The Community Coordinated Modeling

Center:A Brief Overview

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Lika Guhathakurta

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov

“A US multi-agency partnership to enable, support, and perform the research and development for next generation space

science and space weather models”

CCMC

Facilitate Community Research

SupportModel

Transition to Operations

DoD and NOAA Space Weatherneeds

CCMC Goals

International Research Community

Goals:

- One stop shopping for modern space science models- Easy access to modern models for non-experts- Simple-to-use, unified interfaces- Advanced, tailored visualization tools- Continuous improvements through user feedback

CCMC Functions: Research Support

• Through www-accessible run results

• Through runs on request (>1000 now),

- magnetospheric models

- ionospheric models

- heliospheric models

- solar models

• No cost to (international) user

Service

A. Chulaki, L. Rastaetter, M. Goldfarb

Solar Models

• Potential Field Source Surface (Luhmann, UCB) - Global solar magnetic field structure

• MAS (Linker et al – SAIC) – Global solar magnetic field and plasma structure

P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter

Density, flows

Solar/Heliospheric Models

WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge) – PFSS corona + ‘potential’ current sheet + empirical kinematic solar wind

Heliospheric Models

• ENLIL (Odstrcil – NOAA) – 3D MHD model of inner heliosphere ( 30rs – 10AU) .

• Exospheric Solar Wind Model (Lamy/Pierrard) – 1D kinetic model of solar wind solution along a coronal hole fieldline.

• Heliospheric Tomography (Jackson,Hick –

UCSD) – Constructs global mass and velocity distribution from a simple kinematic model and assimilation of radio

scintillation data.

Testing : Sun to Earth

PhotosphericSynopticmagnetograms

WSA – potential field + equatorial current sheet model (1-21.5rs)

ENLIL - 3D MHD Heliosphere (21.5rs – 1,2 or 10AU)

Running in realtime,

collab. With CISM

P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter

Magnetospheric Element

CCMC_CCMC_031307_SH_1.isosurface.mp4

Magnetospheric Models

•BATSRUS (UMich) – 3D global MHD models of magnetosphere •Fok kinetic Ring Current and

Radiation Belt Models ( 2RE – 6RE) .

also executing in real time

Magnetospheric Models

LFM MHD modelCMIT 1.0CISM collaboration

OpenGGCM MHD modelJ. Raeder collaboration

science quality resolution

Ionospheric Models

•Electrodynamic (MHD ionospheric modules)•Empirical (Weimer statistical)•SAMI 2 meridional ionosheric (Huba, NRL)•CTIP global ionospheric (Fuller-Rowell et al, NOAA)

M. Kuznetsova, L. Rastaetter

NmF2

ne

Runs-On-Request System Usage (as of Aug 2006)

Executed runs:Solar & Heliosphere : 128Global magnetosphere: 607Inner magnetosphere: 97Ionosphere: 166

Total: 998 runsNow > 1300! 0

200

400

600

800

1000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total runs projected for the remainder of 2006

Solar and Heliosphere

Ionosphere/Thermosphere

Inner Magnetosphere

Global Magnetosphere

cumulative run execution

Decision makers and operational agencies need model evaluations

- Science-based validation: Compare model output to measurements for select events, detailed analysis

- Metrics studies: Repeatable comparison between model output and measurements, “one number”

Need to be blind studies, performed by independent agent

CCMC Functions: Transition to Ops

V&V: Software Predicting MeV Electron Intensity

Comparison of Actual vs. Predicted Fluxes

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

7/17/20057/24/20057/31/20058/7/2005

8/14/20058/21/20058/28/20059/4/2005

9/11/20059/18/20059/25/200510/2/2005

Date

Electron Intensity (>2MeV)

GOES data

Flux Prediction

Persistence Model

Recurrence Model

Average Flux

• Quiet vs stormy period

Evaluated model: Software predicting MeV electron intensity at the geostationary orbit Developed at: APL/UPOS Input: real-time ACE data Output: polar cap potential Considered for operations at AFWA

Reference Model

Skill Score

Whole interval

Quiet Stormy

1-day persistence

-0.3544 -0.3864 0.2355

Mean 0.2041 0.2294 0.2047

27-day recurrence

0.2935 0.2468 0.3629

V&V: ENLIL Model Preliminary Evaluation

Velocity Velocity DensityDensity

TemperatureTemperature Magnetic FieldMagnetic Field

Plots of ENLIL output (blue line) vs real-time ACE data (red)

Skill scores for ENLIL as a function of persistence interval

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

0 50 100 150 200

Interval (hours)

Skill score

• Support the generation of advanced space science models• Collaborate with related activities (CISM, CSEM…)• Expand strong service to (international) research community

– Execute runs-on-request– Provide ready access to model output with enhanced tools– Includes mission support, e.g., STEREO, THEMIS– Includes campaign support, e.g., IHY– Interested in international partnering

• Expand model base, e.g., – UCB ANMHD model– DeVore ARMS – DeForest Fluxon model– Nonlinear force-free model

• Serve models developed under LWS and NASA/NSF partnership• Driven by user feedback

Future Activities: Research Support