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THE ECONOMIC BULLETIN OCTOBER 2016 VOLUME 9 - ISSUE 148 (continued Page 3) Cash-Waqf… origins, applications and prospects MARKET MONITOR SECTOR MONITOR CURRENT ISSUE TRADE MONITOR Innovation has been a key driver of growth in Islamic finance, as new sharia-compliant financial products come to address the constant demand from the growing Muslim population and their ever rising financial needs and aspirations. The re-emergence “Waqf” or “Endowments” segment has lately received a lot of attention from both individuals and institutions as it comes to complement and support existing Islamic finance segments such as Islamic Banking, Takaful (insurance), Sukuk (bonds) and Islamic Funds. This article sheds the light on the concept of waqf, and focuses on its cash-waqf sub-segment in particular by going over its definition, explaining its applications and evaluating the prospects for further use and development.

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THE ECONOMIC

BULLETIN OCTOBER 2016

VOLUME 9 - ISSUE 148

(continued Page 3)

Cash-Waqf…origins, applications and prospects

MARKET MONITOR SECTOR MONITORCURRENT ISSUE TRADE MONITOR

Innovation has been a key driver of growth in Islamic finance, as new sharia-compliant financial products come to address the constant demand from the growing Muslim population and their ever rising financial needs and aspirations. The re-emergence “Waqf” or “Endowments” segment has lately received a lot of attention from both individuals and institutions as it comes to complement and support existing Islamic finance

segments such as Islamic Banking, Takaful (insurance), Sukuk (bonds) and Islamic Funds.

This article sheds the light on the concept of waqf, and focuses on its cash-waqf sub-segment in particular by going over its definition, explaining its applications and evaluating the prospects for further use and development.

2

For More Information Kindly Contact:Mr. TARIQ AL HASSANEconomic Research Department, Tel.: 04-2028476, Fax: 04-2028478www.dubaichamber.com, e-mail:[email protected], P.O. Box: 1457, Dubai, U.A.E.

Reports accessible at Dubai Chamber website: www.dubaichamber.com and the Information Center of the Chamber.

1. EconomicResearchDepartment(2016)Dubai–RotterdamSynergies(ReferenceNo.07-02-01-16)

2. EconomicResearchDepartment(2016)WestAfricaRegion–MajorCitiesRanking(ReferenceNo.06-02-01-16)

3. EconomicResearchDepartment(2016)BusinessOpportunitiesinNetherlands(ReferenceNo.05-02-01-16)

4. EconomicResearchDepartment(2016)TradeandInvestmentOpportunitiesinSouthAfrica(ReferenceNo.04–02-1–16)

5. EconomicResearchDepartment(2016)Economic&BusinessProspects–LatinAmerica(ReferenceNo.02-02-01-16)

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25. EconomicResearchDepartment(2015)UAEFood&BeverageMarket(ReferenceNo.05-02-01-15)

The fact that cash-waqf provides flexibility in capital utilization compared to Zakat, which has defined and specific uses, makes it a potentially powerful social investment tool.

Prospects for further financial innovationIt is estimated that philanthropic giving in Muslim communities exceeds $500 billion annually (including zakat, sadaka, and waqf). The fact that cash-waqf provides flexibility in capital utilization compared to Zakat, which has defined and specific uses, makes it a potentially powerful social investment tool.

Given that such a large pool of capital remains under-served the waqf fund, or institution, still has a lot of potential to further develop its offerings and grow its contributions to the Islamic finance industry and society as a whole. This segment’s potential remains largely untapped and a large portion of existing waqf properties sit idle or suffer from mismanagement and underutilization.

According to the International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance (INCEIF) a number of other challenges still need to be addressed through regulation and product innovation include areas such as:• Lack of promotion: cash-waqf remains largely unknown

to the majority of the population, and actual contributions remain very limited due to this hurdle.

• Project costs: costs associated with investments couldpotentially erode the fund’s capital; and due to the social nature of such projects, returns may not be realized and the fund risks depletion.

• Lack of standardization: there are no unified standardsand regulations, or best practices guides on waqf fund management.

The emirate of Dubai, under its government’s vision of becoming the capital of the global Islamic economy, is well positioned to play a leading role in spreading awareness about cash-waqf and further developing its use in Islamic finance; and global events such as the Global Islamic Economy Summit (GIES) serve as great platforms for scholars, policy makers and fund managers to discuss the areas of regulation and standardization that would unlock the true potential of this promising segment.

The concept of waqfWaqf is defined as an endowment or a charitable trust set up for sharia-compliant purposes such as constructing and operating schools, shelters, hospitals, mosques, highways and other public utilities. It involves tying up a property in perpetuity so that it cannot be sold, inherited, or donated to anyone.

Through its financial support it manages to provide varieties of goods and services needed in society through 2 major modes of investing and financing, as seen in table 1.

The emergence of cash-waqfCash-waqf has only recently started receiving attention of governments and financial institutions; yet, literatures on the origin of cash-waqf have traced its mechanism back to the 8th century, and showed that its usage was highest by the Ottoman Empire during the 15th and 16th centuries; when the government operations of health, education and welfare services depended entirely on gifts and endowments.

However, the re-emergence of cash-waqf in its contemporary form is linked to the “Cash-Waqf Certificate” introduced in 1995 by Social Islamic Bank Limited in Bangladesh. Suchcertificate basically aimed to collect funds from the rich and to distribute gains of the managed funds between the poor.

The objectives of this “Cash-Waqf Certificate” could be summarized as follows:1. To equip banks and other Waqf management institutions

with Cash Waqf Certificate;2. To help collect social savings through Cash-Waqf Certificate

(cash-Waqf certification can be done in the name of other family member to strengthen family integration among rich families);

3. To help transform the collected social savings to social capital, as well as to help develop social capital market;

4. To increase social investment;5. To increase rich communities’ awareness on their

responsibility for social development in their environment; and

6. To stimulate integration between social security and social welfare.

Based on these objectives, several cash-waqf models have been introduced later on to further integrate the cash-waqf into the economy and society in general.

Applications of cash-waqfCash-waqf schemes have been gaining momentum over the past 2 decades, and there are currently 9 different models being applied across different Muslim countries in addition to a number of Muslim minority countries and organizations.

3

Table 1: Waqf investing and financing modes

Source: INCEIF

Table 2: cash-waqf models and theirusage (by country)

Source: INCEIF

Immovable waqf property Movable waqf property

1. Al Hikr (long term lease right) 1. Renting (jewelry)

2. Al Ijaratain (lease with dual payment) 2. Exchange (crops)

3. Al Istibdal (substitution) 3. Mudharaba (cash money)

4. Al Mursad (advance lump sum)

Model Country / Organization

1. Waqf Shares ModelMalaysia, Indonesia, UK, Sudan, Kuwait

2. Waqf Takaful Model Malaysia

3.Direct ModelUAE, Malaysia, Singapore, USA, Bahrain, South Africa, Pakistan, IDB, OPEC

4. Mobile Model Malaysia, Kuwait

5. Corporate Cash-Waqf ModelMalaysia, Turkey, Pakistan, Sudan

6. Compulsory Model Singapore

7. Deposit Product Model Bangladesh

8. Co-Operative Model Uzbekistan

9. Waqf Mutual Fund Model Indonesia

44

Diversifying the UAE’s rice re-exports

The role of the UAE in global rice marketRice is one of the favorite food staples in the UAE, because of the high density of Asian population and affordability as well as availability of the product. Although the UAE’s per capita income is in the range of developed countries, rice is not seen as an inferior good by the population. The country’s average per consumption of rice is well above of the world average of 64kg per year.

The UAE is the world’s largest re-exporter of rice accounting for 79% of global rice re-exports. During 2004-2015, on average nearly 33% of Dubai imported rice was re-exported to the rest of the world. In 2015, top destinations for Dubai’s rice re-exportsincludedIran(79%),Oman(6%),Libya(4%),Yemen(2%), the USA (1%) and other countries (8%).

However, sanctions on Iran which started in 2011 and sharp drop of Iranian Rial decreased the rice imports from the UAE and pushed down the total UAE’s rice re-exports (Figure 3). Starting from 2014, the country’s rice re-exports started to grow due to the diversification in the re-exports towards Middle East countries.

Business opportunities in rice trade Sales of rice in the UAE have increased by 48.6% between 2010 and 2015, reaching their highest level of AED1.38 billion in 2015. According to Euromonitor, sales of rice in the UAE are expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.9% over the next five years, due to the growing population of Asian emigrants.

In particular, Indians and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nationals, who represent the largest part of the population, are in favor of Basmati rice imported from India and Pakistan. Moreover, other Arab expatriates, prefer calrose rice, but there is also increasing demand for brown and wild rice.

The UAE plays a significant role in international rice trade due to its competitive logistic services, the ease of custom procedures, and because of its strategic position between global production, export and consumption areas of rice in South East Asia and the rest of the world. However, over the last decade, the UAE’s rice re-exports were mainly depended on Iran’s demand. Considering the growing imports of rice in other countries, there are many opportunities for Dubai traders to diversify their rice exports towards other countries, particularly to Sub-Saharan Africa and GCC regions. In addition, since about 92% of the UAE’s rice imports come from India and Pakistan, Dubai based traders could also diversify their rice suppliers to include countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which are expected to become one of the biggest suppliers in the world in the near future, due to the large rice surpluses.

Rice is one of the three leading food crops in the world, together with wheat and corn. Human consumption accounts for 85% of total rice production and rice provides 21% of global human per capita energy. Nearly 80% of rice is produced and consumed in Asia, but outside Asia the fastest growth of consumption is in Sub-Saharan countries and it grows steadily in the USA as well as in the EU. In global rice trade, the top four exporters, accounting for nearly 73% of global rice trade, are from Asia. However, rice imports are quite fragmented, meaning top ten rice importers account for less than 50% of world’s imports. The UAE is one of the largest per capita consumers of rice in the world, because of Asian expatriates and the country has been the top global re-exporter of rice over the last decade. This article looks at the trends of rice trade in the world as well as in the UAE, and will identify new business opportunities for Dubai traders in the global rice market.

Rice world price and tradeGlobal rice prices have been low since August 2014 due to excess supply and depreciation of the currencies in several major rice exporting countries. However, droughts brought by the El Nino climate cycle and falling inventories increased rice prices by 28% between December 2015 and July 2016 (Figure 1).

Global rice trade now stands at around 42 million tonnes and it is nearly 8.5% of the global rice production. Rice is mainly supplied by India, Pakistan, Thailand, USA and Vietnam. According to the International Grain Council (IGC), Thailand had the highest share of around 24% in 2015/16 marketing year in rice export and the country is expected to remain the biggest rice supplier for the next five years. In addition, the role of Cambodia and Myanmar is expected to grow in global rice export, due to the improvement in infrastructure, logistics and quality.

The world rice imports increased at a CAGR of 1.7% from the mid-2011 to the mid-2016. Furthermore, China is the largest rice importer in the world, followed by Nigeria, the Philippine, Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, according to IGC, China’s imports are expected to decline by 24% for the next five years, because of increase in incomes and changes in diets to higher value products. On the other hand, IGC projects that from 2015/16 to 2020/21 the rice imports of Sub-Saharan and Far East Asian countries are projected to grow at a CAGR of 2% and 0.4%, respectively (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Regional rice imports, million tonnes.

Source: DCCI, International Grain Council

Figure 3. Dubai’s rice trade (million AED)

Source: DCCI, Dubai Customs

Figure 1: Monthly rice prices- Thai 5%, white ($/metric ton)

Source: DCCI, World Bank

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-1

4

Jan-15

Mar-1

5

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-1

5

Jan-16

Mar-1

6

May-1

6

Jul-16

US$

per m

etric t

on

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mln

AED

Import Re-export

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16

Sub-Saharan Africa

Far East Asia Near East Asia Others

Mln t

onne

s

2011-2015 (average) 2015/16 (forecast) 2020/21 (projection)

Internet of Things and the opportunity of Smart GovernmentThe concept of Internet of Things (IoT) is related to the development of smart cities and smart government. IoT can be defined as the connection of a range of physical devices over a network. Such connectedness can benefit businesses as it could help optimize resource allocation and improve efficiency. By aiding automation, IoT could also improve system predictability and allow people and systems to learn as well. The UAE’s high rankings in World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 in areas of technological readiness make it an ideal location for growth of IoT and Smart Government services. The UAE ranked at 9th out of 140 economies in availability of new technologies while it ranked at 7th out of 140 economies in firm level technology adoption in the Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016. The UAE also has 114 mobile broadband subscriptions out of every 100 people placing it in 9th rank out of 140 countries. These high rankings could help Dubai realize substantial benefits from implementing IoT in the Dubai public sector (figure 2).

According to data from CISCO Connect 2015, there is possibility of around AED 4.3 billion in Value at Stake or potential value added due to implementation of IoT technologies in the Dubai Public Sector over 5 years. This value also gives an indication about the potential value of implementing smart services by the public sector. Potential opportunities for generating enhanced value through IoT span various services such as smart street lighting, smart parking, smart pay, smart metering of public utilities and management of electricity and water.Awareness is also increasing in parts of Asia and Africa about the potential for smart government services to improve the efficiency of public services. There could therefore be potential for the UAE businesses to export know-how about smart government to other countries. One potential area of synergy is in the implementation of smart services in the area of solar energy, given the high availability of solar energy both in the UAE and Africa. Smart metering services for more efficient resource allocation for water and electricity could be another potential niche area of synergy.

ConclusionTechnological advancement has brought with it both the increased availability and increased demand for Smart Government services in the UAE. In the future the combination of mobile technology and IoT offers potential benefits by offering improved efficiency in service provision together with mobility. By reducing the time taken to access and use public services these innovations have the potential to bring substantial benefit to the UAE economy by making Smart Government services available quickly and easily to all potential users. The connectedness of devices offered by IoT and the availability of large amounts of data has the potential to enable both machine and human learning.

With success in the UAE there is also potential for UAE businesses to export their knowledge to other countries across Asia and Africa. This is because Smart Government services have the potential to reduce the sometimes long process and create ease in using government services, especially in developing countries. Further development of smart services across the government and private sector in the UAE combined with increased interaction with organizations interested in offering smart services in foreign countries could therefore help UAE businesses benefit from potential demand for these services across Asia and Africa.

Smart government can be defined as a set of processes and technologies that enable the provision of high quality government services across various IT platforms. A smart city is a term that encompasses government and private services. A smart city refers to a city of connected digital services that provides private and public services across a range of IT platforms. Examples of smart government and smart city services include smart parking, smart payment systems, smart metering services for provision of utilities such as electricity and water and other smart business services. The concept of smart government has gained importance across the world mainly due to the potential benefits in improving the efficiency and productivity of government services, while simplifying government processes and making it easier for residents to access government services. In the UAE as well smart public services have made public services more accessible to residents. Further use of smart government services by residents, especially via mobile phones, has the potential of boosting both efficiency and productivity. This article provides an overview of some important trends in the UAE Smart Government sector and highlights potential business opportunities for UAE businesses in possible growth in demand for smart services across Asia and Africa.

UAE Smart GovernmentThe UAE has become a leader in adoption of smart services. In this regard, the Smart Dubai Government Establishment has led to delivery of world class smart infrastructure and services in Dubai. Data from the Smart Dubai Government Establishment shows strong growth in services such as eSurvey, ePay and especially in mPay from 2013 to 2015. Smart Dubai has also been created as an entity which aims to introduce strategic initiatives and develop partnerships to contribute to its various dimensions to help in the making Dubai a Smart City. Some of Smart Dubai’s initiatives include Dubai Data and the Smart Dubai Index. These smart services have the potential to make it easier to do business in Dubai as they allow for faster and more convenient service provision and also could enable a feedback cycle where clients can give recommendations for continuous improvement. These smart services therefore could make government services both more efficient and more adaptable. The growth of smart services such as mPay has been possible due to the strong adoption of mobile technology in the UAE. According to data from Business Monitor International’s (BMI) United Arab Emirates Telecommunication report Q3 2016, the UAE has around 17 million mobile phone subscribers with some users having more than one mobile phone (figure 1). While the overall number of cellular mobile phone is forecasted to possibly increase, the number of subscribers of newer 3G and 4G services is forecasted to possibly experience faster growth, as this technology replaces older mobile phone technology.

The increased use of mobile phone technologies is a key element in greater adoption of smart services as they allow for services to be offered anywhere while the user is mobile. According to information from the GSM Association, real time data from mobile phone networks could be very useful for smart city services. In the future, greater use of 3G and 4G could further boost the use of smart government services in the UAE.

5

Dubai Smart Government sector

Figure 1. UAE Mobile telephone subscribers forecast (000)

Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from BMI UAE Telecommunication Report, Q3 2016, Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and Telecom operators. Forecast provides possible numbers under one scenario.

Figure 2. IOT Possible 5 year Value at Stake for Dubai Public sector (AED million)

Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from ‘Dubai Smart City: IOE value at stake in the Public sector’, CISCO Connect 2015. Forecasts based on assumption of 60% adoption rate for most services

0 4,000 8,000

12,000 16,000 20,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cellular Mobile Phone Subscribers, thousands 3G & 4G phone subscribers, thousands

City Management (water, electricity etc)

Other uses (health, learning, smart pay etc)

Transport (street lighting, parking, buses)

Public sector productivity (telework etc)

378

949

1,094

1892

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

6

2. Imported F&B products in the domestic marketBeing the region’s trade hub, products imported by Dubai are not wholly for local consumption. A significant part of imported goods find their way to markets in other countries in the region, and even beyond. Adjusted for estimated import prices of goods that had eventually been re-exported, Table 1 presents the estimated value of imported F&B products retained in the domestic market of Dubai and of the UAE in 2014 and 2015.Of the total F&B imports in 2015, 75% were estimated to have been retained in the domestic market, valued at AED 26.5 billion or 4% lower than the corresponding estimated value of AED 27.6 billion in 2014. By type of product, differentials in the shares for domestic consumption could be noted. Estimated value of imported Edible fruits and nuts (including peel of citrus fruit and melons) in the domestic market of AED 5.2 billion accounted for 70% of the total import of the product group during the year, posting annual growth of 7%. Imported Edible vegetables and roots and tubers in the domestic market rose by 26% in 2015, to an estimated value of AED 3.1 billion, equivalent to 83% of total import value. Being perishable, Meat and edible meat offal are imported for domestic consumption. In 2015, imports of Meat and edible meat offal declined very slightly to AED 2.9 billion. However, with the share retained in the domestic market rising to 97%, the value of imported goods belonging to the group available in the domestic market rose by 1% to AED 2.8 billion.With domestic production of Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible animal products, nec increasing, import of the products dropped by 14% in 2015. The share of products retained in the domestic market likewise declined to 86%, leading to a drop of 18% in the total value of imported products in the domestic market to AED 2.6 billion. Similar patterns could be noted in other product groups, including Coffee, tea, mate and spices and Cereals/Milling products. The latter group consisted mainly of rice, with a significant portion being re-exported for an estimated 58% retention rate in the domestic market. Thus, despite the 27% rise in the total import value, a 13% drop on the value retained in the domestic market was recorded to an estimated value of AED 2.0 billion.

Imported food products for household consumption in the domestic market are important to the sustenance of consuming behavior of the population of Dubai, and of the UAE as a whole. The trading pattern highlighted in the above discussions point to the stability of the trading activities of Dubai in ensuring that the market supply remains steady.

Food and beverages (F&B) are basic consumption items of households, as reflected by the inelastic demand for the goods. On the average, expenditures on F&B consumed at home and in other eating places account for more than 15% of total household consumption expenditures in Dubai. With limited agricultural activities and relatively small food manufacturing sector, it is not surprising to note that the local market is awash with imported food and beverages to meet the demand of increasing population. Indeed, recent import data into the domestic market showed an increasing trend, with total annual import of food and beverages for household consumption rising from AED 28 billion in 2012 to AED 35 billion in 2015. Fig. 1 shows, however, that re-exports rose significantly in 2015, resulting to estimated lower value of F&B retained in the local market for domestic consumption to AED 27 billion, from AED 28 billion in 2014. The trend, however, is not indicative of declining consumption. Instead, the rising export is an indicator of expanding manufacturing sector, leading to increasing locally manufactured F&B products in the local market.

Major import partners Dubai’s maturity in international trading could be discerned from the patterns of its global trade showing the Emirate to be directly importing F&B goods from the major global producers/exporters, taking into consideration the cross-border proximity advantage. For example, the advantages of importing from India not only arise from proximity of the country, but also because India is a major producer of rice, tea, spices and other agricultural produce. On the other hand, the European countries are large producers of manufactured consumer goods, while Brazil, New Zealand and Australia are global suppliers of meat and meat products. The USA supplies the world a wide range of F&B products, ranging from agricultural produce to variety of manufactured consumer goods.Fig. 2 presents Dubai’s top ten partners for consumer F&B imported into the domestic market in 2015, and their respective shares to the total import value. The high level of diversity with respect to import sources could be noted, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of concentration at only 540 index points. Indeed, highest import share which was recorded for India was only 16%, followed by 10% for USA and 6% from Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZ). Imports of Dubai’s domestic market from JAFZ consisted of the zone’s imported goods from other countries and manufactured goods by companies located therein. The remaining 7 countries in the top 10 import sources each recorded shares of only 3% to 4%; while all the other import partners had a significant combined share of 44%.

Stability of supply of imported Food and Beverages in Dubai market

Fig. 1. Dubai’s trade in F&B for household, 2012 – 2015

Source of data: Dubai Customs, classified using UNSD’s Broad Economic Classification (BEC)

Fig. 2. Dubai’s top 10 import partners for consumer F&B, 2015

Source of data: Dubai Customs

22.8 25.0 27.6 26.5

5.4 5.6 6.2 8.7 6.4

7.5 7.4 7.5

2012 2013 2014 2015

Export, AED bn Re-exported, AED bnDomestic consumption, AED bn

India16%USA, 10%

Jebel Ali FZ, 6%

New Zealand, 4%

Australia, 4%

Brazil, 4%

Pakistan, 3%South Africa, 3%

France, 3%China, 3%

Others, 44%

Table 1. Estimated value of imported F&B for householdconsumption in the domestic market, share to total imports

and annual growth by group, 2014-2015

Product Group2014 2015

ValuesAED mn

ValuesAED mn Share Growth

Total 27,633 26,534 75% -4%Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons

4,848 5,205 70% 7%

Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers

2,466 3,115 83% 26%

Meat and edible meat offal 2,769 2,810 97% 1%Dairy products, eggs, honey, ed-ible animal product, nes

3,168 2,603 86% -18%

Coffee, tea, mate and spices 2,544 2,314 71% -9%Cereals/Milling products 2,323 2,025 58% -13%Cereal, flour, starch, milk prepara-tions and products

1,576 1,585 83% 1%

Vegetable, fruit, nut, etc food preparations

1,335 1,233 81% -8%

Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates, nes

1,149 1,115 93% -3%

Sugars and sugar confectionery 1,036 1,066 76% 3%Cocoa and cocoa preparations 971 966 81% -1%Beverages, spirits and vinegar 992 942 86% -5%Miscellaneous edible preparations 1,566 818 39% -48%

Meat, fish and seafood food prepa-rations nes

638 559 79% -12%

Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc

252 177 63% -30%

Source of input data: Dubai Customs