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Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 2, 1998, pp. 95-107 The Development of Early Externalizing Problems Among Children from Low-Income Families: A Transformational Perspective Daniel S. Shaw, 1,3 Emily B. Winslow, 1 Elizabeth B. Owens, 1 Joan I. Vondra, 1 Jeffrey E Cohn, 1 and Richard Q. Bell 2 Received October 25, 1996; revision received May 28, 1997; accepted May 28, 1997 The present study examined pathways leading to early externalizing problems from age 1 to 3 1 /2 in a design that took advantage of our knowledge of normative progression and nor- mative socialization as well as findings from research on risk. A sample of 130 low-income participants was followed longitudinally from 12 to 42 months using observational measures of developmentally salient parenting and child disruptive behavior to predict early external- izing problems. Results are best accommodated by concepts such as transformation and transaction from developmental psychology. For boys, both child and parent variables pre- dicted later externalizing. For girls and boys, the interaction between child noncompliance and maternal rejection was significant. Interest in identifying the antecedents of early externalizing problems is increasing rapidly. The rea- son for this interest is clear. First, both epidemiologi- cal and developmental studies, some starting as early as age 2, have found aggressive behavior to be highly stable, particularly among males (Cummings, lan- notti, & Zahn-Waxler, 1989; Olweus, 1979). From longitudinal studies that have traced the develop- mental course of child disruptive behavior, it is esti- mated that approximately 50% continue to show these difficulties throughout the school-age period and into early adolescence (Campbell, 1994, 1995; McGee, Silva, & Williams, 1984; Richman, Steven- son, & Graham, 1982). Second, externalizing prob- lems, especially in their more serious forms occurring during school-age and adolescence, are extremely 1 University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260-0001. 2 University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903-2477. 3 Address all correspondence, including requests for reprints, to Daniel S. Shaw, Department of Psychology, University of Pitts- burgh, 604 OEH, 4015 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260-0001. costly to society in terms of damaged property and disruption of normal patterns of living. Third, in school-age children and adolescents serious forms of externalizing problems have been found to be highly resistant to change—few interventions consistently have proven to be effective (Kazdin, 1995). Fourth, the period from infancy to preschool is one of the most critical in development. During these years, many developmental trajectories leading to adaptive or maladaptive outcomes begin (Campbell, 1995). For these reasons it is important to examine early precursors of externalizing problems. Delineating de- velopmental trajectories leading to early externaliz- ing problems and later antisocial behavior may suggest important targets and appropriate timing for intervention. Parent and child factors associated with less serious externalizing problems may be more re- sponsive to treatment prior to school entry. As the study of developmental psychopathology has grown, it has proved profitable to use perspec- tives from developmental psychology and normative socialization in the study of childhood psychopathol- ogy. The pathway of the disrupting or externalizing 95 0091-0627/98/0400-0095$15.00/0 © 1998 Plenum Publishing Corporation KEY WORDS: Externalizing; noncompliance; maternal rejection.

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Page 1: The Development of Early Externalizing Problems Among ... · Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 2, 1998, pp. 95-107 The Development of Early Externalizing Problems

Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 2, 1998, pp. 95-107

The Development of Early Externalizing ProblemsAmong Children from Low-Income Families: ATransformational Perspective

Daniel S. Shaw,1,3 Emily B. Winslow,1 Elizabeth B. Owens,1 Joan I. Vondra,1

Jeffrey E Cohn,1 and Richard Q. Bell2

Received October 25, 1996; revision received May 28, 1997; accepted May 28, 1997

The present study examined pathways leading to early externalizing problems from age 1 to31/2 in a design that took advantage of our knowledge of normative progression and nor-mative socialization as well as findings from research on risk. A sample of 130 low-incomeparticipants was followed longitudinally from 12 to 42 months using observational measuresof developmentally salient parenting and child disruptive behavior to predict early external-izing problems. Results are best accommodated by concepts such as transformation andtransaction from developmental psychology. For boys, both child and parent variables pre-dicted later externalizing. For girls and boys, the interaction between child noncomplianceand maternal rejection was significant.

Interest in identifying the antecedents of earlyexternalizing problems is increasing rapidly. The rea-son for this interest is clear. First, both epidemiologi-cal and developmental studies, some starting as earlyas age 2, have found aggressive behavior to be highlystable, particularly among males (Cummings, lan-notti, & Zahn-Waxler, 1989; Olweus, 1979). Fromlongitudinal studies that have traced the develop-mental course of child disruptive behavior, it is esti-mated that approximately 50% continue to showthese difficulties throughout the school-age periodand into early adolescence (Campbell, 1994, 1995;McGee, Silva, & Williams, 1984; Richman, Steven-son, & Graham, 1982). Second, externalizing prob-lems, especially in their more serious forms occurringduring school-age and adolescence, are extremely

1University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260-0001.2University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903-2477.3Address all correspondence, including requests for reprints, toDaniel S. Shaw, Department of Psychology, University of Pitts-burgh, 604 OEH, 4015 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania15260-0001.

costly to society in terms of damaged property anddisruption of normal patterns of living. Third, inschool-age children and adolescents serious forms ofexternalizing problems have been found to be highlyresistant to change—few interventions consistentlyhave proven to be effective (Kazdin, 1995). Fourth,the period from infancy to preschool is one of themost critical in development. During these years,many developmental trajectories leading to adaptiveor maladaptive outcomes begin (Campbell, 1995).For these reasons it is important to examine earlyprecursors of externalizing problems. Delineating de-velopmental trajectories leading to early externaliz-ing problems and later antisocial behavior maysuggest important targets and appropriate timing forintervention. Parent and child factors associated withless serious externalizing problems may be more re-sponsive to treatment prior to school entry.

As the study of developmental psychopathologyhas grown, it has proved profitable to use perspec-tives from developmental psychology and normativesocialization in the study of childhood psychopathol-ogy. The pathway of the disrupting or externalizing

95

0091-0627/98/0400-0095$15.00/0 © 1998 Plenum Publishing Corporation

KEY WORDS: Externalizing; noncompliance; maternal rejection.

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96 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Cohn, and Bell

child can best be seen against the background oftransformational change, normative progression, andparent-child interaction, including reciprocal andtransactional effects between parent and child. Thefirst years of life are marked by constant change inthe child's cognitive and physical maturity, more sothan in any other period of life. Thus, it is importantfor researchers to focus their efforts on the child'schanging developmental status and concomitantchallenges faced by parents. Relatively little researchhas been conducted with respect to applying suchmodels to the study of early child psychopathology.

With respect to child characteristics shown inthe first year, evidence suggests that differences ininfant difficulty (i.e., negative emotionality) and ac-tivity level may influence caretaker's perceptions ofthe infant which in turn, influence their practices andthe course of behavior problems (Bates, Maslin, &Frankel, 1985). Studies examining the direct effectsof difficult temperament on later externalizing be-havior problems have shown modest to moderate re-lations (Maziade, Cote, & Bourderault, 1984;Sanson, Oberklaid, Pedlow, & Prior, 1991). Unfortu-nately, many of these studies have either relied solelyon mothers' reports of infant difficulty and later be-havior problems, or used the term temperament todescribe patterns of child behavior beginning well af-ter infancy. Moreover, few studies have examinedtemperament characteristics during infancy using areciprocal model of interaction to examine interplaywith parenting behavior. Using a measure of persist-ent attention-seeking behavior in the face of low ma-ternal responsiveness (Martin, 1981), Shaw, Keenan,and Vondra (1994) found that, for boys, infant per-sistence at 12 months was related to observed aggres-sion at age 2, which in turn was related to age 3externalizing problems based on maternal report.

During the first year, parenting is primarily fo-cused around attending to the infant's needs due tothe infant's cognitive and physical immaturity. Con-sistent with this premise, maternal responsiveness hasbeen found to play a critical role in several areas oflater child adaptation. Responsivity has been foundto be positively associated with later cognitive com-petence (Bradley & Caldwell, 1980; Cohen & Beck-with, 1979) and social development (Martin, 1981;Waters, Wippman, & Sroufe, 1979), and negativelyrelated to externalizing behavior problems, the latterespecially in high-risk samples (Renken, Egeland,Marvinney, Mangelsdorf, & Sroufe, 1989; Shaw etal., 1994).

During the second year, there is an increase inthe child's physical mobility and risk of harm to self,siblings, pets, and objects (Shaw & Bell, 1993). Atransformational approach would predict that childand parenting factors associated with later external-izing problems also would undergo change. Nolonger are parents primarily concerned with merelyfulfilling the infant's needs. While maintaining apositive relationship, parents also begin exerting theirwill to protect the infant and other family members'physical well-being. In addition, parents begin to ex-pect greater self-regulatory control so the child canperform developmentally appropriate tasks that re-quire greater social and cognitive competence. Thisexpectation will increase even more during the thirdyear. Since most infants oppose this process(Ausubel, 1958), the second year is marked by in-creases in noncompliant and aggressive behavior(Shaw et al., 1994).

Consistent with the foregoing transformation, itis during the second year that researchers have begunto find direct linkages between early forms of aggres-sive or noncompliant behavior and later disruptivebehavior (Cummings et al., 1989; Keenan & Shaw,1994). In the same study noted above, Shaw and col-leagues (1994) found that both noncompliance andaggression during the second year were related to ex-ternalizing problems at age 3.

As parental control increases during the secondyear, parental discipline styles gain importance. Infact, parents report the second year to be a time ofincreased stress, during which patience and copingmechanisms are tested (Fagot & Kavanaugh, 1993).However, few studies have examined the effects ofsuch factors as parental hostility on child behaviorprior to preschool age. This is surprising given theamount of research on school-age children which hasshown relations between rejection and externalizingproblems. A hostile and rejecting style of disciplinehas been associated repeatedly with child externaliz-ing problems among school-age children and adoles-cents (see Loeber & Dishion, 1983; McCord,McCord, & Zola, 1959). In a meta-analysis of studiesexamining relations between juvenile delinquencyand parenting, parental rejection emerged as one ofthe most powerful and consistent predictors (Loeber& Stouthamer-Loeber, 1986).

We also were interested in applying Sameroff's(1990) transactional model to the data. The transac-tional model emphasizes the developing interplay be-tween children's characteristics and experiences

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Developmental Pathways to Early Externalizing Problems 97

provided by their environments. Sameroff has con-tended that child characteristics and environmental in-fluences exert reciprocal effects on each other, thecombination of which determines later parent andchild behavior. Accordingly, children's developmentaltrajectories can be delineated most accurately by ex-amining the relation of these parent-child interactionsover time. In the study of the origins of early exter-nalizing problems, main effects of children's and par-ent's behavior might have some concurrent impact, butoptimal prediction of later disruptive problems shouldbe obtained by tracing how child and parent behaviorsinteract across time. For example, infants who demandattention from caregivers to help self-regulate may beat risk for later problems only if caregivers are unre-sponsive. Conversely, infants who need less help self-regulating may not be at risk even if caregivers areunresponsive. Thus, it may be most important to de-lineate specific combinations of parent-child behavior,and the linkages of these behaviors over time, thatplace children at risk for later problems.

Using a longitudinal sample of low-income,high-risk families, we employed a variety of perspec-tives from general developmental psychology and so-cialization to examine the development of earlyexternalizing problems. The present study sought toextend previous findings using several of the samemeasures as Martin (1981) and Shaw and colleagues(1994) (i.e., maternal responsiveness and infant per-sistence at age 1, noncompliance at age 2, maternalreport of behavior problems at age 31/2). Child andparenting behaviors were selected based on thechild's developmental status. Thus, observations ofchild persistence and maternal responsiveness wereconducted at 12 months, and observations of childnoncompliance and maternal rejection at 24 months,to examine the effects of parent-child behavior onmaternal reports of child externalizing behavior atages 2 and 31/2. In addition, we hypothesized thatcertain combinations of parent and child behaviorswould be particularly disruptive to parent-child rela-tions and subsequent child externalizing problems.Specifically, at 12 months it was hypothesized thatthe combination of infant persistence and maternalwnresponsiveness would represent the most antago-nistic combination of child and parent characteristics.Similarly, at 24 months the combination of child non-compliance and maternal rejection was expected toincrease risk status for later externalizing problems.At both time points, aversive child behavior in theface of unresponsive or hostile maternal behavior

was predicted to account for unique variance afterconsidering main effects.

In addition to positing interactive effects ofconcurrent parent-child behaviors, we hypothesizedthat the continuity in maladaptive child and parentbehaviors over time would be related to greater ex-ternalizing problems. Thus, a child who is both per-sistent during infancy and noncompliant as a toddlershould be at greater risk compared to other children,as well as a child whose mother is both unresponsiveduring infancy and later rejecting.

Finally, we also expected sex differences in thepathways leading to early problem behavior. Boysconsistently have been found to demonstrate greatervulnerability to a number of neurodevelopmental andpsychological disorders from prenatal developmentto school age (Eme, 1992; Gualtieri & Hicks, 1985;Zaslow & Hayes, 1986). In an earlier study, Shawand colleagues (1994) found a greater number andrange of correlates that predicted age 2 and 3 dis-ruptive behavior for boys than for girls. This was ap-parent even though no sex differences were presentbetween the means of predictor and outcome vari-ables, including measures of parental treatment (i.e.,maternal responsiveness) as well as early disruptivechild behavior (e.g., noncompliance, persistent atten-tion seeking). In the present study, we sought to rep-licate the previous findings regarding sex differences.

METHOD

Subjects

The participants for the study consisted of a sam-ple of mother-infant dyads recruited from the Women,Infants, and Children (WIC) Nutritional SupplementProgram of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. WICprovides financial support to purchase nutritionallysound food items for low-income families. The samplerepresents a second cohort of families recruited fromWIC, with no overlap of participants from previouspublications (Shaw et al., 1994). At the time of recruit-ment, age of infants ranged from 6 to 11 months withthe first assessment completed at 12 months. At thetime of the infant's birth, mothers ranged in age from17 to 39 years, with a mean age of 26. Fifty-seven per-cent of participants were Caucasian, 39% were AfricanAmerican, and 4% were other (e.g., Hispanic, Asian).Sampling of marital status was not restricted due tothe considerable relationship instability within the

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98 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Cohn, and Bell

sample. At the 12-month visit, 69% were either mar-ried or living together, whereas 31% were either di-vorced, separated, or single. Mean per capita familyincome was $261 per month ($3,132 per year), and themean Hollingshead socioeconomic status (SES) scorewas 30, which is indicative of a working class sample.

Mothers of infants were recruited in the waitingrooms of 11 WIC sites in the greater Pittsburgh met-ropolitan area by one of the principal investigatorsor members of the project staff. Mothers were in-formed that the study was a project examining childdevelopment and mother-child interaction patterns,and that they would be paid for each lab visit. One-hundred thirty families were seen at 12 months (59girls and 71 boys). Mothers were contacted 2 weeksbefore the assessment by mail, and 1 week before byphone, to confirm their appointments. Of the 189who were asked to take part in the study, 184(97.3%) agreed to participate, but only 130 (70.6%)of the 184 completed the 12-month assessment. Ofthe 71 boys and 59 girls seen at 12 months of age,125 (96.1% of the 130, or 66 boys and 59 girls) par-ticipated in the 24-month assessment, and 103(79.2% of the 130, or 61 boys and 42 girls) partici-pated in the 42-month assessment. Due to insuffi-cient financial resources for the follow-up of the girls,mothers of female participants completed the ChildBehavior Checklist (CBCL; Achenbash, 1992)through the mail when children were between 42 to48 months old, whereas mothers of boys completedthe same checklists in person as part of the 42-monthlaboratory assessment. As a result, retention was sub-stantially lower for female versus male participants;42 of 60 (70%) females were seen at all assessmentsversus 64 of 71 (90.1%) males. Because of the sexdifferences in attrition rates, group difference com-parisons of demographic variables by retention statuswere computed separately by sex. When families whocompleted 12-, 24-, and 42-month assessments werecompared to those who completed assessments onlyat 12 months, there were no significant differenceson per capita income for boys or girls. A similar com-parison was made of families who completed allthree labs versus those who completed only 12- and24-month assessments on per capita income, Holling-shead status, and 24-month CBCL Externalizingproblems. As a result of errors in videotaping of as-sessments, sample sizes for specific measures wereslightly less than the total sample size at different as-sessment points.

Procedures

Two videotaped laboratory assessments wereconducted at ages 12 and 24 months, and motherscompleted Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist(Achenbach, 1992) in person for boys at 42 months,and through the mail for girls, when children werebetween 42 and 48 months old. Additionally, on thesame day prior to the lab visit at 24 months, all fami-lies with boys were visited at home where motherscompleted several questionnaires and maternal andchild behavior were observed. Unless otherwisespecified, mothers were instructed to attend to theirinfants as they normally would. Each laboratory as-sessment lasted approximately 2 hours, and was pur-posefully varied in stress level in order to observeparent and infant behavior across a broad spectrumof contexts (i.e., free play vs. the high-chair task).

Measures

High-Chair Task. When infants were 12 monthsold, mother-infant dyads were observed in a high-chair task to evaluate maternal responsiveness andinfant persistence (Martin, 1981; Shaw et al., 1994).In this situation, the infant is placed in a high chairfacing away from the mother (toward a mirrorthrough which the child can see the mother) withnothing to do for 3 min, while the mother completesa questionnaire. The mother is instructed to com-plete the questionnaire but also to attend to her in-fant in whatever manner she deems appropriate. Theone restriction is that the infant cannot be removedfrom the high chair. This procedure was adaptedfrom Martin (1981) because it had previously beendemonstrated to (1) operationalize the measurementof the process of interaction as an interdependentflow of behavior involving both self and partner in-fluences, (2) record quantitative shifts of all of thepartner-directed behavior of each person, (3) dis-criminate attachment security classification in twosamples of low-income participants (Shaw et al.,1995; Vondra, Shaw, & Kevenides, 1995), and (4)show longitudinal relations in the prediction of earlyexternalizing problem behavior (Martin, 1981). In us-ing this method, it is assumed that each individual isaffected both by her/his own prior behavior and thebehavior of the other person, taking into accountbidirectional components of measurement.

Mother and infant behaviors were separatelycoded on a 1-s time base. Behaviors for mother and

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Developmental Pathways to Early Externalizing Problems 99

infant consisted of look at partner, smile, vocalize,touch partner, and for the infant only, fuss/cry. Thebehaviors were not mutually exclusive; thus, morethan one could occur for each partner within anysampling interval. Behavioral frequencies were codedfrom videotapes by a team of undergraduate researchassistants who were blind to the study's hypotheses.Interobserver reliability, based on a random sampleof 20% of the interactions, was quantified by kappacoefficients and ranged from .79 (mother vocalize)to .83 (mother look).

Mother and infant behaviors were scaled alongan intensity dimension within each 1-s interval bycomputing a weighted sum of each partner's behav-ior. A copy of all scaling weights can be found inboth the Martin (1981) and Shaw and colleagues(1994) papers, but examples include infant vocalize= 25, infant fuss/cry = 125, infant vocalize + smile+ look = 40, mother look = 15, mother look + smile+ vocalize + touch = 140. Following Martin andShaw, time series regression was then used to esti-mate two parameters for each partner: persistenceand responsiveness to the other partner. Infant per-sistence is the extent to which the infant intensifiesthe level of attention seeking following unresponsivematernal caregiving. Maternal responsiveness is theextent to which the mother increases attention givingas a function of the level of infant attention seek-ing—in essence, how contingently responsive themother is to the infant's requests for interaction. Thetest statistics used for each variable were the respec-tive beta coefficients from the time series regressionsof each dyad's scaled intensity scores.

Child Noncompliance. Following a system de-vised by Martin (1981) and adapted by Keenan,Shaw, and Aubele (1993), the following behaviorswere coded as noncompliant at the 24-month assess-ment: walking away, changing the task, passive non-compliance (i.e., doing nothing), and struggling orresisting. Noncompliance was coded during three in-tervals, a 5-min clean-up task and two 3-min prob-lem-solving tasks. During the problem-solving tasksthe mother was instructed to spend 3 min workingwith her child to put a puzzle together, and then 3more minutes fitting plastic letters in and out of atoy mailbox. The total coding time for noncompliantbehavior was 11 min.

A group of undergraduate research assistants,who were blind to other observational coding sys-tems, comprised the noncompliance coding team.Team members were trained for 4 months, during

which they attended weekly meetings and completedhomework assignments of coding tapes. To establishadequate reliability, each 5-s interval was reviewedfor the presence or absence of codes. Since a com-posite measure of noncompliant behavior repre-senting all types of noncompliance was used in thepresent analyses, kappas also were based on agree-ments across the four types of noncompliant behav-ior: walking away, changing the task, passivenoncompliance, and struggling/resisting. Compositingwas deemed appropriate because of the high corre-lations among the four different codes; all were in-tercorrelated .92 or more. The kappa for non-compliance was .89.

Rejecting Parenting. Maternal rejecting parentingwas measured using the Early Parenting Coding Sys-tem (EPCS), which was designed to measure a rangeof parenting behavior typically exhibited in interac-tions with young children. The EPCS is an observa-tional coding system consisting of nine categories ofparenting strategies coded molecularly as well as sixglobal ratings (Winslow, Shaw, Bruns, & Kiebler,1995). Molecular and global ratings were made fromvideotaped mother-child interactions during a struc-tured clean-up task at the 24-month lab assessment.For the purposes of the present study, only molecularand global ratings relevant to rejecting parentingwere employed. These included two molecular rat-ings— verbal/physical approval and critical state-ment—as well as three global ratings— hostility,warmth, and punitiveness. Hostility was defined as theemotional expression of anger by the mother towardthe child as indicated by tone of voice and manner-isms. The warmth rating was an evaluation of theamount of positive affect expressed toward the child.Punitiveness was defined as the extent to which themother was too strict, demanding, or harsh, consid-ering the child's behavior. Originally, global ratingswere made on a 4-point scale; however, it was nec-essary to convert the punitiveness and warmth ratingsto 3-point scales due to difficulties among coders inmaking more narrowly defined distinctions. Inter-rater agreement was calculated for each rating indi-vidually. For molecular codes, Cohen's kappacoefficients were .87 for approval and .79 for criticalstatement. For global ratings, kappa coefficients were.94, .83, and .94 for hostility, warmth, and punitive-ness, respectively. Coders were blind to scores on allother measures used in the study.

In order to create a single indicator correspond-ing to rejecting parenting, a principal-components

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100 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Colin, and Bell

analysis was conducted with the five parenting vari-ables using a forced one-factor solution. As expected,only one factor emerged with an initial eigenvaluegreater than or equal to 1.0. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkinmeasure of sampling adequacy was .67, and the Bar-tlett test of sphericity was 89.23, p < .00001. To in-crease generalizability, variables were converted toz-scores, then averaged without differential weightingto form the rejecting parenting composite.

Child Behavior Checklist for Ages 2-3, The CBCL(Achenbach, 1992) is a 100-item questionnaire de-signed to assess behavioral and emotional problemsin children ages 2 to 3. Mothers completed the age2-3 version of the CBCL when children were 2 and3 1/2-4 years old. Achenbach recommended continuingto use the age 2-3 versus the age 4-16 version of theCBCL when children are between ages 3 and 4 andprevious assessments have been conducted (Achen-bach, 1992). The questionnaire generates two broad-band factors, Externalizing and Internalizing, theformer of which was used for analyses in this study.

RESULTS

Results are presented in the following fourstages: (a) descriptive statistics of child behavior andmaternal treatment, (b) correlates of age 2 and age31/2 child externalizing problems, and (c) pathwaysleading to age 2 and 3Vi children's externalizingproblems. Sex differences in the pathways leading toearly disruptive behavior were examined in regres-sion analyses.

Preliminary Analyses

First, means and standard deviations are pre-sented in Table I separately by sex for all child and

parenting behaviors. With the exception of one non-significant trend, no sex differences were found formean levels of the seven child or parenting behav-iors. Specific outliers were removed from analysesafter scatterplots and effects on correlational analy-ses (i.e., changing the correlation coefficient bymore than .20) were examined. Only one case metthese criterion and was removed from subsequentcorrelational and regression analyses involving thematernal responsiveness variable. The outlier was afemale subject with a score on maternal responsive-ness that was 5.3 standard deviations above the sam-ple mean. With the case present, the correlationbetween maternal responsiveness and 42-monthCBCL Externalizing problems was .37 for girls (p <.01); after removing this case the same correlationwas .15, n.s.

Correlation Analyses

Pearson product-moment correlations amongpredictor and dependent variables are presented inTable II. Correlations are presented separately by sexbased on previous studies showing sex differences inthe magnitude of correlations between risk factorsand disruptive behavior for boys and girls (Martin,1981; Shaw et al., 1994). Relations between 12- and24-month per capita family income, socioeconomicstatus, marital status, and mother's age, and 24- and42-month CBCL Externalizing also were examinedbut are not shown because only one of 24 attainedstatistical significance. For girls only, SES at 12months was negatively related to CBCL Externaliz-ing at 24 months (r = -.31, p < .05).

For boys, maternal responsiveness at 12 monthswas negatively related to 24- and 42-month CBCLExternalizing, and maternal rejection at 24 monthswas positively related to 24-month noncompliance

Table I. Descriptive Statistics for Study Variables

Variable

12 MonthsInfant persistenceMaternal responsiveness

24 MonthsChild noncomplianceRejecting parentingChild externalizing behavior

42 MonthsChild externalizing behavior

Boys

N

6363

586161

61

M

0.00050.007

168.600.06

50.28

51.36

(SD)

(0.001)(0.016)

(102.09)(1.07)(9.66)

(9.44)

Range

-0.008-0.003-0.060-0.066

17.00-475.00-1.34-4.6031.00-83.00

30.00-68.00

Girls

N

5151

535451

42

M

0.00060.011

154.75-0.0751.80

47.71+

(SD)

(0.001)(0.023)

(113.72)(0.93)(8.85)

(10.20)

Range

-0.002-0.003-0.030-0.134

0.00-466.00-1.32-2.6632.00-74.00

29.00-70.00

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Developmental Pathways to Early Externalizing Problems 101

(derived from some of the same observational pe-riod) and 42-month Externalizing. Infant persistencewas positively associated with Externalizing at 42months, and noncompliance at 24 months was re-lated to 42-month Externalizing. The relation be-tween the CBCL Externalizing factor from 24 to 42months was high r = .70, p < .001.

For girls, maternal responsiveness was unre-lated to the Externalizing at 24 and 42 months. Ma-ternal rejection at 24 months was significantlyassociated with noncompliance and Externalizing at24 months. Infant persistence was positively associ-ated with 24- but not 42-month Externalizing ornoncompliance at 24 months. Although the relationbetween Externalizing at 24 and 42 months wasstrong (r = .66, p < .001), the association between24-month noncompliance and 42-month Externaliz-ing did not attain significance. It is important tonote that, although we have presented correlationsseparately for boys and girls, formal tests of sex dif-ferences were conducted in regression analyses, pre-sented in the following sections.

Pathways Leading to Early Externalizing Problems:Regression Analyses

A series of hierarchical multiple regressionanalyses were computed to predict Externalizing atages 2 and 3!/2. Since we also were interested in ex-amining sex differences, interactions between sex andindependent variables were included. Independentvariables were entered chronologically, and when de-rived from the same assessment point, child factorswere entered prior to parenting factors to accountfor autoregressive effects. SES also was entered as acontrol variable to predict 24-month Externalizingbecause of its significant relation for girls.

Multivariate Pathways to Externalizing Problemsfrom 12-Month Predictors

Results of hierarchical multiple regression analy-ses for the prediction of 24- and 42- month External-izing using 12-month predictors are presented inTable III. To examine the prediction of 24-month Ex-

Table II. Intercorrelations Among Study Variables"

Variable

12 Months1. Child persistence2. Maternal responsiveness

24 Months3. Child noncompliance4. Maternal rejection5. Child externalizing behavior

42 Months6. Child externalizing behavior

1

--.12

.19b

.11

.12

.29c

2

-.20b

-

.07-.14-.32d

-.23C

3

.00-.17

-.33d

.15

.38d

4

.12-.15

.46e

-.17

.38d

5

.33C

•02a

.15

.25C

-

.70e

6

.16

.15b

.09

.27b

.66e

-

aBoys below and girls above diagonal. Subscript roman letters: a— correlation was .15 before re-moval of outlier; b— correlation was .37 before removal of outlier.

bp < .100.cp < .05.dp < .01.ep < .001.

Table III. Prediction of 24-Month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing Problems from 12-Month Variables: HierarchicalMultiple Regressions; Dependent Variable: CBCL Externalizing Problems at 24 months; Overall F (7, 87) = 4.25, p < .001

Independent variable

Socioeconomic status (SES)Child sexSES x SexPersistenceResponsivenessPersistence x SexResponsiveness x Sex

Multiple R

.18

.20

.32

.43

.45

.47

.51

R2

.03

.04

.10

.18

.20

.22

.25

R2 change

.03

.01

.07

.08

.02

.02

.03

B

-0.151.50

-0.432,454.00

-78.672,599.58

221.77

SEB

0.081.900.17

823.6057.24

1,747.89112.76

Beta

-0.180.08

-1.040.31

-0.130.440.58

t

-1.760.79

-2.592.98

-1.371.491.97

Significanceof F Change

.08

.43

.01

.004

.17

.14

.05

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102 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Cohn, and Bell

ternalizing, SES, sex, 12-month infant persistence, 12-month maternal responsiveness, and their two- andthree-way interaction terms were used as independentvariables. The overall regression equation was signifi-cant, p < .001. Infant persistence (p < .01), the SESx Child Sex interaction (p < .02), and the MaternalResponsiveness x Child Sex interaction (p = .05) sig-nificantly predicted 24-month Externalizing. Follow-up analyses of the SES x Sex interactive effectcorroborated the significant inverse relation betweenSES and Externalizing problems for girls but not boys.Follow-up of the Maternal Responsiveness x ChildSex interaction indicated that boys with above-medianresponsiveness had median f-scores on 24-month Ex-ternalizing .6 standard deviations lower than girls withabove-median responsiveness (for boys, Externalizingf-score = 46, for girls Externalizing t-score = 52).

Similarly to our predictions concerning childpersistence and maternal responsiveness, we ex-pected the interaction between noncompliance andrejection to be significant after considering theirmain effects. Results of hierarchical regression analy-ses are presented in Table IV The overall modelequation was significant, p < .01. Unique variancewas accounted for by noncompliance (p < .03) andrejecting parenting (p < .02).

To determine whether continuity in parent andchild behavior over time added unique variance to

the prediction of 42-month Externalizing after con-sidering main effects, we examined parent-parentand child-child interactions in regression analyses.Since we were primarily interested in the interactionsrather than main effects for these analyses, thereader is referred to earlier analyses for the latter.Specifically, we expected the interaction between lowresponsiveness and high rejecting, and the interac-tion between high persistence and high noncompli-ance to add unique variance after main effects. Asseen in Table V, the Sex x Responsiveness x Rejec-tion interaction term was significant (p < .02). Thenature of this interaction is displayed in Fig. 1 usingabove- and below-median scores on the responsive-ness and rejection variables displayed with 42-monthExternalizing for boys. Contrary to expectations, boyswhose mothers showed high responsiveness and highrejecting behavior had an average t-score of 59,whereas boys whose mothers who were high on re-sponsiveness but low on rejecting behavior had a me-dian t-score of 44, 1.5 standard deviations below thehigh responsive/high rejecting group. The interactionbetween rejecting parenting and responsiveness wasnot significant for girls.

In the child factor model, sex was followed inthe equation by infant persistence at 12 months, 24-month noncompliance, and two- and three-way in-teraction terms. Although the overall regression

Table IV. Prediction of 42-Month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing Problems from 24-Month Observed Parent andChild Variables: Hierarchical Multiple Regressions; Dependent Variable: CBCL Externalizing Problems at 42 months; Overall F (7,

83) = 3.36, p < .004

Independent variable

Child's sexNoncompiianceMaternal rejectionSex x NoncomplianceSex x RejectionNoncompliance x RejectionSex x Noncompliance x Rejection

Multiple R

.18

.30

.40

.42

.42

.43

.47

R2

.03

.09

.16

.18

.18

.19

.22

R2 change

.03

.05

.07

.03

.00

.01

.03

B

-3.600.024.27

-0.030.210.010.06

SEB

2.060.009

1.620.0183.260.010.03

Beta

-0.180.230.28

-0.560.020.181.28

t

-1.752.302.631.650.070.801.88

Significanceof F Change

.08

.02

.01.10.95.42.06

Table V. Continuity in Parenting as a Predictor of 42-Month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing Problems: HierarchicalMultiple Regressions; Dependent Variable: CBCL Externalizing Problems at 42 Months; Overall F (7, 76) = 3.57, p < .003

Independent variable

Child's sexResponsiveness, 12 monthsRejecting parenting, 24 monthsSex x ResponsivenessSex x RejectionResponsiveness x RejectionSex x Responsiveness x Rejection

Multiple R

.18

.20

.38

.42

.42

.43

.50

R2

.03

.04

.15

.17

.18

.18

.25

R2 change

.03

.01

.10

.03

.00

.01

.06

B

-3.60-47.66

4.94229.11-0.07

108.38-594.93

SEB

2.1468.541.59

130.233.24

121.49233.99

Beta

-0.18-0.070.330.56

-0.020.11

-0.90

t

-1.68-0.703.111.76

-0.020.89

-2.54

Significanceof F Change

.10

.49.003.08

.98

.37

.01

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Developmental Pathways to Early Externalizing Problems 103

Fig. 1. Interaction between 12-month maternal responsiveness (Resp.) and 24-month rejection (Reject.)in predicting 42-month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing (Ext.) problems for boys.

equation approached significance, F(7, 78) = 1.96,p < ,08, the Persistence x Noncompliance interactionwas not significant.

One final regression was computed using the 24-month Externalizing factor with other 24-month fac-tors to examine if concurrent observed child andparenting variables add variance to the prediction of42-month Externalizing once existing problem behav-ior was taken into account. Results are presented inTable VI. The overall equation was significant, p <.001. Results indicated that, in addition to the 24-month Externalizing factor (p < .001), child sex (p <.01), rejecting parenting (p < .04), the Noncompli-ance x Rejecting interaction (p < .005), and the Non-compliance x Rejecting x Child Sex interaction (p <.008) explained significant variance. The latter two in-teractions are displayed in Fig. 2 using above- and be-low-median scores on noncompliance and rejectionshown with 42-month Externalizing for girls and boys.Mother-daughter dyads high on both noncomplianceand rejecting parenting (median t-score = 52.0) dem-onstrated 42-month Externalizing problems .6 to .8

standard deviations higher than mother-daughter dy-ads with low noncompliance and/or low maternal re-jection (median t-scores = 44 to 46). Mother-sondyads high on both noncompliance and rejectionshowed Externalizing problems (median t-score =57.5) 1.25 standard deviations higher those low onnoncompliance and rejection (median t-score = 45).As illustrated in Fig. 2, although a significant inter-action emerged between noncompliance and rejectingparenting, the significant three-way interaction be-tween noncompliance, rejecting parenting, and childsex suggested that, for girls, only the interaction be-tween high rejection and high noncompliance was sig-nificant whereas, for boys, noncompliance andrejection exerted main effects. It is important to em-phasize that the Noncompliance x Rejection interac-tion and the Noncompliance x Rejection x Sexinteraction were not significant in the original regres-sion equation, although the three-way interaction ap-proached significance. Thus, externalizing behavior at24 months acted as a suppressor effect.

Table VI. Prediction of 42-Month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing Problems Using 24-Month Factors: Hierarchical Mul-tiple Regressions; Dependent Variable: CBCL Externalizing Problems at 42 months; Overall F (8, 82) = 16.86, p < .001

Independent variable

CBCL Externalizing, 24 monthsChild's sexNoncomplianceRejecting parenting,Sex x NoncomplianceSex x RejectionNoncompliance x RejectionSex x Noncompliance x Rejection

Multiple R

.65

.70

.71

.73

.74

.74

.77

.79

R2

.43

.48

.50

.53

.54

.54

.59

.62

R2 change

.43

.06

.02

.03

.01

.00

.04

.03

B

0.69-4.690.012.67

-0.02-1.030.030.06

SEB

0.081.52

0.0071.240.012.460.010.02

Beta

0.65-0.240.130.18

-0.43-0.100.491.33

t

8.16-3.09

1.732.15

-1.69-0.42

2.942.78

Significanceof F Change

.0001.003.09.03.09

.67.004.007

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104 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Cohn, and Bell

Fig. 2. Interaction between child sex, 24-month child noncompliance (Noncorap.) and maternal rejec-tion (Rej.) in predicting 42-month Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Externalizing (Ext.) problems.

DISCUSSION

Confronted with rapid and complex changes, thedevelopmentalist is tempted to apply the same labelto different forms emerging at different times. Thepresent study was structured so that temporal linksbetween very different parent-child systems could bestudied. As can be seen, most relations across timecorresponded with what one would expect applyinga transformational perspective, particularly for boys.For boys, maternal responsiveness was related to Ex-ternalizing at 24 and 42 months, and, for both sexes,rejecting parenting at 24 months was related to 42-month Externalizing. Infant persistence and childnoncompliance also were related to later Externaliz-ing problems for boys. In terms of interactive effectsfound for boys, high responsiveness at 12 months andhigh rejecting behavior at 24 months were associatedwith median Externalizing scores at 42 months ap-proaching the borderline clinical range. For girls,main effects of predictor variables on Externalizingwere less consistently demonstrated. However, infantpersistence and maternal rejection were associatedwith Externalizing at 24 months. Furthermore, forgirls and boys, the interaction of high maternal re-jection and high child noncompliance was associatedwith Externalizing scores significantly higher thanhaving none or one of these risk factors present.

The modest linkages between responsiveness andrejecting parenting, and between infant persistenceand noncompliance, were not unexpected given thedifferences in constructs, the rapid rate of develop-

mental change between 12 and 24 months, and situ-ational factors which may affect the stability of ob-served parent-child interactions. The transition frominfancy to toddlerhood marks a developmental periodduring which parents and children must react to newdemands placed by one on the other. Children arestriving for some independence from parental con-straints, while parents are beginning to set limits onchildren's behavior. Thus, a formerly responsivemother may have difficulty managing her toddler, re-sulting in expressed frustration and hostility. Similarly,a temperamentally easy infant might become obsti-nate in the face of new parental restrictions.

The most consistent predictor of early external-izing problems across sex was maternal rejection. Italso was involved in many of the interactive effectsthat were present. Reviews of research on parentinghave indicated that maternal rejection is associatedwith children's maladjustment across a variety of do-mains. For example, children who experience rejec-tion are more likely than nonrejected children tobecome juvenile delinquents (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1986), to express aggression and hostility ininteractions with others, and to suffer from low self-esteem (Rohner & Nielson, 1978). Maternal rejec-tion implicitly involves a lack of warm and contingentcaregiving, but also includes active disdain of thechild. From a social learning perspective, in a par-ent-child dyad characterized by few parental positivebehaviors directed toward the child, rejecting parentsmight inadvertently reinforce children's oppositionaland aggressive behavior by attending only to negative

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Developmental Pathways to Early Externalizing Problems 105

behavior. The child also may learn that the only wayto stop a parent's noncontingent rejecting behavioris to act aversively enough to make the parent with-draw from confrontation, thereby increasing the like-lihood of coercive parent-child interactions(Patterson, 1982). In addition, rejected children mayfail to internalize moral values pertaining to concernfor the rights and well-being of others. Parentalwarmth has been considered an important compo-nent of children's willingness to accept messagesfrom parents regarding moral behavior (Grusec &Goodnow, 1994).

In general, sex differences were the exception,not the rule. However, they were found with respectto relations between maternal responsiveness andearly externalizing problems. In two prior studies us-ing the same measure of maternal responsivenessduring infancy (Martin, 1981; Shaw et al, 1994), lon-gitudinal relations with later externalizing problembehaviors also were found only for boys. The resultsfrom the high-chair task suggest that boys appear tobe more affected by a lack of contingent maternalresponsiveness during infancy. Although attachmenttheorists have posited that maternal responsivenessis salient in the formation of preschool- and school-age behavior problems (Greenberg & Speltz, 1988;Lyons-Ruth, Easterbrooks, Davidson Cibelli, &Bronfman, 1995), they have not recognized or hy-pothesized sex differences in infants' reactions tocaretakers. It appears that boys may be more suscep-tible to these effects than girls. Using the StrangeSituation to assess infant attachment with high-risksamples, boys have been found to be rated as inse-cure-disorganized more often than girls (Carlson,Cicchetti, Barnett, & Braunwald, 1989; Dowdell-Hommerding, Shaw, & Krieger, 1993; Lyons-Ruth,Repacholi, McLeod, & Silva, 1991), which in turn,has been associated with a higher risk of elevated ex-ternalizing problems at preschool age (Lyons-Ruth,Alpern, & Repacholi, 1993; Shaw et al., 1995). Theseresults are consistent with other data showing boys'greater vulnerability to a number of neurodevelop-mental and psychological disorders from prenatal de-velopment to school age (Eme, 1992; Gualtieri &Hicks, 1985). In this case, differences in the qualityof early maternal responsiveness appear to placeboys at greater risk for early externalizing problems.

For both girls and boys, mother-infant dyadswho demonstrated above-median scores on both fac-tors had t-scores significantly greater than those withlow maternal rejection and low noncompliance on

Externalizing at 42 months. For boys, the resultswere consistent with an additive model. For girls,there appeared to be an interactive effect. These re-sults are theoretically congruent with Patterson's(1982) model of coercive parent-child interactions.Patterson (1986) has found that it is the evolving in-terplay between inept parenting practices and non-compliant child behaviors that fuels coercive cyclesof interaction, which in turn, promote the escalationof more serious antisocial behavior. Patterson's char-acteristics of parental ineptitude involved harsh dis-cipline and low involvement, while childnoncompliant behaviors included those aversive tocaregivers (e.g., whining, yelling, and disapproval).

For boys, the significant interaction between ma-ternal unresponsiveness and maternal rejection inpredicting 42-month externalizing problems high-lights the importance of using multiple measures toassess parenting characteristics. Although it mayseem paradoxical that high maternal rejection in con-junction with high maternal responsiveness would sig-nificantly increase the risk of clinically elevatedexternalizing problems, it suggests what the respon-siveness measure assesses less carefully—the qualityof the responsiveness. That is, boys with mothers whowere highly responsive but not rejecting showed Ex-ternalizing t-scores 1.5 standard deviations belowthose in mother-son dyads where mothers were "re-sponsive" and rejecting. The responsiveness measureemphasizes the timing of the maternal responsemore than its quality; thus, it would be possible toreceive a high rating on responsiveness without pro-viding qualitatively sensitive reactions to the child'sdistress. For example, a mother could respond to theinfant's crying by yelling at him. A review of high-responsive and high-rejecting mother's behavior dur-ing the high-chair task was consistent with thisnotion. High-rejecting mothers at 24 months whowere rated as high responsive during the high-chairtask at 12 months appeared to show high reactivityand frustration with children's attention-seeking be-havior. In contrast, high responsive, low-rejectingmothers tended to be consistently warm throughoutthe high-chair task despite increasingly aversive childbehavior. Crockenberg and McClusky (1986) foundsimilar evidence for shifts toward less maternal re-sponsiveness in early infancy. However, it is also pos-sible that heightened maternal responsiveness at 12months was a reaction to persistent infant behaviorin which the mother gave up by 24 months as shebecame essentially rejecting.

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106 Shaw, Winslow, Owens, Vondra, Cohn, and Bell

It was also surprising in the case of boys thatmothers low on responsiveness and high on rejectinghad sons who showed Externalizing scores within thenormal range (median = 53.0). Theoretically, it wasexpected that the combination of inattentiveness andhostile behavior would have the most deleterious ef-fects on child outcome, promoting the developmentof greater aversive and disruptive child behavior.However, it may be that being unresponsive is alsoassociated with a low level of activity level in general,including hostile behavior. Thus, mothers who arenonresponsive and rejecting may be less active in us-ing rejecting strategies with children than motherswho are more responsive but also rejecting.

Two limitations of the study need to be men-tioned. First, though sample sizes are comparable toother investigations using labor-intensive parent-child interaction procedures, the cohort is relativelysmall when considering sex differences. This is espe-cially true for the sample of girls, for which attritionand the mode of assessment were different than forboys at 42 months. It is also important to discuss thegeneralizability of the study's findings to other popu-lations. The participants represent a low-incomecommunity sample, rather than a clinical sample. Byrecruiting families from WIC, the range of dysfunc-tion was most likely restricted, as all participatingfamilies were involved in a program designed to im-prove the quality of their children's nutritional needs.Thus, we believe our results may be limited to rela-tively high-functioning low-income families.

In summary, the results provide confirmatoryevidence that, for boys, precursors of early external-izing behavior problems can be identified in the firstand second years of life, with both parenting andchild factors making independent contributions tothe prediction of 24- and 42-month externalizingproblems. The results also support the utility of usingdevelopmentally contextual models in identifyingearly precursors of externalizing problem behavior,as evidenced by the independent contributions ofchild and parent factors at two time points. The re-sults cannot be attributed to a reporting bias, becausepredictor and outcome variables were derived fromindependent sources. Less clear are the early precur-sors of externalizing behavior problems for girls. Theonly consistent predictor of girls' externalizing thatcould not be explained by reported bias was the in-teraction between high noncompliance and rejectingparenting.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The research reported in this paper was sup-ported by a grant to Daniel Shaw from the NationalInstitute of Mental Health, grant MH 46925. Partsof this research were presented at the biennial meet-ing of the Society for Research in Child Develop-ment in Indianapolis in 1995.

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