the ebro delta and rest-coast (green deal eu project)
TRANSCRIPT
field_ac_brussels_02_2011Prof. A. Sanchez-Arcilla
([email protected])
BarcelonaTech UPC Flooded pre-Gloria Flooded by Gloria
1. Ebro delta vulnerability 2. Restoration objectives 3. Pilots in REST-COAST 4. Ebro delta application 5. The way ahead
Silliman et al, 2016
(Bayraktarov et al, 2020)
Pristine coast (apparently)
VULNERABILITY CAUSES: WATER/SED DEFICITS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Pulsating Sl
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 duración (horas)
0
40
80
120
160
Duration (hr)
360
380
400
420
440
460
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
118.5185185185
148.1481481481
404.9382716049
404.9382716049
592.5925925926
602.4691358025
790.1234567901
790.1234567901
888.8888888889
987.6543209877
1511.1111111111
1511.1111111111
1935.8024691358
1935.8024691358
2074.0740740741
3762.962962963
4000
5362.962962963
6123.4567901235
6222.2222222222
6271.6049382716
6666.6666666667
6800
6800
Hoja1
Point
1
0.7
0.12
1906
118.5185185185
2
2.2
0.15
1919
148.1481481481
3
2.35
0.41
1921
404.9382716049
4
2.78
0.41
1924
404.9382716049
5
2.9
0.6
1925
592.5925925926
6
3.42
0.61
1930
602.4691358025
7
3.58
0.8
1931
790.1234567901
8
3.79
0.8
1933
790.1234567901
9
4.91
0.9
1943
888.8888888889
10
5.16
1
1945
987.6543209877
11
5.31
1.53
1947
1511.1111111111
12
6.5
1.53
1957
1511.1111111111
13
6.6
1.96
1958
1935.8024691358
14
6.73
1.96
1959
1935.8024691358
15
6.85
2.1
1960
2074.0740740741
16
7.09
3.81
1962
3762.962962963
17
7.42
4.05
1965
4000
18
7.98
5.43
1970
5362.962962963
19
8.1
6.2
1971
6123.4567901235
20
8.21
6.3
1972
6222.2222222222
21
8.8
6.35
1977
6271.6049382716
22
8.91
6.75
1978
6666.6666666667
23
9.47
6.885
1983
6800
24
11.08
6.885
1997
6800
Year
118.5185185185
464.7113890537
148.1481481481
461.9601628012
404.9382716049
454.0470910283
404.9382716049
447.5277639402
592.5925925926
442.2957631809
602.4691358025
442.0005842523
790.1234567901
436.2857400556
790.1234567901
432.7356278941
888.8888888889
430.6494098853
987.6543209877
428.7721689491
1511.1111111111
428.1093585801
1511.1111111111
426.6741388051
1935.8024691358
427.3047718223
1935.8024691358
425.2880762115
2074.0740740741
421.7832129507
3762.962962963
417.2530319251
4000
418.5803509369
5362.962962963
413.1746546064
6123.4567901235
409.3401796632
6222.2222222222
408.5233049205
6271.6049382716
407.5514262927
6666.6666666667
6800
6800
406.8435988491
405.0261688086
405.3176957175
403.0410023104
405.7567305466
403.4979198367
406.8612041255
409.7775575097
408.7206265845
395.7232005089
387.3277403925
378.9990936131
373.9738781769
370.8515662814
371.7017694798
364.8977965334
362.5567602093
358.3117065174
351.6721423968
348.0153008261
344.1827934681
334.0808644591
331.3423676759
329.5965588213
325.2278686352
327.7113030666
320.3007608025
308.7348387794
297.4722519513
296.3332558391
296.1600485912
299.6712811031
290.8015923364
287.4947003299
279.9858524029
284.6298642316
289.8533574838
263.9775107793
275.2946169457
290.7924967586
289.6881341958
303.6486700007
299.1115761881
303.4730695079
317.1742135972
314.1181295451
263.0963723998
201.135210553
Hoja3
Year
1906
118.5185185185
1913.5
464.7113890537
1919
148.1481481481
1914.5
461.9601628012
1921
404.9382716049
1915.5
454.0470910283
1924
404.9382716049
1916.5
447.5277639402
1925
592.5925925926
1917.5
442.2957631809
1930
602.4691358025
1918.5
442.0005842523
1931
790.1234567901
1919.5
436.2857400556
1933
790.1234567901
1920.5
432.7356278941
1943
888.8888888889
1921.5
430.6494098853
1945
987.6543209877
1922.5
428.7721689491
1947
1511.1111111111
1923.5
428.1093585801
1957
1511.1111111111
1924.5
426.6741388051
1958
1935.8024691358
1925.5
427.3047718223
1959
1935.8024691358
1926.5
425.2880762115
1960
2074.0740740741
1927.5
421.7832129507
1962
3762.962962963
1928.5
417.2530319251
1965
4000
1929.5
418.5803509369
1970
5362.962962963
1930.5
413.1746546064
1971
6123.4567901235
1931.5
409.3401796632
1972
6222.2222222222
1932.5
408.5233049205
1977
6271.6049382716
1933.5
407.5514262927
1978
6666.6666666667
1934.5
1983
6800
1935.5
1997
6800
1936.5
1937.5
1938.5
57.375
1939.5
1940.5
1941.5
1942.5
1943.5
1944.5
1945.5
1946.5
1947.5
1948.5
1949.5
1950.5
1951.5
406.8435988491
1952.5
405.0261688086
1953.5
405.3176957175
1954.5
403.0410023104
1955.5
405.7567305466
1956.5
403.4979198367
1957.5
406.8612041255
1958.5
409.7775575097
1959.5
408.7206265845
1960.5
395.7232005089
1961.5
387.3277403925
1962.5
378.9990936131
1963.5
373.9738781769
1964.5
370.8515662814
1965.5
371.7017694798
1966.5
364.8977965334
1967.5
362.5567602093
1968.5
358.3117065174
1969.5
351.6721423968
1970.5
348.0153008261
1971.5
344.1827934681
1972.5
334.0808644591
1973.5
331.3423676759
1974.5
329.5965588213
1975.5
325.2278686352
1976.5
327.7113030666
1977.5
320.3007608025
1978.5
308.7348387794
1979.5
297.4722519513
1980.5
296.3332558391
1981.5
296.1600485912
1982.5
299.6712811031
1983.5
290.8015923364
1984.5
287.4947003299
1985.5
279.9858524029
1986.5
284.6298642316
1987.5
289.8533574838
1988.5
263.9775107793
1989.5
275.2946169457
1990.5
290.7924967586
1991.5
289.6881341958
1992.5
303.6486700007
1993.5
299.1115761881
1994.5
303.4730695079
1995.5
317.1742135972
1996.5
314.1181295451
1997.5
263.0963723998
1998.5
201.135210553
Punta Fangar 1957
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
S
VULNERABILITY SYMPTOMS: SPIT WEAKENING
Dilemma: Natural coastal functioning with a regulated river ? Investments: Who pays and who benefits & at which time scale
VULNERABILITY SYMPTOMS: SPIT BREACH FREQUENCY
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 tiempo (años)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Flood prone areas RSLR de 0.6-0.8 m 2100 + 3mm/yr subsidence
Road map: When / How / Where to act, monitor and invest Suggestion: Prepare portfolio of interventions to get ready
Interventions
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE TO
financial arrangements and policies for replicating large-scale restoration adaptation-through restoration plan to fill the implementation gap strategic plan for transformation in governance/policies at all levels
Accelerate transformation for climatic/social vulnerability hotspots
long-term socio-economic commitment support incorporation of restoration into policies
RESTORATION OBJECTIVES (REST-COAST)
Demonstrate the multifarious benefits of ESS and BDV based on
o extended t/s scales (connect river-coast-sea + compatible short/long term actions) linking NBS building blocks in plan for adaptation-through restoration Stepped up bespoke implementation suited to financial/social constraints
Provide technical-financial-governance advances (enablers) to achieve
additional adaptation (risk reduction) additional mitigation (coastal blue C) homogeneous metrics for ESS/BDV increase in coastal/marine protected areas restoration contracts suited to each Pilot
RESTORATION OBJECTIVES (REST-COAST)
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Transfer via Cooperation Board & International Partners
(N Africa, S America and S Asia)
Active (Venice) and Passive (Rhone) hands- on restoration
Wadden Sea
Ebro Delta
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Vistula Lagoon Lagoon/island. Cross-border Baltic Sea (PL/RU) 838 km2 (23.871 km2 catchment) Demonstration New island for BDV and ESS restoration (compensation for dredging impacts) Restored lagoon-sea connectivity & coast
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Rhone Delta Delta/lagoon. Regional Central Med Combined former salt works and high natural values Demonstration From rigid protection to large scale realignment Restored coastal dynamics and connectivity (sea/coast) Hydro-morpho-eco fluxes for ESS & natural recovery
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Global coasts Cost-benefit analysis of risk reduction through restoration, with business opportunities for potential restoration projects, Assessment Costs, benefits, impacts and financing needs Wetland restoration/managed realignment to introduce ESS into coastal adaptation Estimated global and European finance needs
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
River-delta-coast connectivity
Dam by-pass
Coastal back-pass
Buffer/filter from wetlands, seagrass and beach/dune habitats
- Active/passive restoration of habitats for ESS
- Increase emerged beach geodiversity and width
- Wetland development + restoration for ESS and biodiversity
- Adding value to existing restoration (e.g. Bombita)
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
Active/passive restoration for buffer/filter ESS from wetlands: reduction of erosion/flooding risks, enhanced accretion, water quality, blue carbon
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
Kg CO2 emitted
Self regulating capacity
NBS: damped hydromorphodynamics by vegetation. Large scale hydraulic tests for efficient deployment
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 cross-shore distance (m)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
La Marquesa (P33)
tan β = 0.019
Ru ≥ z beach 1. 84 times / year Optimise supply geometry Minimise impacts (salinity...) Buffer effect and natural accretion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: CONNECTIVITY & DYNAMICS
Room for coast with sequenced plan and monitoring (natural accretion, barrier effects…) to reduce flooding and erosion risks
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: CONNECTIVITY & DYNAMICS
NBS linked to resilient breaker bars Hydromorphodynamic damping Require large scale tests for efficiency Do not prevent natural recovery (accretion)
P20
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: DAMPED HYDRO-MORPHO DYN.
SOLUTIONS: Decide based on projections (climate/mgmt. WS) Pre storm Post storm
Riumar area
Z ≥ 1m
Z ≤ 1m
Projections: Future 2050 storm (100 yr) and moderate RSLR Pre storm is flooding only. Post storm adds erosion + flooding
Hs = 4.42 m Tp = 12.5 s 100 yr storm
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: EARLY + CLIMATE WARNINGS
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based decisions (NBS for resilience) RSLR 2100 No surge
Riumar area
Hs = 4.42 m Tp = 12.5 s 100 yr storm
Projections: Future 2100 storm (100 yr) and moderate RSLR Pre storm is flooding only. Post storm adds erosion + flooding
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: EARLY + CLIMATE WARNINGS
EWS developed and tested (2017)
Meteorological Module
Hydrodynamic module
Morphodynamic module
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based (adaptive) nourishments
WARNING APPLICATION: MID TERM TRENDS + ACTIONS
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based (adaptive) bar/bay operation
Extreme overwash and breaching (high storm duration and intensity with storm surge) at Trabucador bar during Gloria (Jan 2020)
WARNING APPLICATION: EXTREMES + ACTIONS
Instrumental time series = 475 yr – Hs = 6.7 m – Δ Hs ≈ 2 m
Numerical time series = 475 yr – Hs = 8.8 m – Δ Hs ≈ 4 m
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
(c m)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Gloria peak
Select forcings according to risk and data Gloria too extreme? (March 2020: 0.40m surge + 0,6m waves)
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: WITH MED VARIABILITY
(Perez et al, 2021; Sanchez-Arcilla et al, 2021)
time
THE WAY AHEAD: CLIMATE AND EARLY WARNINGS
ADAPTATION MITIGATION IMPLEMENTATION
GOVERNANCE POLICIES FUNDING
COASTS IN NDCs
THE WAY AHEAD: COASTAL ADAPTATION/RESTORATION
The Ebro delta and REST-COAST (Green Deal EU project)
Prof. A. Sanchez-Arcilla ([email protected])
BarcelonaTech UPC Flooded pre-Gloria Flooded by Gloria
BarcelonaTech UPC Flooded pre-Gloria Flooded by Gloria
1. Ebro delta vulnerability 2. Restoration objectives 3. Pilots in REST-COAST 4. Ebro delta application 5. The way ahead
Silliman et al, 2016
(Bayraktarov et al, 2020)
Pristine coast (apparently)
VULNERABILITY CAUSES: WATER/SED DEFICITS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Pulsating Sl
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 duración (horas)
0
40
80
120
160
Duration (hr)
360
380
400
420
440
460
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
118.5185185185
148.1481481481
404.9382716049
404.9382716049
592.5925925926
602.4691358025
790.1234567901
790.1234567901
888.8888888889
987.6543209877
1511.1111111111
1511.1111111111
1935.8024691358
1935.8024691358
2074.0740740741
3762.962962963
4000
5362.962962963
6123.4567901235
6222.2222222222
6271.6049382716
6666.6666666667
6800
6800
Hoja1
Point
1
0.7
0.12
1906
118.5185185185
2
2.2
0.15
1919
148.1481481481
3
2.35
0.41
1921
404.9382716049
4
2.78
0.41
1924
404.9382716049
5
2.9
0.6
1925
592.5925925926
6
3.42
0.61
1930
602.4691358025
7
3.58
0.8
1931
790.1234567901
8
3.79
0.8
1933
790.1234567901
9
4.91
0.9
1943
888.8888888889
10
5.16
1
1945
987.6543209877
11
5.31
1.53
1947
1511.1111111111
12
6.5
1.53
1957
1511.1111111111
13
6.6
1.96
1958
1935.8024691358
14
6.73
1.96
1959
1935.8024691358
15
6.85
2.1
1960
2074.0740740741
16
7.09
3.81
1962
3762.962962963
17
7.42
4.05
1965
4000
18
7.98
5.43
1970
5362.962962963
19
8.1
6.2
1971
6123.4567901235
20
8.21
6.3
1972
6222.2222222222
21
8.8
6.35
1977
6271.6049382716
22
8.91
6.75
1978
6666.6666666667
23
9.47
6.885
1983
6800
24
11.08
6.885
1997
6800
Year
118.5185185185
464.7113890537
148.1481481481
461.9601628012
404.9382716049
454.0470910283
404.9382716049
447.5277639402
592.5925925926
442.2957631809
602.4691358025
442.0005842523
790.1234567901
436.2857400556
790.1234567901
432.7356278941
888.8888888889
430.6494098853
987.6543209877
428.7721689491
1511.1111111111
428.1093585801
1511.1111111111
426.6741388051
1935.8024691358
427.3047718223
1935.8024691358
425.2880762115
2074.0740740741
421.7832129507
3762.962962963
417.2530319251
4000
418.5803509369
5362.962962963
413.1746546064
6123.4567901235
409.3401796632
6222.2222222222
408.5233049205
6271.6049382716
407.5514262927
6666.6666666667
6800
6800
406.8435988491
405.0261688086
405.3176957175
403.0410023104
405.7567305466
403.4979198367
406.8612041255
409.7775575097
408.7206265845
395.7232005089
387.3277403925
378.9990936131
373.9738781769
370.8515662814
371.7017694798
364.8977965334
362.5567602093
358.3117065174
351.6721423968
348.0153008261
344.1827934681
334.0808644591
331.3423676759
329.5965588213
325.2278686352
327.7113030666
320.3007608025
308.7348387794
297.4722519513
296.3332558391
296.1600485912
299.6712811031
290.8015923364
287.4947003299
279.9858524029
284.6298642316
289.8533574838
263.9775107793
275.2946169457
290.7924967586
289.6881341958
303.6486700007
299.1115761881
303.4730695079
317.1742135972
314.1181295451
263.0963723998
201.135210553
Hoja3
Year
1906
118.5185185185
1913.5
464.7113890537
1919
148.1481481481
1914.5
461.9601628012
1921
404.9382716049
1915.5
454.0470910283
1924
404.9382716049
1916.5
447.5277639402
1925
592.5925925926
1917.5
442.2957631809
1930
602.4691358025
1918.5
442.0005842523
1931
790.1234567901
1919.5
436.2857400556
1933
790.1234567901
1920.5
432.7356278941
1943
888.8888888889
1921.5
430.6494098853
1945
987.6543209877
1922.5
428.7721689491
1947
1511.1111111111
1923.5
428.1093585801
1957
1511.1111111111
1924.5
426.6741388051
1958
1935.8024691358
1925.5
427.3047718223
1959
1935.8024691358
1926.5
425.2880762115
1960
2074.0740740741
1927.5
421.7832129507
1962
3762.962962963
1928.5
417.2530319251
1965
4000
1929.5
418.5803509369
1970
5362.962962963
1930.5
413.1746546064
1971
6123.4567901235
1931.5
409.3401796632
1972
6222.2222222222
1932.5
408.5233049205
1977
6271.6049382716
1933.5
407.5514262927
1978
6666.6666666667
1934.5
1983
6800
1935.5
1997
6800
1936.5
1937.5
1938.5
57.375
1939.5
1940.5
1941.5
1942.5
1943.5
1944.5
1945.5
1946.5
1947.5
1948.5
1949.5
1950.5
1951.5
406.8435988491
1952.5
405.0261688086
1953.5
405.3176957175
1954.5
403.0410023104
1955.5
405.7567305466
1956.5
403.4979198367
1957.5
406.8612041255
1958.5
409.7775575097
1959.5
408.7206265845
1960.5
395.7232005089
1961.5
387.3277403925
1962.5
378.9990936131
1963.5
373.9738781769
1964.5
370.8515662814
1965.5
371.7017694798
1966.5
364.8977965334
1967.5
362.5567602093
1968.5
358.3117065174
1969.5
351.6721423968
1970.5
348.0153008261
1971.5
344.1827934681
1972.5
334.0808644591
1973.5
331.3423676759
1974.5
329.5965588213
1975.5
325.2278686352
1976.5
327.7113030666
1977.5
320.3007608025
1978.5
308.7348387794
1979.5
297.4722519513
1980.5
296.3332558391
1981.5
296.1600485912
1982.5
299.6712811031
1983.5
290.8015923364
1984.5
287.4947003299
1985.5
279.9858524029
1986.5
284.6298642316
1987.5
289.8533574838
1988.5
263.9775107793
1989.5
275.2946169457
1990.5
290.7924967586
1991.5
289.6881341958
1992.5
303.6486700007
1993.5
299.1115761881
1994.5
303.4730695079
1995.5
317.1742135972
1996.5
314.1181295451
1997.5
263.0963723998
1998.5
201.135210553
Punta Fangar 1957
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
S
VULNERABILITY SYMPTOMS: SPIT WEAKENING
Dilemma: Natural coastal functioning with a regulated river ? Investments: Who pays and who benefits & at which time scale
VULNERABILITY SYMPTOMS: SPIT BREACH FREQUENCY
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 tiempo (años)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Flood prone areas RSLR de 0.6-0.8 m 2100 + 3mm/yr subsidence
Road map: When / How / Where to act, monitor and invest Suggestion: Prepare portfolio of interventions to get ready
Interventions
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE TO
financial arrangements and policies for replicating large-scale restoration adaptation-through restoration plan to fill the implementation gap strategic plan for transformation in governance/policies at all levels
Accelerate transformation for climatic/social vulnerability hotspots
long-term socio-economic commitment support incorporation of restoration into policies
RESTORATION OBJECTIVES (REST-COAST)
Demonstrate the multifarious benefits of ESS and BDV based on
o extended t/s scales (connect river-coast-sea + compatible short/long term actions) linking NBS building blocks in plan for adaptation-through restoration Stepped up bespoke implementation suited to financial/social constraints
Provide technical-financial-governance advances (enablers) to achieve
additional adaptation (risk reduction) additional mitigation (coastal blue C) homogeneous metrics for ESS/BDV increase in coastal/marine protected areas restoration contracts suited to each Pilot
RESTORATION OBJECTIVES (REST-COAST)
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Transfer via Cooperation Board & International Partners
(N Africa, S America and S Asia)
Active (Venice) and Passive (Rhone) hands- on restoration
Wadden Sea
Ebro Delta
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Vistula Lagoon Lagoon/island. Cross-border Baltic Sea (PL/RU) 838 km2 (23.871 km2 catchment) Demonstration New island for BDV and ESS restoration (compensation for dredging impacts) Restored lagoon-sea connectivity & coast
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Rhone Delta Delta/lagoon. Regional Central Med Combined former salt works and high natural values Demonstration From rigid protection to large scale realignment Restored coastal dynamics and connectivity (sea/coast) Hydro-morpho-eco fluxes for ESS & natural recovery
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
Global coasts Cost-benefit analysis of risk reduction through restoration, with business opportunities for potential restoration projects, Assessment Costs, benefits, impacts and financing needs Wetland restoration/managed realignment to introduce ESS into coastal adaptation Estimated global and European finance needs
PILOTS IN REST-COAST
River-delta-coast connectivity
Dam by-pass
Coastal back-pass
Buffer/filter from wetlands, seagrass and beach/dune habitats
- Active/passive restoration of habitats for ESS
- Increase emerged beach geodiversity and width
- Wetland development + restoration for ESS and biodiversity
- Adding value to existing restoration (e.g. Bombita)
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
Active/passive restoration for buffer/filter ESS from wetlands: reduction of erosion/flooding risks, enhanced accretion, water quality, blue carbon
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
Kg CO2 emitted
Self regulating capacity
NBS: damped hydromorphodynamics by vegetation. Large scale hydraulic tests for efficient deployment
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: RESTORATION FOR ESS
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 cross-shore distance (m)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
La Marquesa (P33)
tan β = 0.019
Ru ≥ z beach 1. 84 times / year Optimise supply geometry Minimise impacts (salinity...) Buffer effect and natural accretion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: CONNECTIVITY & DYNAMICS
Room for coast with sequenced plan and monitoring (natural accretion, barrier effects…) to reduce flooding and erosion risks
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: CONNECTIVITY & DYNAMICS
NBS linked to resilient breaker bars Hydromorphodynamic damping Require large scale tests for efficiency Do not prevent natural recovery (accretion)
P20
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: DAMPED HYDRO-MORPHO DYN.
SOLUTIONS: Decide based on projections (climate/mgmt. WS) Pre storm Post storm
Riumar area
Z ≥ 1m
Z ≤ 1m
Projections: Future 2050 storm (100 yr) and moderate RSLR Pre storm is flooding only. Post storm adds erosion + flooding
Hs = 4.42 m Tp = 12.5 s 100 yr storm
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: EARLY + CLIMATE WARNINGS
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based decisions (NBS for resilience) RSLR 2100 No surge
Riumar area
Hs = 4.42 m Tp = 12.5 s 100 yr storm
Projections: Future 2100 storm (100 yr) and moderate RSLR Pre storm is flooding only. Post storm adds erosion + flooding
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: EARLY + CLIMATE WARNINGS
EWS developed and tested (2017)
Meteorological Module
Hydrodynamic module
Morphodynamic module
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based (adaptive) nourishments
WARNING APPLICATION: MID TERM TRENDS + ACTIONS
SOLUTIONS: Knowledge-based (adaptive) bar/bay operation
Extreme overwash and breaching (high storm duration and intensity with storm surge) at Trabucador bar during Gloria (Jan 2020)
WARNING APPLICATION: EXTREMES + ACTIONS
Instrumental time series = 475 yr – Hs = 6.7 m – Δ Hs ≈ 2 m
Numerical time series = 475 yr – Hs = 8.8 m – Δ Hs ≈ 4 m
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
(c m)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Gloria peak
Select forcings according to risk and data Gloria too extreme? (March 2020: 0.40m surge + 0,6m waves)
EBRO DELTA APPLICATION: WITH MED VARIABILITY
(Perez et al, 2021; Sanchez-Arcilla et al, 2021)
time
THE WAY AHEAD: CLIMATE AND EARLY WARNINGS
ADAPTATION MITIGATION IMPLEMENTATION
GOVERNANCE POLICIES FUNDING
COASTS IN NDCs
THE WAY AHEAD: COASTAL ADAPTATION/RESTORATION
The Ebro delta and REST-COAST (Green Deal EU project)
Prof. A. Sanchez-Arcilla ([email protected])
BarcelonaTech UPC Flooded pre-Gloria Flooded by Gloria