the commercial nuclear power industry don lincoln principal nstone corporation
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The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Don Lincoln Principal nStone Corporation. September 2011. Agenda. History Current Status What Went Wrong Other Issues – Chernobyl, Fukushima, & High Level Waste Comparison of Current Plants and New Potential New Units Drivers for the Resurgence - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry
Don LincolnPrincipal
nStone Corporation
September 2011
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Agenda1. History2. Current Status3. What Went Wrong4. Other Issues – Chernobyl, Fukushima, & High
Level Waste5. Comparison of Current Plants and New6. Potential New Units7. Drivers for the Resurgence8. Small Modular Reactors9. The Future
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1. History
1942 First sustained and controlled fission reaction
1946 Formation of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) with a civilian branch
1954 Atomic Energy Act allows private ownership of nuclear reactors
1954 AEC initiates the Power Reactor Demonstration Program
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1. History
CP-1 Critical December 2, 1942University of ChicagoStagg FieldSquash Court Under West Grandstand
Squash Racket
Racquetball Racket 4
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1. History
CP-1 Critical December 2, 1942University of Chicago
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1. HistoryAEC - Power Reactor Demonstration Program - 1954
Loc Net Mwe Type Start ClosedBig Rock Point MI 67 BWR 65 97BONUS PR 72 BWR 64 68CVTR SC 17 PHWR 63 67Elk River MN 23 BWR 64 68Fermi 1 MI 61 LMFBR 66 72Hallam NE 75 LMGMR 63 64LaCrosse WI 50 BWR 69 87Peach Bottom-1 PA 40 HTGR 67 74Piqua OH 12 OCR 63 66Pathfinder SD 59 BWR 66 67Shippingport PA 60 PWR 57 82Dresden 1 IL 200 BWR 60 78Yankee MA 175 PWR 61 91
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Hallam1. History
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Piqua Nuclear Power Station
1. History
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1. History - 1978Nuclear Steam Supply (NSS) Vendors
1. Westinghouse – PWR 952. Combustion Engineering – PWR 233. Babcock and Wilcox – PWR
134. General Electric – BWR 605. General Atomic – HTGR 1
Total Units 192
Reactor Licensing Process1. Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, PSAR
(construction license)
2. Final Safety Analysis report, FSAR and Technical Specifications(operating license)
Units On-Order, Under Construction, or Operating
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1. History – March 28, 1979
Three Mile Island – 2, Harrisburg PA
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2. Current Industry Status104 Nuclear Units Operating Today
1. PWR 692. BWR 35
Average Capacity Factor (2010) – 91.1%Average O&M + Fuel Cost (2010) - $17.60 per MWh
Generation by Energy Source – 2006
1. Coal 49.0%2. Natural Gas 20.0%3. Hydro 7.0%4. Petroleum 1.6%5. Nuclear
19.4%6. Other 3.0%
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2. Current Status
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3. What Went Wrong?
Utilities projection of growth – 7 to 10 year doubling
TMI and other regulatory issues drove design changes
Massive construction schedule delays
High interest rates in late 1970s and early 1980s (1981 peak in prime rate of 21.5%)
Total project costs increased significantly
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4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986
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4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986
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4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986
RBMK Currently• Now 12 Operating RBMK Units
Russia/Lithuania• 48% of Russian Nuclear Capacity in
2010• Initial Operation 1973 – 1990• Projected Shutdown 2012 - 2024
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4. Fukushima Accident – March 11, 2011
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4. Fukushima Before March 11, 2011
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4. Fukushima March 15, 2011
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4. Fukushima Accident – March 11, 2011
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4. High Level Waste
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4. High Level Waste
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4. High Level Waste
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4. High Level Waste
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4. High Level WasteBlue Ribbon CommissionRecommendations for the long term solution to managing the nations used nuclear fuel
Yucca Mountain Project
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5. Technology Comparison
Current Design New Design 27
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5. Technology Comparison
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5. Technology Comparison
**
50% FewerValves
35% FewerSafety Grade
Pumps
80% LessPipe
45% LessSeismic Building
Volume
85% LessCable
Simplification of Design Eliminates Components and Reduces Cost
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6. Potential New Units
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Owner Location COL No Units Type Notes Market CapNRG Energy South Texas 2011 2 ABWR Cancelled $5 BTVA/NuStart Bellefonte, AL 2012 1 AP1000 DelayedDominion North Anna, VA 2013 1 2019 USAPWR $26 BEntergy/NuStart Grand Gulf, MS 1 ESBWR Suspended $13 BEntergy Riverbend, LA 1 ESBWR Suspended $13 BDuke, Lee South Carolina 2012 2 2021 AP1000 $23 BProgress Harris, NC 2011 2 AP1000 ? $13 BProgress, Levy County Florida 2011 2 AP1000 ? $13 BSouthern Vogle, GA 2011 2 2016 AP1000 $32 BConstellation (UniStar) Calvert Cliffs, Maryland 1 EPR Cancelled $6 BConstellation (UniStar) 9 Mile Pt, New York 1 EPR CancelledSCE&G V. C. Summer, SC 2011 2 2016 AP1000 $5 BExelon Victoria County, Texas 2 TBD Suspended $27 BDetroit Edison Fermi, MI 2012 1 2020 ESBWR ? $8 BLuminant Power Commanche Peak, Texas 2012 2 2021 USAPWR ?AmerenUE Callaway, MO 1 EPR Suspended $7 BPPL Corporation Bell Bend, PA 2012 1 2018 EPR $13 BFPL Turkey Point 2013 2 2022 AP1000Alternate Energy Holdings Payette, ID 2014 1 EPRTransition Power Utah, Blue Castel Project 2012 1 TBDUnannounced ? 2012 2 TBD
Total Likely To Be Built 12Total Announced 32
Estimated Cost per Unit - $5.3 B
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2. Current StatusConstruction/Operating License (COL) in ProcessConstruction/Operating License (COL) Suspended/Unscheduled
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7. Drivers for the Resurgence
Cost to Generate, O&M plus Fuel (2009) $17.60 per MWh
Average Capacity Factor – 91.1%1100 MW Nuclear PlantAverage Wholesale Price of Electricity (2010 Est) $50.00 per
MWhAverage Delivery Cost (T&D) 20%Hours per year 8760 hrs per
YearAnnual Net Revenue (8760x0.911x1100x($50-$17.60)x0.8 $227,000,000Payback at a cost to construct of $1500/kW 6.6 YearsPayback at a cost to construct of $2500/kW 11.0 YearsPayback at a cost to construct of $5300/kW 23.24YearsPayback at a cost to construct of $6000/kW 26.5 Years(Actual recent costs in Japan and Finland: $2300 - $2800/kW)(Estimated Costs USA: Summer $4800 – Turkey Point $4540/kW) 32
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8. Small Modular Reactors
Hyperion Power – 27 MWSanta Fe, NM
Babcock & Wilcox mPower125 MWLynchburg, VA
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8. Small reactors
GE Hitachi Prism 331 MWUnderground Containment
NuScale Power - 45 MWCorvallis, OR
Toshiba 4S - 10 MWJapan
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9. The Future
Pebble Bed Modular Reactor
ITER Experimental Fusion Reactor
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Questions?
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