Thedynamicsofpopulistmobilizationinthe2017Frenchpresidentialelection

GillesIvaldi

CNRS,URMIS-UniversityofNice

InternationalWorkshoponPopulismandPoliticalBehaviourUniversityofSiena,13-14Nov.2017

Populismandthe2017Frenchelections

• Widespreadanti-establishmentfeelingsandvoteraspirationtopoliticalrenewal• TheFrenchpopulist‘market’hasexpanded,withL/Rpopulistpartiescompetingagainstthemainstreamandagainsteachother• An‘atypical’presidentialrunofffeaturingastrongpopulistcandidate

• Ouraimtoday:Examinetheconditionsunderlyingsupportforpopulistpartiesinthe2017elections,notablytheroleofpopulistattitudes

Definingpopulism

• Populismasa‘thin’ideologyattachedtothickersetsofideas(Mudde2004),whichhasatitscore:• Antagonismbetweenthe‘virtuous’peopleandthe‘corrupt’elite• Politicsshouldbeanexpressionofthepeople’swill• Claimtorepresentthepeopleagainsttheelite

• Left(econ.inclusive)andright-wing(cult.exclusive)variantsofpopulism(Mudde&Rovira Kaltwasser 2013),foundbothinpartiesandvoters(VanHauwaert &VanKessel 2017)• RelationshipbetweenpopulismandEuroscepticism(Pirro andVanKessel 2017)

Populistactorsinthe2017electionsCandidate Party Mainideological

features%2017vote

MarineLePen FrontNational(FN)

RadicalRightEurosceptic

21.3

Jean-LucMélenchon

LaFranceInsoumise (LFI)

RadicalLeftEurosceptictrajectory

19.6

NicolasDupont-Aignan

Debout laFrance(DLF)

Right-wingSovereignismEurosceptic

4.7

Non-populistactorsinthe2017electionsCandidate Party Mainideological

features%2017vote

EmmanuelMacron EnMarche!(EM!) Centrist, liberalPro-EU

24.0

François Fillon LesRépublicains(LR)

ConservativeFreeMarketRightEurocritic (cult.)

20.0

Benoît Hamon Parti Socialiste (PS) Green-SocialistEurocritic (eco.)

6.4

Exploringthe2017vote

• Votersurveydata(N=19,454),analyticalsamples(N=10,699/9,053)• AmodelofFrenchpresidentialvoting(Lewis-Becketal.2012)• DV:voteinthefirst(R1,multinomial)andsecond(R2,binomial)round(April/May2017)• IVs:

• Standardsocio-demographics(gender,age,education,occupation,religion,religiosity,patrimony)• ‘Root’politicalaffiliation(leftrightideology)• Economicandculturalattitudes(e.g.stateintervention,welfarechauvinism)• AttitudestowardstheEUandeconomicglobalization• Populistattitudes(Akkerman etal.2014)

PopulistattitudesandR1votePopulism and vote in the first round of the 2017 presidential election

Vote in 2017 presidential election

Populism

Hamon Macron Fillon Mélenchon Le Pen Dupont-Aignan Others

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

Ideologicalcorrelatesofpopulism

Left-right 0.07State Intervention -0.12Economic Redistribution 0.31Welfare Chauvinism 0.16European Integration -0.22Same Sex Marriage -0.05Globalization Opportunity -0.20Authoritarianism 0.27

LePenvotercontrasts(R1,multinomial)

• Lesseducated,moreworkingclass• Morewelfarechauvinist,anti-EU,authoritarianandanti-globalization• Morepopulistthanmainstream,sameasMélenchon andDupont-Aignan

• Lessright-wingthanFillon (ninistes)• MoreproeconomicredistributionthanFillon• LesssociallyconservativethanFillon (samesexmarriage)

Mélenchon votercontrasts(R1,multinomial)

• Moremale,youngervoters• Moreproeconomicredistribution• MoreEuroscepticandanti-globalizationthanmainstream• MorepopulistthanmainstreamandDupont-Aignan

• Lessleft-wingthanHamon• MorewelfarechauvinistthanHamon

PopulistattitudesandR2votePopulism and vote in the second round of the 2017 presidential election

Vote in 2017 presidential election

Populism

Le Pen Macron

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

LePenvotercontrasts(R2,binomial)

• Older,lesseducated,moreworkingclassandfewereco.assets• Allattitudinalpredictorssignificantandintheexpecteddirection…• Withtheexceptionofeconomicredistribution(n.s.)

Didpopulismmatter?Model AICfirstround

(N=10,699)AICsecondround

(N=9,053)Fullmodel 25573 5675

Full modelw/o Left-Right

28461*** 6 178***

Full modelw/o EUsentiment

26076*** 6192***

Full modelw/oPopulism

25 816*** 5 788***

Likelihood RatioTests

Conclusions

• LePenandMélenchon votersaremorepopulistthansupportersofmainstreamcandidates• LePenvotersshowthehighestdegreeofpopulism• Populism’matters’inbothR1andR2,lesssohoweverthan:

• traditionalleft/rightaffiliation(R1)and• EUsentiment(R2)

• Mélenchon:radicalleft,econ.Inclusivepopulismyetlesscosmopolitarian• LePen:radicalright,cult.Exclusivepopulismyetmoresocialprotectionist