure 2 hellip and bank share prices outside the Euro zone are gainning traction as well

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11

Copper Aluminum Oil

1month agoIndex of commodity

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


EM EMU US

1month agoIndex of bank share prices

Source Barclays Capital Source Barclays Capital

Rising global risk appetite converges with helpful EM

positioning technicals


12 January 2012 4

with helpful cash levels at EM Funds Moreover prices in EM local and external bonds have been generally stable in the past month despite the above-mentioned positive global developments Turkey and Hungary (for idiosyncratic reasons) have seen yields and credit spreads widen There is probably an element of expected and delivered new bond supply which has kept a rein on local and external government bond prices in EM Moreover in local markets one could also argue that some deflation premium has been stripped away hence offsetting the positive impact of greater demand by foreign investors However these factors should slow but not stop the rally of local and external government bonds

At the end of 2011 investors faced a dilemma either buy 3M T-bills in the periphery of the euro area at high single-digit yields (around 5) risking a possibility of default or take a currency risk and invest in similar bills in EM space The LTRO operations reintroduced by the ECB and the pass-through of this LTRO liquidity to yields in peripheral Europe in the past month have helped to deal with this dilemma There are no longer lsquocheaprsquo short tenor euro area bills to potentially compete away investor flows from EM From a different angle the bull steepening in the euro area helped by the LTRO is also a helpful factor for general risk premia by easing some investor fears on debt sustainability and banking sector health

For investors who do not share our optimism about a positive start for 2012 or who simply want to trade less global market directionality ndash we recommend select FX and credit RV trades In particular we see value in positioning for outperformance of oil-related assets These include 1) selling protection on a basket of EEMEA oil producers including Russia Dubai Kazakhstan versus central European names including Romania Czech Republic and Croatia 2) being long ZAR FX short TRY We have strong idiosyncraticbottom-up reasons for recommending being short AUD FX versus BRL and KRW (expressing a view on relative monetary policy dovishness) and also recommend being short CZK vs ILS We see good mileage out of oil-RV trades as these would benefit from a scenario of stronger global growth or in a scenario of oil supply disruptions (eg due to the recent developments in Nigeria) The risks on the latter as warned by BarCaprsquos commodity strategists have been steadily moving higher

What we like Credit The generally supportive market environment has provided a fertile ground for primary market activity particularly in LatAm The supply at the long end of Colombias curve has created some pressures and we have reached the target on our previously

The bull steepening of yields in the euro area periphery is supportive for EM FX and

fixed income

Figure 3 LTRO support for European fixed income has been powerfulhellipfor now taking out one source of contagion

Figure 4 hellipBut EM local bonds and credit have not yet rallied Expectations of supply may be weighing

IrelandAustria Portugal

ItalySpain

France

Belgium

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2y bond yields ()

2s10

s sp

read

(bp

)

Last

1month ago

BRL

TRY

KRW

ZAR

HUF

PLN

MYR

IDRTHB PHP

RUB

MXN

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 4 6 8 10 12

5y Local Bond Yield

5y C

DS

spre

ad

Last

1 month ago


Oil-related RV trades in EM make sense ndash both in FX and

credit space


12 January 2012 5

recommended trade to sell Colombia 41s and to buy Brazil 41s We now think current levels of the Colombia 41s are attractive and hence recommend closing this trade We also highlight that Colombia will use parts of the bond sale proceeds to purchase bonds with maturity that range from 2013 to 2027 excluding the 10y bonds This will be beneficial for the two benchmark bonds in our view We also close our Sell Brazil 2021 basis Following last weekrsquos supply on the 10y sector the CDS has outperformed the bond correcting the dislocation We recommend turning tactically more cautious on Venezuela and reduce our overweight in our credit portfolio On Tuesday January 10 the National Assemblys finance committee gave authorization to the executive to sell VEB712bn ($165bn) in debt this year without needing to return to parliament to set conditions for each sale This approval was earlier than expected and after this move we believe that authorities will try to issue debt soon If supply materializes earlier than expected this may create some volatility and could weigh on Venezuelarsquos spreads In EEMEA Hungary has remained in the spotlight and while the new drive by the Hungarian government to secure an IMFEU programme has shifted the riskreward to being less negative we think there is still too much uncertainty about the governmentrsquos actual intentions to turn bullish and hence we retain a slight Underweight In a negative scenario external debt would likely be hit first and most severely in the event that Hungary fails to secure an IMFEU programme and runs into serious problems Also even in a benign scenario in which IMFEU support can be secured eventually (after a likely bumpy and prolonged negotiation process) the heavy issuance plans would likely limit any significant rally in the longer-term

In FX bullish EM trades likely have more traction now and we recommend being long RUB KRW and BRL The favourable seasonal trends in Russiarsquos current account surplus should help the RUB strengthen versus both USD and EUR We recently initiated a new RV recommendation (see Asian FX focus piece) and see value in being short AUDlong KRW via 1m forwards AUDKRW spot is up near multiyear highs and we expect this to correct near term Korean exports were up an impressive 125 yy in December and we think the Bank of Korea is reluctant to see further won weakness given already high import price growth We see risks that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could engage in a more aggressive easing cycle than the market anticipates We also have high conviction in being short AUD long BRL targeting 180 from the current 185 Latest available data suggest positive positioning technicals on BRL (in contrast to AUD) The tactical short USDlong MXN we recommended in our previous EM Weekly has almost reached our 1360 target hence we favour reducing exposures We close our bearish HUF options trade as global risk appetite and investor hopes for an IMFEU programme could push forint stronger first creating better levels to go short

Mexican local rates contrary to FX has more room for a rally (compress) we think The local market continues to price cumulative tightening of 45bp80bp in 12m24m while we think that Banxico would cut the policy rate by 25bp in Q1 and by another 25bp in Q2 bringing the overall rate down to 400 Recent data indicate that cyclical activity is decelerating and we still see potential for short-end rates to rally Stay received 1y1y Tiie In Asian local rates we have a general bias towards bullish-steepeners reflecting our call on policy and regional risk premia However this should also benefit from the sharp recent rallies that we have seen in short tenor-developed market rates (especially in Europe) Our highest conviction steepeners are in India (1yr forward starting 2s5s) China (ND IRS 2s5s) and Singapore (1yr forward starting 3s10s) Our recommendations on Indian and China rates are base on our forecasts on monetary policy accommodation via CRR and base rate cuts (India) and RRR cuts (China) The SGD steepener recommendation is based more on our view of broader international curve trends in particular the US and benefits from

The cheapening in Colombia 41s has created value and we thus

no longer recommend selling versus Brazil 41s

We are tactically more cautious on Venezuela as earlier-than-

expected supply may create volatility

RUB KRW and BRL look like good destinations for bullish

FX trades

Front end of the Mexico rates curve still looks attractive to be

longreceived

Asian curve steepeners are supported by global rates trends


12 January 2012 6

positive carryrolldown In EEMEA SA bonds (R157) should enjoy stronger foreign investor sponsorship The yield levels and the absence of major macro balance sheet challenges should mean that South Africa likely reaps the lionrsquos share of investment flows that would otherwise have gone too but have decided to avoid the other benchmark names in EEMEA where the FX risks are high We close our 1y 2y forward pay recommendation in Turkey as the recent rally in the Turkish lira is likely to be cited as a reason by the monetary authorities to be more accommodative in their open market operations There may be better levels from which to be paying Turkish rates

Long South Africa medium tenor bonds (R157)


12 January 2012 7

OUTLOOK EMERGING ASIA

More signs of export stabilisation December trade reports from Emerging Asia indicate momentum in exports is

stabilising in line with Global PMIs

Next week we forecast Chinarsquos Q4 GDP growth will moderate to 85 on the back of weaker investment and industrial production

EM Asia exports Stabilisation is in order Regional exports are starting to stabilise in line with global PMIs So far December exports in China Korea and Taiwan ndash the regionrsquos three largest exporters ndash have risen on a 3m3m saar basis Exports have stabilised along with indicators of global manufacturing activity which bodes well for industrial output in the coming months

China exports grew 134 yy in December in line with expectations and likely supported by pre-Chinese New Year shipments Import growth surprised to the downside at 118 yy We believe the weak growth in the value of imports was probably driven by generally lower prices for commodity imports The timing of Chinese New Year (23 January 2012 versus 3 February in 2011) suggests that export growth is likely to slow markedly in January but largely due to base effects We continue to expect export and import growth to moderate to 10 yy and 13 respectively in 2012 from 203 and 249 in 2011 However recent data support our view that the Chinese economy remains on track for a soft landing with external weakness posing the largest downside risk

Last week Korearsquos December exports surprised to the upside rising 125 yy The improvement in growth was due to an increase in shipments of vessels automobiles and electronics particularly semiconductors Electronics exports rose a further 22 mm sa in December extending Novemberrsquos 2 gain in line with the recent improvement in global IT indicators For example DRAM prices have risen to USD119 per 1GB DRAM DDR3 chip their highest level since late May This resilience in exports is underpinning the tight labour market particularly in the manufacturing sector which continued to add jobs in December Indeed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 31 for the third straight

Rahul Bajoria +65 6308 3511

rahulbajoriabarcapcom

Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom

Export momentum is stabilising in EM Asia in line with

global PMIs

The moderate slowdown in Chinarsquos exports is in line with our

soft landing scenario

Figure 1 Export momentum stabilising in EM Asia

Figure 2 China likely to record a trade deficit in Q1

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60

EM Asia Exports ( 6m6m saar)

Global PMI (3m lead RHS)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Trade balance (RHS) Exports Imports

yy USDbn

Source Haver Analytics Barclays Capital Source CEIC Barclays Capital

Korean exports have also stabilised and may pick up in

coming months given improving global IT indicators


12 January 2012 8

month in December Stripping out net job creation from agriculture and public administration private sector employment climbed 01 mm sa in December (the same as November) reflecting the net addition of 20k jobs This is below the average of about 40K net jobs added in the non-agriculture private sector this year reflecting the gradual slowdown in the economy

This leads us to believe that the Bank of Korea will keep the policy rate unchanged at 325 through Q1 12 Given high household debt and concerns about the cost of living the central bank is likely to preserve its limited policy buffer unless growth appears likely to fall below 3 and job losses mount in our view Ahead of National Assembly elections in April we expect the government to rely more on fiscal policy to support the economy Indeed the parliament has already passed a 53 increase in expenditure for the 2012 budget and ministries have pledged to front-load 60 expenditures in the first half of the year

Exports in Taiwan are also stabilising but at a much more subdued pace December exports surprised to the downside again rising just 06 yy On a seasonally adjusted mm basis exports were flat in December against expectations for a gain after Novemberrsquos 29 mm sa decline Even so export momentum improved to -06 3m3m saar compared with an average of -14 in the preceding five months This is in line with the improvement in global IT indicators including the US ISM new orders index and DRAM spot prices

The week ahead China Q4 GDP India December WPI Next week the focus remains on China which will be the first country in the region to release Q4 11 GDP data Given moderating industrial activity and investment growth we believe GDP growth will slip to 85 but it remains on track to bottom out in Q1 12 This is likely to pave the way for further monetary easing The spotlight is also likely to be on India which is expected to release its December WPI inflation figures We expect wholesale prices to rise 74 yy down significantly from 91 in November The decline is being driven by softer food prices and a high base However core inflation is likely to remain sticky which may deter RBI from cutting rates in the 24 January credit policy review Finally a manageable inflation outlook against a backdrop of external headwinds should allow the central bank in Philippines to lower interest We expect a 25bp cut at next weekrsquos policy meeting and another 25bp reduction in Q2

Resilience in labour market reduces need for immediate

policy support in Korea

Figure 3 Resilient labour market in Korea

Figure 4 Subdued recovery in Taiwanrsquos exports

14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-113750

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

KR Services (ex-public) sa thousand jobsManufacturing jobs sa thousand jobs (RHS)

-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90

Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-1120

30

40

50

60

70

80

Taiwan Exports ( 3m3m saar)ISM Mfg New Orders Index (sa 3mma)

Source CEIC Barclays Capital Source Haver Analytics Barclays Capital

Export stabilisation more subdued in Taiwan

Next week Focus on Chinarsquos Q4 11 GDP report


12 January 2012 9

OUTLOOK EMERGING EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

Inflation drifting upwards We construct an inflation surprise index using z-scores for various EEMEA regions

The surprise index shows that more upside surprises than downside surprises have emerged which in our view can be attributed to general currency weakness across the region

South Africa rates are expected to remain unchanged at 55 notwithstanding higher inflation tendencies

Inflation surprises influence rate expectations Having discussed the divergent path of monetary policy over recent weeks we focus on the magnitude of the upside and downside surprises in EEMEA inflation We believe this is critical as these surprises tend to influence inflation expectations and consequently spur rate speculation Using z-scores1 we construct an inflation surprise index for various EEMEA regions and find that for those EEMEA economies currently experiencing rising inflation (Turkey South Africa Czech Republic and Hungary) they are also experiencing upside inflation surprises (Figure 1) If this trend continues it is bound to have a policy effect eventually For countries with falling or mixed inflation path downside surprises still dominate but were much lower in the past 2 months and therefore could be losing steam (Figure 2) Clearly general currency weakness in the region is one of the primary causes for the reversal of trend

South Africarsquos recent upside surprises in CPI can mostly be attributed to rising food prices (111 yy currently) due to the escalation in grain prices and a weaker currency Next week we forecast inflation to rise to 62 yy (61 yy previously) but caution that upside risks exist in the form of food prices and underlying inflation As per our recent publication (South Africa Economic Insights Underlying inflation and why it matters 12 December 2011) core inflation is forecast to reach 55 yy by end-2012 (from 39 yy currently) due to the resilient nature of consumption growth We believe that this could result in

1 A surprise index measures z-scores of CPI (the difference between the actual and consensus divided by the range)

Gina Schoeman +27 11 895 5403

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Figure 1 Upside surprises in rising EEMEA CPI paths

Figure 2 Downside surprises for declining EEMEA CPI paths

-04

-02

00

02

04

Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11

z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

Note Results comprise CPI in Turkey South Africa Czech Republic and Hungary Source Haver Analytics Barclays Capital

Note Results comprise CPI in Israel Russia and Poland Source Have Analytics Barclays Capital

EEMEA economies with rising inflation paths are also

experiencing upside inflation surprises

Food price pressures are causing consistent upside CPI surprises in

South Africa no rate increase expected this month


12 January 2012 10

further upside CPI surprises in 2012 Next week also marks a rate decision in South Africa We believe that similar to the November MPC statement the rhetoric in next weekrsquos statement will be that upside risks to the inflation outlook still exceed the downside risks to economic growth That said global uncertainty remains meaningful enough and as a result we expect policy rates to remain on hold at 55 (as at the November 2011 MPC meeting) Barring any significant downside risks to the economy it is only by year-end that we expect a process of policy normalisation to begin

In Turkey CPI has surprised to the upside for five consecutive months These upside surprises appear to be coming from higher-than-expected food inflation (122 in December) and second-round effects driving core inflation higher (81 yy) A weaker currency is also driving up prices and is likely to lead to elevated inflation expectations over coming months

Hungary CPI has been rising for four consecutive months and has surprised the consensus to the upside in both October and November One of the main factors in the rising inflation trajectory (and upside surprises) has been currency depreciation reflecting financial market instability Looking to the December CPI print to be released today (Friday 13 January) we expect a slight rise to 44 yy (from 43 yy in November) While only a modest move upwards we caution that the January CPI print is likely to rise significantly due to hikes in VAT and excises and currency weakness While we believe Hungary will succeed in reaching an agreement for IMFEU support we think the path will be quite bumpy leaving currency weakness a threat to near-term inflation

In contrast EEMEA economies that have been undergoing a downward trend in inflation (Israel Russia and Romania mostly) have experienced downside inflation surprises consistently since August 2011 For Russia CPI has surprised the Bloomberg consensus to the downside for two consecutive months (December inflation measured 61 yy) owing mostly to food disinflation (39 yy in December) While this remains the key factor behind a lower CPI core inflation has been helpful tracking lower to 66 yy in December In Israel inflation has surprised to the downside for three consecutive prints (26 yy in November) driven mostly by slowing food inflation and decelerating core inflation Next week the December print for CPI is expected to show continued deceleration to 25 although the consensus is 24

In Serbia inflation continues to decelerate in December it fell by 1pp to 70 mainly driven by a record decline in food prices Together with weak growth this creates more room for the NBS to cut its policy rate - we expect a 50bp cut next week to 925 With the exception of its October print Romania CPI has surprised to the downside consistently since May 2011 Most recently the December print for CPI measured 31 yy against a consensus of 33 yy The NBR has cut 50bp and further cuts are likely in coming months

Despite a downward inflation trajectory for much of 2011 we consider Poland as lsquoin-the-middlersquo Since September 2011 (when CPI troughed at 39 yy) inflation has picked up to 43 yy and 48 yy in October and November respectively These were also upside surprises to the Bloomberg consensus and this could continue when it is released today (Friday 13 January) as we expect an above-consensus December CPI print of 47 yy (versus 46 yy for consensus) This pattern led the NBP to hold rates unchanged last week However these recent increases are not expected to continue due to base effects and by January 2012 we would expect CPI to slow down steadily

Currency weakness is the main factor behind Hungaryrsquos rising

inflation path

EEMEA economies with disinflationary trends are mostly

measuring downside inflation surprises

Serbia and Romania CPI is falling rapidly and central banks are

cutting rates

Poland rates held on hold as inflation fluctuates


12 January 2012 11

OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA

La Nintildea El Nintildeo and ldquoEl Muchachordquo US-Iran tensions and La NintildeaEl Nintildeo weather patterns are affecting LatAm economies

La Nintildearsquos effect on soybean and corn prices partially compensated for Argentinarsquos crop losses but continued dry weather is a risk In Venezuela higher oil prices should help President Hugo Chavezrsquos election campaign though this might not be enough

In Brazil weather conditions pose inflationary risks in Q1 12 In Mexico the slowing economy boosts the case for easing despite recent inflation surprises

The main drivers of commodity prices this week were in Latin America For the second year in a row the La Nintildea weather pattern has hit southern Brazil and Argentinarsquos Pampas hurting corn and soybean crops Further north El Nintildeo has caused flooding and drought in Mexico pushing tomato prices up and ratcheting rates markets higher on Monday after the December CPI release On the energy front Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently visited a number of LatAm countries just as crude prices are soaring amid tensions between Iran and the US

The second year of La Nintildea has brought very dry hot weather to the Pampas The lack of rain has meant significant corn crop losses though the impact on soybeans should be more muted This week however the pace of damage to crops was reduced by showers in the provinces of Cordoba Buenos Aires and Santa Fe where 75 of grains are planted

We have revised our crop forecasts accordingly (Argentina Let it rain January 11 2012) We now forecast Argentinarsquos corn production at 189mn (previous 29mn) and soybean production at 46mn tons (previous 52mn) The USDA has lowered its forecasts to 505mn for soy (previous 52mn) and 26mn tons for corn (previous 29mn) We think further downgrades to USDA forecasts are likely particularly for corn Notably the fact that Argentina and southern Brazil are now price makers in grain markets mostly in soybeans helps farmers to hold on during harsh weather as lower grain supply is offset by price increases For example since December as crops were being revised lower soybean prices rose 55 and corn prices 74 on average The negative impact of La Nintildea on Argentinarsquos exports caused us to increase our dollar shortage estimate for Argentina from $85bn to $11bn in 2012 The reaction of the administration to the bleak external outlook continues to be to deepen FX and trade controls rather than to allow faster depreciation of the official exchange rate (Argentina The whole is more than the sum of scattered FX regulations January 11)

Iranian President Ahmadinejad attended Tuesdays inauguration of re-elected President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and visited former president Fidel Castro in Cuba He also visited Ecuador and Venezuela The Iranian leaderrsquos visit came as risk in the Straits of Hormuz (through which 90 of all Persian Gulf oil must pass) appeared to be escalating and tighter USEU sanctions were imposed on Teheran The jump in crude prices on rising geopolitical risks could aid Chavezrsquos presidential campaign which is expected to need significant resources to increase its poll showing against a highly organized opposition Indeed on January 10 the National Assemblys finance committee authorized the executive to issue VEB712bn ($165bn) of debt this year This approval came earlier than expected and we think the authorities will try to issue debt soon We expect issuance of about USD40bn with a coupon slightly below 120 and maturities in 2029 andor 2032 That said we still believe markets are overpricing the likelihood that President Chavez will be re-elected

Sebastian Brown +1 212 412 6721

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Guilherme Loureiro +55 11 3757 7372

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Sebastian Vargas +1 212 412 6823

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The main drivers of commodity prices came

from LatAm this week

La Nina and El Ninohellip

hellipand Iranian President Ahmadinejad visited the region


12 January 2012 12

For countries that care about inflation the rise in food prices is a challenge In Brazil weather conditions should be the key driver of inflation in 1Q 2012 The heavy rains in early January have already begun to affect the supply of some agricultural goods And although it is still too early to gauge the impact on inflation in the months ahead some preliminary reports for January inflation already reflect this trend

Inflation measured by the IPC-S (weekly CPI index of the Getulio Vargas Foundation) for example picked up to 093 4w4w in the first week of the year from 079 in late December with the food group explaining nearly 60 of the inflation pick up This weekrsquos IGP-M inflation report (for the first 10 days of January) also showed agricultural wholesale group accelerating to 082 mm (from -051) while the consumer prices component rose to 056 mm from 033 Soybeans and corn prices were the upside highlight in the PPI component while food inflation (specifically tomatoes potatoes and beans) explained nearly 100 of the inflation increase in the CPI component

The Brazilian states of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais (both in the southeast) were hurt by strong rainfall but droughts are also affecting production of agriculture goods in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul (in the center of the country) and Parana and Santa Catarina (south) It is too early to estimate precisely the impact of weather conditions on inflation in the first quarter of the year We are holding to our call that the IPCA will reach 17 in 1Q 2012 (consistent with our 53 forecast for full-year 2012) For now the risks look balanced but tracking the month-to-month inflation readings will be important to gauging whether inflation could also surprise on the upside in 2012

Decemberrsquos CPI report in Chile reached 06 mm surprising a consensus expectation of 04mm The increase was driven mostly by food (07) housing utilities and fuel (11) and transportation services (12) But unlike Brazil food was not to blame for the surprise Foodrsquos 07 mm rise was only slightly higher than its 057 mm 2009-11 average On the other hand the 12 mm increase in transportation was more than twice the itemrsquos two-year average (046 mm) Although it will be important to closely monitor inflation as the Chilean economy slows the latest headline number was driven mainly by non-systematic factors and the price of oil As a result we stand by our view that todayrsquos 25bp cut by the Chilean Central Bank is the beginning of an easing cycle

Moving North Mexican December inflation was also driven by weather conditions The figure surprised on the upside printing at 082 mm with the main source of the upward surprise coming from non-core foods This segment was responsible for nearly 70 of the divergence from our forecast Perishable goods prices (led by tomatoes) picked up steam rising to 685 mm (from 161 in November) while meat and egg inflation was also strong at 270 (from 136) The former reflected mainly the impact of recent droughts in the north of Mexico and flooding in the south Despite recent stronger-than-expected inflation prints we are still of the view that with the economy slowing more sharply in Q4 2011 the case for easing in 1Q 2012 should now look more attractive to Banxico

In the Central America and Caribbean region the combination of higher food and oil prices is unfavorable The region is a net importer of energy which typically weakens fiscal and external positions and food price shocks have a significant impact on inflation and real exchange rates However declining food prices in recent months have been benefited El Salvador where inflation decelerated Our sole overweight in the region is Dominican Republic which also benefited from lower food prices in December with inflation ending 2011 at 78 still the highest in Central America

In Brazil weather conditions are key drivers

of inflation in Q1 12hellip

hellipand some inflation gauges are already providing some evidence

Heavy rainfall or drought could mean additional

inflation risk in Brazil

In Chile the price of oil pushed inflation higher in Decemberhellip

hellipbut weaker activity would imply more rate

cuts down the road

Mexicorsquos December CPI was hit by weather conditions

In Central America higher food and oil prices are never good


12 January 2012 13

EM CORPORATE CREDIT MARKET OUTLOOK

The January effect in action We attribute the rally in risky assets over the past month to typical seasonal trends

strong US economic data a stabilization in global economic data and investors deploying excess cash We expect these trends to remain over the coming weeks

However by the end of Q1 things should look different cash will have been depleted and spreads will have rallied Even if data remain strong expectations will have been raised making upside surprises scarcer Moreover we expect the deterioration in fundamentals to become clearer as the year progresses

Over the coming weeks EM corporate investors should continue to benefit from a gradual tightening in spreads after all current levels are hard to justify based on fundamentals Our USD EM corporate index currently trades at 530bp and we believe that fair value is about 80bp tighter

That said spreads are not ldquocheaprdquo they simply price in the balance between low default rates and significant macro risks Therefore an expectation of tightening is predicated as much on fundamentals as the view that macro tail risks will become less dominant

Indeed Europe is still the biggest tail risk and although we have concerns expectations are already very low 40 of the investors we polled late last year cited the European crisis as the biggest threat to EM valuations over the coming months Some modestly more constructive news on policy support coupled with incremental improvement in European sovereign fundamentals (see Italy Q3 government budget deficit data support view that country is on track to outperform 2011 target 11 January 2012) should be enough for to tilt the balance of pricing away from macro risks and towards fundamentals

EM corporate credit in particular has lagged global comparables ndash a simple regression against US HY suggests EM is about 50bp too cheap right now That said the longer-term outlook remains bleak and we continue to recommend investors position for spread widening after the short-term positives abate (see EM Corporate credit outlook No Shelter from the global storm 14 December 2011)

Aziz Sunderji +1 212 412 2218

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Justin Luther +1 212 412 3714

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Figure 1 The current rally can be explained by technicals and a stabilization in economic datahellip

Figure 2 hellip but the outlook beyond the short run is more concerning tightening lending points to rising defaults

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average Median

US HG avg spread change over tw o months prior (bp)

Credit m arkets tend to do well in Dec - Feb

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

CampI Net Tightening

Trailing 12m Global HY Default Rate ( rhs)

Note Based on data since 1991 Source Barclays Capital Source Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos


12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX

Asia-Pacific FX Trades thoughts and forecasts This is a shortened version of a report originally published on 9 January 2012

The recent bounce in global risk sentiment has seen Asian currencies outperform the EUR but underperform the AUD NZD and high yielding EM currencies broadly in line with precedent We initiate a short AUDKRW trade recommendation and maintain our short AUDBRL long SGD basket and long MYRTWD trade recommendations We close our short EURAUD option trade recommendation for a sevenfold profit Our long USDINR recommendation expired with a 20 profit while our short USDKRW option trade recommendation expired worthless For a more detailed discussion about the market conditions key technical and fundamental drivers in Asian FX markets please see our recent keynote publication Asian Local Markets 2012 Guide

Weaker correlations underperforming Asian currencies Two themes that have emerged early in the year are the weaker correlation between the euro (and assets tied to the eurozonersquos fortunes such as CE3) and US equities and Asian currencies underperformance vs AUD NZD and high yielding EM currencies (MXN BRL TRY) This broadly ties in with our view expressed in the 6 December 2011 Emerging Markets Quarterly that in a more constructive global environment Asian currencies will outperform the EUR but underperform G10 commodity and EM currencies backed by strong fundamentals and less interventionist central banks Figure 1 shows that when the VIX is reasonably low (blue shading) Asian currencies tend to underperform high-yielding EM currencies and in particular the AUD and NZD with Asian central banks typically intervening in the FX market to fade the pace of currency appreciation

Figure 1 Asia ex CNY lagging AUD NZD and high-yielding EM in recent weeks

070

080

090

100

110

Jan-2008 Oct-2008 Jul-2009 Apr-2010 Jan-2011 Oct-2011

VIX gt 40VIX lt 25Asia ex ChinaCE3 averageAsia ex ChinaOther EM high-yielder averageAsia ex ChinaAUD + NZD average

Asia underperforming

Source Bloomberg Barclays Capital

This departure from the simple risk-on risk-off mindset at times prevalent in H2 2011 will likely require more than a few decent PMIs to become permanent in our view particularly when key technical levels are hit At the very least markets will likely want to see evidence that eurozone sovereigns can finance themselves more cheaply given very large bond maturities in Q1 2012 We think the risk of a pull-back in global sentiment leaves EM currencies somewhat vulnerable although we would expect Asian central banks to provide some FX support In this scenario we forecast Asian currencies to outperform and we are

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Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

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Hamish Pepper +65 6308 2220

hamishpepperbarcapcom


12 January 2012 15

therefore keeping unchanged our EM Asia forecasts of modest currency appreciation in the next 1-3 months (please see Figure 2 below)

Figure 2 Barclays Capital FX forecasts FX forecasts Forecast vs outright forward

Spot 1m 3m 6m 1y 1m 3m 6m 1y

Asia-Pacific ex Japan (vs USD)

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76


Tracking our trade ideas ndash new trades Short AUDKRW

We are adding a 1-month short AUDKRW tactical trade recommendation AUDKRW is up 32 since mid-December to 1190 close to the post-1997 high of 1194 reached in October 2010 We expect this trend to correct near term Korean exports were up an impressive 125 yy in December and we think the Bank of Korea is reluctant to see further won weakness push up double-digit imported inflation We see risks that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) engages in a more aggressive easing cycle than the market anticipates We recommend being short AUDKRW via the 1m forward (entry 1181 target 1090 stop 1215 spot ref 1184)

Figure 3 Trade recommendations

Entry

Expiry closed Trade Ref fwd

ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades

AUDKRW 9-Jan-12 9-Feb-12 Sell AUDKRW 1m forward 1181 1159 1181 1181

AUDBRL 5-Jan-12 5-Apr-12 Sell AUDBRL 3m forward 191 na 191 188

Open trades

MYRTWD 6-Dec-11 6-Mar-12 Buy MYRTWD 3m NDF 953 na 953 951

SGD basket 6-Dec-11 6-Mar-12 Buy SGD vs a USD-EUR basket na na 1000 1010

Closed trades

EURAUD 08-Dec-11 9-Jan-12 Buy a 3m EUR putAUD call spread (strikes 129 and 125) and sell a 3m EUR callAUD put (strike 1435)

1325 1250 25bp 186bp

USDINR 06-Dec-11 6-Jan-12 Buy USDINR one-month NDF 5168 1099 5168 5272

USDKRW 06-Dec-11 6-Jan-12 Buy a 1x2 one-month USD putKRW call spread strikes at 1095 and 1070

1132 1352 18bp 0bp

Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 16

Tracking our trade ideas ndash open trades Short AUDBRL

We forecast BRL to rally on the view that the Banco Central do Brasil will not be as dovish as the market expects We also expect AUDBRL to fall due to Brazilrsquos closer trade links with a US economy that is outperforming its peers Indeed Brazilrsquos exports to the US are 10 of total exports vs 4 for Australia Moreover the BRL should benefit from rising oil prices given Brazilrsquos relative oil self-sufficiency compared to Australia (FX Focus Short AUDlong BRL 5 January 2012)

Long MYRTWD

We maintain our recommendation of being long the 3m MYRTWD NDF initiated on 6 December 2011 which is currently posting a 02 gain Malaysiarsquos economic outlook remains positive with a large pipeline of investment projects likely to support growth (Malaysia Political developments positive for medium-term outlook 9 January 2012) Taiwanrsquos export growth has slowed sharply and core inflation remained benign at 12 yy in December suggesting that the CBC has little room or incentive to allow TWD appreciation near term

Long SGD vs USD-EUR basket (60-40)

We maintain our recommendation of being long SGD versus a weighted USDEUR basket initiated on 6 December 2011 and which is currently up 12 The rise in Singapores CPI-inflation to 57 yy in December and likely rebound in GDP growth in Q1 2012 will see MAS favouring slow SGD NEER appreciation rather than a more dovish exchange rate policy in our view We estimate that the SGD NEER is currently trading 09 from the weak end of the MAS policy band

Tracking our trade ideas ndash closed trades Short EURAUD (taking profit)

We are taking profit on our short 3-month EURAUD option trade recommendation initiated on 8 December 2011 at a cost 25bp and sold for 183bp (a sevenfold profit) This trade was predicated on the view that the high correlation between the EUR and AUD would break down as ECB easing and euro weakness must be part of a solution to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis While we expect EURUSD weakness to extend in coming months we think the risk is biased towards AUDUSD also correcting lower

Long USDINR (expired)

Our long USDINR 1m NDF recommendation entered on 6 December 2011 expired for a 20 profit Weak domestic fundamentals and a paucity of portfolio inflows against the backdrop of subdued global risk sentiment saw the INR underperform its regional peers

Short USDKRW (expired)

Our short USDKRW option trade recommendation entered on 6 December 2011 for 18bp expired worthless


12 January 2012 17

STRATEGY FOCUS ASIAN SOVEREIGNS

Stirred not shaken This article is an excerpt from Asia Credit Outlook Bumpy Silk Road 6 January 2012

We have a constructive view on Indonesia credit and expect it to outperform We believe Philippines will continue to trade defensively We are neutral on Sri Lanka credit

Positioning Indonesia to outperform EM sovereigns We like long-dated Indonesian sovereign bonds such as the INDON rsquo38s We expect the sovereign to achieve IG rating from two out of three agencies in 2H 12 an event that should create incremental demand from IG-benchmarked investors We see value in front-end bonds but we acknowledge that liquidity is thin and execution can be challenging We expect the front and belly of the Indonesian curve to continue to trade at a premium to the Philippines partly due to onshore demand for the latterrsquos bonds However we expect the yield on longer-dated Indonesian bonds to compress gradually towards the levels of Philippines paper In 2012 we expect Indonesian sovereign credit to outperform other EM sovereigns

Philippines ndash defensive holding We like the belly of the curve given our expectation that onshore demand will remain robust As such we recommend being neutral on the liquid points (such as the PHILIP rsquo21s) on the curve and would look to add when new issues are launched The recently issued PHILIP rsquo37s provides an opportunity to pick up yield along the curve Overall we view the Philippines as a defensive holding

Philippine banks have reported steady declines in deposits in their foreign-currency deposit units (FCDUs) while peso deposits have been rising However in USD terms (using PHPUSD) FCDU amounts have risen (up 43 yy as at June 2011) At the same time the Philippinesrsquo net outstanding amount of USD-denominated bonds has shrunk by more than 4 yy driven by liability management exercises such as the buyback conducted in 2011 This implies that the demand dynamics from onshore banks will remain robust especially for the front and belly of the curve We believe this dynamic lends further support to our view of the Philippines as a defensive holding

Portfolio hedge We continue to recommend using high grade sovereign CDS to hedge Asia credit portfolios We like buying protection on China and funding via Korea at spread differentials wider than 15bp We have a positive view on Korea sovereign credit driven by the countryrsquos improved external position ndash progress has been made to reduce external vulnerability and mitigate roll-over risk on foreign currency borrowing

Indonesia sovereign eligible for Barclays Capital Global Aggregate index on another IG rating If Indonesia receives another investment grade rating the sovereigns USD bonds will automatically qualify for inclusion in the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Index but not for the US Aggregate index under current rules We expect the sovereign to receive a second IG rating in H2 12 which should pave the way for its inclusion in the Barclays Global Aggregate index

We estimate that cUSD15trn in funds are benchmarked to the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Index Inclusion in the Global Aggregate Index should provide some positive technicals for Indonesian sovereign bonds at least initially based on incremental buying of USD200-400mn by passive investors (our estimate assumes 20-40 of AUM benchmarked is passively managed) See Indonesia sovereign eligible for Barclays Capital Global Aggregate index on another IG rating 16 December 2011

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12 January 2012 18

Macro outlook Exposure to European banks not a macro concern

In aggregate Asia has much lower exposure to European banks than other emerging market regions We believe an orderly deleveraging by European banks (and potentially US banks) would not cause a significant disruption to lending or real activity in Asia as we would expect strong local and regional banks from Singapore Australia and Japan to step in (see Asian Banks European bank deleveraging in Asia 23 November 2011) Moreover most Asian governments have strong buffers in the form of low budget deficits and large FX reserves (except Sri Lanka and Vietnam) against a backdrop of healthy current account surpluses (except India Vietnam and Sri Lanka) and net positive international investment positions (except Korea Indonesia and India) In short Asian policymakers would be able to backstop sudden outflows if needed We have also seen an increase in swap lines agreements between Asian central banks that could be activated to deploy the regionrsquos massive reserves and mitigate the impact of outflows associated with bank deleveraging

Figure 1 External vulnerability indicators ( of GDP)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

CN TH MY IN KR PH VN LK ID

ST external debt Bond (foreign holding)Equity (foreign holding) Net FDICA surplus FXRNet

Note Short term external debt data is as at Q1 11 from World Bank Foreign holdings of local bonds are not available for China and Vietnam Foreign equity holdings data is not available for Sri Lanka and Vietnam Source CEIC BIS Barclays Capital

Weak global growth to weigh on Asian exports

Europe and the US remain important export markets for Asia ndash taking on average 30 of the regionrsquos exports Within Asia the most exposed to European growth from the export channel are Sri Lanka China India and Vietnam Based on our sensitivity analysis Singapore Malaysia Korea and Taiwan are the most susceptible to slowing US growth

Watching Chinese growth

The importance of China as an export destination has steadily increased Within the region Hong Kong Taiwan and Korea have the largest share of exports to China Indonesiarsquos reliance on China has risen both through direct exports and via Chinarsquos influence on global commodity markets (65 of Indonesiarsquos exports are commodities)

Deteriorating external environment poses risk to portfolio flows and credit spreads

Indonesia and Malaysia are susceptible to swings in portfolio flows Sri Lanka is vulnerable to the external funding environment because of upcoming foreign currency maturities Among the high yield sovereigns we think the Philippines is the best positioned for this scenario

Orderly deleveraging by European banks should not

create significant stress in Asia

Exposed to global growth

Chinarsquos increasing importance as a trading partner

Risk of reversal in portfolio flows


12 January 2012 19

Republic of Indonesia

Weight Commentary

Underweight

We have a positive view on the Indonesian sovereign (BB+ PosBa1 StbBBB- Stb) and expect its bonds to outperform other EM sovereigns in 2012 Fitch recently upgraded Indonesiarsquos ratings to investment grade We expect the sovereign to receive another IG rating in 2H 12 which would automatically qualify its bonds for the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Assuming benchmark buying by passive investors this could create incremental demand of USD200-400mn (c2 of outstanding bonds) External position Despite higher FX reserves (December 2011 USD110bn) and prudential measures to deter ldquohotrdquo money inflows since the global financial crisis the financial system remains vulnerable to risk sentiment given heavy offshore holdings of local-currency bonds and in the equity market The economy is also highly leveraged to commodity prices (65 of exports) In addition private sector foreign borrowing has been rising (on average 14 yy in 2011) Structural On the structural reform side the creation of the OJK (Financial Services Authority) and recent passage of the Land Acquisition Bill further underpin the sovereignrsquos positive ratings trajectory A slew of recent corruption scandals are concerning and appear to have had an impact on the presidentrsquos popularity which continues to fall Although we do not expect political instability these developments could dampen the reform agenda in the near term Towards the latter part of 2012 we believe the political focus will shift towards potential candidates for the presidential election in 2014 as President Yudhoyono is not allowed to run for a third term Supply outlook We believe the government will look to tap the USD bond market early this year The head of the MoFrsquos Debt Management Office has indicated that the sovereign will issue USD4bn in foreign currency bonds in 2012 This will include conventional dollar bonds cUSD1bn of dollar sukuks and we estimate USD500-700mn of samurai bonds As expected recent issuance was in the long end (30y) in line with the sovereignrsquos expressed intention to develop a full yield curve The policy bias remains strongly towards avoiding any bunching up of maturities In addition to sovereign issues we expect USD10-15bn of issuance from quasi sovereigns Pertamina and PLN Both have large capex plans and Pertamina also has a total of USD900mn of syndicated loans coming due in mid 2012 Valuations We are comfortable with the sovereignrsquos overall credit profile and expect its bonds to outperform the EM sovereign index in 2012 We prefer the long-dated part of the curve (such as INDON rsquo38s) We also see value in the 10y point at 60-70bp over the Philippines Although front-end bonds are cheap (INDON rsquo14srsquo15srsquo16srsquo17s) we acknowledge that the lack of liquidity makes it difficult to execute We expect the primary market to offer opportunities to add to holdings in 2012 Finally we suggest adding exposure via quasi-sovereigns such as PLNIJ at a spread of more than 130-140bp over the sovereign

Socialist Republic of Vietnam

Weight Commentary

Underweight

Within our EM Local Bond Portfolio we are underweight the Vietnam sovereign (BB- NegB1 NegB+ Stb) bonds a view driven by a combination of the macro backdrop and valuations External position Vietnam is not well positioned against a backdrop of weak global growth The economy is vulnerable via trade links and commodity prices We maintain our view that structural flows will more than cover the trade deficit however limited onshore confidence in the VND implies that these flows will not be fully reflected in foreign reserves in our view According to Le Xuan Nghia an advisor to the Prime Minister FX reserves were equivalent to about 75 weeks of import cover as of October 2011 ndash roughly USD15bn vs USD12bn at end-2010 Contingent liability Contingent banking sector liabilities also weigh on the Vietnam credit outlook Tight credit conditions against a backdrop of slowing growth have meant bank asset quality has deteriorated System-wide the NPL ratio rose to 33 in November from 2 at end-2010 Recent press reports have noted government plans to restructure and strengthen the banking system The World Bank is expected to support this programme according to recent press reports While we think a successful implementation of banking system reforms would be positive for the credit the current lack of transparency weighs on fundamentals Furthermore resolution of Vinashinrsquos debt restructuring remains a headwind in the near term Policy The policy focus remains to macro stability for the time being But we believe it is gradually shifting towards promoting growth as reflected by the 1 depreciation of the official VND rate in October and recent comments from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Selective easing is underway with the SBV encouraging banks to lower lending rates to SMEs and the export sector In our view the key risk for Vietnam is that the central bank eases too much too early (a repeat of 2010) Our economistsrsquo base case is for interest rate cuts of 200bp in Q1 and 100bp in Q2 Supply outlook We do not expect Vietnam to tap the USD bond market in 2012 The unresolved status of the Vinashin restructuring continues to weigh on investor sentiment Foreign currency borrowing will most likely be via official development assistance (ODA) or multilateralbilateral loans Valuations We believe current spreads on Vietnamrsquos sovereign bonds do not provide sufficient compensation for their volatility or limited liquidity Furthermore we expect headwinds in the near term ndash including a potential shift in policy towards growth despite continued high inflation contingent liabilities in the banking system and FX depreciation We recommend being underweight Vietnam The unofficial VNDUSD rate trades at a premium of 1 to the official rate In the near term we see a risk that the premium may increase given the rollover risk on USD loans This may lead to widening of Vietnam sovereign CDS The governmentrsquos bias in our view is to gradually depreciate the VND to support exports we forecast 5 depreciation in 2012


12 January 2012 20

Republic of Philippines

Weight Commentary

Underweight

The Philippines sovereign (BB PosBa2 StbBB+ Stb) remains a defensive investment within Asia in our view We believe its bond spreads reflect the strong external position and improved debt management But progress on structural reforms is required to boost the economyrsquos growth prospects External position The Philippines remains vulnerable to slowing global growth as it has a relatively high exposure to demand in developed markets and a lack of diversification in its export base Low-value-added electronics such as assembly and testing comprise 70 of the countryrsquos exports Recent growth prints already show a drag from net exports However the turnaround in US ISM new orders offers some encouraging signs Remittances remain a key pillar of support for the economy The Aquino Administration has made impressive progress on the sovereignrsquos debt dynamics We expect to see further progress as the sovereign continues to diversify funding instruments (such as GPNs RTBs) lengthen duration and reduce its reliance on foreign currency financing Fiscal position Government underspending has been a drag on growth PPP projects have been very slow to start ndash the first PPP project was only approved in December 2011 We expect government capex to rise as project details have now been delineated in the budget But a risk is that spending remains constrained given corruption-related fears Progress on structural reforms is important for the medium term President Aquino promised no tax increases in the first 12-18 months of his term As we draw close to the end of that timeline the focus remains on his ability to pass and implement structural reforms that boost revenues Successful passage of lsquosinrsquo tax legislation under discussion in parliament we think would be a clear positive for the sovereign credit profile given the structural boost to government revenue (approval expected by mid 2012) In the meantime we would look for evidence that the momentum in administrative reforms related to revenue collection does not fade in the coming year Other On the policy front the Presidentrsquos focus is increasingly shifting towards an anti-corruption platform (as evidenced by recent action against ex-president Arroyo) However there is a risk that political developmentsclashes involving the previous president distract the government from much-needed reforms In the near term the Philippines could enjoy a period of increased political stability given President Aquinorsquos strong mandate But the governmentrsquos popularity appears mainly tied to the personality of the President who can serve only one term (expires in 2016) which creates the risk of discontinuity Supply outlook The government plans gross overseas debt sales of USD225bn for 2012 compared with USD275bn realised in 2011 ndash the latter in line with our expectations and against planned issuance of USD325bn The governmentrsquos bias remains to reduce its reliance on foreign currency borrowing which to us suggests the potential for further GPN issues in 2012 However given attractive costs for dollar financing combined with the governmentrsquos desire to maintain a presence in the market we believe supply is likely to be balanced between USD bonds and GPNs Furthermore the Philippines has indicated it will issue bonds (balanced between offshore and local) and on-lend the proceeds to the Power Sector Assets And Liabilities Management Corp (PSALM) to refinance some of its PHP85bn (cUSD19bn) debt maturing in 2012 Following USD15bn of issuance recently we expect the sovereign to issue additional USD05-10bn during the rest of the year either via gross supply or during liability management exercises Valuations We like the belly of the curve given our expectation that onshore demand will remain robust As such we recommend being neutral on the liquid points (such as PHILIP 21s) on the curve and look to add when new issues are launched The recently issued PHILIP rsquo37s provide an opportunity to pick up yield along the curve Overall we view the Philippines as a defensive holding

Democratic Republic of Sri Lanka

Weight Commentary

Neutral

We have turned neutral on Sri Lanka (B+ PosB1 PosBB- Stb) We think the best of the credit story is behind us and do not expect the sovereignrsquos bonds to provide alpha for a sovereign portfolio External position The expropriation bill although a one-time exercise according to the government could be a source of concern for foreign investors regarding property rights Near term we think the billrsquos passage may dampen FDI and domestic investment sentiment Sri Lankarsquos balance of payments position remains vulnerable to swings in commodity prices Slowing global trade also poses downside risks to transhipment activity and exports (30-40 go to Europe) Overall we expect the 2011 BoP to be in deficit and recent commentary from the central bank indicates that FX reserves declined to USD6bn by end-2011 in line with our view (implying an import cover of four months) The latest reserve prints indicate that the foreign reserve position deteriorated significantly in NovDec in contrast with other countries in the region It is also worth noting that a significant portion of the countryrsquos FX reserves comprise borrowed funds (eurobonds IMF disbursements and foreign holdings of treasuries) The central bank governor has indicated plans to negotiate a follow-up surveillance programme with IMF We think this move is intended to bolster confidence among investors Supply outlook The governmentrsquos 2012 budget assumes LKR1753bn (cUSD15bn) of foreign financing (LKR55bn (cUSD05bn) is the foreign commercial component) We forecast the sovereign to issue at least USD1bn in 2012 with the proceeds used to repay maturing debt and obligations to the IMF We estimate that USD17bn of repayments are due in 2012 (including interest and principal on bonds loans and IMF dues which start in April 2012) Valuations We are more cautious on Sri Lanka and advise a neutral position in the near term Sri Lankan sovereign bonds are subject to gap risk because they are not very liquid Along the curve we like the SRILAN rsquo21s Recent data support our view that the external position remains vulnerable


12 January 2012 21

STRATEGY FOCUS INDONESIA

2012 borrowing requirements and financing sources we recommend 5y buying INDOGBs The Indonesian government plans to issue IDR2403trn of gross government bonds in local and foreign currencies We expect the 2012 budget deficit to be IDR104trn (13 of GDP) and believe the DMO will likely cut planned issuance in late 2012 We recommend 5y INDOGBs in Q1 as net issuance at the front end is expected to be low

Figure 1 Total financing needs and sources

IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240

Amortization (b) 1531

- External 473

- Government securities (including buybacks) 1057

- Domestic loan 01

Two steps loan (c) 89

Total financing needs (a) + (b) +(c) 2861

Financing sources 2861

Non-debt sources -95

Debt (Gross) 2956

- Govt securities 2403

- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10

Note Non-debt sources include privatisation asset management etc Source DMO Barclays Capital

We estimate INDOGB supply of IDR110-120trn 1y SPN supply of ~IDR45trn The Indonesian government plans to borrow IDR2861trn from debt and non-debt

sources in 2012 with a planned gross issuance for 2012 is IDR2403trn up nearly 18 from 2011 and net issuance is IDR135trn up 115 The DMO has announced indicative tenors for the whole year for local-currency issues along with the indicative amount for Q1 gross issuance of IDR532trn (net issuance IDR301trn)

In Figure 2 we show our expectations for the breakdown of gross government security issuance by instrument This is consistent with Indonesias stated debt management strategy of 1) increasing local currency bond issuance to reduce currency risk 2) expanding its range of debt instruments on the basis of cost efficiency and risk 3) maintaining sufficient liquidity in benchmark securities ndash conventional and sukuk bonds and 4) issuing retail bonds in the first quarter of each year

Expected features of local-currency government bond issues SPN issuance

We expect 1y SPN issuance to total IDR45trn ~IDR2trn in each of the 23 auctions We expect 3m SPN issuance to be IDR12-20trn (IDR05-10trn each auction) However given that 3m SPNs are issued to maintain the yield curve and not for deficit financing we expect outstanding SPNs to total IDR5trn at any point in time

Kumar Rachapudi +65 6308 3383

kumarrachapudibarcapcom




12 January 2012 22

As at the end of December 2011 IDR261trn of SPNs are scheduled to mature in 2012 Of this amount IDR2375trn are 1y SPNs implying net issuance of 1y SPNs of ~IDR21trn

IDR33trn of conventional INDOGBs mature in 2012 This implies that net supply in the 1y tenor excluding 3m SPNs will be negative at ~IDR12trn (IDR21-33trn)

Longer-dated bonds

We expect IDR110-120trn of INDOGB issuance in the benchmarks of 5y 10y 15y and 20y We expect the DMO to start issuing 2013 benchmark bonds during the last three to four months of the year and expect the bulk of issuance (~60) to occur in H1 12

As we expect the next policy move to be a rate cut (50bp in Q1 12) we think the DMO will look to issue more bonds in the front end (1y 5y) versus the longer end (15y and 20y)

The DMO is likely to issue IDR5-6trn of bonds at each auction We expect IDR3-4trn of 5y bonds and IDR2-3trn of 10y 15y and 20y bonds in each auction This year the DMO plans to issue only two longer-dated bonds at each auction (vs three in 2011)

Retail bonds

As per the auction calendar the DMO will issue IDR15trn of retail bonds (conventional and sukuk) with the bulk of issuance in Q1 in line with its debt management policy Note that IDR128trn of retail bonds mature in the first quarter

Figure 2 Gross issuance by instrument (IDR trn)

2010 2011 2012

Net issuance 912 1211 1350 Redemptions and buyback 707 836 1053 Gross government securities issuance 1619 2046 2403 of which BarCap estimate - Coupon GDS 721 445 989 483 1161 483 - Retail bonds 80 49 110 54 100 42 - Retail sukuk 80 50 73 36 50 21 - Zero coupon GDS (con T-bills) 298 184 400 196 450 187 - Zero coupon sukuk (Islamic T bills) 00 13 06 50 21 - Domestic sukuk + SDHI 189 117 156 76 240 100 - International sukuk 00 90 44 88 37 - International bonds 250 155 214 105 264 110

Note We expect external financing of USD4bn (see EM Asia Sovereign Credit Stirred not shaken 8 December 2011) We have converted to IDR using the governmentrsquos budget assumption of USDIDR of 8800 Source DMO Barclays Capital

Trading strategy ndash Buy 5y INDOGBs We continue to suggest investors position long in 5y INDOGBs in Q1 as net issuance at

the front end is expected to be low December inflation was a benign 38 yy ndash below the lower bound of BIrsquos 4-6 inflation target and our base case is that BI will cut the rates by 50bp in Q1 However if the IDR remains under pressure we think the central bank may lengthen the current pause in rates

Onshore liquidity is flush with banks depositing further at the overnight deposit facility recently Moreover with BI likely to issue only IDR8-9trn of SBIs this will probably increase banking sector liquidity further and help demand for front-end bonds Ample liquidity coupled with rate cut expectations makes front-end bonds attractive in our view


12 January 2012 23

STRATEGY FOCUS 4 VENEZUELA

Supply is coming early than expected This is a reprint of Venezuela Supply is coming early than expected January 11 2012

New bond supply may come to the market earlier than we originally expected we are turning marginally more defensive We still recommend PDVSA bonds relative to the Republic and the PDVSA17N is our favourite pick

On Tuesday January 10 the National Assemblys finance committee gave its authorization to the executive to sell VEB712bn ($165bn) in debt this year without needing to return to parliament to set conditions for each sale The bonds could be denominated in bolivars dollars or other foreign currencies committee chief Ricardo Sanguino said In December the National Assembly approved a limit on debt sales of VEB869bn for 2012 up 61 from 2011 Of this amount VEB258bn will help service debt this year and VEB172bn is to refinance current debt Sanguino said

This approval was earlier than expected After this move we believe that authorities will try to issue debt soon We expect issuance of about USD40bn with a coupon a bit below 120 and maturities in 2029 andor 2032

Yet the main source of volatility last year ndash and which is likely to continue throughout 2012 ndash was the political outlook particularly the bond supply profile being one of the biggest hurdles in investors minds While we have forecast a relative large supply for 2012 (USD12bn combined for VenezuelaPDVSA) given the lack of official communication it is difficult in our view to estimate how much of this is already priced in Generally investors tend to overreact to any announcements as the recent price action following the mentioned risk of imminent bond issuance seems to suggest Within this context we would be tactically more cautious and reduce overweight positions since we suspect that the flows may continue to be negative until supply materializes and is digested

Alejandro Arreaza +1 212 412 3021

AlejandroArreazabarcapcom

Alejandro Grisanti +1 212 412 5982

alejandrogrisantibarcapcom

Donato Guarino +1 212 412 5564

donatoguarinobarcapcom

The authorities will try to issue debt soon

While the rationale for our long is intact new supply has been a source of volatility

for the markets

Figure 1 PDVSA 14s has started to underperform

Figure 2 PDVSA17N still our favourite pick We prefer PDVSA over the Republic bonds

PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Feb 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11

bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life

Republic PDVSA Rec-adjusted-spread (bp)



12 January 2012 24

Furthermore we are of the opinion that the new developments in the Orinoco Belt projects which should start to increase oil production but not at the pace that the government is expecting are not priced in by the market For example on January 11 Bloomberg reported that TNK-BPs PetroMonagas venture with PDVSA plans to boost output of heavy oil 20 to 145000 barrels per day in 2013 Output may reach as high as 200000 barrels per day in the long term the Russian producer which is half-owned by BP Plc said We expect an increase of oil production near 300000 bd for the end of 2013

With that said we are not ready to move the credit to neutral since we see a few points that can mitigate the supply risk First valuations of the credit remain attractive VE27s are trading at about 14 one of the highest yields in EM and PDVSA bonds trade even at higher yields This should guarantee appetite from investors especially if external market conditions remain supportive Second as with the previous two issuances we expect a big proportion of the bonds (about 60) to be allocated to the public financial system and ultimately to the Venezuelan central bank mitigating the negative effects that the new supply will like have on PDVSA and Venezuela assets Third the early signals from the Exxon-PDVSA trial were positive and we expect a similar settlement from the World Banks International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) Note that we did not read too much into President Chavezs statement that he will not accept any verdict from the ICSID as he appears not to have a full understanding of the legal process Recent declarations made Tuesday by PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez fully support this view

In terms of bond allocation we remain long the short part of the PDVSA curve PDVSA17N is our favourite pick It is trading at about 751076 and our target remains 80 We would feel comfortable reducing some of the position on these bonds but remain overweight the credit looking to add into potentially cheaper new bonds

Oil production increases from new development projects may

be lower than expected

We are not moving the credit to neutral due to

attractive valuations

We remain long the short part of the curve PDVSA 17N

is our favourite pick


12 January 2012 25

EM DASHBOARD Alanna Gregory 212 412 5938 alannagregorybarcapcom

Description Entry date Entry Current Target Stop

PampL to target PampL to

stop Analyst

Credit (6)

Buy Egypt 5y CDS 06-Dec-11 520bp 635bp 675bp 575bp 067 Kolbe Moubayed

Long Qatar 42s 06-Dec-11 285bp 270bp 230bp 300bp 133 Kolbe

Sell RussiaKazDubai 5y CDS vs CroRomCzech 06-Dec-11 64bp 54bp 150bp 0bp 171 Kolbe

Sell the Russia basis ($15s 3y CDS) 06-Dec-11 -20bp -25bp -70bp 20bp 100 Kolbe

Long PDVSA 17 New 28-Apr-11 72 76 80 70 067 Arreaza Cruz Grisanti Guarino

Long Argentina EUR Warrant 06-Jun-10 605 105 12 8 060 Guarino

FX (10)

Sell AUDKRW 1m forward 06-Jan-12 1181 1188 1090 1215 363 Desbarres Verdi

Buy USD-EUR basket (60-40) vs SGD outright 06-Dec-11 100 1018 1035 985 052 Desbarres Verdi

Long ILS short CZK 06-Dec-11 502 522 54 509 138 Chow

Long MYR short TWD 3m NDF 06-Dec-11 953 947 98 945 165 Desbarres Verdi

Sell 3m ATMF USD callMXN put 06-Dec-11 1365 1357 - - - Melzi

Sell 3m ATMF USD callBRL put 06-Dec-11 179 179 - - - Melzi

Short basket long RUB 06-Dec-11 3578 3552 3462 37 061 Chow

Short TRY long ZAR 06-Dec-11 438 436 42 46 067 Chow

Long EUR short PLN 15-Nov-11 441 444 47 432 217 Chow

Long EUR short RON 15-Nov-11 436 435 45 429 250 Chow

Rates (15)

INR 1y fwd OIS 2s5s steepener 12-Dec-11 5bp 20bp 45bp -15bp 071 Rachapudi

HUF 3M T-bill (FX implied rates financed) 06-Dec-11 250bp - - - - Chwiejczak

Jan13-Jan15 flattener 06-Dec-11 70 89 20 95 115 Melzi

Long Jun 14 Mbonos 06-Dec-11 472 498 45 525 178 Melzi

MYR Receive 1y1y vs 5y 06-Dec-11 33bp 275bp 50bp 20bp 300 Arora

Poland Receive 1Y1Y FWD 06-Dec-11 47 476 4 5 317 Chwiejczak

SGD 1y fwd 3s10s steepeners 06-Dec-11 120 118 150 110 400 Arora

SOAF Long 5Y bond (R157) 06-Dec-11 67 674 64 72 074 Gable Chwiejczak

Turkey Long bond JAN16 FX hedge 06-Dec-11 995 103 10 107 075 Chwiejczak

KRW 2s5s steepener 11-Nov-11 425bp 22bp 20bp -5bp 247 Wang

Israel 5Y-2Y steepner dv01 08-Nov-11 60bp 63bp 100bp 50bp 257 Chwiejczak

China 2s5s NDIRS steepener 12-Oct-11 0bp 15bp 40bp -10bp 100 Wang

Israel ILS 10Y CPI BE 15-Sep-11 2 215 25 - 016 Chwiejczak

Receive 1y1y fwd TIIE 12-Aug-11 493 525 425 545 500 Melzi

South Africa Receive 5y IRS 29-Jul-11 735 68 6 74 141 Chwiejczak Gable

Closed Trades (2) Entry Date Close Date Buy 3m EUR call HUF put spread 06-Dec-11 300 307 345 - 11-Jan-12 Chow Pay TRY 1Yx2YFWD 06-Dec-11 71 78 9 68 11-Jan-12 Chwiejczak

Note As of 12 January 2012 (trades are updated regionally) Methodology PampL to targetPampL to stop is a measure of how much can be gained relative to how much can be lost Both are calculated from the current value and reported in dollars This measure does not take probabilities into account Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE

Currency Tactical bias Strategic directional view Current strategy trades we like

Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia

THB Bullish The performance of the THB has been remarkably resilient despite political change and the effect of flooding on economic activity Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy should support economic growth and the currency

073 415

INR Bearish Overvaluation weak fundamentals and the risk of capital outflows could ensue if risk appetite worsens point to INR underperformance

051 395

MYR Bullish Resilient growth a healthy fiscal position and the roll-out of the governmentrsquos divestment program should support the currency

Long MYRTWD 3m NDF 054 380

IDR Bullish The recent underperformance of the IDR vis-agrave-vis the wider region is likely to reverse as risk aversion ebbs

033 375

KRW Bullish Elevated inflation robust export growth and a tight labour markets augur for KRW appreciation

Sell AUDKRW 1m forward 037 375

PHP Bullish The central bankrsquos preference for the PHP not to be an outlier in terms of regional performance points to modest currency appreciation

032 315

SGD Bullish We expect the MAS to maintain a bias towards currency appreciation near the centre of the NEER policy band which we estimate to be +-275bp with a +2 slope

Long SGD vs USD (60)-EUR (40) basket 025 300

CNY Bullish We expect the USDCNY to move lower as the PBoC leans against still-elevated inflation

018 290

TWD Neutral While economic activity remains relatively firm inflationary pressures are benign running at about 10 yy As such the CBC has little incentive to allow the TWD to appreciate if risk appetite improves

Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265

HKD Neutral Rising CNY deposits onshore could result in the ldquoRMB-isationrdquo of the economy

-017 260

Latin America

PEN Neutral Expensive as it does not price a risk premium 014 315

MXN Neutral

The MXN has too much risk priced in in our view While it is exposed to global risks Banxicorsquos latest FX intervention caps the downside

Sell 3m ATMF USD callMXN put (ref spotfwd 136469137461)

016 295

BRL Neutral

BRL has supportive technicals and like Mexico a relatively high risk premium priced in It is still exposed to global risks

Sell 3m ATMF USD callBRL put (spotfwd ref 179081825) 012 250

CLP Neutral

Its clean technical positioning should allow the CLP to appreciate as soon as global risk appetite is restored

011 235

COP Bearish Valuation has improved but technical positioning limits the upside Uncertain MampA-driven dollar demand

001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA

EGP Bearish The CBE has tried to stabilise the EGP against capital flight but FX reserves have fallen sharply It may need to take a hard decision in a couple of months to allow a lsquofloat devaluationrsquo before reserves fall below a prudent level

078 370

TRY Neutralbearish Turkeyrsquos high external funding needs and uncertain monetary policy will likely weigh against the lira relative to the stronger currencies in EEMEA FX intervention is being used to support TRY but the amount of official reserves is low compared with short-term debt levels

Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325

ZAR Bullish Strong commodity prices and attractive local asset prices (on bonds) should mean capital inflows if global liquidity conditions stabilise This should benefit the ZAR more than other high-beta EEMEA currencies

Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310

RUB Bullish Russiarsquos resilience to euro contagion is supported by sticky oil prices and argues for going long the RUB against a EUR-USD basket Strong local growth and higher yields should help retain capital in the country

Short EUR-USD basketlong RUB 035 310

HUF Neutral The voiced willingness by the Hungarian government to agree to what is needed to bring an IMFEU loans plus stronger global risk appetite will likely trigger for hedging of HUF shorts But fundamentals remain fragile

-010 300

PLN Bearish We recommend short PLN given the more fragile conditions for Poland with poor growth and large external financing needs

Long EURshort PLN 009 285

RON Bearish We are cautious on CEE currencies and while NBR intervention is helping we are concerned about bank-related capital outflows and persistent poor growth in Romania

Long EURshort RON

003 280

ILS NeutralBullish Opportunity for an RV trade against the CZK given Israelrsquos stronger balance of payments and lower vulnerability to euro area contagion The ILS should benefit from our house view of lower EURUSD (and the past correlation between ILSCZK and EURUSD)

Long ILSShort CZK

004 240

CZK Neutralbearish Has the strongest balance sheet among CEE countries however the currency should still suffer as the Czech economy may slip back into a recession

Long ILSShort CZK -005 180

UAH Neutralbearish High carry reflects investor fears of devaluation An agreement with the IMF or Russia on gas imports may alleviate these concerns but there has been little progress in this direction Meanwhile FX reserves are being slowly depleted by some internal capital flight

KZT Neutralbullish Being a commodity producer (oil) and having a positive CA create a cushion for uncertainty in global capital flows However low liquidity in this FX market may limit the appeal of the KZT

Note Versus EUR The variable score is an index that ranks EM currencies according to vol-adjusted returns PPP valuation carry systemic risk basic balanceGDP and reserves accumulated over the past 5yGDP For more details on the trade recommendations please see the EM Dashboard Note that bold text indicates changes in view Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 28

CREDIT PORTFOLIO OAS (bp) OAD Weights () Duration Bias Total Returns () Bonds we recommendhellip

30-Dec-11 11-Jan-12 3mF Benchmark Model Adj Duration

1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling

EM Portfolio 373 380 360 71 100 1000 Long 79 -06 -05 -05 17 Arg Ven Ukr 1029 1027 989 54 132 129 under Short 43 -03 09 09 55 Other 271 282 264 74 868 871 neutral Long 84 -07 -07 -07 12 EM Asia 244 252 227 75 15 16 over Long 95 -09 -07 -07 21 Philippines 212 217 197 84 75 63 under Long 85 -07 -05 -05 15 Philip 24s 25s 34s 37s Philip 13s 14s 15s

16s 17s Indonesia 237 248 218 69 64 87 over Long 114 -11 -09 -09 27 Indo 14s 15s 16s 17s 18s 20s 21s 37s 38s Sri Lanka 475 495 470 58 06 07 neutral Long 76 -13 -12 -12 25 Sri Lanka 20 21s Vietnam 522 517 497 48 05 03 under Short 25 01 04 04 18 Vietnam 20s EMEA 382 396 388 62 38 37 under Neutral 66 -06 -07 -07 04 Turkey 369 411 400 71 90 102 neutral Neutral 80 -26 -24 -24 05 Turkey 15s 16s 17s 18s Russia 327 315 292 58 92 117 over Long 88 02 09 09 18 Russia 28s Russia 30s Russia 15s Qatar 224 234 210 67 47 50 over Long 86 -06 -05 -05 18 Qatar 40s42s Poland 314 327 322 57 30 30 neutral Long 69 -09 -06 -06 -03 Poland 21s 22s Lebanon 370 368 383 44 28 14 under Neutral 22 02 03 03 -17 Ukraine 926 959 1008 43 20 13 under Short 23 -10 -07 -07 -30 Ukr 12s 13s Ukr 20s 21s Hungary 657 690 715 62 18 07 under Short 19 66 -19 -19 -31 Hungary 20s 21s 41sSouth Africa 222 251 239 74 23 08 under Neutral 25 -19 -17 -17 03 Lithuania 448 451 417 53 16 22 over Neutral 75 03 01 01 31 Lithuania 17s 20s 21s Croatia 601 621 636 65 10 05 under Neutral 32 -17 -10 -10 -22 Egypt 622 647 651 76 03 00 under Short 00 -21 -21 -21 -13 Egypt 20s 40s Latin America 403 407 379 80 46 46 over Long 86 -06 -02 -02 28 Brazil 168 171 149 80 118 158 over Long 129 -05 -05 -05 17 BR41 Mexico 167 181 158 88 98 114 over Long 122 -08 -10 -10 18 MX22N MX 40 MX 100yr Venezuela 1175 1176 1116 54 71 80 over Short 49 -09 04 04 80 PD 17N PD 15 Argentina 827 802 762 60 41 36 neutral Short 42 09 28 28 51 Boden 15 Colombia 184 201 186 88 41 24 under Short 41 -10 -10 -10 05 CO 27 CO 33 CO 41 Peru 207 214 189 107 28 29 neutral Long 133 -12 -11 -11 27 PE33 PE50 PE37 Panama 198 198 181 92 24 04 under Short 12 -03 -02 -02 10 PA 36 Uruguay 191 188 173 103 17 10 under Short 49 00 00 00 06 UY25 El Salvador 447 469 479 84 10 00 under Short 00 -12 -11 -11 -29 EL Salv 35 Dominican Republic 583 607 600 53 05 05 neutral Short 38 -15 -11 -11 08 DR21 DR27 Additional Countries 428 438 430 39 19 12 under Neutral 28 00 02 02 07 Abu Dhabi 166 188 185 41 09 00 under Long 00 -11 -09 -09 -05 ADGB14s Bulgaria 366 353 361 27 03 00 under Neutral 00 03 06 06 -04 Bulgaria 15s Gabon 419 434 402 47 02 05 over Neutral 112 -01 02 02 27 Gabon 17s Pakistan 1377 1383 1383 37 02 03 neutral Short 34 02 03 03 24 Ghana 556 555 516 45 02 04 over Neutral 88 -02 04 04 36 Ghana 17s

Note Benchmark forecast Benchmark is a variant of the Barclays Capital Global EM Sovereigns index featuring USD only bonds Changes in view denoted in bold Additional Countries was previously known as Off-Index Allocations Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 29

EM LOCAL BOND PORTFOLIO

1112012 Weights Total Returns FX Unhedged () Bonds we recommendhellip

Duration Yield to Worst Mkt val

Current Market Model Past Week QTD YTD 3m Forecast Buying Selling

EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374

Latin America 390 849 369473 27 2845 3318 over 118 -460 571 424

Brazil 263 1036 186486 14 1558 2011 over 115 -462 683 430 Jan 17 NTNF Jan21 NTNF Global BRL Jan 22

Chile 417 463 5663 0 036 009 under 159 -034 072 174 May 18 BCP

Colombia 446 655 60761 4 392 440 over 330 -004 1316 561 Local TES Jul 24

Mexico 574 614 105601 8 784 848 over 024 -865 -066 390 Jun 27 Nov 36 Nov 38

Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110

Czech Republic 581 301 44047 3 304 100 under -159 -1545 -361 009 Apr 17s May 25s

Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D

Israel 437 343 45001 3 301 277 under 016 -546 -164 -048 Sept 13s Feb 19s

Poland 423 515 88131 6 660 374 under -051 -1953 -1059 -315 Apr 16s Oct 20s

Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621

South Africa 588 780 74684 5 515 720 over 074 -1147 -1173 294 R157s

Turkey 214 1091 58790 4 438 428 neutral 146 -1122 -1341 270 Jan 16s Jan 21s

EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520

India 686 839 8461 1 054 075 over 269 -964 -794 767 IGB GS 2018 GS 2015

Indonesia 708 642 58625 4 400 400 neutral -011 777 2138 518 INDOGB May 2022 (FR61)

Malaysia 484 331 80161 6 543 550 neutral 001 -080 324 278 MGS Sep 18

Philippines 780 527 37257 3 257 244 neutral -010 1239 1680 502

South Korea 430 358 360560 26 2524 2642 over -076 -413 401 558 3-5y bonds

Thailand 616 327 67631 5 469 450 neutral -030 178 064 580 LB176A

Note Bolding indicates change in bias Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 30

DATA REVIEW amp PREVIEW ASIA Rahul Bajoria Jian Chang Joey Chew Yiping Huang Waiho Leong Siddhartha Sanyal Prakriti Sofat Lingxiu Yang

Review of last weekrsquos data releases

Main indicators Period Previous BarCap Actual Comments

Taiwan Exports ( yy) Dec 13 30 06 Stabilisation trend intact albeit more subdued than expected

China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136

Monetary conditions improved on a rise in deposits and new loans

China Exports ( yy) Dec 138 110 134

Stable export growth likely supported by pre-Chinese New Year shipments

China Imports ( yy) Dec 221 190 118

Lower commodity prices (except oil) led to slower import growth

Malaysia IP ( yy) Dec 29 46 18 Momentum stabilises despite ongoing weakness in the mining sector

Korea Unemployment Dec 31 32 31 Resilient job market lessens need for immediate policy support

Malaysia Exports ( yy) Nov 158 96 80 Weak external demand and weather disruptions to palm oil shipments

China CPI ( yy) Dec 42 39 41 CPI moderation trend intact but monetary policy to stay neutral for now

India IP ( yy) Nov -47 27 59 We do not expect the RBI to start easing in January

Indonesia BI policy rate () Jan 60 575 60 BI concerned about FX pressure from eroding interest rate differentials

Preview of week ahead

Monday 16 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

ndash Philippines Remittances ( yy) Nov 111 84 62 65 ndash

ndash Thailand Exports ( yy) Dec 191 03 -124 -75 ndash

1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74

Philippines Remittances to continue growing given signs of stabilisation in global activity indicators and a low base

Thailand As supply disruptions dissipate in the auto sector we expect exports to show improvement on a sequential basis

India An expected rapid softening in headline inflation driven by softer food prices and strong base effects However food inflation will likely move up in the coming months and ldquocorerdquo inflation remains high

Tuesday 17 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

0800 Singapore Non-oil domestic exports ( yy) Dec -46 -163 16 -40 12

1000 China Industrial production ( yy) Dec 138 132 124 128 123

1000 China Fixed assets investment ( yy) Dec 249 249 245 241 241

1000 China Retail sales ( yy) Dec 177 172 173 176 173

1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87

Singapore We believe the stabilisation in export momentum continued in December as suggested by the increase in non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods in November we expect export growth of 15-2 mm (sa)

China We forecast a modest pick-up in industrial activity growth given the timing of Chinese New Year which falls in January this year versus February last year We expect investment growth to moderate further on the continued property market correction Retail sales growth should remain robust due to holiday sales We expect Q4 GDP growth of 85 Overall we expect further moderation in industrial activity and economic growth to bottom in Q1 paving the way for more policy easing

Wednesday 18 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

1700 Malaysia CPI ( yy) Dec 34 34 33 ndash ndash

Thursday 19 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

1600 Philippines BSP policy rate () Jan 450 450 450 425 425

Philippines Given manageable inflation outlook against a backdrop of external headwinds we expect Bangko Sentral to cut rates 25bp We expect another 25bp cut in Q2 There is also a possibility that the central bank will cut the RRR following the reform in the reserve requirement system


12 January 2012 31

Friday 20 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

1600 Taiwan Export orders ( yy) Dec 27 44 25 -20 ndash

1600 Taiwan Industrial production ( yy) Dec 18 10 -36 -60 ndash

Taiwan IP growth continues to moderate amid weaker external demand A high year-earlier base is behind our expected 6 yy fall in IP which will overshadow the expected 15 mm sa rise reflecting stabilisation in electronics exports

Saturday 22 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

ndash China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI Jan 510 477 487 ndash ndash


12 January 2012 32

DATA REVIEW amp PREVIEW EMERGING EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Eldar Vakhitov Daniel Hewitt Christian Keller Vladimir Pantyushin Jeffrey Schultz Alia Moubayed


Main indicators Period Previous Barclays Actual Comments

Czech Republic Industrial Output ( yy) Nov 17 - 54 Improved auto production and higher exports lead IP up Czech Republic Trade balance (CZK bn) Nov 260 - 184 Surplus narrows slightly on monthly rise in imports Romania Retail sales ( yy) Nov 20 - 19 Retail sales (especially durables) remain weak Hungary Industrial Production WDA ( yy) Nov 30 - 35 IP appears to have picked up no details yet available Ukraine CPI ( yy) Dec 52 55 46 Driven mainly by an unexpected slowdown in food prices Ukraine Official reserve assets (USD bn) Dec 324 311 318 Higher than expected South Africa Gross reserves USD bn Dec 497 - 489 Due to lower gold price and stronger USD in December Czech CPI yy Dec 25 24 24 Higher in Q4 due to food currency VAT pass through Czech Retail sales yy Nov 15 - 05 More signs of weakness of domestic consumption Czech Unemployment rate Dec 80 - 86 Unemployment was flat seasonally adjusted Hungary Trade balance (EUR bn) Nov P 05 - 07 Surplus represents weak imports as exports declining (sa) Romania Trade balance (EUR bn) Nov -08 - -09 Trade volumes declining and 12m trade deficit flat Turkey Industrial production NSA yy Nov 74 - 84 Remains strong in line with relatively robust PMI prints Bulgaria Industrial production yy Nov 24 - 06 Decreased significantly over the past months Bulgaria Retail trade yy Nov -52 - -53 Negative growth for the past half-year South Africa Naamsa vehicle sales yy Dec 117 - 110 Due to omission of Mercedes-Benz sales from the series

otherwise sales growth would have reached 166 Hungary Budget balance (HUF bn YTD) Dec -1248 - -1734 General government surplus with pension transfers still

underlying fiscal position deteriorated Romania Industrial output yy Nov 48 - 32 Gradual deceleration continues as exports decline Egypt CPI yy Dec 91 88 96 Driven by higher-than-expected pickup in food prices Kazakhstan Real wages yy Nov 83 65 101 Consumer sector performance remains strong Turkey Current account USD bn Nov -42 - -52 Small improvement on a 12-month rolling basis Romania CPI yy Dec 34 32 31 Lower rises in food and other goods service inflation up Romania Net wages yy Nov 87 - 83 Wage increases reflect public sector not private sector Poland Base rate announcement Jan 450 450 450 Unchanged as expected but views on growth and inflation

were revised upwards Kazakhstan Industrial production yy Dec 29 25 05 Has been slowing in recent months South Africa Manufacturing production yy Nov 12 - 26 Higher than expected momentum growth remains positive Israel Trade balance (USD bn) Dec -15 - -12 Trade deficit narrowed as imports fell and exports rose Serbia CPI yy Dec 81 75 70 Lower than expected due to a record fall in food prices



0800 Hungary CPI yy Dec 36 39 43 44 43

0900 Czech Current account CZK bn Nov -340 37 13 - -40

0900 Bulgaria CPI yy Dec 33 35 31 - 30

1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46

1300 Poland Current account EUR bn Nov -14 -13 -16 -13 -15

1300 Poland Trade balance EUR bn Nov -10 -04 -07 -07 -08

Romania Current account YTD EUR bn Nov -33 -38 -41 - -

Russia Trade balance USD bn Nov 145 167 169 175 171

Ukraine Merchandise trade balance YTD USD bn Nov -81 -95 -114 - -

Hungary We expect inflation to remain relatively stable in December before a big pickup in January due to hikes in VAT andexcises and currency weakness

Czech Republic The CA is likely to continue on its improving path as the trade surplus expands

Poland Weaker PLN and higher oil prices are likely to contribute to an above-consensus December CPI print Starting from January we expect inflation to decrease on base effects to around 4 in March The first signs of softer domestic demand areevident thus we expect the CA to adjust more quickly


12 January 2012 33

Romania The CA balance is likely to continue its modest increasing trend on falling transfers

Russia High oil prices and import growth moderation will likely keep trade balance elevated

Ukraine High gas prices and consumer sector recovery are dragging the trade balance further into the red

Sunday 15 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24

Israel We expect further deceleration of inflation with food inflation flat and housing-related inflation declining


0800 Turkey Consumer confidence index Dec 937 897 910 - -

0800 Turkey Unemployment rate Oct 91 92 88 - -

1000 Croatia CPI ( yy) Dec 22 26 26 - -

Ukraine Retail trade YTD ( yy) Dec 152 149 145 105 -

Ukraine Consumer boom has likely continued at double-digit pace supported by relatively strong real wage growth


Ukraine Industrial production ( yy) Dec 64 47 38 25 13

Ukraine The industry has likely continued to decelerate


0800 South Africa CPI ( yy) Dec 57 60 61 62 63

0900 South Africa Kagiso PMI Dec 502 505 516 - -

1100 South Africa Retail sales ( yy) Nov 77 77 74 70 78

1300 Poland Average gross wages ( yy) Dec 52 51 44 - 45

South Africa We forecast CPI to have ticked up further to 62 yy in December due to higher food prices and a pick-up in core inflation Concerning PMI we expect it to remain above 50 although concerns relating to the global economic environment could have weighed on the index in December We forecast a small moderation in headline retail sales growth in Novemberalbeit they should still show relatively strong growth momentum given positive consumer fundamentals


South Africa Interest rate Jan 550 550 550 550 550

Serbia Repo rate Jan 1075 1000 975 925 950

1300 Poland Sold Industrial output ( yy) Dec 77 65 87 - 61

Russia Budget level YTD (RUB bn) Dec 1088 1399 1343 397 -

South Africa We expect the SARB MPC to keep the policy rate unchanged next week as it continues to balance upside inflationconcerns with the downside risks to both global and domestic growth

Serbia Inflation declined stronger than expected in December and growth still remains weak so we expect the NBS to deliver a50bp cut


0800 Hungary Average gross wages ( yy) Nov 65 52 61 - 53

1300 Poland Core inflation ( yy) Dec 26 28 30 - 30


12 January 2012 34

DATA REVIEW amp PREVIEW LATIN AMERICA Alejandro Arreaza Alejandro Grisanti Bruno Rovai Guilherme Loureiro Marcelo Salomon Sebastian Vargas

Review of the weekrsquos data releases


Brazil IGP-DI inflation mm Dec 043 - -016 Both agricultural and industrial PPI are driving the IGP-DI down

Chile Trade balance USD mn Dec 6570 1000 394 Strong decline in exports (-173 yy) Lowest level since August 2009 reflecting lower external demand

Mexico CPI inflation mm Dec 108 074 082 Main upward source of surprise came from perishables and meategg groups within the non-core component

Mexico CPI core inflation mm Dec 032 049 051 Seasonally adjusted core inflation was roughly stable at 035 mm sa (from 034 in November)

Mexico Econ activity index yy Oct 53 40 37 Consistent with a -06 mm sa decline at the margin we continue to expect activity to have sharply decelerated in Q4 11

Mexico Gross fixed invest yy Oct 68 42 49 At the margin investments dropped 10 mm with machinery sector leading the way down (-21 mm sa)

Mexico Industrial production yy Nov 33 33 32 Confirming our below-consensus forecast (01 mm sa vs BarCap at 02) Activity remains skewed to the downside

Brazil Retail sales yy Nov 43 47 68 Strong recovery in core sales but still suggests GDP growth at a depressed pace in Q4 2011

Chile Overnight rate target Jan 525 500

Peru Reference rate Jan 425 425

Preview of the week ahead


- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -

- Peru Unemployment rate Dec 73 73 70 - -

Peru GDP The persistence of strong consumption growth is likely to prevent further deceleration of economic activity mitigatingthe impact that the suspension of key mining projects could have on investment Therefore we still expect GDP growth of 57in November


500 Brazil IGP-10 inflation mm Jan 064 044 019 - 002


- Brazil Selic overnight rate Jan 1200 1150 1100 1050 -

930 Brazil Economic activity index yy Nov 304 127 069 - 060

Brazil Selic overnight rate We expect two 50bp cuts in the Selic rate which would bring it to 1000 by March 2011 ndash a level at which we expect it to remain a long time In the Q4 11 IR the BCB emphasized that the recent monetary easing will help stimulate the economy in coming quarters Moreover under the market scenario (USDBRL at 180 in 2011 and 175 in 2012 and 2013 and the Selic rate at 1137 2011 950 in 2012 and 1035 in 2013) it estimates that inflation would slow down in2012 and move up again to 53 in 2013 And with activity picking up and inflation rising in 2013 we continue to think thespace to ease monetary conditions beyond 10 is limited


900 Mexico Unemployment rate Dec 57 50 50 46 -

1600 Colombia Industrial production yy Nov 98 51 50 68 46

1600 Colombia Retail sales yy Nov 91 85 61 02 60

Mexico unemployment rate We expect the unemployment rate to be flat in seasonally adjusted terms at 52 Overall wecontinue to see a deteriorated labor market in Mexico especially when considering the evolution of the underemployment ratewhich has been moving up in 2011


12 January 2012 35

Colombia industrial production Driven more by investment and the expansion of the mining and oil sector than byconsumption IP is expected to maintain strong growth in November expanding 68

Colombia retail sales Despite the continuity of a high consumer confidence the deceleration of car sales suggests a slowdownin consumption of durable goods that could be reflecting the effect of the monetary tightening during 2011 Therefore weexpect a significant slowdown in retail to register a marginal growth of 02


1000 Mexico Overnight rate Jan 450 450 450 450 450

1400 Argentina Economic activity index yy Nov 101 89 81 -

Mexico overnight rate With the recent upside surprises on the inflationary front we expect Banxico to postpone an interestrates easing But with the recent softer activity indicators suggesting that the Mexican economy will sharply slow down in Q4 11we continue to think that an easing cycle will look more attractive to Banxico in the latter part of Q1

Week 16-21 January Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

- Argentina Budget balance ARS mn Dec 449 446 4259 -

- Brazil CAGED formal job creations k Dec 209 126 43 - -

- Brazil Tax collections BRL bn Dec 751 887 790 - -

- Venezuela Lending mm Dec 38 40 59 - -

- Venezuela Unemployment rate Dec 83 82 62 - -


12 January 2012 36

FX FORECASTS AND FORWARDS

FX forecasts Forecast vs outright forward


G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37

OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES

Start of cycle Forecasts as at end of

Official rate Current Date Level Last move Next move expected Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12

per annum (unless stated)

Advanced

Fed funds rate 0-025 Easing 17 Sep 07 525 Dec 08 (-75-100) Beyond 2013 0-025 0-025 0-025 0-025

BoJ overnight rate 010 Easing 30 Oct 08 050 Oct 10 (0-10) Q1 14 (+20) 0-010 0-010 0-010 0-010

ECB repo rate 100 Easing 03 Nov 11 150 Dec 11 (-25) Mar 12 (-50) 050 050 050 050

Emerging Asia

China Working capital rate 656 Tightening 19 Oct 10 531 Jul 11 (+25) Beyond Q4 12 656 656 656 656

Hong Kong Base rate 050 Easing 19 Sep 07 675 Dec 08 (-100) Beyond Q4 12 050 050 050 050

India Repo rate 850 Tightening 19 Mar 10 475 Oct 11 (+25) Q2 12 (-25) 850 825 800 775

Indonesia ON policy rate 600 Easing 11 Oct 11 675 Nov 11 (-50) Q1 12 (-50) 550 550 550 550

Korea Base rate 325 Tightening 9 Jul 10 225 Jun 11(+25) Beyond Q4 12 325 325 325 325

Sri Lanka Reverse repo 850 Easing 20 Feb 09 1200 Jan 11 (-50) Q2 12 (-50) 850 800 800 800

Malaysia ON policy rate 300 Tightening 4 Mar 10 200 May 11 (+25) Beyond Q4 12 300 300 300 300

Philippines ON lending 450 Tightening 24 Mar 11 400 May 11 (+25) Q1 12 (-25) 425 400 400 400

Taiwan Rediscount rate 1875 Tightening 24 Jun 10 1375 Jun 11 (+125) Beyond Q4 12 1875 1875 1875 1875

Thailand ON repo rate 325 Easing 30 Nov 11 350 Nov 11 (-25) Q1 12 (-25) 300 300 325 350

Vietnam Reverse repo rate 1400 Easing Jul 11 1500 Jul 11 (-100) Q1 12 (-200) 1200 1100 1000 1000

Emerging Europe Middle East amp Africa

Czech Republic 2w repo rate 075 Easing 8 Aug 08 375 Apr 10 (-25) Q4 12 (+25) 075 075 075 100

Hungary 2w deposit rate 700 Tightening 29 Nov 10 525 Dec 11 (+50) Jan 12 (+25) 725 725 725 725

Poland 2w repo rate 450 Tightening 19 Jan 11 350 Jun 11 (+25) Mar 12 (-25) 425 375 375 375

Romania Key policy rate 575 Easing 4 Feb 08 1025 Jan 12 (-25) Feb 12 (-25) 525 500 500 500

Russia Refi rate 800 Easing 23 Dec 11 825 Dec 11 (-25) Mar 12 (-25) 775 750 750 750

South Africa Repo rate 550 Easing 11 Dec 08 1200 Nov 10 (-50) Nov 12 (+50) 550 550 550 600

Turkey 1wk repo rate 575 Easing 20 Nov 08 1675 Aug 11 (-50) Beyond Q4 12 575 575 575 575

Egypt Deposit rate 925 Tightening 24 Nov 11 825 Nov 11 (+100) Feb 12 (+100) 1125 1125 1125 1125

Israel Discount rate 275 Easing 26 Sep 11 325 Nov 11 (-25) Jan 12 (-25) 250 225 225 225

Latin America

Brazil SELIC rate 1100 Easing 31 Aug 11 1250 Nov 11 (-50) Jan 12 (-50) 1000 1000 1000 1000

Chile Monetary policy rate 500 Easing 12 January 12 525 Jan 12 (-25) Feb 12 (-25) 450 425 425 425

Colombia Repo rate 475 Tightening 25 Feb 11 300 Nov 11 (+25) Mar 12 (+25) 500 550 550 550

Mexico Overnight rate 450 Easing 16 Jan 09 825 Jul 09 (-25) Q1 12 (-25) 425 400 400 400

Peru Reference rate 425 Tightening 6 May 10 125 May 11 (+25) Beyond 2012 425 425 425 425

Note Changes denoted in bold Source Barclays Capital


12 January 2012 38

EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH Piero Ghezzi Head of Global Economics Emerging Markets and FX Research +44 (0)20 3134 2190 pieroghezzibarcapcom

EM Global Michael Gavin Head of Global Macro Strategy and Head of EM Strategy +1 212 412 5915 michaelgavinbarcapcom

Alanna Gregory EM Strategist +1 212 412 5938 alannagregorybarcapcom

Latin America Alejandro Arreaza Economist ndash Latin America +1 212 412 3021 alejandroarreazabarcapcom

Sebastian Brown Strategist +1 212 412 6721 sebastianbrownbarcapcom

Alejandro Grisanti Chief Economist ndash Latin America Ex-Brazil Mexico +1 212 412 5982 alejandrogrisantibarcapcom

Donato Guarino Senior Strategist +1 212 412 5564 donatoguarinobarcapcom

Guilherme Loureiro Economist ndash Brazil +55 11 3757 7372 guilhermeloureirobarcapcom

Roberto Melzi Senior Strategist +1 212 412 5963 robertomelzibarcapcom

Bruno Rovai Economist +55 11 3757 7392 brunorovaibarcapcom

Marcelo Salomon Chief Economist ndash Brazil Chile Mexico+1 212 412 5717 marcelosalomonbarcapcom

Sebastian Vargas Economist - Argentina Uruguay +1 212 412 6823 sebastianvargasbarcapcom

Asia Pacific Jon Scoffin Head of Credit Research and Head of Research Asia-Pacific +65 6308 3217 jonscoffinbarcapcom

Rohit Arora FI Strategist Emerging Asia +65 6308 2092 rohitarora3barcapcom

Rahul Bajoria Regional Economist ndash India Malaysia Thailand +65 6308 3511 rahulbajoriabarcapcom

Jian Chang Regional Economist ndash China Hong Kong+852 2903 2654 jianchangbarcapcom

Joey Chew Regional Economist - Singapore +65 6308 3211 joeychewbarcapcom

Olivier Desbarres Head of FX Strategy Asia-Pacific ex-Japan +65 6308 2073 olivierdesbarresbarcapcom

Yiping Huang Chief Economist Emerging Asia +852 2903 3291 yipinghuangbarcapcom

Wai Ho Leong Senior Regional Economist ndash Korea Malaysia Singapore Taiwan +65 6308 3292 waiholeongbarcapcom

Hamish Pepper FX Strategist Asia-Pacific ex-Japan +65 6308 2220 hamishpepperbarcapcom

Kumar Rachapudi FI Strategist Emerging Asia +65 6308 3383 kumarrachapudibarcapcom

Siddhartha Sanyal Chief Economist India +91 22 6719 6177 siddharthasanyalbarcapcom

Prakriti Sofat Regional Economist ndash Indonesia Philippines Sri Lanka Vietnam +65 6308 3201 prakritisofatbarcapcom

Nick Verdi FX Strategist Asia-Pacific ex-Japan +65 6308 3093 nickverdibarcapcom

Ju Wang FI Strategist Emerging Asia +65 6308 2801 juwangbarcapcom

Lingxiu (Steven) Yang Regional Economist ndash China Hong Kong +852 2903 2653 lingxiuyangbarcapcom

Krishna Hegde CFA Asia Credit Strategist and Senior Financial Institutions +65 6308 2979 krishnahegdebarcapcom

Avanti Save Credit Strategy +65 6308 3116 avantisavebarcapcom

Emerging EMEA Christian Keller Head of Emerging EMEA Research +44 (0)20 7773 2031 christiankellerbarcapcom

Koon Chow Head of Emerging EMEA Strategy +44 (0)20 777 37572 koonchowbarcapcom

Jeff Gable Head of ABSA Capital Research +27 11 895 5368 jeffgableabsacapitalcom

Gina Schoeman Economist ndash South Africa +27 (0)11 895 5403 ginaschoemanabsacapitalcom

Daniel Hewitt Senior Emerging EMEA Economist +44 (0)20 3134 3522 danielhewittbarcapcom

Piotr Chwiejczak Rates Strategist +44 (0)20 3134 4606 piotrchwiejczak barcapcom

Ridle Markus Economist ndash Sub-Saharan Africa +27 11 895 5374 ridlemarkusabsacapitalcom

Fahad Al Turki Economist ndash Saudi Arabia +966 1880 6577 fahadalturkibarcapcom

Vladimir Pantyushin Chief Economist ndash Russia and CIS +7 495 7868450 vladimirpantyushinbarcapcom

Andreas Kolbe Credit Strategist +44 (0)20 313 43134 andreaskolbebarcapcom

Jeffrey Schultz Economist ndash South Africa +27 (0)11 895 5349 jeffreyschultzabsacapitalcom

Eldar Vakhitov Emerging EMEA Economist +44 (0)20 777 32192 eldarvakhitovbarcapcom

Alia Moubayed Senior Economist ndash Middle East amp North Africa +44 (0)20 313 41120 aliamoubayedbarcapcom

Dumisani Ngwenya Strategist ndash Africa +27 (0)11 895 5346 dumisaningwenyaabsacapitalcom

Ian Marsberg Economist ndash South Africa +27 11 895 5347 ianmarsbergabsacapitalcom

EM Corporate Credit Juan C Cruz Head of Latin America amp EEMEA Corporate Credit Research +1 212 412 3424 juancruzbarcapcom

Christopher Buck +1 212 412 3418 christopherbuckbarcapcom

Stella Cridge +44 (0)20 313 49618 stellacridgebarcapcom

Miguel Crivelli +1 212 412 5231 miguelcrivellibarcapcom

Ivan Fernandes +1 212 412 3428 ivanfernandesbarcapcom

Autumn Graham +1 212 412 2839 autumngrahambarcapcom

Milena Ianeva +44 (0)20 7773 8536 milenaianevabarcapcom

Stanislav Ponomarenko +7 495 786 8451 stanislavponomarenkobarcapcom

Aziz Sunderji +1 212 412 2218 azizsunderjibarcapcom

Antoine Yacoub + 44 207 7731727 antoineyacoubbarcapcom

Golib Zohidov +44 (0)20 777 31513 golibzohidovbarcapcom

Analyst Certification(s) We Alanna Gregory Koon Chow Piotr Chwiejczak Andreas Kolbe Rahul Bajoria Jian Chang Gina Schoeman Sebastian Brown Sebastian Vargas OlivierDesbarres Hamish Pepper Nick Verdi Krishna Hegde CFA Avanti Save Prakriti Sofat Kumar Rachapudi Alejandro Arreaza Alejandro Grisanti DonatoGuarino Justin Luther Aziz Sunderji Joey Chew Yiping Huang Wai Ho Leong Siddhartha Sanyal Lingxiu Yang Daniel Hewitt Christian Keller Alia Moubayed Vladimir Pantyushin Jeffrey Schultz Eldar Vakhitov Guilherme Loureiro Bruno Rovai Marcelo Salomon and Roberto Melzi hereby certify (1) thatthe views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this researchreport To the extent that any of the conclusions are based on a quantitative model Barclays Capital hereby certifies (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect the firms quantitative research model and (2) no part of the firms compensation was is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report Important Disclosures For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report please send a written request to Barclays Capital ResearchCompliance 745 Seventh Avenue 17th Floor New York NY 10019 or refer to httppublicresearchbarcapcom or call 212-526-1072 Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports As a result investors should be aware that Barclays Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report Any reference to Barclays Capital includes its affiliates Barclays Capital andor anaffiliate thereof (the firm) regularly trades generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securitiesthat are the subject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof) The firms proprietary trading accounts may have either a long and or short position in such securities and or derivative instruments which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers Where permitted and subjectto appropriate information barrier restrictions the firms fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel to determine currentprices of fixed income securities The firms fixed income research analyst(s) receive compensation based on various factors including but not limited to the quality of their work the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the investment banking department) the profitability and revenues ofthe Fixed Income Division and the outstanding principal amount and trading value of the profitability of and the potential interest of the firms investingclients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from BarclaysCapital trading desks the firm makes no representation that it is accurate or complete All levels prices and spreads are historical and do not representcurrent market levels prices or spreads some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document Barclays Capital produces a variety of research products including but not limited to fundamental analysis equity-linked analysis quantitative analysis and trade ideas Recommendationscontained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research products whether as a result of differingtime horizons methodologies or otherwise In order to access Barclays Capitals Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures pleaserefer to httpslivebarcapcompubliccpRSRnyfipubsdisclaimerdisclaimer-research-disseminationhtml

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OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 2

EM VIEWS ON A PAGE

What happened

Markets Global risk markets remain well supported this week with data from the US and China easing investor concerns of a recession EM currencies have appreciated on the week with the high betas outperforming (BRL INR TRY) In EM credit Venezuela has been underperforming on news that it will be issuing new debt earlier than expected

Global data Spain sold EUR10bn worth of debt far more than expected which represented a significant portion of this yearrsquos total issuance at yields below 4 Italy raised EUR12bn at 273 for 1y and 164 for 6m well below the rates last year Chinarsquos December CPI came in at 41 higher than we and the market expected The data support our view that the PBoC will maintain its prudentneutral monetary policy stance for now while watching closely for downside risks to growth We reiterate our view that RRR cuts should be regarded as a fine-tuning tool used to stabilise liquidity Chinarsquos December M2 growth rebounded sharply to 136 yy from 127 in November This has contributed to the better-than-expected December PMI (503 vs consensus 491) and may lead to a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP

Monetary policy

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 60 as expected by the consensus but against our view of a 25bp cut Our base case remains 25-50bp of cuts but these will be a function of inflation prints the external environment and FX movements Poland also kept its policy rate unchanged this week at 45 as expected by us and consensus

Hungary Hungarian assets (FX credit and local yield) have rallied as the market is pricing in an increased likelihood that a deal with the IMF and EU can ultimately be secured Following our recent visit to Budapest we remain uncertain about the governments plans and hence do not think there is enough evidence yet to turn bullish Hungarian assets Even at best we think negotiations with the IMF and EU are not likely to be smooth

What we think

EM assets The wall of worry is shrinking as investor perceptions of recession risks are further eased by the flow of data from the US and China Moreover while concerns in EM over contagion from the euro area will linger the recent strong bond and bill auctions in the latter are still likely to be used as a cue to put cash to work in the former The supply in both external and local EM bond markets is picking up holding back a larger rally

What we like

Asset class Trade Rationale

Local Bonds

Long SA R157 receive TIIE 1y1y (Jun14 Mbonos)

We recommend longs in South Africa where economic fundamentals are strong and yields are high we select the belly of the curve which is not as exposed to global beta risks In Mexico we continue to think that there is margin for disappointment in Q4 growth which could push short-end rates lower as recent data have been weaker than expected With the market pricing 80bp of cumulative tightening in 24m and considering that risks to global growth are tilted to the downside we recommend 1y1y forward TIIE receivers and Jun14 MBono longs

FX Short AUDBRL

The position has attractive carry and should benefit if the BCB as we expect is not as dovish as previously thought while we see risks of a more aggressive easing cycle from the RBA if the global PMI does not improve We also favour the BRL due to its proximity to the US and are cautious about the AUD as we think it under-prices the tail risk of a hard landing in China

Figure 1 The AUD and BRL have been closely linked until recently

Figure 2 We believe Banxico will cut rates in Q1 12 supporting yields

060

070

080

090

100

110

120

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1204

045

05

055

06

065

07

AUDUSD BRLUSD

-060

-040

-020

000

020

040

060

080

100

1m 3m 6m 9m 12m

Priced in by Market BarCap Forecast



12 January 2012 3





Koon Chow +44 (0)20 7773 7572

koonchowbarcapcom



Andreas Kolbe +44 (0)20 3134 3134





50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Copper Aluminum Oil


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


EM EMU US






12 January 2012 4






fixed income




ItalySpain

France

Belgium

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2y bond yields ()

2s10

s sp

read

(bp

)

Last

1month ago

BRL

TRY

KRW

ZAR

HUF

PLN

MYR

IDRTHB PHP

RUB

MXN

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 4 6 8 10 12

5y Local Bond Yield

5y C

DS

spre

ad

Last

1 month ago



credit space


12 January 2012 5









FX trades


longreceived



12 January 2012 6




12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

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OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 3





Koon Chow +44 (0)20 7773 7572

koonchowbarcapcom



Andreas Kolbe +44 (0)20 3134 3134





50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Copper Aluminum Oil


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


EM EMU US






12 January 2012 4






fixed income




ItalySpain

France

Belgium

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2y bond yields ()

2s10

s sp

read

(bp

)

Last

1month ago

BRL

TRY

KRW

ZAR

HUF

PLN

MYR

IDRTHB PHP

RUB

MXN

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 4 6 8 10 12

5y Local Bond Yield

5y C

DS

spre

ad

Last

1 month ago



credit space


12 January 2012 5









FX trades


longreceived



12 January 2012 6




12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

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OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 4






fixed income




ItalySpain

France

Belgium

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2y bond yields ()

2s10

s sp

read

(bp

)

Last

1month ago

BRL

TRY

KRW

ZAR

HUF

PLN

MYR

IDRTHB PHP

RUB

MXN

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 4 6 8 10 12

5y Local Bond Yield

5y C

DS

spre

ad

Last

1 month ago



credit space


12 January 2012 5









FX trades


longreceived



12 January 2012 6




12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 5









FX trades


longreceived



12 January 2012 6




12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 6




12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 7










Jian Chang +852 2903 2654

jianchangbarcapcom


global PMIs





-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230

40

50

60



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


-30

-10

10

30

50


yy USDbn





12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 8









14800

15000

15200

15400

15600

15800

16000


3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350


-90

-70-50

-30

-1010

30

5070

90


30

40

50

60

70

80






12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 9












-04

-02

00

02

04


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises

-05

-03

-01

01

03


z-score 3mma

Downside surprises

Upside surprises








12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 10








inflation path




cutting rates



12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 11




















12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 12














cuts down the road




12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 13















-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Average Median



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2006 2011-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15





12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 14

STRATEGY FOCUS FX





070

080

090

100

110








Nick Verdi +65 6308 3093

nickverdibarcapcom




12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 15





CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -04 -10 -25

HKD 776 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5274 5300 5100 4900 4800 -03 -53 -102 -138

IDR 9228 9050 8950 8800 8500 -16 -39 -67 -123

KRW 1164 1125 1100 1075 1025 -33 -58 -82 -126

MYR 316 312 310 295 284 -12 -21 -72 -112

PHP 4431 4300 4280 4250 4200 -26 -33 -42 -56

SGD 130 128 127 125 122 -11 -19 -33 -54

THB 3180 3100 3060 2975 2850 -22 -38 -69 -115

TWD 3023 3000 3000 2950 2750 -06 -04 -16 -76





Entry


ATM vol Entry

Current closed

New trades



Open trades



Closed trades


1325 1250 25bp 186bp



1132 1352 18bp 0bp



12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 16



Long MYRTWD











12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 17











avantisavebarcapcom






12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 18




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80
















12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 19


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Underweight



12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 20


Weight Commentary

Underweight



Weight Commentary

Neutral



12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 21




IDR trn

Deficit 2012 (a) 1240


- External 473


- Domestic loan 01





Debt (Gross) 2956


- Program loan 153

- Project loan 390

- Domestic loan 10












12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 22



Longer-dated bonds




Retail bonds



2010 2011 2012







12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 23















for the markets



PDVSA 14 - Boden 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


bp

PD13

PD14

PD15

PD16

PD17N

PD17PD22

PD27PD37

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average Life




12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 24











12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 25




stop Analyst

Credit (6)







FX (10)











Rates (15)



















12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 26

FX VIEWS ON A PAGE


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging Asia


073 415


051 395




033 375




032 315




018 290


Long MYRTWD 3m NDF

003 265


-017 260

Latin America


MXN Neutral



016 295

BRL Neutral



CLP Neutral


011 235


001 160


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 27


Vol adj 6m returns

Score (1-5)

Emerging EMEA


078 370


Short TRYlong ZAR

019 325


Short TRYlong ZAR

022 310




-010 300




Long EURshort RON

003 280


Long ILSShort CZK

004 240







12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 28



1w 2012 QTD

2012 YTD

3m F Buying Selling





12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 29





EM Local 451 606 1380993 100 10000 10000 027 -587 180 374






Peru 820 603 10962 1 074 010 under 044 1225 1252 061 May 15

EEMEA 433 682 398825 29 2908 2320 under 050 -1429 -803 110


Hungary 342 941 25952 2 222 101 under 424 -2907 -1412 -095 13E 14D



Russia 425 771 62220 5 470 320 under 059 -1080 054 621



EM Asia 508 394 612695 44 4247 4361 neutral -047 -100 580 520









12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 30





China M2 ( yy) Dec 127 123 136
















1430 India WPI ( yy) Dec 100 97 91 74 74









1000 China GDP ( yy) Q4 97 95 91 85 87









12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 31








12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 32













1300 Poland CPI yy Dec 39 43 48 47 46










12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 33





1630 Israel CPI ( yy) Dec 29 27 26 25 24




























12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

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OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 34
















- Peru GDP yy Nov 76 58 51 57 -















12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 35














12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 36




G7 countries

EUR 128 135 130 125 120 53 14 -26 -67

JPY 768 750 750 780 800 -23 -22 19 49

GBP 153 157 155 152 150 25 12 -06 -18

CHF 094 092 096 104 108 -26 18 105 154

CAD 102 103 105 105 102 09 27 25 -07

AUD 103 097 098 101 102 -56 -40 -02 25

NZD 079 077 079 082 083 -26 03 48 73

Emerging Asia

CNY 632 632 630 627 618 01 -02 -07 -22

HKD 777 778 778 778 778 02 02 02 02

INR 5158 5300 5100 4900 4800 20 -31 -82 -120

IDR 9170 9050 8950 8800 8500 -17 -37 -64 -121

KRW 1158 1125 1100 1075 1025 -25 -50 -75 -120

LKR 11382 11420 11380 11350 11300 -03 -17 -33 -08

MYR 314 312 310 295 284 -07 -17 -68 -109

PHP 4398 4300 4280 4250 4200 -24 -30 -38 -52

SGD 129 128 127 125 122 -08 -16 -30 -51

THB 3163 3100 3060 2975 2850 -27 -43 -73 -119

TWD 2997 3000 3000 2950 2750 06 10 -03 -64

VND 21035 21000 21650 21650 22000 -23 00 -25 -67

Latin America

ARS 431 435 445 460 540 -04 -07 -16 45

BRL 178 184 185 180 170 22 16 -28 -112

CLP 500 513 515 500 490 22 19 -19 -53

MXN 1360 1375 1380 1330 1290 09 07 -37 -82

COP 1846 1870 1870 1860 1850 12 09 -02 -18

PEN 269 270 270 268 264 01 -02 -14 -36

EEMEA

EURCZK 2559 2575 2600 2575 2525 06 16 06 -14

EURHUF 309 312 320 320 300 08 27 17 -66

EURPLN 441 455 470 445 435 27 55 -10 -46

EURRON 434 438 450 440 435 07 26 -02 -39

USDRUB 3158 3080 3050 3000 3050 -29 -47 -74 -83

BSKRUB 3558 3565 3462 3338 3325 -02 -39 -86 -114

USDTRY 185 184 190 185 180 -16 02 -46 -109

USDZAR 806 815 820 780 750 07 04 -58 -118

USDILS 383 385 385 383 360 03 01 -06 -67

USDEGP 604 600 620 650 700 -49 -56 -44 -17

USDUAH 804 803 810 815 820 -21 -56 -101 -188



12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 37





Advanced




Emerging Asia






















Latin America








12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89


12 January 2012 38



























































Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

OLE_LINK33

OLE_LINK38

OLE_LINK39

OLE_LINK40

OLE_LINK41

OLE_LINK43

OLE_LINK87

OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89




Word Bookmarks

OLE_LINK1

OLE_LINK2

OLE_LINK16

OLE_LINK13

OLE_LINK20

OLE_LINK17

OLE_LINK18

OLE_LINK12

OLE_LINK14

OLE_LINK10

OLE_LINK3

OLE_LINK4

OLE_LINK5

OLE_LINK54

OLE_LINK6

OLE_LINK7

OLE_LINK72

OLE_LINK73

OLE_LINK8

OLE_LINK81

OLE_LINK83

OLE_LINK9

OLE_LINK111

OLE_LINK19

OLE_LINK21

OLE_LINK28

OLE_LINK29

OLE_LINK32

OLE_LINK34

OLE_LINK35

OLE_LINK51

OLE_LINK71

OLE_LINK75

OLE_LINK80

OLE_LINK82

OLE_LINK84

OLE_LINK85

OLE_LINK86

OLE_LINK11

OLE_LINK15

OLE_LINK22

OLE_LINK23

OLE_LINK24

OLE_LINK25

OLE_LINK26

OLE_LINK27

OLE_LINK30

OLE_LINK31

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OLE_LINK88

OLE_LINK89

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