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The current state of the VC industry in relation to other financing sources for startup firms Ekon Dr Anna Söderblom Handelshögskolan i Stockholm

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Page 1: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

The current state of the VC industry

in relation to other financing sources for startup firms

Ekon Dr Anna Söderblom Handelshögskolan i Stockholm

Page 2: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Finansieringskällor för småföretag

Page 3: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Nystartade företags

Finansieringskällor

Startups finansieringskällor

Intern finansiering & ”Bootstrapping”

Ägare, familj, vänner

Kunder, leverantörer

Bidrag

Extern lånefinansiering

Kommersiella lån och krediter

Statliga lån

Externt ägarkapital

Börsnotering

Private equity

Affärsänglar

VC

Page 4: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Definition riskkapital

Riskkapital

Public equity Börsnoterade bolag

Private equity Investeringar i onoterade

företag med ett aktivt ägarengagemang

Affärsänglar Investeringar av

privatpersoner i företag utan familjeanknytning

Venture capital Investeringar i sådd-,

startup eller expansionsfaser

Buyout capital Majoritetsinvesteringar i

mogna bolag kompletterat med lånefinansiering

Page 5: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Nystartade företags

Finansieringskällor

Owner investments 32%

Family and friends 7%

Governmental 7%

Credit lines 4%

Personal bank loan 14%

Business bank loan 15%

Business angels 6%

Venture capital 4%

Other 11%

Sources of funding for US startups Percentage of funding in USD, 2004

Internal funding 46%

External debt funding 33%

External equity funding 10%

Source: Robb and Robinson (2010)

Page 6: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Nystartade företags

Finansieringskällor

Owner investments 32%

Family and friends 7%

Governmental 7%

Credit lines 4%

Personal bank loan 14%

Business bank loan 15%

Business angels 6%

Venture capital 4%

Other 11%

Sources of funding for US startups Percentage of funding in USD, 2004

Source: Robb and Robinson (2010)

Page 7: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Owner investments 28,1%

Family and friends 6,5%

Governmental 1,6%

Credit lines 3,9%

Personal bank loan 12,1%

Business angels 4,9%

Venture capital 1,2%

Trade credits 16,7% Other debt

8,5% Other equity

3,5%

VC share in Swedish startups 2002-2009

Nystartade företags

Finansieringskällor

Source: Tillväxtverket, SVCA, Own calculations

Page 8: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Venture Capital investeringar

Några exempel

Page 9: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Venture Capital investeringar

Några svenska exempel

Page 10: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Aktuellt läge i VC-industrin

Page 11: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Dramatisk nedgång i VC

Source: DowJones

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US VC fundraising Billion USD

Page 12: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

… även i Sverige

• Dramatisk minskning

• Ökad aktivitet från DE/NO VCs

• Ökad aktivitet från icke-nordiska VCs

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Tota

l com

mitt

ed c

apita

l (m

SEK)

# of

raise

d VC

fund

s in

Swed

en

Nordic VC funds targeting the Swedish market (1983-2010)

No of VC funds Total commited capital (mSEK)

Source: Söderblom (2011), Argentum

Page 13: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Typer av VC företag

Svensk industriutveckling

Source: SVCA, Argentum, Own calculations

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Active 2002 Active 2011

Number of active VC firms Sweden 2002 vs 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Active 2002 Active 2011

Number of active VC firms Sweden 2002 vs 2011

Fund based Private

Corporate Listed on stock exchange

Governmental

Statliga & privata –

minst minskning

Minskning: 65%

Page 14: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Varför ?

Page 15: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Europa

Avkastning VC fonder

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Rolli

ng IR

Rs (%

)

European Venture Capital & public market comparators Rolling IRR

European Venture Capital Morgan Stanley Euro Equity

HSBC Small Company JP Morgan Euro Bonds

Page 16: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Sverige

Avkastning VC fonder

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Swedish avg. PE fund perf. & public market comp. Multiples

Stock price index Long-run yield index

VC fund ret, 4 y delay BO fund ret, 4 y delay

Source: Söderblom (2011)

Page 17: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Avkastning VC fonder

Framgångsfaktorer

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Retu

rn m

ultip

le

Swedish VC funds’ performances Vintage 1983-2003

Source: Söderblom (2011)

Stor varians …

Page 18: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Konjunkturs-fråga!

Icke fungerande

modell!

Page 19: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

”..a great deal of evidence to support what is now a highly developed theory of how the U.S.

VC model provides an efficient solution to this basic problem of

entrepreneurial finance.”

Kaplan and Lerner (2010, p. 36)

Konjunktursfråga

Page 20: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri

Icke funktionerande

modell

Page 21: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri 2. Minskande exit-marknader

Icke funktionerande

modell

M&A 42%

IPO 58%

US VC Exits: '91 - '00 US VC Exits: '01- '09

Source: NVCA

Page 22: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri 2. Minskande exit-marknader 3. Förändringar i underliggande industrier

Icke funktionerande

modell

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cloud services market size Billion USD

Page 23: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri 2. Minskande exit-marknader 3. Förändringar i underliggande industrier 4. För långa investeringstider

Icke funktionerande

modell

Page 24: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri 2. Minskande exit-marknader 3. Förändringar i underliggande industrier 4. För långa investeringstider 5. Extraordinär situation runt år 2000

Icke funktionerande

modell

Page 25: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

1. Överdimensionerad industri 2. Minskande exit-marknader 3. Förändringar i underliggande industrier 4. För långa investeringstider 5. Extraordinär situation runt år 2000 6. Institutioner lämnar tillgångsklassen

Icke funktionerande

modell

Page 26: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Utveckling i två riktningar?

Super angels Boutique VCs

Konsolidering Färre men större

VC-företag

Page 27: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Policyrekommendationer

• Djupare förståelse för VC-industrins utveckling • Bredda fokus till andra finansieringsformer! • Holistiskt synsätt • Fördjupad forskning

– Svenska småföretags finansieringskällor? – Relation finansieringskälla – företagsutveckling? – Negativa effekter av tidig finansiering?

Page 28: The current state of the VC industry...Nystartade företags Finansieringskällor Owner investments 32% . Family and friends 7% . GovernmentalCredit lines 4% 7% . Personal bank loan

Frågor/Funderingar?

[email protected]