the closing session of green week 2009: the road to...
TRANSCRIPT
The closing session of Green Week 2009: The Road to Copenhagen
To and Beyond Copenhagen：concrete actions and multi-track cooperation
Prof. WANG Yi, CASIPM, CHINA
2
Contents
Making political commitment to shape Copenhagen agreement Undertaking concrete actions based on respective advantagesPromotion of multi-track cooperation
3
1. Shaping up Copenhagen agreement and making political commitment
Maintaining the main channel of negotiation under UNFCCC, KP and Bali roadmapDeveloped countries: take mitigation actions based on the upper limit of IPCC proposalDeveloping countries: adopt nationally appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions in the context of sustainable development based on Bali roadmap EU, US and China: take the lead in different aspects and build up respective competitive advantages
4
Making a political decision on a CAP with high wisdom
With political commitment:commitment under the level of “dangerous anthropogenic interference”, 2℃? or total capacityallocated on “common and differential responsibility”principle long term action frameworkadaptive management
Without political commitment:Low carbon economy ?ETS/C&T or carbon tax ?new and green technology revolution ?
5
2. Taking concrete actionsCurrent proposals not achieve the goal of 2℃Developed countries: taking the lead to contribute more on mitigation, technology transfer and financingDeveloping countries: exploring their own model of low carbon development, speeding up mitigation with technology transfer and financing of MRVAddressing financial crisis and climate change togetherWhat about China?
6
China’s actionsPriorities: energy efficiency and carbon productivityCommitment: reduction of energy use per unit GDP by 20% during 2006-2010, as mandatory
1990-2005, energy intensity reduced by 50%, annually 4.4%Holistic approach and comprehensive measures10.1% reduction achieved during 2006-2008Energy-saving building, fuel economy standard Post 2010, carbon intensity target proposed, commitment to both domestic and international
7
China’s actions (cont’d)New and clean energy
Renewable: 7.5% in 2005 to 15% in 2020Nuclear power: 5% of total generation in 2020Clean coal: advanced technologies, such as SC, USC, IGCC, Poly-generation, and CCSClean vehicle: alternative fuel, hybrid, electric car, fuel cell
Carbon sink of ecosystemForest cover: 18.21% during 1999-2003 to 23% around 2020
Adaptation capacityAdaptation plan and capacity building
Green stimulus plan
8
Energy intensity target distribution by provinces during 2006-2010
A political taskCentral gov’t supervision
9
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
二氧化碳排放 (10亿吨)
EE contributions to CO2 emissions during 2006-2010
Source: CHEN, Xavier Xinhua, 2009Note: GDP growth rate at 9%
1.57 bn t CO2 reduction =
•1.93 times of German emissions in 2005 (810 Mn t CO2)
•2.85 times of Canadian emissions in 2005 (550 Mn t CO2)Energy intensity
reduction by 20%
Baseline
CO
2em
issi
ons
(bn
t)
10
Renewable and Nuke contributions to CO2 emissions during 2006-2020
01020304050607080
02468
10121416
2005 2020
Nuclear installed capacity
（GW）
Renewable Share of primary
energy (%）
750 Mn t CO2 reduction to 2020 by renewable
400 Mn t CO2 reduction to 2020 by nuke development
Xavier XinhuaNote: Renewable contributions based on IEA scenario; Nuke for Coal
China’s wind power: annual growth rate over 100% during 2004-2008
AccumulatedNewly
12 GW in 2008 20 GW in 2010, 4 times of plan in 2007 100 GW in 2020, 30 GW by plan
China’s solar water heater: account for 65% of world total
Mn m2
Source: Junfeng Li, 2009
13
China’s primary energy demand and carbon emissions by scenarios
Scenario s
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Primary energy demand (bn tce)
BaU2.189
3.438 4.817 5.658 6.202 6.657
LC 3.087 3.996 4.474 4.833 5.250
ELC 2.971 3.921 4.275 4.660 5.014
Carbon emissions from fuel combustion
(MtC)
BaU1409
2134 2779 3179 3525 3465
LC 1943 2262 2345 2398 2406
ELC 1943 2194 2228 2014 1395
Source: China Sustainable Development Strategy Study Group, China Sustainable Development Strategy Report 2009 ---- China’s approach towards a low carbon future, Beijing: Science Press, 2009Note: BaU-Business as Usual; LC-Low carbon; ELC： Enhanced low carbon
14
Strategic targets of China’s low carbon development
Projection for 2020：40%~60% reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP over the 2005 level 50% reduction of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (40-60% based on conditions)Carbon emissions: peak between 2030 and 2040 based on technology, financial and policy incentives
15
3. Exploring multi-track cooperationUnderstanding the basic law of development and challenges for cooperationPromotion of cooperation: both of south-north and south-south, such as China-EU, China-US, China-EU-US, BRIC, Newly economies
Technology transfer and cooperation list identifiedBest practice on technology, match policies, institutional arrangement, management Co-fund or core fund for TT initiated
16
S3
年份
年份
年份 T2 T3 T1
碳排放强度
人均碳排放量
碳排放总量
S1
S2
S4
Trends of Three carbon emissions peaks
Tot
alT
otal
emis
sion
Per
capi
ta
Per
capi
ta e
mis
sion
Car
bon
inte
nsity
Car
bon
inte
nsity
Year
Year
Year
17
Comparison of China/US/EU/World Carbon Intensity (1975-2005, GDP ppp in 2000 price)
18
Comparison of Per Capita Carbon Emissions(1960-2005)
ChinaUSEUWorld
19
China-EU/China-US cooperation
Mutual understanding and trustGaps and constraints Roadmap for cooperationPotential cooperation areas:
R & D & Demos: such as energy efficiency, clean coal technologies including CCS, renewable energy, smart power grid, systematic analysis tools, etc. Best practice on Low carbon economy, low carbon cityExchange experience on policy and institutional arrangements, e.g. policy package, financingImproving investment environment, both China and the other side
20
Summary
Human being’s future depends on our political wisdom to make a decision to set up medium and long term targets nowPut aside accusation, strengthen understanding and take concrete actions to cooperate We are on the same boat but different cabins, we have to take respective responsibilityFor China, we face unique and plural development challenges and there is no ready formula. China has to explore its own model and approach towards a low carbon futureLet all of us join the journey to address climate change beyond Copenhagen
Thank You !Thank You !
The Closing Session of Green Week 2009: The Road to The Closing Session of Green Week 2009: The Road to Copenhagen, Brussels, 26 June Copenhagen, Brussels, 26 June 20092009