The Concept of the “CLIOS Process”: Integrating the study of physical and policy systems

using Mexico City as an example

Presentation to the Engineering Systems Division Symposium

March 2004

Co-Authors:Rebecca S. DodderJoseph M. SussmanJoshua B. McConnell

Overview

• Defining CLIOS• Need for a new process• Overview of the CLIOS Process• Mexico City as an example of the CLIOS

Process• Relation to other tools and processes• Additional applications• CLIOS as a systems approach

Defining CLIOS• Complex

– The system is composed of a group of interrelated units (subsystems)

• Large-scale– Impacts are large in magnitude, and often long-lived and of

large-scale geographical extent• Integrated

– Subsystems within CLIOS are, closely coupled through feedback loops

• Open System – CLIOS explicitly include social, political and economic

aspects

CLIOS and Engineering Systems

• CLIOS can describe many different systems, including natural and social systems

• The systems of most interest to us are Engineering Systems, a special case of a CLIOS in which technology plays an important role– Technology can define system boundaries– Technology can be the integrator of the system– Technology can generate a large-scale impacts on the state

and “performance” of the overall system

• A CLIOS can also incorporate several technological subsystems

Motivation for a New Process

• “Nested complexity” – Physical system is “nested” inside a policy system– Both are complex and interdependent– Must understand the structure of each, in order to understand

overall CLIOS dynamics

• A variety of tools and processes must be employed– Quantitative engineering and economic models for the

physical system – More qualitative institutional, organizational and stakeholder

frameworks for the policy system– Integration of physical and policy system analyses

Motivation for a New Process

• Growing number of interdisciplinary analyses of complex systems, often with little guidance on theoveral structure of those analyses

• We need a disciplined way of studying a complex policy situation– Linear, step-by-step, yet iterative mechanism– It is pretty easy to miss something - routinizing the process

can help (but is not a guarantee)

• The CLIOS Process is one (but only one) way

CLIOS Process: Three Phases

• A CLIOS representation (Phase 1) is created and analyzed with reference to both its “structure” and “behavior”

• Then, in the design and evaluation (Phase 2) and implementation (Phase 3) phases, one can:– Measure the system’s performance along its

various dimensions– Identify and implement strategies for system

improvement, given the system problems and goals that motivate the analysis

CLIOS Process:12 Steps

5. Seek Insight about System Behavior

6. Identify Performance Measures and Refine System Goals

7. Identify & Design Options for System Performance

Improvements

8. Flag Important Areas of Uncertainty

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4A. Describe Components 4B. Describe Links

10. Design Strategy for Implementation

11. Identify Opportunities for Institutional Changes and Architecture Development

12. Post-Implementation Evaluation and Modification

9. Evaluate Options and Select Robust Ones that Perform “Best” Across Uncertainties

3. Develop the CLIOS Diagram: Nesting, Layering, and

2. Identify Major Subsystems

1. Describe System: Issue and Goal Identification

Example: Representing Mexico City• Diagrammatic approach to the

representation phase• Helps avoid the omission of

salient factors • Sets up the structure/dynamics

at various levels of detail

Electric Power

Public Transport Investment

Environment

Metro Share

Private Auto Share

Productivity

Private

Foreign

Investment

Bus/Taxi/ Colectivo

Share

Fleet Fuel I&M

Mode Choice

Congestion

Fleet Fuel I&M

Economic Development

Population

Land Use

Auto Ownership

Investment

Human Health

Policy

Aggregate Transportation

Demand

GDP/cap & income

dist.

Quality of Life

Policy

Macro- Economic

Factors

Infrastructure Expansion

Environment

Land Use

Transportation

Economic Activity

Institutional Change in CLIOS

• Institutional changes can be an important part of the overarching strategy for implementation

• Create, strengthen, or break, weaken certain connections between the policy and physical systems

• Redefine the relationships between actors on the policy sphere– Flows of data, resources, approval, ideas, goals...– Lines of control or coordination– Hierarchical or flat organizational and inter-organizational

relationships– Cooperation or conflict

Example: Institutional Change in MC

• Mexico City provides a clear example of how changes in the physical system can impact the types of policy-institutional structures that are needed to manage certain issues.

• The urbanized area has progressed beyond the Federal District across state boundaries to the State of Mexico, and more recently, to the State of Hidalgo.

• In this manner, the physical system changes generated a tension across the policy sphere, which necessitated new institutions at the metropolitan-level.

CLIOS Process: Supporting Tools

• A high-level “meta-process” for moving from initial problem definition, to design, evaluation and implementation of solutions for a CLIOS

• The CLIOS Process serves as an organizing framework for the lower-level tools and processes– The 12-Step Process tells you what to do– The how is left up to the analyst(s)

• Range of possible tools, from various perspectives, used to carry out the CLIOS Process:– Technical/engineering– Economic/financial– Organizational/institutional/political/social

CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree

• The CLIOS Process can be thought of as a Christmas Tree, with the various processes and tools used in the analysis comprising the ornaments hanging on the tree.

• Structure of the “tree” stays constant, while the choice of “ornaments” hanging on the tree varies to suit the taste or needs of the user

• In interdisciplinary teams,– Each member can chose their processes and tools– Yet, they remain conscious of where their work fits within

the overarching structure of the 12 steps

CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree

Source: Ali Mostashari

Mapping to Tools and Process

Mapping to Tools and Process

Mapping to Tools and Process

More Applications

• Strong emphasis thus far in transportation systems– Applied in a range of contexts

• Mexico City: Transportation and Air Quality• Malaysia: Public Transportation• Regional Strategic Transportation Planning (RSTP) (Sussman/Sgouridis)

– Explored the interactions of transportation systems with environmental, IT, land use, and other physical subsystems

• Future work• Application to additional Engineering Systems--telecom, energy,

national missile defense and others• Methodological advances, ex: stakeholder involvement in modeling

(Mostashari/Sussman)

CLIOS Process as a Systems Approach• Qualitative as well as quantitative factors ü Necessary step if systems thinking is to be applied to social and political

systems

• Not searching for a system optimumü Focuses instead on the tradeoffs and uncertainties that are more

characteristic of the political process

• Explicitly includes the policy world as a part of the system ü Recognizes changes to existing policy structures as possible and

sometimes necessary

• Clear, comprehensive and structured process for moving from analysis to implementation within a single system frameworkü Yet, allows flexibility in the use of a range of tools and processes to

carry out the actual analysis