CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling

Center) Support for RBSP

Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Space Weather Laboratory

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Yihua Zheng, Michael Hesse, Masha Kuznetsova!and the CCMC Team!

Outline

•  CCMC goals and activities

•  CCMC contribution to space science research

•  CCMC involvement in space weather services/tools

•  iSWA (Integrated Space Weather Analysis) web-based dissemination system

•  How CCMC can support RBSP mission in both scientific research and space weather application •  Can help with pre-launch RBSP virtual runs and post-launch event

analyses •  CCMC can serve RBSP RT data on iSWA •  CCMC can ingest them into suitable assimilation models, such as

DREAM. •  We will use the data for SWx services to NASA missions and for

model validation •  Outlook

CCMC

Facilitate and Advance Community Research

Address National Space Weather Needs

NASA, DoD and NOAA

CCMC Goals

Mission Support

Mission Support

RBSP

CCMC Activities

•  Make modern space science models available to the research community

•  Evaluate scientific research models for both scientific research and space weather purposes -  Validity

-  Robustness, reliability •  Participate in the development of advanced models

•  Develop real-time systems that can be applied to operations

•  Develop Space Weather tools

•  Support NASA space weather situational awareness •  Participate in space science/space weather education

Fok RC Fok RB CRCM RCM WINDMI

LFM GUMICS SWMF / GM+IM+IE OpenGGCM

Weimer CTIP TIEGCM AbbyNormal USU-GAIM SAMI2 IRI MSESE

ENLIL

Heliospheric Tomography

WSA

SWMF-IH SWMF-SC

MAS

ANMDH

CCMC Models Cover the Entire Domain

Solar/SW Monitors

PFSS

EMMREM DREAM

CCMC team consists of scientists with modeling expertise spanning the entire domain, capable of making modifications (working together with model developers) necessary to address outstanding science questions.

CCMC: Scientific Research

CCMC provides, to the scientific community, access to modern space research models

•  through an automated request system for model runs •  through modern, online, visualization and analysis

tools •  through standard data formats for simulation data

downloads CCMC tests and evaluates models

•  as an unbiased agent •  against standard metrics •  through event studies, and through real-time

calculations •  in support of the needs of science users and space

weather forecasters

CCMC: Scientific Research continued

CCMC Supports community wide modeling challenges.

•  CCMC has presence in CEDAR workshop – started June 2009 - CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (CETI) Challenge

•  CCMC is an active participant in GEM Modeling Challenges

•  CCMC has started modeling challenge for validating the Solar-Heliosphere models

Space weather services at SWL

Space Weather Desk providing the latest space weather information to all

NASA missions

Solar Shield System Safeguarding national power

grids

Led by Antti Pulkkinen

Collaborations in Space Weather

Arena Collaborations with AFWA

Collaborations within NASA And with others

CCMC: Space Weather

iSWA Innovative SWx

dissemination system All has CCMC’s involvement

M. Maddox, D. Berrios iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

ISWA has more than 200 products including modeling results and comprehensive sets of observational data.

Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Post-Impact Analysis

Marlo Maddox

Models that are of direct relevance to RBSP

SWMF Model: T. Gombosi et al. (CSEM)

•  Stand-alone RBE with TS05 model – running in real time •  SWMF/BATSRUS+RCM+RBE – running in real time too

Glocer et al., 2009 •  SWMF/BATSRUS+CRCM+RBE (almost ready for delivery to

CCMC – Alex Glocer) •  DREAM (Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model) –

J. Koller

•  SWMF/BATSRUS+Fok Ring current model – real time •  SWMF/BATSRUS+RCM – run on request, works on making it

running in real time mode •  SWMF/BATSRUS+CRCM (one-way coupling running, two way

coupling is almost done) N Buzulukova et al., 2010 – a joint effort between the author and CCMC

RBE Fok et al., 2001

Different visualization plots from real-time runs

Kinetic convection-diffusion model

Coupling between RBE, MHD, RCM/CRCM

Glocer et al.,[2009]

This approach:

•  Good for taking care of boundary conditions in terms of plasma source populations – dayside plasma entry

•  Substorm injection physics Loading and unloading – Kuznetsova et al., 2007 Taktakishvili, et al. 2007 Taktakishvili, et al. 2008

• Better description of global magnetic field

/CRCM

A plasmasphere model (DGCPM) is already included.

Courtesy: J. Koller

RBSP datasets

Assimilation models (DREAM)

Ingest RBSP observations into suitable assimilation models

Other Relevant Models: Connectivity Product

Monitor Earth-Sun Magnetic Connectivity and Proximity to Active Regions

•   Monitor active regions and proximity to foot-point locations of the earth

•  View future projections of active regions and foot-point locations

•  Available in different EIT wavelengths

A SEP Model: Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE)

Posner et al., 2007

SOHO LASCO C3 RD Images

•  Time of CME Arrival •  Measure of Uncertainty •  Magnitude of Impact

Enlil Cone Model "

CME Arrival Prediction

Other Relevant Models: ENLIL cone model: CME prediction "

Models: Enlil, WSA, N. Arge, D. Odstrcil

•  Typical error: +/-5 hours •  vs. Standard model error:

+/- 8hours

Models that are relevant to RBSP

Magnetopause position: S/C orientation Updated every 4mins ~45min forecast Model: SWMF

Kp model based on Newell et al. coupling function

CCMC Support for RBSP

Research: Through event studies

The diverse models at CCMC can provide a broad context from the Sun to upper atmosphere – the big picture

provide comparisons among different models or model combination

Through model validation and model metrics study

Any other means RBSP needs

Space Weather: Provide space weather info/forecast to RBSP operations and/or science team if interested via our space weather desk service.

CCMC Support for RBSP

CCMC can serve RBSP RT data on iSWA

CCMC can ingest them into suitable assimilation models, such as DREAM.

We will use the data for SWx services to NASA missions and for model validation

Flexible in providing the visualization format(s) that meets RBSP needs

M. Maddox, D. Berrios iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

RBSP data and associated virtual RBSP products can become part of iSWA.

RBSP-CCMC: Mutual Benefits

•  By working together, CCMC would benefit from model improvement/advancement for the near-Earth region that RBSP could potentially bring.

•  Real-time RBSP data will be invaluable for enhancing CCMC’s space weather service capabilities.

Outlook

•  CCMC aims to facilitate science research by enabling the whole community’s easy access to advanced models and serves as a tool by which science progress at NASA, NSF, AFOSR, ONR feeds into Space Weather operations

•  CCMC has unique experience in both areas •  CCMC has trusted relation with model owners •  RBSP, as a LWS mission, will provide unprecedented insights into

the dynamic processes of the radiation belts, which is a critical region of space that has significant space weather impacts.

•  We look forward to fruitful collaboration between CCMC and RBSP – both for pre- and post- launch periods.

•  Look forward to collaborations with ERG, ORBITALS, RESONANCE, ground observations and any of you in the audience. Let us know how we can help. We’d like to have real-time data that is relevant to SWx and interested in new models.