the diurnal temperature range and its recent evolution
DESCRIPTION
The Diurnal Temperature Range and its Recent Evolution. Brian Olsen April 20, 2006. Outline. Introduction to DTR Local Examples Global Trends What affects DTR? Conclusions. The Global Warming Signal. Multi-decadal “pause” in warming. IPCC, 2001. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Diurnal Temperature The Diurnal Temperature Range and its Recent Range and its Recent
EvolutionEvolution
Brian OlsenBrian Olsen
April 20, 2006April 20, 2006
OutlineOutline
• Introduction to DTRIntroduction to DTR
• Local ExamplesLocal Examples
• Global TrendsGlobal Trends
• What affects DTR?What affects DTR?
• ConclusionsConclusions
The The GlobalGlobal Warming Signal Warming Signal
IPCC, 2001
Multi-decadal “pause” in warming
Diurnal Diurnal TemperatureTemperature Range (DTR) Range (DTR)
• DTR = High - LowDTR = High - Low
• High Temperature = 81FHigh Temperature = 81F
• Low Temperature = 58 FLow Temperature = 58 F
• DTR = DTR = 81 F81 F – – 58 F58 F = = 23 F23 F
SLC WFO
Highest in summer
Lowest in winter
KSLCKSLC Trends Trends
Warming?
Definite Warming!
E. Crossman
• But why?But why?• What about a nearby rural location?What about a nearby rural location?
KENV KENV MonthlyMonthly Mean of Daily Mean of Daily TTmaxmax, T, Tminmin, and DTR (1913-2004), and DTR (1913-2004)
B. OlsenB. Olsen
Missing data
General loss of warm colors in
summer
General gain of cool colors in
winter
KENVKENV Trends Trends• Tmax actually decreases• Tmin increases• DTR decreases
But where didBut where did the trend go?the trend go?
• Obviously, this isObviously, this is a complicated a complicated problem problem
Pause in warming
B. OlsenB. Olsen
Global TrendsGlobal Trends(1950 - 2004)(1950 - 2004)
Vose et al. 2005Vose et al. 2005
Vose et al. 2005Vose et al. 2005
Steady
Warming
StrongWarming
StrongWarming
SteadyDecreasing
1950 – 2004 1979 - 20041950 – 2004 1979 - 2004
Vose et al. 2005
GreatestWarming
GreatestWarming
< ≈
Global TrendsGlobal Trends(1979 – 2004)(1979 – 2004)
Trendless
Vose et al. 20052005
Vose et al. 2005Vose et al. 2005
WhyWhy? What Affects DTR?? What Affects DTR?
• Urban Heat Island (increase minimums) – local effectUrban Heat Island (increase minimums) – local effect
• Irrigation & Desertification not globally significant – local effectIrrigation & Desertification not globally significant – local effect
• Climate variablesClimate variables
– Cloud coverage and altitudeCloud coverage and altitudeexplain ~40% of varianceexplain ~40% of variance
– All vars ~55% of varianceAll vars ~55% of variance
• Other considerationsOther considerations– Jet Contrails (Travis et al. 2004)Jet Contrails (Travis et al. 2004)
– Tropospheric aerosolTropospheric aerosol
– GHG emissionsGHG emissions
RH WS CIG TRAD dTMP SKY SNOW-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8Simple
Partial
Cor
rela
tion
Coe
ffici
ent
Karl et al. 1993Karl et al. 1993
ConclusionsConclusions
• The planet is warmingThe planet is warming• The planet is getting less coolThe planet is getting less cool• Historically, minimum temps increased more than maximum temps Historically, minimum temps increased more than maximum temps
=> decrease in DTR=> decrease in DTR• Winter / Spring warmed the mostWinter / Spring warmed the most• Rate of warming has increased since 1980Rate of warming has increased since 1980• Recently, minimum temps and maximum temps rise in step => no Recently, minimum temps and maximum temps rise in step => no
trend in DTRtrend in DTR• Winter continues to become more mildWinter continues to become more mild• Signal most apparent in Northern HemisphereSignal most apparent in Northern Hemisphere• Cloud cover is significantCloud cover is significant
(In)Conclusions(In)Conclusions
• DTR trend is difficult to measureDTR trend is difficult to measure– difference between two large quantitiesdifference between two large quantities– Noisy / lots of temporal variabilityNoisy / lots of temporal variability
• Wide regional variationWide regional variation– Global generalizations may be a poor Global generalizations may be a poor
measuremeasure– Local effects may overpower global trendLocal effects may overpower global trend
• Model / Observation discrepancyModel / Observation discrepancy
ThanksThanks!!